The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Monday, October 15, 2012

The Task Ahead

I am trying to assess just how deep of a hole the Yankees are now in so I figured out the win probabilities for the remaining games in the ALCS should it go seven games.  I’ve assumed Game 7 would have CC Sabathia on three days rest.  Here are the pitching matchups and win probabilities for each of the theoretical remaining games.

Date ALCS Det NY Yankee Win Probability
16-Oct Game 3 Justin Verlander Phil Hughes 34.2%
17-Oct Game 4 Max Scherzer CC Sabathia 51.1%
18-Oct Game 5 Doug Fister Andy Pettitte 44.3%
20-Oct Game 6 Anibal Sanchez Hiroki Kuroda 53.1%
21-Oct Game 7 Justin Verlander CC Sabathia 44.9%

In order to win this series, the Yankees have to win four of the five remaining games.  Here are the ways to achieve that with various remaining permutations of the series based on the per game win probability:

Win Games 3/4/5/6: .0411
Win Games 3/4/5/7: .034761
Win Games 3/4/6/7: .041667
Win Games 3/5/6/7: .036122
Win Games 4/5/6/7: .053972
Total: 20.8%

At this point the Yankees’ overall odds of winning this series are around 20.8%.  Should they lose tomorrow that drops to 5.4%.  If by some miracle they win, their chances to win the series jump up pretty significantly.

Win Games 4/5/6: .120204
Win Games 4/5/7: .101641
Win Games 4/6/7: .1213832
Win Games 5/6/7: .10562
Total: 44.9%

Can Phil Hughes beat Justin Verlander?  It’s not very likely, but it could happen.  Hughes has pitched reasonably well against Detroit over the last three seasons (3.56 ERA, 4.02 FIP).  He’s been particularly good in his two starts at Detroit (16 IP, 1 R, 4 BB, 16 K).  On the other side, the Yankees have actually hit reasonably well against Justin Verlander over the same period (3.57 ERA, 3.94 FIP).  That’s not just a DNYS artifact either as he’s pitched against them four times in Comerica Park(27 IP, 30 H, 10 R, 13 BB, 30 K).

The Yankees can win tomorrow’s game.  But not unless their offense does something it hasn’t done so far this series(and most of the postseason) and shows up.

You know Suzyn…

--Posted at 11:11 am by SG / 48 Comments | - (0)

Comments

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Pardon me for jacking the thread, but David Laurila’s latest interview article for FG is up (this time about Derek Jeter and the 2001 WS): http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/brian-anderson-vs-derek-jeter-oct-30-2001. Great read.

If you have time, how would the odds change if they pitched C.C. on short rest tomorrow and had him available for short rest game 6 or full rest game 7?

If all you do is flip CC and Hughes in Games 3 and 4 the Yankees’ series odds go up by about 1.9%.

double post

Can we just move ahead to the Hot Stove/planning for 2013 phase?

Resign Kuroda and Pettitte.  Qualifying offers to Swisher and Soriano (please opt-out!), but let them go. Yay draft picks!

What else?  Can we trade Granderson?  Any replacements out there for Martin?

How about waiting two days?

Francessa, who else, has the answer.  Swisher’s can’t hit good pitching and outside of Verlander are there two better pitchers in the game then Fister and Sanchez.

At this point I just want a non-sweep result to the series so that we can see more baseball. I want this crazy love/hate season to continue just a bit longer. For all of the fits this club has given us RLYWers, it’s been a fun season and should be satisfying as well, with the best record in the AL and reaching the ALCS.

Plus, with all of the magic from Ibanez and CC over the last 3 weeks, I believe this team will at least do enough in Detroit to get us back on board/create a CT to make us believe they can win the series.

Is it really impossible that the Yankees win three straight on the road against this solid, but decidedly unspectacular Detroit Tigers team? Especially with a big rebound from Cano, and Sabathia pitching game four? It’s not impossible! That’s what we have going for us.

