Joba has no business pitching in high (or even medium) leverage innings yet. 

Then again, if Boone Logan has turned into a pumpkin, that may not matter.

Horrible managing. Four days after saying Joba was not there yet and will be used in lower leverage situations (after the Texas 10-6 loss) he uses him in a high one. Is Derek Lowe a short reliever? The 6th inning if not the 5th was a perfect time to use him. How many times is he gonna let Ibanez make outs against lefties with RISP?  Does he not remember getting a huge hit from Nix pinch hitting for Ibanez this past month? Did he not just see Mcgeheehee getting a pinch hit for Chavez?? ugh.

We should go out and celebrate Jeter’s milestone. First rounds on Pineda.

So who starts the wild card game - CC or Kuroda?

[4] Kuroda - CC will be throwing on flat ground.

Worry not, RLYWers, we’ll get back on the horse tonight, with Ivan the Terrible going for the Yanks.

Ohshit. We’re getting swept, aren’t we.

I was going to put a post here saying how Jeter play has justified his contract.

It still doesnt even come close even though he must have hit his 80% projection (at least) for this year.

Crazy.

[8] - It depends on how much stock you put in defensive stats.  Offensively, Jeter has been worth what they have paid him so far these first two years (assuming $4.5M per win).  If you take a win or more away for defense then he starts to lag behind.

However, he will undoubtedly win the Silver Slugger for SS this year which means he will most likely exercise his 2014 option and it would now be at least $9.5M.  If he happens to finish top 6 in the MVP vote (he has a chance), that will be another $2M.  If they give him a gold glove again (another good chance because of his offense) that’s another $0.5M. This season could cost the Yankees $4M in 2014. I’m ok with that.  Hopefully he costs them another $4M by winning MVP next year.

His t-shirt sales justify his contract.

Seriously speaking, I was always a Jeter fan but thought he was overrated.  I figured he is a top-10 SS of all time, and let’s leave it at that. Based on what he has done in 2012 and the last half of 2011 I am starting to think that he really may be the second best SS of all time.  That of course depends how much you trust fielding metrics.

Yes I know Arod WOULD have been better if he stayed at SS..but he didn’t. And if even he did, so maybe #3?

Is Ripken better than him? if so, why? Banks, Yount, Ozzie, etc….Can you make a strong case against Jeter? Using hits, OBP, Slugging, Games Played (staying healthy is a skill).

Binder’s been in a terrible slump since Oakland

Does it really depend on how much you trust fielding metrics???

Ok - so we cant put an absolute figure on it but when all metrics, scouts and fans seem to think he is a poor defender we can at least say definitively that he is a bad defender?

Big Fan

Not picking on you here cause loads of people say it - but is staying healthy really a skill?

To me its a bit like an investment manager who outperforms the average - there are loads of them around but its basically all down to luck.

Happy to be corrected if there is a study somewhere which says something different.

Well, that was a awfully predictable loss, now wasn’t it?

Since we predict that every day, every loss is predictable.

And while complaints against managing usually seem wiffly and subjective, I really there’s a case to be made against Girardi lately, yesterday being typical. His pinch-hitting (& non-pitch-hitting) and also pitcher-changes (and non) have been called out in advance here, and for concrete performance-based reasons, on a regular basis. And yes - significantly more often, I think, than was the case before this stretch. That could be subjective bias, of course, but I’m seeing it in a stretch where they’re playing at around a 100-win pace.

[10] IDK why you want to use all those stats.  Use FanGraphs and split it up any way you want.  I agree that ARod isn’t above Jeter at SS…he has almost half his WAR at 3rd and that puts him well behind Jeter, as well as other numbers.

So…by WAR Jeter is 6th…if you exclude ARod but include George Davis who played over 1300 game at SS but also played about 700 games at other positions.  If you want to exclude fielding entirely (and also things like non-SB baserunning which isn’t available for most of history), Jeter is 2nd in offense (again excluding ARod).  He’s currently 4th in replacement (playing time) - I’ll exclude Young since he played so much OF.

So, he’s somewhere between 2nd and 6th.  So if we try to quantify fielding more generally…

Bill Dahlen is about 3WAR ahead of Jeter, but 27 wins of those come from defense.  So you can argue Jeter is ahead of Dahlen; Dahlen was well regarded as a defender, but TZ is making a lot of guesses about defense from back then.  So if you want to say it’s safe that Dahlen was maybe 10 wins more than Jeter instead of 27…Jeter is now 5th. 

George Davis (I’m skipping Appling for a minute) is similarly 28 wins ahead of Jeter on defense, but he’s 9 WAR ahead.  Still, if you’re uncomfortable going much more than 10 win difference, maybe Jeter is ahead of Davis, and is now 4th. 

Appling was much closer to Jeter, being about 17 wins on defense and 7 WAR.  Maybe you close the gap to 6 or 7 wins with Appling.  Now they’re about tied…but since we’re arguing for Jeter, we’ll say Jeter will probably out-WAR Appling shortly.  Now he’s 3rd.

So finally Ripken…Ripken didn’t get much value as a 3B, so we’ll treat him as a SS entirely.  Ripken was 31 wins better on defense.  So maybe we’ll say 13 wins is what we’re comfortable with.  18 wins still puts Ripken about 4-5 wins ahead of Jeter.  So…

I think if you really make some stretches for not trusting defense - using FanGraphs - Jeter is maybe the 3rd best SS in history, with a chance to surpass Ripken as #2 if he finishes his career strong.  I’d feel more comfortable saying Jeter will pass Dahlen and be the 5th best in history.

