Thursday, April 29, 2010
Yankees.com: Red-hot Cano, commanding A.J. carry Yanks
BALTIMORE—Robinson Cano continued a scorching start to the season with two homers and a double, A.J. Burnett remained in command and the Yankees completed their road trip with a 4-0 victory over the Orioles at Camden Yards on Thursday.
Stepping to the plate as the Major Leagues’ leading hitter, with a .390 batting average entering play, Cano belted a solo shot in the fourth inning off left-hander Brian Matusz and added a sixth-inning double that nudged him up to .400.
Cano then slugged his second home run—and eighth of the season—in the eighth inning off Alberto Castillo for his sixth career multihomer game.
Derek Jeter opened the game with a single and moved to third on Mark Teixeira’s double before scoring on an Alex Rodriguez sacrifice fly. In the sixth inning, Cano and Marcus Thames connected on back-to-back two-base hits that gave the Yankees a three-run lead.
That proved to be more than enough for Burnett, who remained undefeated this season after posting his third victory in five starts.
Burnett stayed in control of the Orioles lineup, scattering just three hits and walking one. He is undefeated in his last eight road starts, dating back to last seaso
Cano = really, really good.
Burnett was good too.
With the nine game road trip wrapped up, here’s how the Yankees did compared to their log5 expectations heading in.
| date | game | xW | aW | cxW | caW | W+/- |
| 20-Apr | @Oakland Athletics | 0.57 | 1.00 | 0.57 | 1.00 | 0.43 |
| 21-Apr | @Oakland Athletics | 0.57 | 1.00 | 1.14 | 2.00 | 0.86 |
| 22-Apr | @Oakland Athletics | 0.57 | 0.00 | 1.71 | 2.00 | 0.29 |
| 23-Apr | @Los Angeles Angels | 0.58 | 0.00 | 2.28 | 2.00 | -0.28 |
| 24-Apr | @Los Angeles Angels | 0.58 | 1.00 | 2.86 | 3.00 | 0.14 |
| 25-Apr | @Los Angeles Angels | 0.58 | 0.00 | 3.44 | 3.00 | -0.44 |
| 27-Apr | @Baltimore Orioles | 0.60 | 0.00 | 4.04 | 3.00 | -1.04 |
| 28-Apr | @Baltimore Orioles | 0.60 | 1.00 | 4.63 | 4.00 | -0.63 |
| 29-Apr | @Baltimore Orioles | 0.60 | 1.00 | 5.23 | 5.00 | -0.23 |
| Total | 5.23 | 5.00 | -0.23 |
xW: Expected wins using log 5
aW: Actual wins for games played
cxW: Cumulative expected wins using log 5
caW: Cumulative actual wins for games played
W+/-: caW - cxW. Negative means behind pace, positive means ahead of pace
Would’ve been nice to sweep Baltimore, but they essentially accomplished what we should have reasonably expected, only falling short by a quarter of a win.
Comments
Honorable mention to Thames, who is proving me wrong
Also, Girardi doesn’t think Po can play tomorrow “but maybe on Saturday.”
Cano has a 48 point lead in the batting race right now. He’s got a 65 point lead on Mauer.
What’s the cumulative W+/- for the whole season (not just the recent road trip)?
What’s the cumulative W+/- for the whole season (not just the recent road trip)?
Yankees should have been around 11.93-9.07 at this point of the season if the pre-season projections were accurate. So they’re still about two wins ahead of pace.
I think they’d now project to win around 98-99 games, but I’ll kick off a set of Monte Carlo simulations before I got to bed and see what it says in the morning. I’m pretty sure it’ll have the Rays as division favorites now, but probably only by a game or two.
[1] Yep. [2] That will be reversed by Mo-morial day. Sadly.
Cano is just incredible. He, like Dustin Pedroia in college, is just hitting rockets. And to do that off a sidearmer! Wow.
[4] I’m a little surprised the Rays would be favorites since they started with a prejection (IIRC) about 7 games back of the NYY and are only 2.5 ahead now, but with a much easier schedule than the NYY have had.
If Cano doesn’t go 0 fer the next couple games, he’ll end up hitting over .400 for the month, while also amoung the league leader in HR. insane
Yay Carol!
Cano with a league leading wOBA, at the moment.
Cano!
From this. One of these is not like the others.
Guess who the hottest hitter in baseball is right now (tied with Robinson Cano and Ryan Hanigan. Yes, Ryan Hanigan). It’s Tampa Bay catcher John Jaso.
Althought apparently Jaso is quite a prospect.
Remember when we all said Cano would get tons of ribbies hitting 5th in this lineup? How the hell does he have a wOBA of .510 and still only have 17 RBI (yes that is rhetorical)? Sure, RBI are very overrated. But I think getting 150 of them would go a long way to getting Robbie an MVP…
[13] Tex is hitting in front of him.
Also, he’s lazy and doesn’t play the game the right way.
Cano is doing everything he can:
Runners on: .294/.333/ .529/.863 (34 AB)
RISP: .300/.333/.550/.883 (20 AB)
Bases loaded:.000/.000/.000/.000 (1 AB)
[15] Those are still well below his regular numbers. Holy crap.
Cano, obviously, leads the majors in VORP by 3.5 points.
Marcus Thames leads the majors in EqA. He’s also out-VORPing Dustin Pedroia.
Re Cano and Pedroia, I know TotalZone isn’t the best defensive systems. It’s main advantage (I think) is that of the systems that don’t require PBP data, it is one of the better ones, allowing you to compare say Tony Kubek to Derek Jeter, if you were so inclined. But anyway, TZ thinks Cano has been above average every year but his rookie year, and averages +6/yr. A little higher on Pedroia, and if I ignore his very SSS rookie year (+1), he’s about +7/yr.
So by one objective, reasonable measure, Cano and Pedroia are roughly equal with the glove…likely TZ is off on Cano, but it is possible the problem is with the PBP data.
Missed last nights game in transit. I understand another two little old ladies were mutilated late last night. Wolf suspected.
From Jayson Stark, so take with a pound of salt (bolding mine):
Matt (DC)
Do you think Robinson Cano can keep this power and consistency up this season?
Jayson Stark (1:07 PM)
I’m all in. The only thing keeping Robinson Cano from having this kind of year in the past was that he didn’t seem to grasp the kind of day-to-day commitment you need in baseball to get the most out of your talent. I get the sense he’s turned that corner now. And if he has, he’s as talented as any middle infielder alive.
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