So, if Pettitte stays in TX and Lee stays in TX and AJ continues to lose velo and gets worse… perhaps it would be worth fielding a rotation of CC, Hughes, Joba, Manuelos and someone else and call it rebuilding until next off-season.

I’m not sure why Cash would publicly acknowledge this before Lee makes a decision.

What does Pettitte’s decision have to do with Lee ?

Isn’t it a foregone conclusion that we need Lee ? The Pettitte retirement just affects who the number 4/5 pitchers are. What we’re trying to do with Lee is have 2 starters better than a number 3.

I’ve been pessimistic about Lee for a while. At least Jesus might be fun to watch.

What does Pettitte’s decision have to do with Lee ?

You don’t think that if it’s known that Pettitte is retiring that they will appear even more desperate than they already are, and that Lee/his agent may be more willing to press for more years/AAV?

[1] IMO if you were to choose one of the Bs to throw in the rotation, I’d probably go with Betances because his stuff is so good. But I’d rather not see any of them until the end of the season/they force themselves to the ML. throw someone like Phelps to the wolves.

The team needs Lee with Pettitte; they really really need him otherwise.

Actually, maybe if they get neither, that compels them to put Joba in the rotation, and they’ll get a cheap dominating starter.

Rich, I just don’t think having Pettitte makes having Lee any less of a necessity.

In fact, the opposite may well be true - if you’re Pettitte and once again considering retirement, maybe you’re saying “OK, if you guys get Lee and we’re going to make a serious run at it, I’m in. Otherwise, I may as well stay home if you’re just going to limp in and get run in the first round. Plus, you probably oughta get rid of that Fat Cow Joba, who’s always farting up the team bus.”

I’m just guessing on the actual wording of his inner monologue here. I don’t have any actual information.

So AJ is probably going to suck again and Andy will likely retire and Lee may stay in Texas-time to get those complaint threads revved up.

Oof…rough day, OTF.

“OTF”

I’ve been wondering where otf is (hope things are ok with him), so [10] confuses me.

He’s a Jets fan.

[checks NYT]

Oh.  Hmm, I don’t follow football at all anymore, but doesn’t everyone hate the Patriots, so shouldn’t it be “rough day, everyone”?

Is it that bad if Nova gets the last spot in the rotation instead of Andy? They could save 10 million and also will get younger and healthier. I won’t get too upset if he doesn’t come back.

[14] Not if they get Lee.

Lee/CC/Hughes/Pettitte/(AJ or Nova or…)

is very different from Lee/CC/Hughes/AJ/(Nova or ...)

and makes CC/Hughes/AJ/Nova/... unthinkable. Intollerable. Certainly unwatchable.

[14] When healthy, Andy hasn’t pitched a “last spot in the rotation” starter; he has constructively been the #2 (which is why his retirement would make Lee even more important than he already is), both in the regular season and the playoffs. I would miss Battle Cat. If that happens, however, I would like to see Joba compete for the #5 spot.

I would like to see Joba compete for the #5 spot

Me, too. For the Marlins.

But seriously, they were pretty open about having settled on Joba to the Pen. Has there been any indication they were reconsidering now that Rothschild is here, or was Eiland maybe the obstacle to that which finally fell ?

[17] No, I’m just stubborn and fact-averse.

The team needs Lee with Pettitte; they really really need him otherwise.

I just don’t get this.  Isn’t anyone concerned about the money and years this guy is going to be getting?  Isn’t any team basically going to be giving him a 6 or 7 year contract at a salary level he isn’t a good bet to earn in any more than the first year, maybe two?

I know he is the easiest solution but man, if we have a GM that can’t pull off trades to make the team and pitching better than isn’t that a bigger problem?  Maybe they won’t be as good as Lee short term but he should be able to find a cheaper, and more than serviceable option out there and seeing what some teams are giving up in trades these days it shouldn’t cost Jesus. 

