Hmmm, Unnamed Starter and AJ both mysteriously not on the list.

Great work.

And if only Andy stayed healthy, he’d probably be 8 or 9 slots higher.

“Best Candidate” of course can mean two things.  While Lee will likely be the most deserving, I also don’t think he’ll win.  Until last year, the Cy Young Predictor has been very accurate (since it’s been a predicter the top starter on it has won each year until last).  By that, CC is in the lead.  Considering the MVPs Jeter has lost, I won’t cry if CC wins the award over Lee…

[3] Couldn’t Greinke winning last year be a sign that the age of over valuing pitcher wins may be at a close and that CC’s large win total won’t matter as much?

I think King Felix is going to squeak out a win.

[4] Yes and no.  For one, Grienke was 2nd on the Predicter last year.  Not that I expect voters look at that, but you’d just expect him to get a lot of votes.  To date, Lee isn’t even in the top 10 this year.  For two, at least one sabremetrically inclined voter had a Cy Young vote last year, Keith Law.  Law doesn’t have a vote this year, IDK who does of course.  For three, there were no 20 game winners last year, which helped Grienke’s 16 look better.  This year there’s a good chance there will be 2 or 3 guys with 20 wins.  Plus, while 16-8 was a low W-L record, Lee so far is only 10-6.  He may not even get to 15 wins, through no fault of his own.  Finally, Lee is 4th in ERA so far.  Grienke was 1st by a solid margin.

Of course I don’t know for sure what will happen, but I have a feeling that enough voters still look at wins, and even if they’re willing to vote for a guy who is 16-8 when there are no 20-game winners, may note vote for a guy who is 14-7 when there *are* 20-game winners.  Also, even some of the ones who think wins are overrated, may still not vote for the guy with the 4th best ERA.

Oh, and Felix believe it or not has a *losing* record (8-10).  At best he’s going to be like 14-10, and I just don’t think that will cut it.

Four years from now, Banuelos is pitching game one of the WS.  He throws a 97 mph fb on the lower inside corner.  David Ortiz, leading off for the Mets, breaks his bat, but shortstop DJ throws the easy ground ball into the seats.  On the next pitch (swinging strike) Posada tries to pick Ortiz off at second, but the ball rolls into CF too slowly for Gardner to throw Ortiz out at third.  On the next pitch Bonds hits a nubber to A-Rod at first.  1-0 Mets.

I think the voters are starting to get a bit more open-minded about things besides wins when voting for Cy Young.  Sabathia won the Cy Young in 2007 with a 19-10 record and 3.21 ERA over Josh Beckett, who went 20-7 with a 3.27 ERA.  They correctly understood that the 40 extra innings by CC was worth more than the extra win and three fewer losses by Beckett.

I actually think it’s bad for the Yankees if CC wins the Cy Young, because it may increase the likelihood of him opting out.  Then again, if teams are smart, whether or not he’s won a Cy Young or two shouldn’t effect their valuation of him.

[6] The record sucks, but his ERA, SOs, WHIP and IP are going to be huge for him.

Felix is on pace to pitch something like 240 innings with an ERA under 3 and well over 200 Ks! That’s pretty ridiculous. But, you’re probably right.

whether or not he’s won a Cy Young or two shouldn’t effect their valuation of him.

I think there is a non-negligible financial benefit to a team signing a Cy-Young winner that would be reflected in his next contract, so I too hope he is a candidate but doesn’t outright win.

[7] Posada is still playing catcher in 4 years?!

[0] Thanks by the way for the data.

What’s up with Cahill’s ERA/FIP/CERA?  2.54     4.17     2.14

o.O

[12] FIP only relies on Ks and BBs treats all BIP the same. So a GB pitcher who doesn’t K people will rarely have a great FIP, unless they never walk anyone or give up a HR.

[11] Banuelos never gives up an earned run pitching to Posada, so he’s kept on to catch once/rotation until Selig forces him to retire after the 2016 AS game in which the battery throws a perfect 27-K game and the RS petition to move to the NL.

Arod DH, Cervelli and Pena batting 8/9 so no breather for poor struggling Felix.

What’s up with Cahill’s ERA/FIP/CERA?  2.54   4.17   2.14

Cahill’s got a BABIP against of .213 and has allowed 90 non-HR hits.  For RA/ERA and FIP, that’s not considered fluky and he gets full credit for it.

If you regress that .213 to league average via FIP, you’re adding about 38 non-HR hits to his line.  Those 38 hits should be about 2/3 singles and 1/3 doubles.  So you’re adding about 25 singles and 13 doubles when you look at his FIP, which is equal to about 23 runs.

From KG’s chat at Bpro:

Benjamin (Cape Cod, Massachusetts): I’m getting worried, please tell me my Sox still have a better farm system than those boys in Pinstripes.

Kevin Goldstein: I love how worked up Sox and Yankees fans get worked up about the other team’s SYSTEM. For now: Advantage Yankees, sorry.

Yikes, K/9 5.2, K/BB 2.0.  Think I’ll suspect luck, the A’s being able to field, and the area of foul territory in Oakland until proven otherwise.

Liriano: 0 unearned runs.  Wonder what pitcher/team/scorer have been best at suppressing unearned runs in modern times.

Wonder what pitcher/team/scorer have been best at suppressing unearned runs in modern times.

Career-wise, I think it’s Curt Schilling who has the highest ratio of ER/R.

[20] Probably because he was such an ass that everyone wanted his ERA to go up.

Wow, thanks for doing a massive, thorough post just to prove that Jon Lester deserves the Cy this year! I really needed that.

SSF with the jinx.