Murphys law, I blame you for noting that the Yanks are only losing a bunch of 1 run games.

If the collapse happens then maybe both Cashman and Girardi get canned!  One can only hope!

So is this how TWN felt last year in September?

As bad as that second inning was, I was more annoyed at the Yankees getting shut out for the last 8 innings. WOE is back.

Clearly we would have won if Ryan Dempster pitched this game for us.

You know the saying “no team is as good as it looks when they are winning or as bad as they look when they are losing”? Well, in this case I am calling for an exception.  I think they are as bad as they look.

They are an old boring team with a glass chin (one punch and they go down for the count); no single pitcher whom you can say “oh goody, TONIGHT we defintiely win”; no single hitter who is consistently good all year, except Cano (maybe).

Do you think the front office wishes that every trade we made since the 2009 WS can be undone? Anyone want to look at what this team would look like? In my opinion, much better, younger, more exciting and interesting.

I am about as mad as I’ve been since the insanity that was the 1980s.

Kurtis has to go when that contract is up. So sick and tired of watching him flail.

[6] This is a player who’s still roughly 20-25% better than the average hitter. Even if he isn’t playing at the MVP-level of 2011, he’s still one of the team’s most productive guys at the plate. Would you prefer fewer HRs and more singles?

Y’all are crazy.  Deep breaths.

[7] he’s still one of the team’s most productive guys at the plate

Unfortunately, that is true.

Is it time for interleague play again?

Frog I am trying to breathe….but even if they make the playoffs they are still a boring team.

How about we dump Stewart and bring up Frankie?  he isn’t worse and at least he pumps his fist sometimes. Maybe Joba will do that too

[7] I’m very afraid of what a 31 year old who hits .250 with 190 strikeouts will be doing two years from now if the Yankees offer him a large contract. Not to mention his abysmal defense.

[10]
But Francesca will get like all mad at him if he does that!

[11] For now he’s just in a slump.  He’ll likely start hitting again.  He’s a streaky hitter.  As for his next contract…I mentioned yesterday 4/70 should be an upper limit going forward.  That’s high, but within reason.  “Fair value” would have him earning 12 or so wins over the course of the contract, which is certainly doable.  Anything more than that I think is unreasonable.  Hopefully the Yankees don’t do that - hopefully even they don’t have to.  But in order to stay away from doing a contract like that, they’ll need some players in the minors to start looking like they’ll be ready for 2015.

I like Granderson, but I’m starting to move into the offer him a qualifying offer/let him walk after 2012 camp.  His defense has declined precipitously. He’d still probably be an average defender in LF right now, but I’m not so sure that’ll still be true in 2014+.

I don’t really care about the strike outs in and of themselves but I do think they are an indicator that his average isn’t going to get any better as he moves into his mid to late 30s.

[14] Another way to potentially rationalize letting Granderson walk is that you figure they would ideally want to resign Cano, resign Granderson, and then get into the market for another premier player.  With the 2014 payroll objective, they can realistically expect to only be able to afford 2 of those 3. So which one goes? I’ll take Cano over Granderson, and then it’s a matter of Granderson compared to whoever else might be out there and what needs they’d have after 2013.

[14] Agree. I don’t think he should get a long-term deal, because of aging concerns going forward. But I’m not sick and tired of him in the present.

I like Granderson, but I’m starting to move into the offer him a qualifying offer/let him walk after 2012 camp.

I think he’s got a reasonable team option for 2013, no?  So ideally they can get a short extension instead of the option in the neighborhood of what I suggest above.  If not, pick up the option for 2013, and then I’d say qualifying offer for 2014.  Should move Gardner to CF next year anyway.  Both makes the team better in the short term, and also gives them a year to evaluation Granderson in LF to see if he translates better (or worse) to LF defense than the average CF.  Whatever happens, hopefully the prospects progress enough that the team has options for 2014 and beyond.

They are an old boring team with a glass chin (one punch and they go down for the count)

I don’t know about “old and boring,” and I know sabremetrics would have us attribute this to luck (and let’s hope sabremetrics is right), but I agree with this point.  I’d include their issues with RISP here as well.  Just something about the character of the team that doesn’t inspire the highest confidence when they’re down and/or in big hitting situations.

No single pitcher whom you can say “oh goody, TONIGHT we defintiely win”

Given CC’s slightly off-year, I have to agree with this, too.

no single hitter who is consistently good all year, except Cano (maybe). 

