The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Thursday, April 29, 2010

Yankee Run Values Through Games of April 28, 2010

As promised, here’s how the Yankees look in terms of YTD performance.

Player Team Lg Pos PA H 2B 3B HR BB SO HBP GDP SB CS AVG OBP SLG wOBA BR BRAA BRAR zRS uRS aRS WAR
Robinson Cano Yankees AL 2B 86 30 4 1 6 6 10 1 2 2 2 .390 .430 .701 .468 19 9 12 -2 -3 -2 0.9
Jorge Posada Yankees AL C 65 18 4 0 5 7 8 1 1 0 0 .316 .400 .649 .438 13 5 9 0 0 -1 0.8
Alex Rodriguez Yankees AL 3B 90 20 5 2 2 11 12 1 2 1 1 .260 .356 .455 .353 12 1 5 -1 2 1 0.5
Nick Swisher Yankees AL RF 78 19 4 2 2 9 16 2 1 0 0 .284 .385 .493 .382 12 3 4 1 -1 0 0.5
Curtis Granderson Yankees AL CF 79 17 2 2 2 9 16 0 0 4 0 .243 .329 .414 .327 10 1 3 1 1 1 0.5
Brett Gardner Yankees AL LF 66 18 1 1 0 7 7 1 1 9 1 .310 .394 .362 .348 10 2 3 2 -1 1 0.4
Francisco Cervelli Yankees AL C 21 8 1 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 .444 .524 .500 .462 4 2 3 0 0 0 0.3
Marcus Thames Yankees AL LF 16 7 2 0 1 2 4 0 0 0 0 .500 .563 .857 .591 5 3 3 -1 -2 -2 0.2
Derek Jeter Yankees AL SS 90 26 4 0 3 3 8 1 2 3 1 .306 .333 .459 .342 12 1 5 -5 -2 -4 0.2
Ramiro Pena Yankees AL SS 9 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 .111 .111 .111 .100 0 -1 -1 1 0 1 0.0
Nick Johnson Yankees AL 1B 78 8 2 0 1 20 20 2 1 0 1 .143 .385 .232 .318 8 -2 -1 0 0 0 -0.1
Mark Teixeira Yankees AL 1B 92 10 3 0 2 15 18 2 4 0 0 .133 .293 .253 .265 7 -4 -3 1 0 1 -0.2
Randy Winn Yankees AL RF 13 1 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 .077 .077 .077 .069 -1 -2 -2 0 -1 0 -0.3

wOBA: Weighted on-base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs, not position adjusted
BRAA: Batting runs above an average player, not position-adjusted
BRAR: Batting runs above a replacement level player, position-adjusted
zRS: Runs saved compared to an average defender using zone rating:
uRS: Runs saved compared to an average defender using UZR:
aRS: Average of zRS and uRS
WAR: Wins above replacement, calculated as (BRAR + aRS) divided by 10


Robinson Cano’s been a monster offensively this season.  Here are the AL leaders to this point.

Vernon Wells: 13.5 BRAR
Robinson Cano: 11.7 BRAR
Nelson Cruz: 11.1 BRAR
Justin Morneau: 10.2 BRAR
Miguel Cabrera: 9.5 BRAR
Evan Longoria: 8.8 BRAR
Jorge Posada: 8.7 BRAR
Ty Wigginton: 8.7 BRAR
Joe Mauer: 8.6 BRAR
Alex Gonzalez: 8.5 BRAR

Posada sneaks into this list too.

Unfortunately , Cano’s defense as reflected by both zone rating and UZR to this point takes away some of his value, although we have the standard caveats about the reliability of fielding metrics and the small sample size of 20 games that we need to take into account.

Hopefully Posada won’t need to miss too much time after being hit in the knee last night.

Would you be surprised if I told you that Cano has not been the most valuable Yankee this year?

