The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Monday, October 30, 2017

Yankees.com: Judge, Gardner among Gold Glove finalists

Yankees outfielders Aaron Judge and Brett Gardner are among the finalists for an American League Gold Glove Award, given annually since 1957 to the standout defensive players at each position in each league.

The Rawlings Gold Glove Award winners will be announced on Nov. 7 at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN. One player from each league will also be named a Platinum Glove Award winner.


Gardner is vying for his second defensive honor after taking home his first Gold Glove Award in 2016. In doing so, he became the first Yankees outfielder to win the award since Bernie Williams won four in a row from 1997-2000.


He’s competing against the Royals’ Alex Gordon and the Angels’ Justin Upton in left field.


Judge, meanwhile, can add some hardware to an incredible rookie campaign that included an AL-leading 52 home runs. The 25-year-old is a near-lock to win AL Rookie of the Year and among the candidates for the AL Most Valuable Player Award.


Judge is up against the Angels’ Kole Calhoun and the Red Sox’s Mookie Betts in right field.

Gardner has a good chance, since they love to keep giving the award to a player once they start giving the award to a player. Judge, though, should have no chance against a legit stud rightfielder like Betts (dude’s a guy who could play second or center field, of COURSE he’s a great right fielder), but hey, people like to vote for players for weird reasons, so maybe Judge could eke a win out.

In other news, Kevin Long is possibly being considered for the Yankees Hitting Coach gig, as it looks like the Yankees might just clean house. I liked Long a lot, so I’d be okay with it, but I also think Alan Cockrell seems to be doing an okay job (and I really like his assistant, Marcus Thames).

--Posted at 9:09 am by Brian Cronin / 113 Comments | - (0)

Comments

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he became the first Yankees outfielder to win the award since Bernie Williams won four in a row from 1997-2000.

Hahahahaha. Tells you all you need to know.

When Raphael Palmeiro (iirc,  starting 20 something games at first base) won a gold glove over Tino Martinez, I started ignoring the award.

The Yankees seemed to have been grooming Thames for the primary hitting coach job for a while. I’ll be a bit surprised if they let him go.

Seems like the GG voters have been doing a much better job lately. Gardner has a fair claim at the award, and Judge has a fair claim at being the third best right fielder in the league - a perfectly valid finalist.

[4] They’ve made a shift to using “SABR” stats like UZR for the award.

However, it’s not perfect. Ben Zobrist is a 2b finalist in the NL despite only having 500 innings there and being on the same team as frickin’ Javy Baez, a defensive wizard.

Not a Kevin Long fan, I think the current coaches have been doing a good job.

I’m more interested in the pitcher coach than the hitting coach because I think they can have a bigger impact.

I guess C Frazier was on MLB Radio last night talking up Rob Thompson and Josh Paul.

I think Paul is a near lock for a coaching gig (like first base, third base or a bench coach), but not the managing job. Thomson, I have no idea. He’s been in the organization so long that I don’t see how he fits in with Cashman’s new vision for the coaching staff.

[9]
Was he the catcher who dropped (or didn’t drop) a third strike that cost the the Angels a playoff series in 2005?

[10] Yeah. But he clearly didn’t drop it.

https://youtu.be/9Tn5CQ9vyYQ

[9] Yeah, Thompson seems like too traditional of a move.

Threadjumping…or the Nissan commercial with Beck’s “Girl,” which appears (lyrics are a little vague) to be about a child murder.

Kay was saying no matter how hot the temp Thompson always wore a suit and tie on road trips. Doesn’t seem like the man to achieve a relaxed atmosphere.

Apparently the managers position will be more fluid than baseball teams have traditionally done it.  The manager will be whoever has the highest WAR on the team at the time.

[12] That song is DEFINITELY about murder, no matter how much Beck plays coy that it can be “Sunshine Girl” instead of “Cyanide Girl”.

My all-time favorite instance of grossly misinterpreting song lyrics came when some dude made sure the DJ played the Toadies’ “Possum Kingdom” at his wedding. I assume the bride is stuffed and mounted somewhere now.

[15] Love the Toadies.  A few years back Fox was playing the Flaming Lips during their transitions to & from commercials, maybe last time the Red Sox were in the WS? Yeah Yeah Yeah song… so confusing.

[16] Have you heard the new album? It’s fantastic. Their best since Rubberneck.

That band puts on a really great live show, too.

