I’m thinking Freddy Garcia may be heading to the DL with an “injury” of some sort.

I bet it rhythms with lappendix.

Can you do an adjusted analysis substituting league average BABIP and HR/FB and see what the Yankees ERA would look like?

That’s basically what the stat xFIP tries to do. The Yankees are tied for first in the AL in xFIP overall, and second for starters xFIP.

No comment.

Garcia 2011: 15.3% K/BF, 7.2% BB/BF, 4.36 xFIP
Garcia 2012: 15.7% K/BF, 7.1% BB/BF, 3.95 xFIP

Every now and then I see one of these newfanlged stats and question its veractiy because of my eyeballs watching games. Garcia had some good games last year, this year he’s got nothing.  Does anyone out there in RLYland think he is pitching better in 12 than in 11?

I assume ther eis soemthign wrong, and my question is why does it always take the Yankees so long to see this - Wang (three worst starts in succession in baseball history if I am not mistaken using Game Score), Hughes, and now Garcia?

It’s an interesting question.
Our emotions are, understandably, strongly influenced by the results.
Is it actually possible that Garcia really is pitching better and it’s not working out?
Is it?

Yeah, I don’t think that xFIP considers that Fredo now has less velocity than Cano’s dad.

2011 Garcia: 87.2 mph average fastball velocity
2012 Garcia: 87.0 mph average fastball velocity

Damn you SG.

[7] SG, is the 2011 average fastball velocity for April 2011 or for all of 2011, including summer (warmer) months?

Hmm, his HR/FB% is about double his career rate. But a 42% LD rate can’t just be bad luck…

Here’s what different with Garcia this year.

2011 Garcia: .292 BABIP against, 22.3% LD, 8.2% HR/FB, 77.1% LOB
2012 Garcia: .440 BABIP against, 42.3% LD, 23.1% HR/FB, 41.0% LOB

I have no idea if he’s been unlucky or just bad.  That line drive percentage is some evidence it’s the latter, but the other stuff is probably less predictive.

But I think he should be pulled from the rotation for now regardless.

[7] SG, is the 2011 average fastball velocity for April 2011 or for all of 2011, including summer (warmer) months?

All of 2011.

Just announced, Garcia to the bullpen. Out of the rotation. Mitchell called up but not yet activated.

Freddy’s become a control/location pitcher. His effectiveness depends on getting calls on the corners and weak contact away, right ?

Otherwise he gets lit up with slow grapefruits over the middle of the plate.

It seems like the latter has been happening more, as his middling velocity has degraded from the high 80’s to the mid-80’s, and even the located pitches are getting hit.

The above would pretty much show up as inflated BABIP against, right ? Is that what we’re seeing ?

Most important game of the season?  Most important game of the season.

[14]
At least we have our Ace Lite to pitch it.
In other news, today is the first game of the rest of our lives.
Et in Illabria ego.

Cautiously optimistic

It’s hard to maintain my judicious optimism in the face of such wanton bunting.

Is everyone in church?

Ibanez is something of a base clogger.

[18] staining racks for wine storage in the basement.  So, yeah, church.

[19]
dred, I’d think a HR/out guy is about as “uncloggy” as you can get, no?

Bases fully clogged.  Too bad that’s an automatic out for us.

Bunt here by Granderson, right?

As I predicted, Granderson failed to get a hit.

Jeter got a gift on that checked swing, didn’t he?  Looked like it should have been a called strike anyway.

I feel dirty about this “rally.”

[25]  Agreed.  That was basically two strikes on one pitch.  But I won’t complain.

[26]
What goes around, comes around.  Happened to NYA a few times in the first week, didn’t it?

Should be thankful to Drake for any runs there.

2008 Cano

CC with 22 strikes, 12 balls, no runs. Something must be wrong.

3 innings on 41 pitches?

Tex is a bad baseball player.

Injury delay? (GD)

Swisher just left with some sort of hamstring problem.  Good times.

And now Swish is injured.

You know your roster is well-constructed when Androo Jones is your pinch-runner of choice.

Still can’t believe they chose Rapada instead of Maxwell.

Prince really ate that pitch up.

Hamburger (b)eats Hotdog.

Swisher injury = Return of Abreu?

Man-thought Jackson caught that.  Woot!

Wow, almost an amazing catch by Austin Jackson, but I’ll take the Grandy HR.

Hit outlandishly by our center cavalier.
Out.
Of the land (in the park), so to speak.

Jackson probably brings that down if he doesn’t run into the chain link fence. 

Also, Teix stinks.

Is Abreu going to be better than Dewayne Wise, currently hitting .371/.409/.677 for the AAA Barnstormers?

Tex has a .679 OPS. It has declined steadily since his peak in 2007. I really am starting to hate the guy. You always hear about Alex working with Long and fixing a few things and then going on a hot streak. Does that ever happen with Tex?

Edit: His OPS+ has also declined, so it’s not just OPS being down in general across the league.

Teixeira’s swing is very long. Maybe he’s losing bat speed or something, but it’s looking uglier and uglier these days.