I’m just concerned that handing out premium contracts for whoever happens to be the best on the market that off-season is not the best strategy.  Isn’t a large part of the reason they are so “desperate for pitching” right now (and I’m not even convinced we are very far behind the Red Sox and Rays for a playoff spot in 2011, assuming Andy comes back) is because of the ill-advised risk they took with A.J.?  Shouldn’t they learn from that and reserve those $20M per contract bullets for the rare talents that come along and hit the market at the right time and the right age?  The Beltran’s, Vlad’s, C.C’s and the Teix’s, not the Sheffields, A.J.‘s or even the talented but too old Cliff Lee’s.

And as I’m typing that up…

http://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/12156461421432832

If Lee wants to opt for the Nats because huger money trumps huge money and being in a position to win the WS every year, let him go.

Isn’t anyone concerned about the money and years this guy is going to be getting?

I am.  I was ambivalent about the Lee pursuit even at the moment he was castrating us in the LCS.  And if the Nats are inclined to do with Lee what they did with Werth, it would probably be prudent just to walk away. 

if we have a GM that can’t pull off trades to make the team and pitching better than isn’t that a bigger problem?

Well, I don’t think that’s necessarily fair to Cashman.  Who are we going to get and for what?  I suppose logical market rules would dictate that if Adrian Gonzalez is worth 3 jockstraps, then the pricetag on Greinke should not be too overwhelming (Romine and Brackman?).  But there’s always a trade tax that the Yankees must pay in personnel (it’s in the MLB bylaws or something).  Also, Greinke’s mental health thing should not be taken lightly IMO.

[21] Agreed

[19]:

1. The team needs Lee with Pettitte; they really really need him otherwise. “I just don’t get this.”

It’s really quite simple:  Lee is a lot more valuable replacing the Yankees’ no. 5 starter than he is replacing the guy (Pettitte) who has been their second-best starter over the last couple of years.

2.  “if we have a GM that can’t pull off trades to make the team and pitching better than isn’t that a bigger problem?”

Unfortuantely for this argument, one of the trades Cashman “couldn’t pull off” recently was for . . .  Cliff Lee!  Why is it better for Cashman to trade blue-chip assets like Hughes or Montero to bring back Cliff Lee-caliber talent rather than acquire Cliff Lee-caliber talent through FA (especially since acquiring such talent via trades very often requires signing the player to a massive extension (a la A-Gon))? 

3.  “I’m just concerned that handing out premium contracts for whoever happens to be the best on the market that off-season is not the best strategy.”

However, when your team’s goal is to make the playoffs something like 14/15 years and win something like 5 WS over that stretch, you’ll quickly find that there aren’t a lot of strategy alternatives from which to choose.  You have to rely on FA, your drafting/farm system, international signings, and succeed pretty handily with all three of those resources.  Fortunately, you don’t necessarily have to be perfect in the execution; mistakes happen. 

4.  “Isn’t a large part of the reason they are so “desperate for pitching” right now . . . is because of the ill-advised risk they took with A.J.?”

I don’t see it that way at all.  AJ was a big reason they won it all in 2009, so I don’t consider that signing a failure.  The reasons the Yankees are “desperate” now is because AJ is no longer seen as a solid no. 2 (except perhaps scatologically), because Andy may be retiring, because Hughes still can’t be counted on to perform as an elite starter, and because the competition in the ALE continues to demand that the Yankees go into the season with a roster that can win 100+ games.

The Pirates are an embarrassment.  Giving Kevin Correia (5.40 ERA in the pitcher’s Eden known as Petco) 2 years/$8 million.

There are always line-drawing problems when it comes to money and length, but it seems reasonable to me for the Yankees to say we don’t want Lee to get a deal tying him to us through his 39th year on the planet, and he shouldn’t get more than CC.

The reasons the Yankees are “desperate” now is because AJ is no longer seen as a solid no. 2 (except perhaps scatologically)

Heh heh.

[24] AJ is no longer a solid no. 2 “except perhaps scatologically”—hahaha!

Now Feinsand says the Nats will offer a 7-year contract to Lee.

Why the heck would the Yankees be interested in Rich Harden??