Roberts had Hernandez batting cleanup because he hits LHPs and then does not hit for him when the Stros RH relievers come in despite his 156/.244/.255 split.

Is game 5 of the WS over yet?

Roberts is truly horrible as a game manager.

Sticking with Morrow after two batters was egregious.

A ton of ridiculous decisions.  Is he safe? No,he’s not safe, he’s so very not safe, he’s so not safe you wouldn’t believe it.

The Ringer: “Even when he’s made tactically curious decisions, like letting pitcher Yu Darvish bat with the bases loaded in Game 3 against the Cubs, he’s reaped dividends. Darvish walked, hilariously, and the Dodgers added an insurance run en route to a then-3-0 series lead.
But serendipity isn’t the only factor fueling Roberts’s managerial magic. He’s also making the smart call almost every time, which helps him stand out in a postseason that’s been largely characterized by managerial mistakes. But Roberts gets the little things right, and even though each decision might add just a fraction of a percent to his team’s ultimate win probability, the little things matter.”

I thought this postseason was primarily characterized by the use of umpires who have never seen a baseball game or read the rules.

As I’ve said before only a subset of MLB umpires should be allowed to call balls and strike at least in he post season.

https://www.cnet.com/news/world-series-umpire-strike-zone-bill-miller-houston-astros-los-angeles-dodgers/

Baseball games lasting 5+ hours put people to sleep. Could not believe it when it was near 1:30 PM… errrr 1:30 AM that is, and my brother was still sitting in front of the TV and the game was still ongoing. Good grief. Michael Kay was probably muttering ‘unmanageable’ in his sleep.

Also, Yankees 3-runs in 36-innings in Houston will always make many fans very sad.

Roberts HAD been doing a good job with his in-game stuff this postseason until the World Series, but holy shit, has he been bad this World Series.

Joel Sherman
@Joelsherman1

MLB has data that shows Bill Miller among top 5 umps at calling balls out of zone a strike. So, you know, lets put him behind plate for G5

We just saw 25 runs scored in a game.  How many runs would have been scored if the umpired had a tight strike zone?

[29] The correct amount ? You know, as if the game were suddenly played according to the rules and everything.

Dave Roberts is WORSE than I thought. Rich Hill 3rd PA opponents hitting 158/208/200 with 103 PAs, innings 4-6 53 innings 201/275/344. So why was he pulled after 4 innings and 60 pitches.

[31]  So he’d be fresh for the game the Dodgers get eliminated in front of the home crowd?

You know what Kershaw needs in the PS? He needs to face the Yankees, that is what he needs.

I don’t care what anyone says, if there is a game I have to win in the postseason, there is no pitcher I want more than Kershaw starting it for my team.

I might go Bumgartner 8-3 2.11 era or Verlander 11-5 3.03 over Kershaw 7-7 4.50

I mean, if we’re getting to pick, maybe Koufax or Warren Spahn or one of the deadball guys who threw a bunch of spitters.

If you’re just talking World Series Bumgarner is 4-0 0.25 era.  According to some obscure metric that involves innings pitched and runs allowed Christy Mathewson is the best.

I’d say pitching record over an entire career means more that a much smaller sample of just the post season or just the World Series.

[38] Does it though? Kershaw is going to be remembered as a great pitcher who choked hard in the biggest games of his life.  Look at how Don Larsen is revered in baseball lore, yet his career record is nothing to brag about.  I guarantee you Kershaw would trade a bunch of his regular season wins and a 100 million for success in the post-season and a ring.

Maybe not A HUNDRED MILLION dollars man…that’s a shitload of money

[39] - In terms of his reputation.  Sure.  In terms of who is the best pitcher?  Not really. 

It’s the Brady over Manning or Brady over Aaron Rodgers argument to me.  Good for Brady… but Manning and A-Rod are still FAR better.

In the end, it’s why Winfield is in the HOF and Mattingly isn’t even on the ballot anymore.

41 I agree Kershaw is the greatest pitcher of his generation but I would prefer others starting game 7.

[40 & 41] Maybe 100 million is too much - but that still leaves him with maybe 200 by the time his career is over, not counting endorsements. 

I understand why being the best pitcher is truly meaningful, but if it is always followed with “he always choked in the biggest spots”, it is still going to bother him and Dodger fans forever.  Bob Gibson, Kofax, Bumgarner, all carried their teams to titles.  And to be fair, Brady has put up otherworldy regular season numbers to go along with his post-season success, and those other guys have also had success in the post-season, so I am not sure your comparison relates to my argument.

