Monday, October 15, 2012
The Task Ahead
I am trying to assess just how deep of a hole the Yankees are now in so I figured out the win probabilities for the remaining games in the ALCS should it go seven games. I’ve assumed Game 7 would have CC Sabathia on three days rest. Here are the pitching matchups and win probabilities for each of the theoretical remaining games.
|Date||ALCS||Det||NY||Yankee Win Probability|
|16-Oct||Game 3||Justin Verlander||Phil Hughes||34.2%|
|17-Oct||Game 4||Max Scherzer||CC Sabathia||51.1%|
|18-Oct||Game 5||Doug Fister||Andy Pettitte||44.3%|
|20-Oct||Game 6||Anibal Sanchez||Hiroki Kuroda||53.1%|
|21-Oct||Game 7||Justin Verlander||CC Sabathia||44.9%|
In order to win this series, the Yankees have to win four of the five remaining games. Here are the ways to achieve that with various remaining permutations of the series based on the per game win probability:
Win Games 3/4/5/6: .0411
Win Games 3/4/5/7: .034761
Win Games 3/4/6/7: .041667
Win Games 3/5/6/7: .036122
Win Games 4/5/6/7: .053972
At this point the Yankees’ overall odds of winning this series are around 20.8%. Should they lose tomorrow that drops to 5.4%. If by some miracle they win, their chances to win the series jump up pretty significantly.
Win Games 4/5/6: .120204
Win Games 4/5/7: .101641
Win Games 4/6/7: .1213832
Win Games 5/6/7: .10562
Can Phil Hughes beat Justin Verlander? It’s not very likely, but it could happen. Hughes has pitched reasonably well against Detroit over the last three seasons (3.56 ERA, 4.02 FIP). He’s been particularly good in his two starts at Detroit (16 IP, 1 R, 4 BB, 16 K). On the other side, the Yankees have actually hit reasonably well against Justin Verlander over the same period (3.57 ERA, 3.94 FIP). That’s not just a DNYS artifact either as he’s pitched against them four times in Comerica Park(27 IP, 30 H, 10 R, 13 BB, 30 K).
The Yankees can win tomorrow’s game. But not unless their offense does something it hasn’t done so far this series(and most of the postseason) and shows up.
You know Suzyn…
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