 Player  Team Lg  Role G  GS IP  TBF H  R ER  HR BB  SO RA  ERA FIP  RSAA RSAR  FRSAR WAR
 Andy Pettitte  Yankees AL SP  4  4  28.0  109  21  4   4  0  9  22  1.29  1.29   2.70  10.5  13.4  8.0  1.3 
 CC Sabathia  Yankees AL SP  5  5  34.7  135  25  13   12  2  12  28  3.38   3.12  3.46  4.9  8.5  6.9   0.8 
 Phil Hughes  Yankees AL SP  3  3  18.0  69  6  4   4  1  11  18  2.00  2.00   3.76  5.3  7.2  3.0  0.7 
 A.J. Burnett  Yankees AL SP  4  4  25.3  107  28  10   9  1  8  16  3.55  3.20   3.75  3.1  5.7  4.2  0.6 
 Mariano Rivera  Yankees AL RP  8  0  7.0  24  3  0   0  0  1  6  0.00  0.00   2.34  3.3  4.0  2.2  0.4 
 Joba Chamberlain  Yankees AL RP  10  0  9.7  41  10  4   4  1  3  10  3.72  3.72   3.41  0.6  1.5  1.9  0.1 
 Sergio Mitre  Yankees AL RP  3  0  4.3  17  2  1   1  0  2  2  2.08  2.08   3.66  1.0  1.4  0.7  0.1 
 Boone Logan  Yankees AL RP  3  0  2.3  12  3  1   1  0  2  2  3.86  3.86   4.06  0.1  0.3  0.3  0.0 
 Damaso Marte  Yankees AL RP  8  0  4.3  21  4  3   3  1  3  3  6.23  6.23   7.58  -1.0  -0.6  -1.1  -0.1 
 Alfredo Aceves  Yankees AL RP  5  0  7.7  36  7  5   4  1  3  1  5.87  4.70   6.20  -1.4  -0.7  -0.8  -0.1 
 Chan Ho Park  Yankees AL RP  3  0  5.7  23  6  4   3  2  0  3  6.35  4.76   6.73  -1.3  -0.8  -1.0  -0.1 
 David Robertson  Yankees AL RP  7  0  5.0  26  10  6   6  1  1  8  10.80  10.80   3.80  -3.6  -3.2  0.8  -0.3 
 Javier Vazquez  Yankees AL SP  4  4  20.0  93  25  20   20  5  11  18  9.00   9.00  6.45  -9.7  -7.6  -2.7   -0.8 

TBF: Total batters faced
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RSAA: Runs saved above an average pitcher of the same role over the same # of innings, using RA.
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement level pitcher (1.2 times average RA) of the same role over the same # of innings
FRSAR: RSAR if we use FIP instead of actual RA
WAR: Wins above replacement (RSAR divided by 10)

Battlecat just keeps on keeping on.

Here’s the whole team sorted by WAR.

 Rank  Player WAR
 1  Andy Pettitte 1.3 
 2  Robinson Cano 0.9 
 3  CC Sabathia 0.8 
 4  Jorge Posada 0.8 
 5  Phil Hughes 0.7 
 6  A.J. Burnett 0.6 
 7  Alex Rodriguez  0.5 
 8  Nick Swisher 0.5 
 9  Curtis Granderson  0.5 
 10  Mariano Rivera  0.4 
 11  Brett Gardner  0.4 
 12  Francisco Cervelli  0.3 
 13  Marcus Thames  0.2 
 14  Derek Jeter 0.2 
 15  Joba Chamberlain  0.1 
 16  Sergio Mitre 0.1 
 17  Boone Logan 0.0 
 18  Player 0.0 
 19  Ramiro Pena 0.0 
 20  Damaso Marte  -0.1 
 21  Alfredo Aceves  -0.1 
 22  Chan Ho Park  -0.1 
 23  Nick Johnson  -0.1 
 24  Mark Teixeira  -0.2 
 25  Randy Winn -0.3 
 26  David Robertson  -0.3 
 27  Javier Vazquez  -0.8 


You know what’d be cool?  If Mark Teixeira and Nick Johnson stopped hitting like Randy Winn.

