The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:

Monday, October 9, 2017 Yanks bank early runs to force G5 with Tribe

Luis Severino struck out nine over seven strong innings, Aaron Judge mashed a two-run double and Gary Sanchez homered as the Yankees rolled to a 7-3 win over the Indians on Monday night in Game 4 of the American League Division Series.
The win evened the best-of-five series at 2-2, forcing a winner-take-all Game 5 on Wednesday night at Progressive Field in Cleveland.

Even though the Yankees kicked Kluber’s ass in Game 2, they’re unlikely to do that again, so they’ll need CC Sabathia to revisit some of his Game 5 magic from the 2012 ALDS to get to the ALCS this year. I suspect that we’ll also see Chad Green coming in VERY early on, at the slightest sign of trouble from CC. Then expect multiple innings for Kahnle, D-Rob and Chapman. Maybe an inning from Gray, as well.

Going to Game 5 is better than not going to Game 5, so let’s hope that the Yankees can make it to the ALCS (they’ve already made it father than the Red Sox, which is always nice).

--Posted at 10:23 pm by Brian Cronin / 134 Comments | - (0)


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Great game from Sevy kahnle and the indians defense!

So if we lose game 5 we can spend all winter complaining about Girardo and the game 2 fiasco.

But at least we don’t have dusty baker

Right. Denbo is gone. Cashman and Girardi might be on the way out. Think you want to see a new GM and manager because anyone else might be better?

Denbo might hurt.  I doubt Cashman is going anywhere.  Girardi, well, who cares?

I’m of the mindset that Girardi is still better than most of the other options out there.  I’ll live with the ‘enemy I know’.

Also: best revenge for not winning the division - getting further in the playoffs.

Is CC instead of Gray serious?

We already won the ALDS but Selig ordered a 6th game.

Is CC instead of Gray serious?

CC just pitched well against the Indians and they have a goodly amount of lefties while Gray looked bad in Game 1. Plus, CC will be on regular rest. So it makes sense to me.

[4] Seems like the best answer. Is there any other manager out there currently you’re dying to have? Maddon or Tito don’t seem to be going anywhere. Cloning Billy Martin likely not an option for various technical and ethical reasons.

I have nothing to say but: Go Yankees

Remember 96!

I don’t trust Gray.  CC has been pretty good this year, already won a playoff game in Cleveland, and is motivated.  He could make me look like an idiot but his stats this year are pretty similar to Gray’s. 

And Gray seems to have a PB/WP propensity.

No great options for game 5, just gotta hope that Kluber’s a little off and our pen is really sharp.

Been a good one in Phoenix but it unsurprisingly sounds like LA East in the stands.


Losing Denbo will hurt if Levine takes over [LOL], or more likely has a say in the replacement. There aren’t a lot of guys who can do that job well, they’d better hire good.

Girardi to the Marlins? Cashman? A Jeterian Triple Play?

Hopefully Cashman stays.

I don’t see how Cashman could possibly leave, as the fruits of his labor are just starting to pop up and he gets to get all the credit when they blossom.

Plus, of course, there’s no way that A. money is an issue for Cash and B. if money were an issue, the Marlins would outbid the Yankees.

Sonny should be pitching. You go with your best as often as you can. You don’t get cute. Francona/the Indians Front office got cute with Kluber and it should have cost them. This series should be over with him only pitching one game, but they were let off the hook.

I can’t believe they traded for Sonny thinking, “There is no difference between him and CC.”

Also, I know it’s late, but where did Bird’s game 3 HR land? Two friends were arguing, one said 3rd deck, one said 1st deck and I looked but I honestly can’t tell at all.

[18] Second deck, deep.

I think I heard the distance was 395 ft

(8) do you remember billy Martin versions 2,3,4,5? He was not a good manager and a terrible person. I take Girardo over him 8 days a week.

Cashman needs to stay - he made way more good deals than bad ones. Didi, hicks,  etc

Girardo? For all we know there is some guy in triple a who is better. I think there are two or three parts of managing - game decisions and ego stroking plus media handling.  hard to quantify value of each and overall impact on wins when We only see part of it.

[8] Manny Acta

CC is pitching better than Gray of late, but we know, statistically, that doesn’t hold much value. Gray is better. Period. It wasn’t even 2 months ago we dreaded a CC start. Gray will probably allow 2-3 runs in 5, but also has the upside of 6 shutout innings. CC’s upside is 5 innings of 2-3 runs.