Girardi speaks (sub required): https://theathletic.com/142232/2017/10/31/qa-with-joe-girardi-how-he-feels-about-being-let-go-by-the-yankees-and-whether-he-will-manage-again/

I read the stories about the interview elsewhere but not the interview itself.  It seemed like a very Girardi interview.  He didn’t say much, didn’t criticize anyone, but just kind of conveyed he would have like to come back.

[43] It should be known that Pedro Martinez was no great shakes in the playoffs either. Look at what the Yankees did to him in the 2003/2004 ALCS and 2009 WS. Of course he won a ring for one of the most memorable WS teams so I guess all is forgiven and no one ever remembers him as a choke-artist, even Yankees fans.

I’m still going regular season over postseason SSS and taking Kershaw over anyone because…he’s better than everyone else.

Admittedly, it’s tough to think that when he pitches “poorly” year after the year in the postseason but it wouldn’t make sense to be such a stats guy to throw it out the window because of one dude. Obviously it can never happen, but you give him and Bumgarner 500+ postseason innings and I bet Kershaw comes out on top.

Overall Pedro’s post season numbers were not as good as his regular season numbers however they wee still one run lower than Kershaw’s and some of his numbers were due to his age 37 flameout against the great 2009 NY Yankees.

[48] - Wasn’t there an 8 run 7th in Kershaw’s postseason history as well?  Thanks Mattingly.

I firmly believe that things like that would even out over time and I’m taking Kershaw.

[46-48] Pedro has a bunch of great post-season games mixed in with the bad Yankees games, in just under 100 IP.  He was 6-4 with a 3.46 ERA over his career, pitching mostly in the AL during the steroid era. His peripherals are all really close to his career norms.  Aside from the Yankees, he didn’t seem to struggle much against the rest of baseball. 

Kershaw is 7-7 with a 4.50 in the postseason(118 IP) pitching in the NL, pitching in the era of the strikeout.  Sure HRs are up, but would anyone say pitching in the NL in the 2010’s is just as hard as the AL in the late 90’s/early 2000’s? He dominates in the regular season, sure.  But look at, say 2014.  He was unbeatable that year: 21-3, Cy Young & MVP, 1.77 ERA.  He went from 6 months of that to getting destroyed in 2 NLDS games - literally his next two starts in a season when nobody could touch him, and he gives up 11 runs in 12 innings.  If that kind of thing is just a fluke, it wouldn’t have happened so often.  I looked at 2014 to see if maybe he was struggling down the stretch - he lost one game in August, was undefeated in September.  He gave up 1 HR in his last 7 starts. 

I understand SSS and that its hard to really compare regular to postseason, but its not like Kershaw has only pitched two or three games.  He has had over 100 IP over the last 9 years in October, and it seems obvious to me that he can’t control his pitches when the calendar flips.  His peripherals outside of ERA don’t look much different than the regular season - he is not walking a lot more people, his strikeout & hit rate is about the same.  The issue is that he gives up way more HRs.  As everyone knows, we look at what a pitcher can control (FIP) to get a sense of how he performs.  Kershaw is clearly making way more mistakes under the pressure of postseason play… throwing pitches that get too much plate and are summarily crushed.  Since he can suppress HRs pretty well over hundreds of innings of regular season play, week in and week out, its glaring that he suddenly can’t suppress HRs as easily when the stakes are high.  I have no way of knowing if he feels the pressure and it leads to the mistakes, but its hard to say its just a fluke when it keeps happening every time the Dodgers reach the playoffs.

[50]

Very valid and very well put. But that’s where this becomes tough. As you state, there is no way of knowing if the pressure gets to him or if it’s just a hard to believe anomaly based on SSS.

Yes, the postseason has better teams with better hitters who can put it out of the park. So I would say we would expect somewhat of a dip, but not THIS MUCH of a dip. And this is where my knowledge is tested- if the pressure is causing the HR increase, why are his other periphs the same? If he’s making more mistakes from the pressure, how likely is it they’re all in the form of the HR and not noticeable with an increase in BB, Hits, etc?

His regular season performance is against a mix of players and teams, very few of them being good enough to get to the playoffs, win a pennant, etc.