--Posted at 6:42 am by SG / 32 Comments | - (0)

Comments

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No, I wasn’t surprised.  I was all excited to call BattleCat as the winner, but then I see you gave the answer after the jump.  Bah!

Yankees catchers = 1.2 WAR.  Nice.

Man, Tex is having some bad luck.  I missed much of last night’s game, but one of the few things I did see was Tex drilling a liner that was caught out in LF.  He hasn’t been good, but there is a ton of bad luck in there too.

I don’t think a player of Tex’s ability can hit 75 points under the Mendoza line for a month with some seriously bad luck coming into play.  Think about that.  He goes 1 for 5 last night and RAISES his BA.

While I know it all evens out in the end, the thought that Tampa Bay now HOSTS Kansas City is quite irritating when thinking about the Yankees’ difficult schedule to start the season.

If Mark Teixeira and Nick Johnson stopped hitting like Randy Winn.

Statistically, they’re hitting about the same as Chan Ho Park. Which is to say, not at all.

thinking about the Yankees’ difficult schedule to start the season

We’ll get easy home games against the just in time for a slew of injuries so that we can lose those as well.

20 innings of 9.00 ERA gets Javy to replacement level?

Would you be surprised if I told you that Cano has not been the most valuable Yankee this year?

No.  What really suprises me is the resurgence of Vernon Wells.

[5] Seriously.  ?

20 innings of 9.00 ERA gets Javy to replacement level?

Yeah, once you factor in the Yankee bias adjustment.

Actually, it’s a spreadsheet error.  He should show as -7.6 and Robertson should show as -3.2.

I don’t think a player of Tex’s ability can hit 75 points under the Mendoza line for a month with some seriously bad luck coming into play.  Think about that.  He goes 1 for 5 last night and RAISES his BA.

I don’t know, I mean Cano had a bad full 2008 season, and based on how he’s performed outside of that season it can seemingly be attributed in large part to bad luck, or if you prefer, random chance.

The Wall Street Journal (whose sports analysis resembles the political analysis equivalent of Fox News, it appears) undertakes the age-old exercise: Who is the Greatest Yankee?.

Derek Jeter comes in at number 4, ahead of Yogi Berra (number 5) and -GASP!- Mickey Mantle, who is at number 6. Berra is at number 5. Rodriguez is at number 8, Reggie at 7. No place for Munson (sorry OTF) or Mattingly (sorry others).

That’s BS. Mantle is clearly number 3, with DiMaggio number 4. Jeter can have fun below Berra. Jackson can get off the top 10 entirely, and make room for Posada.

[11] I am with you, but if Jackson has to make room for any catcher, it is Bill Dickey.

[10] The way they define “greatest” is different than most of us would define it, I think.  I don’t know if I agree with it, but…it seems like it was almost half-stats/half popularity contest.  Mantle probably heard more boos by his own fans than Jeter so…whatever.

Mantle is clearly number 3, with DiMaggio number 4.

If we’re back on purely a stats-argument, I’m not sure if that is true.  Not the 100% anyway.  BBProj does have Mantle as 37 WAR above Dimaggio.  But 1) Dimaggio missed his age 28, 29, and 30 seasons to WW2.  Not to mention from some of the numbers I’ve seen it looks like most players who came back in 1946 had worse numbers than the years before and after). 2) Defense.  BBProj has an 89 run difference between Mantle and Dimaggio, but I also think before 1953 Rallly doesn’t compute arm and Dimaggio was supposed to have a good one.  Plus of course he makes more guesses about defense the further back he goes.

So do (1) and (2) add up to 37 wins?  Probably not.  Close enough to make an argument?  Sure, I think so.

Another reason why Mantle might be considered more popular than the article suggests is that when he was a Yankee the overall sports market was much less fragmented, so he occupied a larger place in the hearts and minds of fans.

Edit: Nevermind, I misread sam’s original post. I can’t multi-task.