What I find amazing is how underrated Jeter is offensively.  Would anyone have guessed he is top 20 all time in oWAR?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_off_career.shtml

[16] I’m a little surprised yes.  But, oWAR I believe isn’t just “offensive” WAR.  It is everything except defense.  So he’s been worth 90 wins more than a replacement-level SS, not including defense.  If you do Adjusted Batting Wins, for example, he’s 153rd.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/abWins_career.shtml

Still damn impressive.

Irishy

I can’t quantify ‘staying healthy’ but doesn’t it seem there are some guys who keep missing time and others who don’t? Maybe staying in good shape reduces injuries? Or maybe, like many athletic skills it is something you are born with. 

Whatever it is, Jeter has it and someone like Larkin not as much. (And Larkin is a HOFer in my book, as well as the actual HOF.) And it helps a team if you get to keep at bats away from the likes of Ramiro Pena and Alvaro Espinoza.

[17] - So the difference between SB and base running (let me know if there is anything else I’m forgetting) bumps him from 153rd to 20th?

Never mind, Adjusted Batting Wins doesn’t account for position, it adjusts for league average.

[13, 18] I don’t think that health is a skill, more of a talent that a player either has or doesn’t have. Lack of a health talent can be mitigated to an extent through preventative action, but will never make up for natural durability.

[13, 18, 21]
There almost certainly is a natural durability quotient, but wouldn’t any numbers be hopelessly biased by the kind of injuries that have nothing to do with that? Major injuries often have nothing to do with that, they’re not infrequently sheer accident.

[13, 18, 21, 22] There is definitely something natural-born for staying healthy.  Some people just naturally have more fragile bones, weaker connecting tissue, etc.

I think there’s something of a “skill” also as staying in better shape probably helps, as does good nutrition, etc.  And sometimes style of play.  E.g. Brett Gardner going all out in the field may save another 2-3 runs over an otherwise equally skilled OF.  But if he gets hurt, he’s costing the team.  On the other hand, Bobby Abreu’s average to walls may cost his team a few runs, but keeps his bat in the lineup.

And finally…sure major injuries suck, and likely have nothing to do with genetics or skill or whatever.  But…they happen.

[23] depends on the major injury. Breaking a bone diving for a ball probably has nothing to do with a “health talent” but ARod’s hip issues are completely genetic.

Nick Johnson.

[25]
Ray Chapman.

Eric Chavez.  We all read the article—he does everything he can to overcome his physical limitations, and it works, but only to an extent.  We see what he can do when he plays, he’s just never been able to play a lot despite his best efforts.  The effort he puts in is the “skill”, but he has to overcome a negative “talent”, if that’s the best way to put it.

[27] Eric Chavez is an interesting case, did he always have a poor health talent, or is his poor health talent a result of a freak injury?

[28]  Unclear.  I went back to the WSJ article, which says he injured his back at 19 in the AFL, and later had other disc problems.  Of course disc problems can be caused by trauma, but people can also be prone to them—case in point, me.  So that’s a bit murky.

[29] yeah, maybe he was predisposed to back issues, maybe he was just unlucky. there’s no real way to know.

[24]  So since there’s no way to know for sure all we can really do is credit people for time played.  Even if they’re just luckier than other players to not get major injuries, still credit them.  After all, if a player seems to be particularly lucky with hits falling in during a given year, we still credit them for it.

inherited talent, skill, luck…who cares? when looking back at a players career the fact that he was able to stay on the field for 15+ years almost all the time gives him more value than someone with better rate stats who could not. In this way Jeter has added value over other “better” SSs, though I guess not Ripken

In this way Jeter has added value over other “better” SSs, though I guess not Ripken

Right.  That value is captured in his WAR totals.  Really the only question for WAR and Jeter is how much you trust the defensive #‘s.  Over the course of a career, I’ll probably just take them straight.  Or you could ignore them entirely, but then you get Ozzie Smith as a poor player.  Or do whatever you want in between as long as you are generally consistent.  I think right now Jeter is somewhere in between the #3 and #10 (some evidence argues Jeter is *worse* defensively than UZR claims) best SS in history.  With the chance to move up a few more places if he keeps hitting like this.  Clearly a HOF.

So Mike Axisa posted something Heyman wrote, that Swisher will be looking for Jayson Werth money this off-season (7/126).  Axisa’s limit is 4/52 for Nick, I’d go a little higher at 4/60.  Either way, if he’s looking for Werth $$‘s or years…by Nick.

[29] And me, but mine was trauma.  Still haven’t had surgery yet despite the recommendation.  I don’t even take painkillers or even advil - but I have two large herniated discs in my neck.  I don’t know why I don’t feel much pain if at all.  The disc at C5-C6 was noted on the MRI report as a little incredulous (reevaluate patient for pain on left side). Health is a weird thing.

Recklessness does play into injuries, though, as posted above with Brett Gardner. Steve McNair was built like a freight train, but the guy had zero ability to deflect hits properly and spent a lot of time on sidelines recovering.

[34] Fangraphs thinks he will get something akin to Ethier’s contract of 5/85.

[36]  That seems like an overpay, for Ethier or Swisher.

[37] Swisher is better than Ethier, but not as good as Werth was, I wouldn’t want to pay Swisher 85+ MM, but he’s certainly going to get more than 4/52, probably more than 4/60.

Joke of a ballpark.