The argument being it is a different class of competition. Does anyone go back and filter the games he threw during the season against teams that made the playoffs, as constructed when he played them ?

[53] This is all very low-level and cursory, plus SSS but I took his 2017 game log and got some numbers on his opponents, like W% and team wOBA.

He had 27 overall starts, 13 against teams over .500 and 14 below.
He had 14 starts against teams with an above wOBA (~.318) (including one stretch of like 10 or so games in a row). I would assume this is to be expected, the more starts he makes the more like he is to face an average .500 W% opponent and an average wOBA.


ERA against the below average wOBA teams? 2.16
ERA against above average wOBA teams? 2.41
Average league ERA? 4.12

So his ERA against better teams is still 42% better than average. If you break it down further into SSS(!) he had 9 starts against teams with a wOBA > .330 and his ERA was 2.46. This includes starts against CLE, COL, ARI, CHC, WAS.

What does this tell us? IDK it’s a SSS(!) but he still pitches very, very well against elite offenses, albeit worse than his average numbers because…he’s facing better offenses!

Terrible situation in lower Manhattan. I hope all of our RLYW people are safe.

Right near my old high school. Terrible.

Will we never be rid of this clown? http://nypost.com/2017/10/31/david-ortiz-stirs-drama-jeter-a-rod-not-happy-with-yankees/

Also right near my old high school.

Verlander got it percolating tonight

57 Stuyvesant? Verlander was some pickup for them.

Peglegs in the house

I was at the old site however. Our strong band.

McCann the new Ron Hunt.

He’s human.

Just got home for the last inning - every strike the Dodgers throw is a ball unless an Astro swings at it.  WTF is up with that? Has it been this way the whole game?

Are we going to see Morrow? Kenley for two?

[52] When is guy is 21-3, 1.77 ERA, he is clearly pitching well against everybody.  He missed the month of April and still won 21 games. 

The Cardinals were the team in my example that hammered him in October.  he saw them once during the season, 7IP 3 runs, ND (Dodgers won the game).

He basically gave up 3 runs or less to everyone except Arizona in one game - he got hammered.  That was the only time he got hit hard all year.  If you look at teams he faced that year, its a good mix of good, average, and below average teams, what you would expect.  He didn’t face the Padres 18 times.  In an MVP season, when he got roughed up ONE time all year, he gets hammered in the post-season like a bad #5 starter.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=kershcl01&t=p&year=2014

Insurance runs are great.

Especially when they are delivered by some schlub who outperforms the presumptive MVP.

He missed the month of April and still won 21 games accumulated 21 of a meaningless statistic.

FTFY

This game is effectively over no way Kenley can blow a 2 run lead.

Plunk him again.

I loved Turner’s work in The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

#BomburOPS

These hot shot rookies all strike out too much.

Every time I see that commercial, I wonder who approved the concept.

“Our idea, and we think it’s a winner, is that Audi is the vehicle for people who live a life of crime, get snared in a sting, and then roll over on their partners to save their own ass and enter the witness protection program. But they aren’t just two-bit punks - they show their character and superior intelligence by saying they’d prefer to die in a ditch as a snitch in order to be stylish for the 2 weeks it will take before the contract is filled.

We think today’s Audi buyer identifies with rat fink snitches. This is our target demographic.”

[68] Point taken, still his accomplishments are impressive over 5 months when you consider that many other pitchers can’t even knock the cedar stick off the cross rods 15 times, no matter how many eighths you give them in a season. 

Other more relevant score downs for the 2014 season: 45+ base-out runs saved, 5.273 WPA, and his season ERA+ was the second best of his career.

Hotbox!

Go expats.

[73] *target* demographic? nice…

Game 7!!

Sandy Koufax looks fucking great!

[74] Look, he’s a fabulous pitcher. I’m just saying it isn’t so inconceivable that his performance in the postseason isn’t a mirror of his regular season stats. It is, in fact, to be expected.

Without taking anything away from him, the guy isn’t immortal. He isn’t even Mo.

Smoltz and JFB keep talking about Kershaw being available for game 7.  Its irritating how biased they are for Houston. 

Its also sad how Smoltz utters so many unsmart things every time he opens his mouth.

Every time I hear Buck, I get dumber. I lose IQ points, irrevocably.

And that’s just over TV. Imagine how dumb you’d get hanging around with him for 6 hours a day. In person. Without a fishbat or tire iron or anything.

