People were complaining on LoHud the other day that Teixeira’s batting average is too low. What a disappointment to have a .240 hitter that should be hitting at least .270 was the tone.

Maybe this interleague play stuff isn’t so bad.

When played in the Bronx. Then it is just a baseball game.

If played in an NL stadium, it is a bastardized caricature of a game.

Boston lost too, amazing.

Swisher getting upstaged by Teix’s stat-padding… but I will take it!

ESPNesn seems to be asserting that the townies and Phils WILL meet in this year’s world series. Nevermind which teams are currently leading the standings.

Extra Sensory Perception Network

Wait, the Yankees won the first game of a series? I’m confused.  Does this mean they must lose the next two to compensate?

Does this mean they must lose the next two to compensate?

Now we can blame someone.

Maybe this interleague play stuff isn’t so bad.

Chien-Ming Wang says hello.

[9] Still traumatized by the memory of Chien-Ming running like Yao Ming.

[1] I think my opinion on this was overwhelmingly shot down, but I’ll try it again anyway: I really wonder if the xBABIP for players who have an extreme shift put on them should be different. Those guys can hit line drives and expect them to end up as non-hits moreso than players who don’t have a shift.

I was also thinking about this in the context of understanding the difference between a shift employed against Teixiera vs no shift employed against Teixiera. The thinking there would be (very simplified) let’s say Teixiera’s xBABIP is LD+.120 with no shift, but LD+.080 with the shift. Now, you have Granderson on 1st. Do you have them steal 2nd? If he makes it, you force the shift to change (as you need someone closer to 3B so you’re not just giving up the base to Granderson).

[11] I think the problem is you are trying to get a metric adjusted situationally based on the defensive positioning. Hell, they can’t even do that with defensive metrics, much less offensive.

In order to split it out for each of the situations, you’d have to…um…create and track splits, like LHB and RHB. Except now you have to add the dimension of shift on and shift off for both L/R.

If you slice it too thin, you’ll have a bunch of small samples from which no conclusions can be drawn. How often, for instance, do they even employ the shift on Teix ? Batting L or R ? Early or Late ? With a lead ? With/without A-Rod mashing or in a slump ? With the wind blowing in, or the vortex turned on ?

The conundrum is that if all these situations are different enough to merit a different treatment, the gross metric is too broad. That’s what you’re saying. The counter is that if they’re all so different, you end up with a bunch of metrics that, by definition, are totally unrelated and you’ve lost the forest for the trees. Then you’ll want to find correlation between the submetrics to try to achieve an aggregate again, that your original position says was invalid.

I’m not saying one way or the other whether any individual split or dimension is valid/invalid. I’m just warning about overinterpretation.

[12] Yeah, I agree. It comes down to the added value that it would give you for in game decision making. However, my memory is telling me that Teixiera basically gets the shift 100% of the time unless there is a runner on 2nd or 3rd, in which case he gets semi-modified shifts in order for those baserunners to not let those guys get huge leads.

Maybe without even getting into a quantitative analysis, you could say that LD’s would turn into more hits the farther you got away from the full on shift - so, the shift with a runner on 2nd or a runner on 3rd. I suspect the change in the shift from a runner on 2nd to a runner on 3rd isn’t as big a change as the change from a runner on 1st to a runner on 2nd, so then maybe all you need is the difference in xBABIP with a runner on 1st (normal shift) vs a shift with a runner on 2nd.

... err, 100% of the time with batting left handed.

Hell, they can’t even do that with defensive metrics, much less offensive.

Actually, I believe the latest version of UZR does adjust for the shift.  That is, if a ball is hit down the 3rd base line when the 3rd baseman is playing where the SS would normally be, the play doesn’t count against him.  The most obvious example anyway, but I believe adjustments are made for other positions as well.

However, my memory is telling me that Teixiera basically gets the shift 100% of the time

I don’t think every team employs the same shift, though.  Which is one of the problems.

I’d have no problem, however, if someone who knew this stuff well could apply a generic modification.  The current “good” xBABIP formulas I think do something like, LD * .75 (roughly 75% of LD becomes hits, that’s not the exact number) + .GB * .28 + FB * .22 - HR = expected hits on BIP.  Divide that by AB-HR-SO, and you get expected BABIP.  I believe some of the better ones also apply adjustments - probably mostly on the hit % on GB - based on whether the batter is lefty/righty, speed-score, etc.  I’d be OK if we could also apply some adjustment based on a shift.

Pin, so long as there are enough instances of the statistical subclass to make a statement meaningful, I don’t see the loss.  It doesn’t compel you to forget or disregard or otherwise refuse to look at the broader statistic.
Just more information.
Of course, the “smaller” the statistic, the fewer cases you’re likely to have to work with.
In this particular case, the problem might be more one of fuzziness - is the LHB Teix shift the same as the Ortiz shift, etc.?