Either way though, the SP isn’t going past 5. The goal should be twice through the lineup and 2 R or less, Gray or CC. Let Green, D-Rob, Kahnle, Chapman handle the rest- each should be game for 2+ innings. And you always have CC/Gray (whoever doesn’t start) as well.

Heck, it might make the most sense to bullpen this game. 2-3 IP from the starter, 2 IP for the relievers. Pray it doesn’t go extras and if it does, you have CC/Gray ready to roll.

I’d bet Gray is preparing as a starter in case he ends up in the game in the 1st inning.

CC’s upside is 5 innings of 2-3 runs.

He JUST gave up one unearned run to this very same Indians team and could have pitched six innings easily.

I have no issue with CC starting (which feels weird to say now that he isn’t the same pitcher that he once was).  Gray works too slowly and nibbles and his last start doesn’t inspire confidence.  Although like in [23] it may end up being a team pitching effort.

Odds that they bring back CC next year?  2 years/$30m?

[25] Depends on Tanaka and Otani, I think.

If Tanaka opts out, CC is probably going to be brought back. And Otani is the big question mark hanging over the SP market this winter.

I think they can bring CC and Tanaka back and still have room for Otani. No offense to Jordan Montgomery, but Jordan Montgomery can’t stand in the way of Otani, ya know?

Just give Monty the Cervelli in 2012 treatment. It sucks for Monty, but how can that be a factor in their determinations?

Hell, make Monty the long man and spot starter and bam, everyone wins.

Otani inherently will not make a lot of money, so money is not an issue.

[18] It looked to me like it hit the front of the third deck and dropped into the first. But I haven’t seen a real good replay and gone through it in slow-Mo.

(27) They are very clearly at the point where they should be adding high end talent, but don’t sleep on Montgomery. Effective starters that make the league minimum are a great thing to have. I’d bring Sabathia back. I also don’t think Tanaka will opt out but who knows? Has a Japanese player ever exercised an opt out?

[29] I think CC is valuable if they need a 4/5 starter. If Tanaka doesn’t opt out and the Yankees nab Otani, he doesn’t have a spot on the roster. Especially with Adams basically ready and Sheffield not too far behind.

I think CC probably returns, but it’s definitely contingent on other things.

I do think that Tanaka will opt out.

CC is looking like he’s doing a late 30s Andy Pettite thing.

If you had asked me in 2012 whether CC would age really well, I would have said definitely. That’s why I had no problem with them adding the year after he opted out. He just got here in a weird way.

He’s now pitching exactly how I thought he would pitch as an older pitcher.

Why are people so wishy washy on Monty? He had a pretty good rookie year, why shouldn’t he get better? He has one of the better curveballs in the game and didn’t I hear somewhere that he has an excellent swinging strike rate?

Useless fact about Otani: he shares a surname with the voice of Pikachu.

[33] Beats me. Monty is good.

Indians -190/Yanks +170. Total is 7.5, -115 to the over. Vegas is expecting Kluber to go out and shut them down.

Monty is a fine pitcher, but Otani, Tanaka and CC will all probably be better than him next season. He can take over from CC in 2019.

Plus, I’m sure pitchers will miss games. Monty will still get starts.

I’d offer CC 2 years/$30 million, with a $5 million buy out for year two.

I know this point gets made a lot but it’s still kinda hard to believe, but Severino pumping 100 mph fastballs into the 7th and over 100 pitches would have him as the talk of baseball 25 years ago. Now? Just a nice game for a young pitcher.

[37] If The Yankees end up with Tanaka and Otani, CC just doesn’t make sense. He does in any situation in which the Yankees don’t end up with one of those players.

Otani and Severino in the same rotation would be pretty spectacular. Could be two young aces who throw 99 like its nothing. It would be an insane coup to end up with Severino, Otani, and Tanaka going into next season, but I doubt things fall into place that neatly.

(39) Doesn’t get much play but I think this year they changed the measurement of pitches to be initial velocity instead of final or average velocity that was used previously.

Maybe feller/Ryan etc threw 105 under these measurements.

[42] Oh wow, I hadn’t heard that. Interesting.

Now that you say that, I think I saw it. I imagine we have a decent idea what the average differential is between initial and average and final? How big a difference is it?

Good luck. Obviously you aren’t there yet but if the NYY make the ALCS, I’d favor them over Houston based on pitching.

In the unlikely scenario where the Yankees make it to the ALCS, does Tanaka pitch Game 1? Then Severino Game 2? Then CC Game 3? Then Gray Game 4?