[9]  I seem to remember the 1996 team losing the first two games at home to a team with superior starting pitching as well…or the 2001 team losing the first two in a best of FIVE series to an Oakland team w/ great pitching and great hitting w/ the reigning AL MVP (and would finish 2nd that year) who also had the best non-Bonds hitting season of the 2000’s.

So, no, it isn’t at all impossible.  It of course isn’t *probable*.  But far, far from impossible.

[10] Those teams had something though, this squad seems to lack: An apparent interest in the art and discipline of hitting.

9 I would agree but for Verlander who seems like way too big of an obstacle for this punchless squad and as a kicker Hughes vs Miggy/Prince is scary.
Is there a chance Miggy won’t go deep at least once?  In 6 ABs this year (small sample I know) he has an OPS of 1429

I hate this team.  I want it over as soon as possible.

[13] It feels to me that the Yankees, despite having the best record, have been ill served with timing of travel days, and the whole general scheduling. Plus, off days suck. And the Yankee pitching have been great and should be getting the majority of the headlines. But yeah, let’s get this sweep out of the way.

[11] Yeah but a lot of that is hindsight.  IDK what sites everyone was complaining on at the time, but I doubt highly that there was a calm then that the team would do what it took to win.  The 1996 squad for example had a lot of baggage from the 1995 sqaud; Wetteland being able to close out games, a lot of the players on the team were on the failing 1995 team, and the new ones had some question marks (Tino, Jeter, etc).  2001 team there may have been more confidence…but probably not much more.

So basically…everything his hindsight.  This team has the pitching chops, and even if they don’t get any *better* at hitting they could get *luckier*.  Not even implying they have bad luck now, but that some more flares could fall in, etc.  Then we may end up remember them as a team that was beset by problems (injuries) but still came up big when it mattered.  Not anytime soon of course, but in 10 years when myself and others are pointing out why the 2022 team isn’t screwed wink

Is there a chance Miggy won’t go deep at least once?  In 6 ABs this year (small sample I know) he has an OPS of 1429

Completely.  Irrelevent.

Some people believe whatever stats they want to believe Mike.  It’s not worth fighting.

[14] And, I would bring the entire pitching staff back, except Soriano.

A rotation of CC, Kuroda, Pettitte, Hughes, Nova, Pineda, Phelps, and pen of Mo, Robertson, Joba, Logan, Rapada, Eppley, and the 6th/7th SPs should be very good.

Basically my hatred is mostly directed at ARod, Granderson, Swisher, and Cano.

If they could figure out a way to get rid of all four (getting talent back for Cano and Granderson), I’d love it.

Has it been two days already?

[16] I believe Phil Hughes is the relevant portion of that data set, so yes, he will go deep.

Someone on Lohud mentioned something about Paul O’Neill coming through in the post season but only having 3 good seasons as a Yankee.  I had to look and IMO he had about 7 good years as a Yankee.

Just a silly stat I looked at:

O’Neill played in 19 post-season series and hit under .200 5 times.
A-Rod played in 16 series (omitting the first two as he only had one AB), hit under .200 6 times.
Cano has played in 11 series and hit under .200 5 times.
Swisher has played in 11 series and hit under .200 6 times.

Swisher, no matter how you slice and dice this, is the worst post-season performer currently in baseball.

Tried to post a link but it came up as blacklisted—Deadspin has an exhaustive list of derogatory tweets aimed at A-Rod. What it lacks in inventiveness, it makes up for in ... volume.

[22] I liked the one where they called him the F word

I’d much prefer for you to be right, but isn’t there a problem with those 5 ways of winning 4/5 not being independent?  My quick reaction is that we need to subtract 4 times the probability of winning all 5 games since that’s the overlap among these ways to win 4 games.  If I have that right, we need to reduce the odds by 7.38%.

Let’s go Yankees.  Shock the world and beat Verlander, and get this thing turned around.