I’m a bit less inclined to agree with this point.  It’s tough to complain about Cano, for example.  I think the issue with the offense is that so few of these guys hit for average.  Again, we shouldn’t care about that, but sometimes it’d be nice to see the team string a few singles and doubles together for some runs, and it seems like that rarely happens.

Do you think the front office wishes that every trade we made since the 2009 WS can be undone? Anyone want to look at what this team would look like? In my opinion, much better, younger, more exciting and interesting.

I do think this would be an interesting area to explore.  Certainly, again, it’s tough to complain about a first-place team, but it’s also becoming tough to argue that we’d rather have Granderson than Austin Jackson and Ian Kennedy at this point.  Melky would also be nice.  (I was for acquiring Granderson and against the Vazquez trade).  Montero would also have come in handy this year, despite his struggles in Seattle.

RE: Granderson… I’m in the camp that’s leaning toward letting him walk.  I’ve been really disappointed by his defense.  The game-losing play against Boston was not anomalous.  He frequently gets bad jumps on balls and fails to recover in time.  The fielding metrics reflect this.  So I’d start by thinking of him as a left fielder, which knocks away some of his value right there.

Just something about the character of the team that doesn’t inspire the highest confidence when they’re down and/or in big hitting situations.

Pretty sure they have more come from behind victories than any other team, FWIW.

I do think this would be an interesting area to explore.

Hindsight is always 20/20.  I’m sure there are plenty of other trades that you’d go back and be very happy that they made.  And others that they didn’t make that many were clamoring for, and that we’re now happy they didn’t make.

So I’d start by thinking of him as a left fielder, which knocks away some of his value right there.

Potentially does.  There’s a non-zero chance that he would transition to LF - in particular LF in Yankee Stadium - better than just the straight position-adjustment would suggest.  That is, if he’s a -20 fielder in CF now (which UZR is saying he may be), positional adjustments would suggest he’s like -10 in LF.  It’s possible however that he transitions particularly well to LF, and is really a +/- 0 fielder.  If so, he actually gets a win of value BACK.  So if he’s +3 in CF now, he’d actually be +4 in LF.

Of course, there are a lot of other factors too.  He could just be having a bad year in the field and be more like a -5 fielder in CF (around UZR last year), in which case keep him in CF and he’s back up to 4.5 wins next year (all else equal).  Or he could be just as poor in LF as CF and be -20 there as well (now he’s a 2 win player).  Definitely want to get him in LF next year and get Gardner into CF.  Should have happened when they acquired Granderson, but there’s that hindsight thing again…

I think he’s got a reasonable team option for 2013, no?

Oops, yeah.  I meant after 2013 not after 2012.

[21] That said, if they can’t work out an extension early on for him, I wouldn’t be against exploring trading him.  If for example they get Upton this off-season, having stop-gap in LF, Gardner in CF, Upton in RF is probably better than Gardner/Granderson/stop-gap, and trading Granderson can help restock the farm a bit.  An obvious counter is, “when was the last time the Yankees traded a regular player for prospects”.  But I could counter with, “when was the last time the Yankees had a restrictive budget?”

EDIT: Trading him this off-season, of course.

Is 15 million reasonable for next year for Granderson?

[23] Sure is.  At least I think so.  Per fangraphs, he was worth $31.6 million last year and projects to be worth about $13.5 million this year (and that’s if you truly believe he’s as horrific of a fielder as they have him).  Plus, for all of his flaws, it’s not exactly easy to find a CF (LF or really anyone) who can hit 40-45 HR per season.  I mean, last year only Granderson and Bautista had 40+.

[23 & 24]  Yeah I think it’s very reasonable.  The amounts quoted in [24] are also context-neutral for what he’s worth.  A win is worth more than “average” to the Yankees because of where they are on the win-curve.  He’d probably need to be about a 2.5 win player to be worth that contract.  And of course that doesn’t count how much his replacement would cost ($$ and players) or how they would do. 

As tokyo also notes, he may not be as bad on defense as the metrics are currently reporting.  I think quite clearly he’s no longer a *good* defender.  But UZR, the reliability of it as measuring skill would be equivalent of about 30-35 games of offense.  I think we know anyone can have a bad 5 weeks at the plate, that will look a LOT worse than their overall line.  If Granderson is average for rest of year, he may be more like a 3.5 win player instead of a 3 win player in 2012.