I believe it ended up being about a 1 mph difference.

[43] There’s a good documentary on Netflix called “Fastball”.


After previously using PITCHf/x to provide velocities to broadcasts and ballparks, Major League Baseball Advanced Media is instead supplying numbers from its Statcast system. The key difference is that PITCHf/x calculates velocity at a set point — usually 50 or 55 feet from the back of home plate — while Statcast measures velocity directly out of the pitcher’s hand.

Because of that difference, Statcast readings are faster than PITCHf/x by about 0.6 mph on average, according to MLBAM senior data architect Tom Tango.

SSF, you’re okay! (Imagine it’s Kyle Maclachlan/Dale Cooper saying it.)

[47] Tanaka would be on the road Game 1. In this alternate universe where CC goes 5 strong and they don’t use Gray in game 5, I think Joe might give him the nod in game 1. Then you get Sevvy on normal rest for game 2, Tanaka with extra rest at home (where he’s better on both counts) in Game 3, then you have the option of bringing back Gray in Game 4 if he pitches well or turning to CC if he doesn’t.

I think you have to roll the dice with Tanaka on the road in Game 1, so you can have him for Game 5 (at home) on normal rest. Otherwise you risk pitching him just once, which is not ideal.

Errors by opponents have been a secret Yankees weapon.

So the FS1 post game…

Anyone like it? It seems more like a comedy show than a post game show.

[41] Don’t forget about Gray.

[52/53] Houston is a HR park and I don’t think Tanaka has good numbers at Houston, which Joe def looks at it. He would pitch game 3.

So most likely Gray, Sevy, Tanaka, CC.

In the imaginary ALCS Tabaka and Sevvy would/should go game 1/2.

[24] I didn’t realize it was just 1 ER but I think saying he could have pitched 6 easily is a stretch.

End of the day, regardless of Gray/CC, I think the goal will just be 2x through the order or 5IP and then bullpen time, unless CC is absolutely dealing.

What kind of deal could Tanaka get if he opted out? His season was average overall, maybe less than average. I know the FA class isn’t good, but still, how much more could he expect if he rolls the dice.

You guys, ALCS. Sheesh.

[55] Alex ripping Eyedrops is fun, but other than that, it’s a big nothing.

50: heh smile I’ve got a couple days to lick my wounds, then I can maybe consider watching what should be a great ALCS.

[53] If any Game 1 starter only pitches in the series once, the problems go deeper than how the rotation is lined up. Or so well it’s a moot point.  I have a hard time imagining a four- or five-game ALCS, regardless of who wins tomorrow.

I didn’t realize it was just 1 ER but I think saying he could have pitched 6 easily is a stretch.

He was 1 out into the sixth already and had retired 12 of his last 13 batters. Getting through six didn’t seem like it was much of a stretch (I still would have gone to Green when they did, just noting that CC COULD have easily gone six).

What kind of deal could Tanaka get if he opted out? His season was average overall, maybe less than average. I know the FA class isn’t good, but still, how much more could he expect if he rolls the dice.

I think he could very possibly get 6/$120 million on the open market, compared to 3/$63 million which he’ll get if he opts in. But that’d be the high end of what he would get, so maybe better to just take the bird in the hand.

[64] He’s 28 and has averaged 3.2 fWAR over his last four seasons (22nd in baseball). And I think that’s a pretty good baseline for him going forward.  At $8m per win, that would probably work out to around $140-150m over 6 years taking him out to 34 years old. Factor in the scarcity of a good starting pitcher and subtract the elbow concerns and yeah, that’s probably a good starting point so I could see him opting out easily.

Was the first error really an error, Castro smoked that?

Yeah, it was a tough call calling it an error.

Enjoy this. They went out and won those two games. Didn’t feel so good two games ago.

I think we can all remember an offense that needed time to really get started in the postseason, but once it did…

I legit don’t get which team you’re referring to.

[65] I don’t think we can just handwave away the elbow concerns.  Going long-term for Tanaka is going to be a big risk for anyone.  Unless they can get him to agree to some kind of contract with a mitigation if he misses time due to the elbow, I can’t see him getting six or even five years from anyone without some kind of caveat about his health.

I recall a 2012 playoff team that never got untracked

I remember the narrative - just had to hold on until they started scoring.

But I’m not sure of the year. 2001, perhaps, where they scored 3, 0 and 1 in the first three games? But no - as I remember it, they somehow got through the first round with very little offense and took off a game or two into the second round… doesn’t ring a bell?

