The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Monday, February 25, 2013

Who Should Replace Curtis Granderson in LF?

Obviously, losing Curtis Granderson for what looks like around 6 weeks of the regular season stings.  Based on who’s in camp, here are some CAIRO baseline projections for Granderson and the other potential candidates to fill LF.

Player B PA AB H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO GDP HBP AVG OBP SLG wOBA BR BR/PA wOBA vs L wOBA vs R
Granderson L 650 566 137 21 5 33 15 5 70 159 7 6 .243 .328 .474 .345 89 0.137 .302 .360
Mustelier R 650 600 167 35 2 19 13 8 42 107 14 6 .278 .331 .437 .336 81 0.125 .350 .330
Neal R 650 595 155 34 2 14 10 9 46 135 15 9 .260 .322 .394 .318 71 0.109 .331 .312
Rivera R 650 591 147 28 1 21 4 4 47 91 20 5 .249 .305 .406 .310 70 0.107 .325 .303
Diaz R 650 592 148 32 2 14 9 4 42 130 20 8 .250 .305 .382 .303 67 0.103 .319 .287
Almonte S 650 602 139 28 2 21 17 9 43 169 13 5 .230 .287 .389 .296 65 0.100 .296 .296
Mesa R 650 598 131 28 3 22 21 13 44 206 13 7 .220 .281 .388 .293 63 0.097 .305 .287
Garcia R 650 601 140 38 2 15 7 9 40 125 15 6 .232 .285 .377 .291 61 0.094 .303 .285

BR: Linear weights batting runs
wOBA: Weighted on-base average

I’ve sorted the list by BR/PA and pro-rated everyone to 650 PA.  Ronnier Mustelier projects to be the best offensive replacement in the list and it’s really not close.  However, his defense is questionable.  After that there really isn’t a ton of separation between the rest of the candidates on offense.  One thing worth noting is that every single player with the exception of Almonte projects better than Granderson vs. LHP, which really means you’re only losing that .360 wOBA vs. RHP which should account for at most about 2/3 of the total time Granderson will miss.

I’m kind of hoping Mustelier hits enough to claim the spot because he’s got some positional flexibility and because I fear the Yankees’ preference will be to go with Rivera or Diaz because of their veteranness even if they are both cooked.  But really it probably doesn’t matter who the Yankees decide to go with, at least on offense.  If you give each player 150 PA here’s how many BR they project to provide.

Player BR/150
Granderson 20.6
Mustelier 18.8
Neal 16.4
Rivera 16.1
Diaz 15.4
Almonte 15.0
Mesa 14.6
Garcia 14.1

Defense and baserunning is likely an issue, although I doubt it’d be more than 5 runs over 150 PAs worth of games.  But it may tip the scales in favor of someone like Mesa who by all accounts is a very good defensive player and baserunner(until he gets to third base). 

So at worst, the Yankees should only lose about one win assuming Granderson can come back by mid-May.  Hopefully he doesn’t suffer any lingering effects from this injury.

--Posted at 9:10 am by SG / 60 Comments | - (0)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

This Morining’s LA Time Headline”:
  Vernon Wells going from Angels to Yankees? Not likely

Is there a good reason to bother to deny this?


http://www.latimes.com/sports/baseball/mlb/angels/la-sp-0225-angels-20130225,0,4413825.story

Angels fans wishcasting. They think we are the Dodgers.

Dickerson? Canzler? Oh, right.

In 2011 the Yankees got 16 fWAR out of their Top 3 outfielders.

It was a very good year…

Canzler! I was trying to remember his name. Good thing they DFA’d him. Hey at least they have Ichiro.

Yeah, it’d be nice to have Dickerson right about now.

I am somewhat partial to Neal. He is the prototypical AAAA outfielder, but those guys can surprise you sometimes (see Chris Dickerson). He is also a good defender, so there’s not a lot of worry there. So I’d like to see him get a shot. But then again, I presume all of these guys are going to get a SHOT, at least, so whoever plays the best I’m fine with.

The only thing that worries me is the Yankees picking a veteran who DIDN’T play the best.

I wonder if we will see some gamesmanship from the Orioles with regards to Dickerson. Like if they weren’t planning on keeping him, maybe they will try to keep him now that they know that the Yankees would gladly bring him back.

Can’t Mo play CF?

There should be better options come opening day, right? There would be teams who DFA some OF, I guess.

Yeah, good point, dakranker. Guys with Spring Training invites who don’t make their respective teams will suddenly become available. I’m crossing my fingers that Dickerson doesn’t catch on in Baltimore.

Why did the Yankees let Dickerson go anyway - did they need the 40 man spot?

Yeah, they needed it for Canzler. Who they then dropped when they needed a spot for Hafner.

One of Canzler or Dickerson should become available by April.

I thought they DFA’d Canzler way before they got interested in Hafner, but maybe they knew about it way longer than was public.

How about this one:
http://www.rantsports.com/mlb/2013/02/24/new-york-yankees-adding-bobby-abreu-might-make-some-sense/

I thought they DFA’d Canzler way before they got interested in Hafner, but maybe they knew about it way longer than was public.

No, they were paired moves.

And yeah, dakranker, you would think that one of those two would become available again. Here’s to hoping!

Wallace Matthews just did a piece for ESPN where he suggests that Grandy’s injury means that he is effectively guaranteed to keep his center field spot. Do you all agree with that line of thinking?