This team is interesting.  For a team that doesn’t quit, and has persevered over so much adversity, it’s a hard team to like.  Guys making a lot of money, a feast-or-famine offense, a best player in Cano who is very laid back, a lack of outwardly passionate Paul-O’Neill types.  But they can still do this.

It is hard to ignore that Cano has a history of poor ALDS performance. Here’s hoping he can get it going starting Tuesday. No one has ever had an 0-26 post season stretch and this one should run its course.

As I have said, time to switch Nunez to the OF in winter ball and let him play RF with 400 PA’s next year. He has speed to burn and it appears a RF’s arm. I hate them wasting a potential very good bat.

Granderson may snap out of it in 2013 as it is his walk year. And with a diminished trade value over his trade value a year ago, just bring him back and see what he does. Maybe he is the new Dave Kingman, but looking for a big payday could pay big time for the 2013 team.

The Doomed Yankees of ‘12.

Let’s go Yankees.  Shock the world and beat Verlander, and get this thing turned around.

I’ll keep the positive vibe going and say, “Yay! no lost tonight!”

[26] I’m not sure if Nunez is a very good bat, but he can probably be about league average, which is valuable.

League average outfield bat?

My quick reaction is that we need to subtract 4 times the probability of winning all 5 games since that’s the overlap among these ways to win 4 games.  If I have that right, we need to reduce the odds by 7.38%.

I don’t follow, although it’s certainly possible I’m wrong.  I didn’t include the probability of winning all five games, I just did a straight probability of each of the five combinations of winning four and summed them.

I’d love to get my hopes up, but let’s be honest here: the Yankees have a less than zero percent chance of winning this series. It’s like the AL East / American League title that the Red Sox won. Why even bother showing up? We all know what the outcome is.

Congratulations to the Red Sox on their (its?) 2012 World Series championship!

When the offensive correction comes, this team is going to put up some runs.

I just hope it happens this season.

Those teams had something though, this squad seems to lack: An apparent interest in the art and discipline of hitting Captain named Jeter.

Fixed.

When the offensive correction comes, this team is going to put up some runs.

Pitching correction.  downer

Neither of our corner IF will ever slug .500 again.

[30] Normally the probability of either of two things happening is the sum of their probabilities minus the probability that both happen.  To give a simpler example, say the Yankees win the next 3 games and are 50/50 in each of the final two, then their odds of winning are 50% from game 6 plus 50 % from game 7 minus 25% from the chance that they would have won both game 6 and the unplayed game 7, for the 75% chance that we expect.  If we just added the odds of winning game 6 to the odds of winning game 7, we would overestimate the combined odds.

The same effect is in play for winning 4 of 5, since the odds that the Yankees would have won all 5 games (even the unplayed game 7) are part of all 5 of those possibilities, but should only be counted once.

An alternative way to calculate this would be to include the odds of losing the non-included game in each probability other than sweeping games 3-6 to make the 5 scenarios mutually exclusive.  For example, the odds of winning games 3467 are .342*.511*.557*.531*.449 = 2.32% where the .557 is the probability of losing game 5.

[32] What if Cano’s O-fer IS the current correction from his hitting .600 the last week of the season?

The middle of the order was awful all year with RISP… just plain awful.  I am fascinated by this “correction” you speak of.  Ask Kuroda and the other starting pitchers about the “norm” for this offense.  The only correction is that Russel Martin is due to hit a HR.

we shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender,

[38] As long as the Soviets and Americans and Canadians and Australians do all the dying. Not a big Winnie fan. Indians and Kiwi’s too did a lot of dying for the empire.

I’m thinking, if we are going to have a chance NYY pitchers should throw to the NYY, and DET to DET like in little league. Hughes should really be able to get Granderson and Cano going at the plate.

