Tuesday, May 22, 2012
What if the Yankees Had Performed at an Average Rate with Runners on Base?
With all the harping on the Yankees’ performance with runners in scoring position of late, I wondered how many more wins they’d have if they had just performed at an average rate in all base/out situations and weren’t so unclutch.
If we replace the Yankees actual runs scored in each game with the linear weights batting runs instead, they’d be 22-20 instead of 21-21. The only game they lost that they would have won was 4/24/2012 vs. Texas, the game where Yu Darvish out-dueled Hiroki Kuroda..
So no, this team really hasn’t been that unlucky. They just haven’t played very well.
Comments
Not long ago, we had Jeter looking like he’d compete for an MVP, and the best 8th/9th inning duo in baseball. Now we have Ibanez and…
Tex says at the end of the year he’ll put his numbers up against any power hitters (Lohud). And pets.com stock is about to skyrocket.
A bit off topic but today’s a day to gripe. How about criticizing our team’s medics? I haven’t seen such slow healers since the Nick Johnson days. Gardner’s been out way longer than anticipated. Pineda was likely having issues and allowed to continue pitching in S.T. What about Romine? He’s been out a long time as well with back issues. Never read anywhere that this guy had previous issues with a bad back, so if its a first encounter, you would think he’d be close after nearly two months. If he had a previous record, another reason not to let Jesus go. Slade Heathcott another guy that is incredibly slow coming back from surgery. I know he’s had a series of problems but he’s had the whole winter and most of last season.
Maybe sending Cervelli down is responsible for this bad streak of problems. My list as best as I can recall of the major injuries. See if I left any out.
Joba,Robertson ankle, Romine, Gardner, Swisher, Rivera, Robertson ribs, Banuelos and Tex Gerigs cold. At least no one on the list we counted on.
[8] from SG in previous thread: “I wonder how much attendance is going to have to drop to make them re-think getting under the $189M target? They get something like $50M back in revenue sharing rebates if they get there. According to Forbes the average ticket price is $63, so if they lose 794,000 ticket sales they’re effectively no better off.”
Is it confirmed that the new CBA would cancel the revenue sharing rebates from the stadium? I can’t find a source anywhere and it seems that this time MLB did not post the CBA on their site.
I suppose you have to calculate the cumulative loss in revenue sharing rebates (however that is structured and for however many years), plus the cumulative loss from not “resetting” the luxury tax’s sliding scale, plus the direct salary savings (from some hypothetical level). On the revenue side, Team Market Research adds about 50% for DNYS parking and a basket of stadium sales (of course the team only gets a share of that revenue). Then there are the other marketing revenues and the impact on YES advertising revenue.
I would be a bitter irony if the stadium costs/rebates had this sort of impact since the taxpayer paid so much of the real stadium cost.
Well, Joba, the first Robertson, Mo, and probably Tex seem like freak accidents/bad luck. Don’t really know what they could have done differently.
Why is Kevin Long not getting roasted right now? I have always heard how great Kevin Long is when hitters have been successful in the past, but his name is never mentioned when things are going south. He is clearly no factor with Teixiera and is maybe a detriment. But if a guy is hot, all you hear is “Kevin Long… cage rat… working hard with player X…”
Maybe we should get Mickey Hatcher…
SG - are you sure you got this right? If they hit better with RISP earlier in games, maybe their bullpen usage changes and they don’t give up lots of runs late with inferior pitchers? And don’t they have a nunber of one-run losses - are you saying none would have been turned around with one timely hit (like the two games this past weekend)? And is it me or do they seem to hit inot a ton of DPs? I know I am ranting but this is about as upset as I’ve been with them since they choked away 1985.
It’s Hughes Day. The rest of the team has gotten so bad, this actually excites me again.
Though probably not a player that would be a factor, I still follow Vendette the ambidextrous guy. Guess what? Announced he has a torn labrum. News just gets better. I suppose he always can heal and throw with the other side. Much less entertaining.
Unofficially one or two outlets says Man Ban’s injury not severe? Pardon me if I take that news without much confidence.
Agree on Kevin Long, hasn’t helped Tex and did not do wonders for Jeter either.
Maybe Gary Denbo or a team of five hitting coaches needs to be employed. For Tex the first thing I’d do is take that goofy look off his face and tell him to quit shaking that darn bat! you would think his little league coach would have done something to quiet his timing gyrations years ago.
SG - are you sure you got this right? If they hit better with RISP earlier in games, maybe their bullpen usage changes and they don’t give up lots of runs late with inferior pitchers?
There have been a total of four one run losses, and it looks like I missed one game, the 6-5 loss to Cincinnati this weekend. All the other games are right. In each case, the extra runs didn’t exceed the other teams score.
Whether or not the score dictated a different pitcher usage, I have not accounted for.
They’re scoring more often than you’d expect in non-RISP situations which I think explains why the difference isn’t larger.
yup, they score more than avg with no RISP becasue they hit a lot of HRs. Maybe because they are all swinging for the fences. thanks.
42 years since we went 0-13 or worse with RISP in a game
I’m not even in the country and I can smell the stink coming from this team.
When Gardner returns, the team will go on a run. I hope.
[14] They are already on a run…to the cellar.
When Gardner returns the Yankees might score a run.
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