Re: Chamberlain.. (holding out hope that he can be a starter, I guess):

In the scenario that they sign Lee and don’t sign Pettite, I think Cashman’s post-2008 philosophy is to not hand starting jobs to unproven youngsters (Hughes and Kennedy’s rotation spots in 2008.) I think he’s said as much re: catching - he expects Montero to win the job, but Montero, Romine, Cervelli and Posada will all compete for the job. Without Pettite, the Yankees would need to have in house options compete for that last spot. If you start to look at likely internal options, there’s not many (in no particular order):

Nova
Mitre
Betances (40 man spot)
Brackman (40 man spot)
Chamberlain
Aceves if he resigns

If Chamberlain comes to camp prepared, I could see him winning that job.

Consider also that if the Yankees don’t get Lee and still feel they need a frontline guy like Greinke, then maybe some of those guys on that list are traded. Of course, Chamberlain could be one of them, so who knows.
`

Could the Nationals have decided to join NY and Boston as spending powerhouses in MLB?
That would be a remarkable development.
And sd… has a point, because, with this strategy, 5 years down the road you’d have 5 starters with CC money.
$130 mill in the starting rotation.

So maybe I’m merely stubborn but not fact-averse.

Hot off mlbtr’s cyber-presses:

The Nationals are prepared to offer Lee a seven-year deal, reports Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News.  But talking to two Nationals sources, Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post reports that such an offer has zero chance of happening.

[31] It’s pretty clear that out of that group of guys Joba is the best choice, since neither Brackman or Betances are ready.

But the Yankees don’t seem to care.

Unfortuantely for this argument, one of the trades Cashman “couldn’t pull off” recently was for . . .  Cliff Lee!  Why is it better for Cashman to trade blue-chip assets like Hughes or Montero to bring back Cliff Lee-caliber talent rather than acquire Cliff Lee-caliber talent through FA (especially since acquiring such talent via trades very often requires signing the player to a massive extension (a la A-Gon))?

No one liked the Lee trade earlier in the year.  That’s not the type of trade I’m talking about.  Presumably the kind of player you get back in is going to be younger.  Past the injury nexus but in his prime or about to enter it, not already on the downside of his career.  Age is the biggest problem I have with Lee.  If he was 27 or 28 it would be a completely different story.

he expects Montero to win the job, but Montero, Romine, Cervelli and Posada will all compete for the job

I thought he said Posada is the DH period.  Which explains the interest in Martin (as insurance against Montero’s failure to be ready.

Agree in principle with [24] (even more so now that edit function has made the shadings and italics go away).  But really there has to be a point where you get off the train.  And the Nats being stoopid may be just that point.  Cliff Lee is a great talent, but the weakness of the rest of the FA field is making him look better than he is.

[37] I thought he said Posada is the DH period

Yeah, I thought so, too until I read this quote on Lohud:

Cashman on Jorge Posada: “He’s our DH. That’s what he is, unless he plays himself off of it.”

Doesn’t really change the whole concept, but at least leaves the door open for Posada moving back to C (if he is playing well) or off the starting line up altogether (if he’s not hitting), depending on your interpretation of that quote.

Saw that.  And interpreted it as: he could get a demotion to part-timer, not a promotion back to full-time catcher. 

Now that I look at it again, I guess “unless he plays himself off of it” leaves the door open to previously unseen levels of defensive awesomeness.  But I doubt it.  Would they have gone to the trouble of confronting Po—and probably antagonizing him—with the new DH reality if they were still on the fence?

Anyone think throwing a mil or so at Brandon webb might be worth the minimal risk?

Lee is a slightly less good version of the Mussina the Yankees signed who is going to get paid like Pedro in his prime. Unfortunately, the Yankees need him. I blame AJ.

[39] Yeah, it’s total ambiguous and begs for a follow up question which seems to have not been asked. I took it to mean he is the full time DH unless he proves he can catch 30-40 games. I guess we’ll see what happens.

Either way, it seems like Cashman has made it policy to announce competition when rookies are involved, which is the smart move. Just a thought when thinking about rounding out the rotation.