The Brits did plenty of dying also.

from espn, something that makes sense but won’t happen because Swisher is sure to hit without the awful Yankee fans berating him:

With the idea of shaking up the lineup going into Game 3 against the Detroit Tigers’ ace Justin Verlander, Yankees GM Brian Cashman said that Brett Gardner could be a starting outfielder.

“He still might play a role in this thing,” Cashman said on ESPN New York 98.7 FM’s “The Michael Kay Show.” “You could very well see Gardner in this big outfield that Detroit has. The way our offense is, it is a possibility. He deserves consideration considering what is going on right now.”

Gardner could start in the outfield with Nick Swisher or Curtis Granderson or, in some arrangements, both sitting. Previously, Yankees manager Joe Girardi has said he is hesitant to play Gardner because he has only had three major league at-bats since April. Gardner missed most of the season with an elbow problem.

Gardner is 5-for-11 in his career against Verlander. Swisher is a .180 hitter (61 at-bats) against Verlander. Swisher has never been able to hit in the playoffs. Gardner could start in left with Ichiro Suzuki moving to right.

Girardi could also bench Granderson, putting the hot Raul Ibanez in right instead of DH. This would allow Eric Chavez to DH. Chavez is a .360 hitter in 25 at-bats.

“Does it mean we will make a change? It doesn’t mean we will make a change,” Cashman said. “Gardy is a tremendous, talented player, who can get on base, wreak havoc and play great defense. We’ll see.”

I’m skeptical but with that big OF and a fly ball pitcher on the mound and how unlikely it is that Swisher will hit maybe its the way to go.

The same effect is in play for winning 4 of 5, since the odds that the Yankees would have won all 5 games (even the unplayed game 7) are part of all 5 of those possibilities, but should only be counted once.

OK, that makes sense.  So yeah, figure that it should look like this.

Win Games 3/4/5/6: 2.3%
Win Games 3/4/5/7: 1.6%
Win Games 3/4/6/7: 2.3%
Win Games 3/5/6/7: 1.8%
Win Games 4/5/6/7: 5.4%
Total: 13.4%

[42] What’s the worst that can happen? He goes 0-4 with 3 Ks? That’s basically guaranteed from A-Rod, Granderson and Swisher so what’s the difference? I’d start Gardner.

Where’s Andruw Jones when you need him? I’d rather watch him than those guys right now.

NO! Not Andruw Jones. Ever again.

And I assume if they lose the next 2, we may never see Swish again either.

You know what we can use? A young OF who can hit and field , like Austin Jackson. Why can’t our MiL system ever produce someone like that.

Actually, it is Cestipedes that annoys me even more. It was just money.

[17] True.  But like Granderson right now on a curve in the dirt, sometimes I just can’t help but take a swing.

[26] I’ve pushed for Nunez in the OF too.  It’s not like there isn’t a history of Yankee SS with throwing issues succeeding in the OF (Mantle, Mercer, Tresh).  Now I don’t expect Nunez to be nearly as successful as those guys.  But I don’t think it’s a stretch to say in his age 26-29 years he couldn’t wRC+ something like 105 (maybe 2 runs worse than an average RF), but add 4 runs in baserunning, and be average or even a little better on defense.  So maybe his range as an OF is 1-3 wins.  I think we can probably live with a 1 win player in RF if that allows them to stay under $189M and sign other pieces to stay competitive.  And of course if he ends up as a plus defender or no stress for defense allows his offense to bloom and he’s more like a 3 win player…

For Granderson, definitely don’t give him away for pennies.  Or out of spite b/c of a poor second half.  I think trading Granderson can be part of a larger strategy.  For example, sign BJ Upton to play CF, leave Gardner in LF, and let Nunez/Ichiro be a platoon RF.  Trade Granderson to get pieces.  Of course, a non-horrible solution as well is swap Gardner/Granderson in the field, sign Upton to be the RF of the future, and let Nunez be the 4th OF.  If Nunez does well enough he’s the LF in 2014 and Granderson walks, hopefully getting a pick back.

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