The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:

Saturday, February 2, 2013

WSJ: Teixeira Knows His Limits

This winter, Teixeira is accepting his new normal. After three seasons that for him would be considered down years, Teixeira is done tinkering with new ideas, done chasing a perpetual peak. If he is a .250 hitter, so be it. He is embracing his strengths—30-homer power, 90-walk patience, Gold Glove defense—and forgetting his weaknesses, on what he openly calls the backside of his career.

“This is my 11th year,” Teixeira said. “I’m not going to play 10 more years. I want 5 or 6 good ones. So that would say I’m on the backside of my career. And instead of trying to do things differently on the backside of my career, why not focus on the things I do well, and try to be very good at that?”
“I have no problem with anybody in New York, any fan, saying you’re overpaid. Because I am,” Teixeira said. “We all are.”

“Agents are probably going to hate me for saying it,” he continued. “You’re not very valuable when you’re making $20 million. When you’re Mike Trout, making the minimum, you are crazy valuable. My first six years, before I was a free agent, I was very valuable. But there’s nothing you can do that can justify a $20 million contract.”

It’s interesting to see a player showing this kind of self-awareness about his decline.  I’m not sure I agree with Teixeira that there’s no way to justify a $20M contract though.  If it wasn’t justified, owners wouldn’t be paying it.

--Posted at 5:14 pm by SG / 9 Comments | - (0)


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“Be some of what you can be.”

He’s right in a sense, since the cost controlled players leave more money for fewer players, inflating their place price over their “true” value. Someone could estimate that value by taking the sum of every team’s salary over their WAR, not me, but someone.

Ok, I lied. Baseball-Reference says that they put replacement level at a .325 winning percentage (in 2010). So that’s about 52 wins, call it 51 so an average team has 30 WAR. The internet tells me someone expects MLB payroll to over 3 billion this year, so 30 teams, 30 WAR, 3 billion comes to 3 and 1/3 million per win.

How’s that for fuzzy math?

[3] From that you can estimate how many players/team are getting exploited by not being free agents.

Holy crap, you wanna talk about value and how teams extract it, I just watched “Pelotero” again.  Baseball owners and MLB oughta be strung up by the thumbs.

According to Pro Football Reference 49ers have higher both offensive and defensive S.R.S.and they have a quarterback named Copernicus so they should be a lock.  Lay the spread.

Do statistics really work for other sports, bebop?

[2] I am glad you put “true” value in quotes.  When people say “true” value they usually mean what the payment would be in a “pure”, “free” market and in this case it would start with removing the draft and control of players.
But people forget that it should also mean removing the anti-monopoly waivers MLB owners receive.  In addition, the big money flows in from the media/cable markets squeezing their subscribers and that is hardly a “free” purely competitive market.  You can’t really say what the “true” value of a players (as a group) should be.  You can only talk about how to divy up the pool of money that is available for salaries among the players, based on criteria like WAR.

Tex may feel bad that because another player is worth more; but the players as a whole shouldn’t feel bad: less money in salaries would just mean the owners get to keep more (its not as if the owners and cable companies are going to give the fans a refund).

yeah, true is a dangerous word when you are dealing with models and definitions. In math if you want to define something with a certain few of the nice properties of the real numbers, it turns out that you have uniquely defined the real numbers. Outside of mathematics, that doesn’t happen.

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