[36]  But who has Cash missed out on, trade-wise, that he should’ve landed?  I mean, I’m sure he has missed out on some trades, but I don’t think he’s been enough of a failure in the trade dept.—as the GM of just one out of 30 teams—to justify the claim that he “can’t pull off trades.”

I get really depressed whenever I think about Joba. His stuff was on the Lincecum/Ubaldo level when he first came up. Somehow he’s ended up battling for teh 8th inning guy. The good news is, his velocity went up last year compared to 2009. The bad news is, he’s quite rotund.

[43] Same here. With the return of some of his velocity, I’d really like to see him tried as a starter again. I’m not all that concerned about his weight. Would I prefer that he were a perfect specimen? Sure, but it’s not like there’s no history of rotund pitchers being quite good. Wells and CC spring to mind immediately.

You don’t think that if it’s known that Pettitte is retiring that they will appear even more desperate than they already are, and that Lee/his agent may be more willing to press for more years/AAV?

The Yankees have no leverage with Lee, and they’ve pretty much made it known that they want him and will break the back for him.  I don’t see that Pettitte’s decision has any impact on those negotiations.  They will try to beat whatever the highest bid is, which I can’t see being influenced in any way by Pettitte.

I am not crazy about potentially signing Lee for five or six or seven years, but if the alternative is signing Crawford and trading for a pitcher I’m not sure I like that either.  I’d rather see the Yankees piss away money than talent, especially the younger talent that I’d assume they need to part with to get a good starting pitcher.

Crazy Plan C: Kerry Wood, starting pitcher. Book it.

[42] - I don’t think he can’t pull off trades.  He did well with Javy, serviceable with Granderson (although having IPK right now…), has picked up some good salary dumps.  Hopefully he is doing his job but I’d like to hear some rumors of who he is calling and why they are considered plan B.  I find it hard to imagine they couldn’t compete in 2011 with someone other than Lee.  If we are in that position then he has to take some heat for that.

[45] At what point, SG, i.e. in which year, does the contract with Lee become unreasonable?  By year seven, when he’s a 1.0 WAR player (barring injury)?

[46] Torn. rotator. cuff.

Crazy Plan C: Kerry Wood, starting pitcher. Book it.

I think Cub fans watch THAT GAME (you know the one I mean) and cry a little when they think what could have been.

I have never seen a breaking ball move like that, before or since.

The Yankees have no leverage with Lee, and they’ve pretty much made it known that they want him and will break the back for him.  I don’t see that Pettitte’s decision has any impact on those negotiations.

I think they may have leverage to the degree that Lee actually wants to play here, which I suspect he does. Obviously, he wants to extract the most money possible, but depending what the Yankees’ absolute ceiling is, I don’t agree that they necessarily have zero leverage.  Now, if they are in fact willing to go to seven years at $25m per year if a gun is put to their head, then you are correct.

Seems like it would be smart for Braunecker to leak rumors of a 7-year offer by an anonymous team.

Waiting for a shoe of any size, color, gender or style to drop.

Pettitte will be back, I have no doubt.

At what point, SG, i.e. in which year, does the contract with Lee become unreasonable?  By year seven, when he’s a 1.0 WAR player (barring injury)?

Without knowing how much a marginal win is worth for the Yankees, I’d have to POOMA it.

I guess the point where Lee’s contract is unreasonable would be defined as the point where the Yankees have paid him more than he’s earned on the field.

If we assume that a marginal win is worth about $4.5M (that’s about the price the average team is willing to pay on the free agent market, for the Yankees it’s almost certainly higher) the contract becomes a negative when $4.5M times accrued WAR < salary earned.  In Lee’s case that means any six year contract that paid him more than $16M per year would end up becoming negative.  Of course this ignores inflation and the fact that a marginal win is worth more for some teams, especially those that are on the playoff bubble.

There are a lot of variables to really answer this right (contract length, cost per marginal win, cost per season) so I’ll do a more detailed post on it.