I’ve got a bad feeling about it. Oakland is playing well, we’ve been playing too well, it’s on the West Coast, etc.

How did Alex Rodriguez get to the point of being the worst fielder in the team? Admittedly, I did not watch the last few games, but the games I saw he was spectacular, and the initial data backed it up.

But to the more general point, I think defense is where Oakland’s real strength is. Ryan Sweeney is spectacular, Mark Ellis is awesome, and Rajai Davis is really good. Thankfully, it looks like the Yankees will miss Brett Anderson. While I love watching him pitch, I will gladly sign up for times when he misses action against the Yankees.

I’ve got a bad feeling about it. Oakland is playing well, we’ve been playing too well, it’s on the West Coast, etc.

Me too.  Doesn’t Mo always blow a save in Oakland early in the year?  Feels like it anyway.

How did Alex Rodriguez get to the point of being the worst fielder in the team? Admittedly, I did not watch the last few games, but the games I saw he was spectacular, and the initial data backed it up.

These are the defensive projections heading into 2010, and what we’ve seen in 12 games so far this year is not enough to change them, although obviously we can use our observations to change how much credence we give them.  Rodriguez has been very good so far this year, I think he had the highest 3B ZR last time I checked.  Similarly, I think Posada’s more like a -50 than a -5.

Mo only blows saves to Marco Scutaro. Thankfully, Boston has taken him with them on their trip to the bottom of the league.

[3] Similarly, I think Posada’s more like a -50 than a -5. 

As bad as he is on defense, at least the league has not stolen 22 out of 23 bases of us, in 13 games. And they have more WP + PB than us too.

I hope this game isn’t too important. I’ll be sawin’ wood by 2300. No shot at making the 5th inning tonight.
Too bad about Lackey. I thought bulldog aces were worth 2 wins per start. Perhaps the Sawx are just mondeseing with us?

I suspect that Thames will get at least one start v. the LH starter(s), maybe two, although I would hope not in LF given that spacious OF.

SG,

Is the anti-HFA 0.02 or 0.002?  Because the Yankees’ PythagenPat went from 0.714 to 0.712 when you applied it, which seems off by an order of magnitude.  (Apologies for the nitpickery)

Also, how much do Pythagorean records tell us after so few games?  (Other than the Orioles aren’t quite as bad as they’ve looked)  At this stage, can they differentiate between an 8 win team and a 9 win team, for example?

Of course I meant tomorrows game. ha friggin ha.

Is the anti-HFA 0.02 or 0.002?  Because the Yankees’ PythagenPat went from 0.714 to 0.712 when you applied it, which seems off by an order of magnitude.  (Apologies for the nitpickery)

Yeah, it’s 0.02, it was correct in my spreadsheet so the win probability is right, but it’s wrong in the post.  I’ll fix that.

Also, how much do Pythagorean records tell us after so few games?

Frankly, I don’t think they tell us much of anything.  Not just because of the small sample size, but because of the concentration of opposition.  Boston’s Pythagenpat is 4.6 - 8.4, compared to their 4-9 record, but they’ve played 10 of their 13 games against what may be three of the top four teams in the American League (Twins, Rays, Yanks). 

Honestly, year to date Pythagenpat/Pythagorean theorem is a useful blunt tool, but with the increased availability of projections and things that can give us better ways to estimate team strength I’m not sure we should use it all that much.  Rosters change, players get traded, released, signed, injured.  What a team did in April doesn’t necessarily tell us anything about how good they are in August.  Now if you want to re-calculate a team’s offense and defense/pitching to account for things that aren’t captured when using a full season’s data and plug that into Pythagenpat, I think you’re cooking.

That being said, the trade-off in time to do more rigorous analysis all the time may not be worth the marginal increase in accuracy.

Of course I meant tomorrows game. ha friggin ha.

It’s always tomorrow somewhere.

Of course, Vazquez’s projections don’t include the fact that he can’t pitch in Yankee pinstripes, so the actual Yankee win probability is more like -100.0%.

This point of view has absolutely no basis in fact. It is well established that the Yankees wear grey, and not pinstripes to road games.

