They should win a bit by in-season reweighting.  And calling up Banuelos if desperate.

“Can they add the 10+ wins they probably need to put themselves solidly in contention with what’s available to them?”

Well Pettitte is coming back (he’s already “leaning” that way), that’s 2.5 WAR, and they’ll sign Lee, which should be another 4-5 WAR, and they’ll sign a closer of some sort, which is at least 1.0 WAR.

So, that’s 8.  I’d say yeah, they get to 10 no problem.

I expect better seasons from Alex, Granderson (over a full season), Hughes, Joba, and perhaps AJ, but even if they fall short, at least one silver lining is that 2011 is the last year that Igawa’s name will ever be attached to the Yankees.

AJ projects to give up 6 more runs in 10 less innings than Phil “Nails” Hughes. Damn.

[1] Also, I think Banuelos would come up after both Brackman and Betances, mostly due to age. The Yankees are pretty conservative in regards to bringing their pitchers up to the ML. Also, I think Betances has the best opportunity to “force” a promotion to the MLB.

[2] Also, Jeter will be back.

So it’s no longer “Sign Cliff Lee and we win the World Series”, but now “Sign Cliff Lee or endure ~20 starts of Kei Igawa and 5-7 more from some guy who is at this moment sorting shoe returns at a bowling alley in Columbus, OH” ?

[5] If that is the case, I am fine with Lee receiving a blank check.

This is pretty pessimistic.  Not that I’m arguing with it, but the Yankees are kind of stuck for the next few years if their options to be good right now, for next year, are basically run the table in signing Lee/Mo/Pettitte/Jeter and pray for no catastrophic injury, no big regressions, and a bit of rebound from some older players.

Which teams are up-and-coming that I can root for?  Maybe the D-Backs or Pirates, they have a lot of ex-Yankees.

...and I forgot “hope that Montero is as ML-ready as we would like to believe.”

Conkles: I’m not sure what to make of that, but I’m quite sure that it’s not realistic to compare Jeter’s cultural cache to that of Dimaggio or Ruth.
 
And the Verducci thing - are you saying that they have a big marketing budget at the beginning of the year, and as articles are written they strike things off?  In other words, do the Yankees ACTUALLY spend less if Verducci writes?
 
AND - writing, as far as I can tell, is Verducci’s JOB.  He can’t not write about the Yankees (unless they’re irrelevant - that is, not winning. And even then…)  Does Jeter really make him write more?
 
I find that all very unlikely, and I think it undermines some of your argument.

[2]
That offense, plus the pitching moves Snapper gives and THAT only gets this team to around 90 wins?
That does seem odd.

[10] - Less than 90. You also have to subtract out the contributions of the starters they are replacing.

These are pretty preliminary projections, and we have no idea how other teams are projecting out. CAIRO could be pessimistic across the board this year. I’m concerned but I’m not going to worry until we see the whole picture.

That offense, plus the pitching moves Snapper gives and THAT only gets this team to around 90 wins?
That does seem odd.

Some of the people in the projection are worse than replacement level, so you have to add more than straight WAR.

If the Yankees sign Lee, Pettitte and Mo and they replace the worst projected innings they go to around a 92 win team.

[11]
Right.
That seems very odd to me.  If there’s a 4.5 WAR swing for Nunez for Jeter and about a 2.5 WAR hit for the 1/2 WAR/year aging regression, that still means that they’d be no better than a 94 win team without aging and and with Jeter, Pettitte, Mariano and Lee, right?
That doesn’t seem reasonable, although I suppose it’s partially fueled by down offensive seasons almost across the board in the most highly weighted season.

[13] Ah… then that changes the number in [14] to 99, which is harder to complain about.

“If there’s a 4.5 WAR swing for Nunez for Jeter”

That’s more like over 4 years than one, isn’t it?

[16]
Ah, right!  So we CAN still complain.
(relieved)

Happy Turkey day everyone.

Clay is SO DRUNK right now.

What could get the Yanks closer to 100 wins, beyond signing Lee, Jeter, & Mo? Here are a couple of possibilities:

1. Breakout season(s) from someone: maybe young SP, Gardner, Teix, or ARod
2. Unusually strong bench and RPs.  Imagine sustitutes all of whom were substantilly better than replacement level…
3. Trade for an strong, adddional SP

#1 is possible, but it’s simply a wish
#2 would require the Yanks to spend lot of money on backups, which they just don’t do
#3 isn’t going to happen, unless perhaps the Yanks are desperate

[20]

1. Gardner just did that. A-Rod and Teix need to show up for more than 8 weeks of the season each, and Jeter if signed needs to not suck. Granderson needs to show that the 2nd half is his true self moving forward.

2. How about having your DH not be a platoon of mediocre bench players ? Playing 9 on 8 sucks. See (1) above for how we got to 9 on 2 for large parts of last season.

3. With CC/Lee/Hughes/Pettitte/AJ you shouldn’t have to worry. Unless they don’t sign Lee, AJ contniues to shit the bed, Andy pitches his age, and Joba bites Hughes turning him into some Corpulent-Bovine-Hughes. Any one of those happens and you still have at least one arm in SWB to bring up before you panic.

Which teams are up-and-coming that I can root for?

The Kansas City Royals with their new face of the franchise at SS, Derek Jeter, and new ace, Joba ChamberReam. Although you wouldn’t be able to go to any of their home games due to the oppressive heat.

[20]
I think you’re leaving out the most important possibility: returns to form for A-Rod, an a least mediocre (for him) season from AJ, Teix hitting for more than 1/2 the season, a good season from Granderson - there is a LOT of room for improvement here, and a lot of this projection is heavily (38%?) weighted on what are at least reasonably likely to have been off years.

[22] So we get Larry Gura back in that deal? Dennis Leonard too?

Did anyone else hear that the dodgers are planning to non-tender Russel Martin? I wonder how cheaply he could be had.

So Jeter wants 6 years/$150M? Good luck with that.

[26] I’d like 6 years, $18 million for being a fan.

Pinstriper, I’m a wild-eyed optimist about Gardner.  Before the All-Star Game, he hit .309 with a .415 slugging.  After the All-Star Game, those figures were .233 and .322.  Maybe the half-season results were just due a small sample size.  Maybe pitchers learned his weaknesses.  OTOH maybe the problem was his hand injury. 

I’m hoping that a healthy Gardner puts up a full 2011 season with results like the first half of 2010.  Also, due to improved recognition of pitchers’ moves, he steals 65 bases.  Is that too much to ask?

The Yankees should negotiate downward from their original reported offer.