If you take out that game in Fenway in which he got 2 cheap homers his line would stink even more. This team is getting old fast, I really think rebuilding is the best thing to do now

Look at the fearsome threesome leading off the bottom of the inning for NYA!
The team is near the top of the in offense, right?
Amazing.

And now it looks like Jeter is coming back to earth (though it might just be facing a bunch of tough righties).

Teix’s decline is pretty surprising.
It’s not just age, because he’s not that old.  There must be some adjustments he could make.

At least Tex has been much better than Pujols

I think Stewart’s pop-up rate is like 87%.

Read this article…then read the date:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/tom_verducci/01/21/mark.teixeira/index.html

Jeter’s attempting to get as high a BA with RISP as possible while driving in as few runs as possible.

He’s that captain-y, leaving the RBIs for others.

I heard ‘making his major league debut’ and then I changed the channel.

This place is really jumping today.

Time to go see Cabin in the Woods.  You gentlemen will have to complain without me.

Is Andy Phillips available?

Hm, bases loaded.  Not a good sign. For the Yankees.

Maybe we can get another walk.

Chavez is a true yankee.

I just got back from our company softball league. Our team hit like the Yankees. Pitched like ‘em too. You’d think it would be tough to get outscored by nearly 30 runs over two games, but you’d be wrong.

Is our starting catcher hurt? Is Stewarto-ey now the everyday player?  He seems to be playing every day; didn’t the plan for that eventuality involve bringing up Cervello-ey?

CC always has a personal catcher. Last two years it was Frankie, this year it’s Stewie.

Nice sac bunt to center field by Grandy.

How close was that to going out?  GD had it at the wall; since it wasn’t 40 feet past the wall, I figure it was a can o’ corn to mid-center, yes?

Hooray for correct calls at the plate by non-cyborg beings.

Stewart!

GD had it at the wall; since it wasn’t 40 feet past the wall, I figure it was a can o’ corn to mid-center, yes?

Nope, back of the warning track.  Jackson caught it and immediately bumped into the wall.

[72]
Should we doubt GD’s ball & strike visuals if the placement of fly balls is so inconsistent?

[73] yes, I remember someone finding miscategorized pitches that were way out of the zone being shown as straight down the middle on pitch-fx, but the gameday system for placing hits is a separate system, and totally mysterious to me; it could be an intern.

Not sure if it was a bad idea to walk Worth there

Andrewy!

Yay AndrUw!

Still not Fredo-proof.

Sabathia at 106. Leave him out there? I say yes.

[73] yes, I remember someone finding miscategorized pitches that were way out of the zone being shown as straight down the middle on pitch-fx, but the gameday system for placing hits is a separate system, and totally mysterious to me; it could be an intern.

The pitchFX system is not connected to the hit location you see on gameday.  FieldFX is not used by MLB as of now.  The stringers entering the data from the game select those locations so they aren’t entirely accurate.

Also, the problems you see with miscategorized pitches are usually do to the stringer missing a pitch.  When pitchFX tracks a ball, the stringer in the pressbox needs to identify what the call was (ball/strike/foul/etc.) before the info can be sent to gameday.  If he misses one, it messes up the sequence until the next batter.

[80] Does MLB have their own people, or do they use BIS/STATS or someone?

[81] yeah, even automated data collection systems end up with weird quirks, when people get involved anything can happen.

bb-ref tells me that Tex is coming in at 12 WAR for his first three pinstriped years; in his first three seasons, Tino gave us just under 10 WAR.

and yet we know that Tino was a TruYankee, whereas Tex is teh suck.

OTOH, a year like this and Tex could fall behind Tino’s pace….

[80] Does MLB have their own people, or do they use BIS/STATS or someone?

MLB has their own peops in each city.  They usually rotate 3 or 4 guys for each stadium.

OGA, how much of that is 2009? And was Tino being paid like he’s the best 1B in baseball?

using Robertson here just feels decadent—like opening a nice older Bordeaux with a burger or something….

85—0.0; but we didn’t pay Tino anything that year either, so—

ah.  now I see your point.

WAR tells us that Tex’s 2009 is slightly (5.5>5.2) better than Tino’s 1997.

get off my damn lawn, WAR!

[to avoid any ambiguity, I’ll admit that I can’t stand Tex either…]

I think Tino and Teix trended differently.
Don’t think anyone was anything but thrilled with Teix at first.
So the “1st 3 years” thing seems somewhat deceptive.

Tex stinks. Each year is worse than the prior - and he had the entire off season to fix his stupid approach at the plate batting elfty and clearly did nothing. wow - another pop up, what a shock. Watch Cabrera or Fielder or Gonzalez for 1b who know how to hit. And cabrera plays 3b! The next 4.8 yars of watching tex stink is going to drive me to drink.

Had to look up this thread so I could be ashamed of myself.

http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/comments/cnnsi_heyman_yankees_reach_agreement_with_teixeira_on_8_year_180m_deal