This point of view has absolutely no basis in fact. It is well established that the Yankees wear grey, and not pinstripes to road games.

Lawyerly.

It’s always tomorrow somewhere.

Actually, it’s never tomorrow anywhere, since it’s always a day away.

Actually, as we learn on the train, it’s all the same #@%(*#%*(&-ing day.

[14] Time flies like a bird. Fruit flies like a banana.

“As we learn on the train”?

That’s where Oakland’s biggest strength lies. So far this season, their pitching staff has been the most effective one in the American League.

That’s because a certain southpaw from Trumbull, CT is a kickass middle reliever.

Totally POOMA, but I think Vazquez will have a good game tomorrow night.

I was following the Mets game chatter at BTF, one of the conversations was what player was developed by the Cubs and Mets. And you know what? For all the talk about the Yankee system being overly hyped and reliance on proven veterans, the FO has turned out a pretty decent slew of players, consistently. Even removing the non core, Nick Johnson, Robbie Cano, Soriano, etc.

And seems like a couple of kids fit somewhere in the bench every year, Gardner, Pena, Cervelli, so forth

[17]
Rilke, it’s a reference.
Virtual cupie doll to the first one to identify it correctly!

[19] I hadn’t realized just how difficult it is for the Yanks to draft quality players until I heard Cashman discuss that the main reason the system is so pitcher-heavy is because by the time the Yanks get their pick, the best-regarded position players are gone.  So they get a lot of young, raw arms and drop coin on international scouting and spend a little more to draft foreign players.

“it’s a reference”

And here I was thinking it meant, “I wear fried diapers on my hat” in some language bearing an unfortunate and deceptive resemblance to English.

This point of view has absolutely no basis in fact. It is well established that the Yankees wear grey, and not pinstripes to road games.

we have a winner, thus Vazquez will probably go something like 8-15 this year, going 8-3 on the road and 0-12 at home.

I was following the Mets game chatter at BTF, one of the conversations was what player was developed by the Cubs and Mets. And you know what? For all the talk about the Yankee system being overly hyped and reliance on proven veterans, the FO has turned out a pretty decent slew of players, consistently. Even removing the non core, Nick Johnson, Robbie Cano, Soriano, etc.

And seems like a couple of kids fit somewhere in the bench every year, Gardner, Pena, Cervelli, so forth

that was one horrific discussion when people realize that the best outfielder the Cubs produced in the last decade + is ... Gary Mathews Jr.

From the previous thread:
BTW, for the season the 94 squad was .290/.375/.460.

FUCk YOU STRIKE!

Well, the Yankees would have run into a monster known as the 1994 Montreal Expos in the WS. That is who the strike truly screwed over. Maybe without the strike, they win the WS and Habs fans start to get into baseball as well and they don’t sell off all their players and end up battling the Braves for NL supremacy the rest of the decade. Or maybe French-Canadians would have never gotten into baseball and they were pre-destined to become the Natinals.

Also, World War Z is magnificent, as is SG and this Red Sox collapse. (An actual quote from Baseball Tonight, “Instead of focusing on what is wrong with the Red Sox, let’s look at what is right with the Rays.”)

Question on the numbers for the teams - how would I convert them to BRAA?  I mean, if you wanted to, feel free to add a column for it!  But I’m happy to do it myself if I know the scale.  E.g. if I were doing it for a player I could do something like (BRAR)-(20)*(600/playerPA), and that should tell me (roughly) how much above/below average a player is based on their playing time.  If I wanted to convert it at the team-level what would the best/simplest way be? 

I believe you use standard values now for average and replacement as opposed to computing the numbers for each season?  So if a RL pitching staff lets up 5.5 runs per game, and an average staff lets up 4.5, that would make the Yankees 3.7 BRAA, which I’m guessing is close to the actual values.

Though we’re looking at everything in a relative manner to compare teams, sometimes it is useful/interesting to compare against “average”.  I’m happy to do the math myself, I just need to know what the constants are.