[77] Hey I am not trying to convince anyone of anything - it seems like I am saying a lot about Kershaw but if we were sitting in a bar shootin’ the shit, this whole conversation would have taken less than five minutes. 

I don’t expect him to be unbeatable in October either - but I don’t think its unreasonable to expect him to pitch a little better than he has so far.

The question for tomorrow is: if there is a high leverage spot in the 6th or 7th inning and you have to pull your starter or first reliever, are you completely confident going to Kershaw in that spot, or would you go to your best set up guy? He’s available…

FS1 post game the worst.

If Jerry Hairston becomes the manager does is name go off the curse headline?

I think it adds to the curse. Heck, I’d even recommend dropping Hinske from the curse at that point.

Hairston, by the way, is an easy guy to get behind if he does, in fact, get the gig. He seems like a swell dude.

Buck is whatever, he’s been a national, mainstream broadcaster for a couple decades now. He’s not good, but not this awful announcer as everyone proclaims. He’s what you get when you do national games for years on end.

Smoltz though. Holy cow, is he brutal. He has to give his opinion on EVERYTHING and he does so in such an arrogant way, as if he is the authority on every topic…and then he’s always proven wrong the next pitch. The most egregious thing though was when he purely speculated that Joc struggled in the regular season because he was being selfish. He just said that, with no proof, quotes from teammates, etc. He just purely speculated that a player was being selfish. How irresponsible.

The curse reaches almost Ruthian levels if he gets the job. Or maybe he’s the only one who can break it, idk.

84 “Nice guys finish seventh,” Leo the Lip.

He’d just be Cashman’s mouthpiece, and Cash is anything but a “nice guy.” He’s also really smart, so I fully trust Cash’s view of how the team should go.

I hope Cash does not pick a manger to be his mouthpiece but someone who can work with him, believes in analytics and knows how to employ them.

I did a further analysis that IDK what to do with on Kershaw.

I used wRC+ over wOBA (and found out most teams rarely have above average offenses. So like 80% of his starts are against below-average offensive teams based on that. Wonder if might be better to use wOBA and divide/30 for an average wOBA to base below/above on).

He has 54 career starts against teams with an above average wRC+. That’s 350.8 IP and 1417 batters faced. Here are his numbers (Above average/Overall/Postseason):

K/9: 9.24/9.86/9.86
BB/9: 2.8/2.36/2.67
HR/9: .53/.6/1.37
ERA: 2.77/2.36/4.5
FIP: 2.79/2.6/3.73

So he is defintely pitching worse in the postseason than we’d expect based on his numbers against above average offenses in his career. With almost all the damage being HR allowed. As to why he allows more HR? IDK.

This isn’t the right way to do this, but the final result should be close enough, so I just summed the wRC+ of his opponents and divided by number of opponents for average wRC+ in regular v good offense and his 23 postseason appearances.

So in my regular season, good offense sample the wRC+ he faced was 104. That average for the 12 teams he’s faced in October is 101. For his career it’s 94 (and 92 against below average offenses).

I guess since the postseason is a SSS one would need to go in game-by-game and look at this deep periphs to see why the HR spike and see if it’s a fluke, bad execution, great hitting, whatever. Or just nerves/choking.

You can identify the phenomena but can’t prove the cause.

[91]. Yes, lol.

I pretty much wanted to test out newly learned SQL skills. The actual “analysis” aspect is still lacking.

Bop, I’m headed to the BC this weekend. You got any big bombs you like at Del Mar?

93 I’ll take a look or you can listen to Len Friedman’s on line seminar on the sheets.com He has been a highly successful horse player since the 70s making many big scores.  While he’ll be talking in terms of sheet analysis he will list horses he likes and/or that are value.  We also have a guy at the track Jon Hardoon.

From MiLB Even after graduating likely AL Rookie of the Year Aaron Judge, the Yankees have a startlingly deep system ready to bolster the Major League club for years to come. As a result, they edged contenders like the Braves and White Sox to capture MiLB.com’s staff selection as 2017’s Best Farm System.

Expats off to a swell start. I’m talking about Yu.

Is Smoltz worse than he was in the ALCS?

Not a real sharp start for either guy

I wouldn’t exactly say there were bad pitchers on either side. Maybe if they were willing to bring in Kershaw this early they might as well have just started him. But that’s second guessing.

Yu with a 21 era in the series.

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