Beating that Beckett guy is always a little more satisfying.

Following up on the game thread question about whether the Orioles have been mathematically eliminated yet, this:

http://riot.ieor.berkeley.edu/~baseball/

says not quite.  If I’m reading things right and updating correctly, they’ll be eliminated from the division race with 12 more losses, and from the wild card with 15.  Yanks’ magic numbers are 48 for the division and 42 for the playoffs.  That site should be a useful resource in a few weeks.

Montero was 3-5 with a 2B in a win against Pawtucket.

His line is now:

.277/.353/.472/.824

in less than 2 month, he raised his OPS by .200 points. yikes, Mark Teixiera like heh

I just watched The Sixth Sense for the second time, since it’s release. It’s still a fine film. M Night had so much potential.

Then that potential was realized in Unbreakable and a couple of specific scenes in Signs. That was his peak, and it has been all downhill since.

Oh, and I also did sample the KFC Double Down. Other than the undercooked bacon, disgusting special sauce, cheese that wasn’t melted, and awful stomach ache it caused, it wasn’t bad at all. Avoid at all costs.

Also, S*ck it, Beckett!

[3] What’s the plan for Jesus?

[6]  Assuming his good hitting continues this year?  I’m thinking continues out the year in AAA, starts there next year, and if he doesn’t slump early like he did this year he sees time in the show circa the all-star break.  Another big early slump probably means he gets a Sept. call-up next year or spends that whole year in AAA.

[5] Now they have the Double-liciuos sandwich.  Which has one piece of chicken on a “Hawaiian bun”, whatever that might be.  I had one… it served its purpose a a grab & go lunch in the car.

[7] I’d be surprised if he doesn’t make a short appearance in the Majors this year. He’s been absolutely murdering the league for the past 2 months.

June: 0.283   0.324   0.505   0.829   BABIP: .333 20.5% LD
July: 0.342   0.441   0.632   1.073   BABIP: .382 22.6% LD

[5] So glad I’‘m not the only person in the world that likes Unbreakable more than the Sixth Sense. Signs had some great scenes but was generally uninspired and I haven’t watched another Shamylnanana film after that.

[10] Not sure if I liked Unbreakable *more* than Sixth Sense.  But I really enjoyed the former, and think it is a very underrated movie.

[9] Not sure yet if they’ll get him PA’s in September.  Remember they would need to make a 40-man roster move to do so.  While there may be some drek on the roster that could be cleaned out easily, they may also want to keep flexibility as long as possible.  E.g. some of the pieces may be tradeable in the off-season, and/or they may want to add Jesus at the last minute.

I think it is likely he’ll start next season on the 25 man roster.  Given Jorge’s health issues, and Cervelli’s limitations offensively, they can get Montero maybe 40 starts at catcher, and 60 at DH, maybe keepting him away from particularly tough righty pitchers until he gets his feet under him.  Posada gets 100 games at C, 40 at DH.  And Cervelli gets the other 20-some, and off the bench late in the game.  Depending on how Montero does both catching and hitting, perhaps he earns some more starts at C and/or DH, get gets over 600PA instead of 400 or so.

Given Jorge’s health issues, and Cervelli’s limitations offensively

This reminds me, how are we going to feel when Cervelli catches 2 games in a 5 game playoff series?

We will be wishing for some of Valentine’s poetic justice.

This reminds me, how are we going to feel when Cervelli catches 2 games in a 5 game playoff series?

“We’ll” complain.  But then again, we’d complain if Posada started every game, so no difference.

[14] What mike is trying to say is that every thread is a complaint thread.

I prefer PANIC!

One interesting thing about Montero is that when all of the trade rumors started flying, he had 13 Passed Balls. I remember because I got into a defensive stats argument over at BBTF. Since then, he’s only allowed one Passed Ball (what would that be, a month?). If he’s made real improvement there, I think that increases his chances of getting called up since I think the Yanks will keep him down to work on his defense.

Also, Montero is throwing out 24% of runners. That is clearly a Major League caliber throwing percentage, if below average (Soto is 12th out of 15 qualifying catchers with 24%).

I think it’s clear his bat is ML ready at this point.

[3] What’s the plan for Jesus?

Trade Him for middle relief, fifth starter, or fifth outfielder/dh?

If he’s made real improvement there, I think that increases his chances of getting called up since I think the Yanks will keep him down to work on his defense.

Do you mean decrease his chance of a call up? In which case, even going to next year, and contrary to Mike, I’d say start next year in AAA, work on catching, and if Cervelli’s struggle are too awful, or a refreshed Posado is still being caught up by Father Time, then call up Montero. But barring something awful happening, if Montero needs more catching time to learn the position, I can deal with April Teix/Alex. Maybe.

Do you mean decrease his chance of a call up?

I worded that poorly, if Montero’s ability to prevent passed balls has improved, I think he has a greater chance to be called up. The Yanks want him in the minors to work on his D, if that aspect of his D has improved, I think he is closer to being called up.

I found the discussion I was talking about, on July 10th, Montero had 13 PB and had thrown out 22% of baserunners. Now, 19 defensive games later, he’s at 14 PB and 24% of baserunners. His season is now clearly in line with Posada’s 1995 (14 PB in 93 games in AAA). If he can stay hot, his PB #‘s could be the equivalent of God’s gift to catching(Varitek)‘s 1997 (15 PBs in 100 games).

I know it’s really impossible to evaluate catcher defense with the limited numbers we have, but at the least, Montero is showing improvement in those numbers.

they can get Montero maybe 40 starts at catcher, and 60 at DH, maybe keepting him away from particularly tough righty pitchers until he gets his feet under him.  Posada gets 100 games at C, 40 at DH.  And Cervelli gets the other 20-some, and off the bench late in the game.  Depending on how Montero does both catching and hitting, perhaps he earns some more starts at C and/or DH, get gets over 600PA instead of 400 or so.

Going by Mike’s assessment and CP’s call up theory. Um, looking at how the Yankees handled Posado, there seems to be little chance that if Montera is called up, he’ll spend significant time at DH. And ... how much did it hurt Posado’s defense that he spent less or sporadic time at catcher during 97? Maybe it didn’t hurt Posado. And maybe it won’t make much of a difference to Montera either.

I don’t know, I’d love to see Montera get some major league time. So I’m hoping for the best regardless. It’ll be hotly debated when the time comes, I’m sure.

I don’t think the way Posada was handled in 1997 has anything to do with how Montero will be handled in 2012.  If they really do carry three catchers next year, it will be because they want two of their bats in the lineup at the same time, not because they want two of them sitting on the bench most of the time.

[21] We’re still on 2011 right?  That’s what I’m thinking.  If they believe Posada can still catch 120+ games, Montero will start in the minors.  If they don’t believe Posada can catch that many, I don’t think they’ll let Cervelli catch 60+ games.  So they can ease Montero in, and have him working with Pena on catching (likely a good thing).  They should be able to get Montero and Posada both 400PA’s or more, and get Montero enough time behind the plate that he can continue to learn.

oops; yeah, 2011.

Anyway, they didn’t think Posada could catch 120 games in 2009, so I doubt they’re going to be looking for that in 2011.  If they go with three catchers, I’m thinking something more like 80-40-40.  Cervelli can also pinch run for the starter and catch the last inning or two sometimes.