And EB, that Abreu article made me think of another thing Matthews noted, that we will soon see all sorts of old former stars have their names bandied about. He mentioned Vlad, but Abreu definitely fits in there, as well.

Just skimming what he wrote, you could probably make the same argument the other way.

Granderson broke his throwing arm, so presumably he is going to reach a point where he can run around and catch, but they aren’t comfortable letting him bat and throw hard, so I don’t think it will make much of a difference from Granderson’s side, but Gardner is definitely going to start in CF for the first month, so why switch him afterwards?

If they wanted to watch Granderson play LF to make sure he’d be comfortable there, then yes, there’s a pretty good chance that Granderson will be back in CF when he returns.

But I suppose they could rehab him in LF and see how it goes.

[19]
mmmmm…...Vlad

If Jeter or ARod were healthy would we be hearing rumors about one of them taking fly balls in the outfield?

This team has tremendous downside projection

What a wonderful chance to trade Cano.

[25] This team has a lot of potential.

[26]
If someone is willing to make some kind of Hershel Walker deal.

Is there a team with the prospects, the bankroll and the need to be on the other side of such a trade.

Unless the Rangers are ready to give up a young shortstop and break the bank with a long term deal, I don’t see a trading partner.

The trading partner doesn’t have to extend him in order to make a good deal. They could offer him arbitration and have a first round pick next year.

[26]  Not now, but maybe soon.

If this team is languishing in July, you’d have to look at what you could get in return for Cano, Granderson, Kuroda, and Hughes.

Should be enough to really jump-start them towards being excellent again in 2015.

What a wonderful chance to trade Cano.

Six runs = trade your best player?  Really?

The marginal value of a win is at its absolute highest for the Yankees right now; trading Cano for anything resembling reasonable is crazy.

On the Orioles broadcast, one of the broadcasters had said to Buck something like, “That Chris Dickerson can do a lot for you.”  And Buck responded, “Yeah, why would we want to give him back to the Yankees?” 

So maybe it’s unlikely he finds his way back to us.

If the Yankees trade Cano, I think the Cardinals are the best partner. They have a strong farm system that could absorb the cost of acquiring Cano without gutting the system. The Yankees could cover their coming OF and 2B hole with Taveras and Wong and might be able to get one of the Cardinal’s lower minors pitchers.

That being said, I don’t think the Yankees should trade Cano.

The Cardinals will not trade Taveras from scratch for one year of Cano, let alone throw in Wong. Only Dayton Moore makes that trade.

If the Yanks were going to trade Cano, which they should not, I still think the A’s could be a partner.  Yanks get back one of Lowrie/the Japanese guy and a couple top prospects—maybe even ML arms, the A’s have a bunch of guys who are ready.  Maybe you get them to do Cervelli for Jaso as part of the deal.

[35] Maybe not, but it’s a fair trade. The last time a player of Cano’s caliber was traded was the ARod trade which was a salary dump and still involved an established all-star caliber player (and almost Cano). Taveras might be a great prospect and Wong is pretty good, but neither have played a single MLB inning.

Cano is easily one of the elite of the elite MLB players currently, the return for him will be huge.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USHHQRodF88

[38] Is there a way I can use this as my alarm clock? I like to start the day off the right way.

[39] Yes.  Just to be snide.

rilke had some Sassy Sauce on his Wheaties this morning.

Seriously, the Yankees have admitted they are disappointed with season ticket sales.  How does trading Cano address that?

You don’t re-sign Pettitte, Rivera and Kuroda to rebuild. This is their last/best chance of competing with this group of players. They are not going to trade their best player (who is also one of the best players in all of baseball), especially when we’re only talking about Grandy missing a month and a half of the season.

The corpse of Johnny Damon has made himself available as a 6-week-and-then-go-home Granderson replacement.

[42, 43] If you think the projections are optimistic (say by 5 games) I can see punting as a strategy.  It’s not consistent with resigning Andy and Kuroda (you can’t not resign Mo), but plans change - or one doesn’t care what the FO thinks.  This would (given such a viewpoint) address future ticket sales.

I saw this in an ESPN article:

The primary goal of Yankees ownership appears to be avoiding a large tax and possible loss of players in penalties if they exceed $189 million in payroll beginning in 2014.

Is that true? Could the Yankees lose PLAYERS in penalties?!

[46] I hope they lose ARod first!

Then Tex…

[47, 48] You’ve got the order wrong. Alex is more valuable than Teix, because he could still learn to bunt if he had to. Which he may.

It’s called “upside”.

[49] If Chris Stewart learns how to bunt, his Outs Created Average would be through the roof!

[50] Wouldn’t you want him to not learn but attempt bunts anyway?

I think the point is to fake a bunt to put the fielders in a better position to field weak groundouts.

[52] We’re talking about Stewart not Cervello.

[52]  Has that been Jeter’s plan all along?

I am 95% certain that Jeter has fake bunted into a GIDP, so yes.

The ship be sinking.

Kevin Homunkulis shut down due to left oblique strain and ugliness.

How long of a DL stint is it going to take to cure the ugly?

Eleventy billion years

See, I woulda preferred Grandy go down with the oblique, and Youkilis take the HBP broken bone.

Can Joba still drill him in the clubhouse ? Or the hotel lobby ?

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