I consider this a show-me start by Vazguez.  He’s up against what should be a pretty weak offense (particularly wrt OBP, and as we know, baserunners result in Javy pitching less effectively, since he struggles from the stretch) in a pitcher’s park.  If he gets smacked around out there, I will start worrying.

Question on the numbers for the teams - how would I convert them to BRAA?

I still use the current league average for average/replacement level, but I use standard values for position-adjusting.  So to figure out the average BR per plate appearance, you can just add up the league total BR in the first chart and divide by PAs, in this case it = 0.120876983.  Then to see how a player compares to average, you just subtract that # from their BR/PA and multiply by player PA.  For replacement level, you’d so something similar, but use use 80% of the total BR divided by PAs to get the replacement level adjustment.

I believe you use standard values now for average and replacement as opposed to computing the numbers for each season?  So if a RL pitching staff lets up 5.5 runs per game, and an average staff lets up 4.5, that would make the Yankees 3.7 BRAA, which I’m guessing is close to the actual values.

You lost me here.  Are you talking RSAR now?

How much must it suck to be 5.5 games out in the division, ahead of but ONE team in the wildcard race, after playing 70% of your schedule at home ?

Wheee-doggies ! That’s some GM Boy Geniusing, there. Yep.

[26]  I hear what you’re saying, but I don’t think it’s realistic to designate any one particular start as THE start in which JV must prove his worth.  Even if he weren’t already battling some mechanical issues, anyone can suck on a particular day.  I don’t consider it a given that CC will necessarily be good in his next start, so why should JV have to be?

Javy sounds like he has a pretty good handle on what’s wrong and he’s trying to deal with it.  Even if it takes him another half dozen starts to get it right, I don’t think that’s such a bad thing IF he ends up having a good year overall—which obviously will remain a possibility for many more weeks to come regardless of what happens tonight.

I hate to use this cliche, but it IS just April.  The team is off to a great start.  I don’t think we’re quite at the point of desperation with Javy where he’s gotta either produce TONIGHT or face a firing squad in the morning.

You lost me here.  Are you talking RSAR now?

Sorry, yes.

I guess I’m more looking at it from the team level and used the player-level for an example of how I would do that.  You’re presenting the listing of BRAR and RSAR for teams, and I see the Yankees as 14.7 RSAR.  So, how does that compare to average?  I’m guessing right around average - they are 7th on the list - but sure, I would like to know.  For a player I can figure that out myself.  Even if I cheat and say 20 RSAR/600PA is average (FanGraphs adjustment I believe) which isn’t exactly what you are doing I should be close.  So, how would I do that on a team level?

The “long” method would be to compute each player’s BRAA (or RSAA), and then add up the values.  I would think a “fast” way would be to just have the league-averages handy.  I think I could just use league-average runs-scored - which should be the same as league-average runs allowed right, at least until we get IL play? - but that would add more error.  Since I’m just doing because “I want to know” rather than for some analysis would that be close enough?

Sorry for rambling post, mind doesn’t seem to be working correctly today…

I don’t think we’re quite at the point of desperation with Javy where he’s gotta either produce TONIGHT or face a firing squad in the morning.

You don’t read the NY Sports pages, do you?

I think it’s perfectly reasonable to view tonight’s start as a “show-me” start for Javy, considering what Rob has put in the balance:
 
If he gets smacked around out there, I will start worrying.
 
I’m going to go out on a limb and guess that if, after a horrendous start tonight, he has a 2.20 ERA over the subsequent 10 starts, Rob will then stop worrying (for the most part).

Only a firing squad?

I think drawing and quartering is more likely.

I’ve always been partial to tar and feathering.

[34]
Anybody slated for drawing and quartering would be, too.

[29]

I said I’d start to worry.  Just that, nothing more.  I’m not going to panic and call Javy a bum if he pitches poorly tonight.

I guess I wasn’t being literal enough.  I interpreted your statement that you would start to worry about Javy as an assertion that there would be reasonable grounds for Yankees fans to worry about Javy.  My apologies.

I feel bad for Cameron.  Not the Red Sox, but Cameron.