Speaking of shifts, what was with the righty-pull shift on ARod last night? He’s certainly a good enough hitter to just poke one through on the right side, which he did.

Here’s a great interview with Mark Newman on Nomaas.  h/t RAB

I don’t want to jinx it, but…A-Rod has really been awesome so far this year.

[18] Best line of the interview from Newman: “Pitchers are not starters or relievers.”

I see one advantage of interleague play. We might see (or experience) David Ortiz actually wear a glove, and Adrian Gonzalez, RF might invoke memories of Kevin Youkilis, LF.

I didn’t get anything out of that interview, oh well.

16) Sure, but I do think the variety of game situations is such that within one season, you can easily get to where many of your stats are sss and therefore moop.

Maybe the same adjustment Mike mentions for uzr can be used to pick out batters beating the shift, or even a non shift defensive setup. Call iit the hititwheretheyaint (HIWTA).

Pete Abe never did have a great sense of humor about himself:

“Comment From Andrew
Do you believe in the ‘Curse of Pete Abe’? The Red Sox haven’t won the division or a playoff game since you came over to the Globe.
12:16
Pete Abraham: Great point. It has been a whole year. Andrew, ask your folks how often you were dropped ion your head as a kid. I bet it was at least seven times, twice on cement.”

Scathing!

[22] What were you hoping for?

[22] Yeah, I echo John.  I mean, there wasn’t anything earth-shattering.  But I like that he explained the thought process behind many decisions, the explanations behind where they thought a lot of guys were, and also some of the numbers that they appear to be aware of for evaluating players.

I finally did my patriotic duty. And boy, was it hard to exclude Red Sox. For the first time in my life, I upped my Boston limit to 1. Which made it tough, because I still cannot stand Ortiz or the Youcker. And I didn’t want to vote for Adrian Gonzalez, particularly.

1B: Miguel Cabrera/Prince Fielder
2B: Robinson Cano/Rickie Weeks
SS: Asdrubal Cabrera/Jose Reyes
3B: Alex Rodriguez/Chase Headley
C: Alex Avila/Brian McCann
DH: Victor Martinez
OF: Jose Bautista, Curtis Granderson, Jacoby Ellsbury/Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun, Andrew McCutchen.

27)  You could vote Ortiz as the NL DH…

Phil Hughes is pitching a shutout in the 7th in Trenton

[29] Hughesday looms?

[30] I was going to request a Hughesday live-blog of the Trenton game.  Forgot.  My bad.

What will be more exciting Colon-day or Hughesday?

Or the rainout created doubleheader that will feature both in one day, creating a Huge-Colon-day?

Final line is 6.1 IP, 1R, 3H, 8K, 2BB.  I also checked and if my math is correct (used fingers so it should be), he lines up to start again on July 4th…where I just happen to have tickets to an SWB Yankees game!  Hopefully he’s promoted for that!

[33] The double-header would definitely be it!

Minus that, I’d still go for Hughesday being more exciting.

[33] how many pitches? I hope you luck out.

Final line is 6.1 IP, 1R, 3H, 8K, 2BB.

Surprise it’s easy to put up a line like that in Trenton with an 80 MPH fastball.

[33] how many pitches? I hope you luck out.

Something from my RSS feed (probably LoHud or RAB):

“For some updates from the scene, check our good friend Erik Boland’s twitter feed. Erik was in Trenton and reports that Hughes threw 88 pitches, 64 or strikes. He talked to one scout who said Hughes’ command was “much better.” Apparently Hughes was at 92 mph with his fastball, topping out at 94.”

I guess the Trenton radar adds 15 MPH.

[37] Thanks for the update.  The Scranton gun this year has been subtracting 7.  When it works at all.  I wonder if my camera can double as a radar gun…

[27] John, my ballot was almost identical, except I did vote for A-Gone for AL first baseman and I didn’t vote for Hedy Lamar to be NL third baseman.  I voted for Placido Dominguez, iirc.

[39] That’s Hedley!

[40] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Km7WD8wkb1c

Very encouraging Hughes news.

[41] Can’t see at work…I promise I’ll forget to watch it at home.

[25] I wasn’t hoping for anything in particular, but it wasn’t this:

In my personal view, we spend a lot of time and wasted energy on trying to prognosticate what a guy’s future role will be. Ultimately, the game will tell you. We went through that with Joba. There’s still people who want to argue that Joba should be a starter. It’s only an academic exercise now, but it seems to me that the game told us that he was a better reliever, even though he could start.

Wan’t sure whether to be infuriated by this:

Cervelli still would have caught every day because he knows the pitching staff. Joe wouldn’t use Montero, and there was no point using him as a backup to Cervelli.