Tito says Encarnacion will play in Game 5.

[70] Yes, that is part of my viewpoint on Tanaka. If anyone doesn’t factor in the elbow they would be making a huge error. But then teams have been known to be dumb.

[73] Who gives up the Kirk Gibson HR? Chapman?

I’m certainly not saying that teams SHOULD lay out that much money to Tanaka, but I think it’s very likely that they WILL. Cueto got, what, 6/$130 million? And Tanaka is a year younger now than Cueto was then and their numbers are fairly comparable (and Cueto was no Iron Man in the health department himself).

No surprise, Denbo hired by the Marlins. Hope he did a good job training his assistants.

Yankees have all the momentum now if they can only keep the crowd out of the game (like by opening up a big lead) they should win easily unless they let the crowd back in the game(by coughing up said lead.)

Story on today has Jeets working to bring Posada,Pettitte and Tino to Miami.

[78] - So basically if the Yankees score more runs than they let up, they should win easily?

I’m not sure I agree with that…

I think that’s the law - you live and work in New York, you have to retire to Miami.

Good stuff Brian, can’t even begin to imagine how any editor would not publish that photo. I did not know that.  YA to Shofner was a thing of beauty when I once cared about football. Why did the 49ers give him up?

[43 & 49]  Good call on that documentary - IIRC, Walter Johnson threw pitches at the end of his career through a device with wires that triggered electricity to measure when the ball struck a metal pad a few feet after the wires, and I believe this was *over* 60 feet away, behind the plate.

I may be fuzzy on the details, watched it a couple months ago, but “Fastball” worth your time if you haven’t caught it yet. 

I believe Feller would have been clocked around 108 today (!!), and Ryan was over 100 - Chapman was in that neighborhood, and an old Walter Johnson was still hitting around 90mph way back then - Does that sound right? I wish that baseball nerds would have tried more of these kinds of experiments back in the day - the Bob Feller vs motorcycle piece was fun.

Why did the 49ers give him up?

John Brodie had taken the job from Tittle by that point, so he was a 34-year-old back-up QB when the Giants traded a top guard for him. There’s a hilarious story where both guys were pissed that they were traded for each other, as the guard felt that he was worth a lot more than a “42 year old QB” and Tittle felt that he should have netted the Niners a “name” player.

The Giants planned on him being a back-up, as well, but he soon proved otherwise.

Replaced Charlie Conerly and as I remember John Brodie also played on the PGA tour. Now I doubt I can name more than a half dozen current NFL players if that many.  At some point for me the NFL started to have too much of an air of self importance for me.

When is the deadline for Tanaka to make his opt ou decision ?

Baseball may indeed become the pastime chain?

Chain = again

I have a 1960 football card of Connerly. He looks like he is about 55 years of age

[88] I think he has to make it pretty quickly after the WS. If he opts out, the Yankees have to be given the option to offer him a QO (which they will).

I have a 1960 football card of Connerly. He looks like he is about 55 years of age

He was 40 years old at the time, but as old as 40 could be, which is to say he was “mid-century athlete 40,” which means that he was rode hard and put away wet. Ty Cobb looked like he was 60 years old when he was 35.

Besides his injures Tittle said “I knew it was time to quit, especially when I saw our other quarterback,Gary Wood was wanting to date my daughter.”

Ty Cobb age 35 season as a player/manager: .401   .462   .565, 6.7 bWAR

Dusty Baker is amazing. You would think a 75% Strasburg is preferable to a 100% Roark.

(96) which is why we have to ask who would replace girardi if he doesn’t return. there are lots of stupid managers.

Joe Maddon almost blew it in last year’s WS using Chapman with a 5 run lead in game 6 and having him gassed in game 7.

Francona I guess is good - but totally lost the Red Sox clubhouse one year.

I think teams need two managers -  one for ego stroking and one for game calling.  I always thought Don Zimmer was the game brain behind Torre. because once he left, Torre seemed to do one dumb thing after another (especially Game 5 2004 ALCS). Torre was good at egos (except Arod) and media.

Girardi is a really solid ego-less manager. He made a few fluky bad decisions in game 2 but I want him and Cash back.

What is Tanakas incentive to NOT opt out?

[99] A Japanese sense of honor and loyalty?

I do think players you can associate with a single team have a significant perception advantage. Image is important to lots of players, from Jeter to A-Rod.

I’m impressed, the Yankees didn’t lose tonight, survived for another day!

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