I guess I’m more looking at it from the team level and used the player-level for an example of how I would do that.  You’re presenting the listing of BRAR and RSAR for teams, and I see the Yankees as 14.7 RSAR.  So, how does that compare to average?

OK.  For offense, the adjustment from average to replacement level is 22.5 runs per 700 PAs.  So divide 22.5 by 700 and multiply by team PAs and subtract that from BRAR to get to BRAA.  Although actually, the chart here is showing BRAA for offense already, so you’d add instead to get to BRAR.

So taking the Yankees an example from the team stats above.
PA: 472
BRAA: 18.2
Replacement level adjustment: 22.5/700 times 472 = 15.2
BRAR = 18.2 + 15.2

For pitching, I use RA instead of FIP, and calculate runs saved above replacement as x times league average RA minus team/pitcher RA, divided by nine, times innings pitched, where x = 1.25 for starters and 1.15 for relievers.

So if you instead want to compare to average, don’t use the x, just use league average RA minus team/pitcher RA divided by nine times IP. 

You can grab the league averages from Baseball Reference at these two links:
AL.
NL.

Also, I’m still not doing any park factor adjustments yet, but you may want to at least make a mental adjustment for that based on past history.

It saddens me that I’m curious about the upcoming PED suspension.

I’ll say that Javy’s start tonight is an important one but not a “he pitches lights out or he’s a bust!”

If he doesn’t put up some results in the next 3 starts, then I start worrying. I was never particularly overjoyed when we got him back, although getting him for Melky was in my opinion a coup. I never liked Melky all that much, thought he was just good enough to be detrimental.

I want Javy to do well. I believe he will. If he hasn’t after his next three turns I may reassess my belief in him.

If it makes you feel any better, Javy only needs to pitch 2 scoreless innings tonight in order to beat Jon Lester’s 2010 ERA.

[39] Thank you!

If Vazquez can’t pitch well against Oakland, who can’t freaking hit, we’ve got serious problems.

SG- Is your Vazquez projection updated with the last 2 starts? I’m asking you this because in the betting market, the Yanks are favorites 1.5 to 1 or 60% Win Prob. In fact the line opened 1.6 to 1 and it went lower untill getting to this level.

I know that professional gamblers use sabermetrics to get an edge on the lines and they played Oakland 1.55 to 1, which seems way offline to what you have here.

[44] true but i’ve decided that I only have room in my life to live and die with the progress of one Yankee pitcher per season, and this season I have devoted to Phil. Can’t wait to see where he is after 5 starts.

SG- Is your Vazquez projection updated with the last 2 starts? I’m asking you this because in the betting market, the Yanks are favorites 1.5 to 1 or 60% Win Prob. In fact the line opened 1.6 to 1 and it went lower untill getting to this level.

No, I have not adjusted any projections.  The projection you use can make a difference though.  If I use CHONE instead of the average, it comes out as a 60.8% Yankee win probability in the first game.

I know that professional gamblers use sabermetrics to get an edge on the lines and they played Oakland 1.55 to 1, which seems way offline to what you have here.

I’m not a gambler, so I don’t really know what percentage of bets are made by professionals versus fans, but isn’t it just possible fans that are pessimistic about Vazquez after his first two starts are the real reason the line has moved the way it has?

I’m not a gambler, so I don’t really know what percentage of bets are made by professionals versus fans, but isn’t it just possible fans that are pessimistic about Vazquez after his first two starts are the real reason the line has moved the way it has?

Yes, people are pessimistic about him, that’s a good point. But what explains it is that CHONE proejection is very popular, so people should be using that one to bet. And CHONE was the most pessimistc on Vazquez (if I remember well)

Fans are a big part of the mkt, that explains why the Yankees and Red Sox are almost always more expensive than the fair odds, but professional gamblers move the lines because of their big volume and because they get a lot of followers, too.

Fans are a big part of the mkt, that explains why the Yankees and Red Sox are almost always more expensive than the fair odds, but professional gamblers move the lines because of their big volume and because they get a lot of followers, too.

The lines move because one side of the bet is getting a heavy amount of takers over the other.  So the bookmakers move the line accordingly.

Why not just give the ball to Aceves right now?