Dimaggio also was likely far more hurt by Yankee Stadium than The Mick, given that the majority of the Mick’s PA came as a left-handed hitter.  I think I estimated the overall impact on Dimaggio in terms of HRs was about five per season, although some of those likely went for 2Bs or 3Bs instead.

From that WSJ article:  “There was no more confounding figure than Joe DiMaggio. His cultural cachet is off the charts. He’s been mentioned in songs by Madonna, John Fogerty and Billy Joel, was married to Marilyn Monroe and popped up in everything from Ernest Hemingway’s ‘The Old Man and the Sea’ to ‘The Simpsons.’”

How weird that they mentioned “songs by Madonna, John Fogerty and Billy Joel,” but not Paul Simon.  “Where have you gone, Joe DiMaggio?” is arguably the most famous song lyric in the history of America popular music!

“Where have you gone, Joe DiMaggio?” is arguably the most famous song lyric in the history of America popular music!

That’s true.  Correct me if I’m wrong, but Kramer also spied DiMaggio dunking his donut in a Seinfeld episode.

“I don’t know, I mean Cano had a bad full 2008 season, and based on how he’s performed outside of that season it can seemingly be attributed in large part to bad luck, or if you prefer, random chance. “

Not sure I get what you’re saying here.  Are you saying Tex hasn’t been THAT unluckly because he’s only been unlucky for a month while Cano was unlucky for a whole year? 

BTW, I would definitely say “bad luck” = “random chance.”  I certainly don’t mean to imply that Tex (or Cano, or anyone) is actually accursed.

Not sure I get what you’re saying here.  Are you saying Tex hasn’t been THAT unluckly because he’s only been unlucky for a month while Cano was unlucky for a whole year?

I was responding to this:

I don’t think a player of Tex’s ability can hit 75 points under the Mendoza line for a month with some seriously bad luck coming into play

Did you mean without instead of with?  If so, I agree.

Kramer did spy on DiMaggio. Which Madonna and Fogerty songs are those? I’ll add them to that list I had a few days ago.

Edit: The Madonna song is “Vogue,” and it’s awful. The John Fogerty song is “Centerfield.”

Ah, I see.  Yes, that was my mistake.  Nevermind.

The main question of course is how Teix and Nick slumping affect the business side of things?

The main question of course is how Teix and Nick slumping affect the business side of things?

Not much, since the Yankees have played nearly all of their games on the road so far.
Seriously, do the Yankees play all their June games at home to make up for this?

Seriously, do the Yankees play all their June games at home to make up for this?

They get all of their July games at home, just in time for the hot weather to give us a slew of DNYS stories.

Seriously, do the Yankees play all their June games at home to make up for this?

April is by far the hardest month of the Yankees’ schedule on paper.  June is the easiest, but that’s primarily due to the garbage that is interleague play.

Man, if Austin Jackson didn’t have so many strikeouts right now, I’d be pretty darn upset.

Seeing Carl Pavano post an 18/1 K/BB ratio is pretty darn upsetting though.

Seeing Carl Pavano post an 18/1 K/BB ratio is pretty darn upsetting though.

Some people just don’t have the “makeup” to play in NY.

Wait, is this the Curt Schilling-Javy Vasquez thread?  I guess I should have posted this there.

[27] Also, Jackson’s BABiP is .491 ans his LD% is 35.7%. That wouldn’t seem to be sustainable for long.

Derek Jeter SS
Nick Swisher RF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Robinson Cano 2B
Marcus Thames DH
Curtis Granderson CF
Francisco Cervelli C
Brett Gardner LF

RHP A.J. Burnett

11 had it exactly right, the WSJ poll was a joke and for instance had criteria such as Gehrig over Dimaggio because of “likeability.”

When I was a kid and Mantle was in his prime, Joe D. was generally considered to have been the greatest Yankee center fielder.  The numbers may not justify that conclusion, but based on perception I would agree that Joe D. ranks higher than Mantle.

Page 1 of 1 pages:

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