The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Tuesday, May 8, 2012

The Postseason Implications of This Week’s Series with Tampa Bay

The Yankees begin a six game homestand tonight with Tampa Bay.  Tampa Bay is tied for first place with Baltimore, but it’s a pretty safe bet that they’re better than Baltimore and are a bigger threat to the Yankees’ chances at winning the division. 

At the beginning of the season, the Yankees projected about three games better than Tampa Bay (94 wins vs. 91 wins) but the Rays now have a 3.5 game lead and the Yankees are a bit weaker with Michael Pineda on the shelf.  Based on what’s happened so far and playing out the rest of the season according to how the teams project going forward gives me a final AL East standings projection that looks something like this.

TMWLRSRADivWC1WC2PS%W+/-RS+/-RA+/-
Rays917176168244.6%26.0%12.8%83.4%2.1-4-1
Yankees917183371842.8%26.0%13.2%82.0%-3.7-46
Red Sox84788417696.9%9.2%16.6%32.7%-7.11235
Blue Jays82807737554.9%8.3%13.4%26.6%1.20-21
Orioles78847197830.9%2.3%4.8%8.0%8.36-36

W: Projected final 2011 wins
L: Projected final 2011 losses
RS: Projected final 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)
W+/-: 2012 revised projected wins minus 2012 pre-season projected wins
RS+/-: 2012 revised projected runs scored minus 2012 pre-season projected runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2012 revised projected runs allowed minus 2012 pre-season projected runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

The pitching matchups for this series are as follows.

Tuesday, May 8: The Undefeated James Shields (5-0, 3.05 ERA) vs. Ivan Nova (3-1, 5.58 ERA)
Wednesday, May 9: Jeff Niemann (2-3, 4.05 ERA) vs. David Phelps (0-1, 3.74 ERA)
Thursday, May 10: David Price (5-1, 2.35 ERA) vs. CC Sabathia (4-0, 4.15 ERA)

So here are how the standings and postseason odds change based on the various potential outcomes of this series.

Rays 3-0WLRSRADivWC1WC2PS%W+/-RS+/-RA+/-
Rays936976168261.0%18.8%8.3%88.1%3.8-4-1
Yankees897383371826.2%28.5%17.0%71.7%-5.3-46
Red Sox83798417695.6%11.7%15.4%32.8%-7.51235
Blue Jays83797737556.2%10.2%15.1%31.5%1.50-21
Orioles78847197831.0%2.8%5.4%9.2%8.36-36
Rays 2-1WLRSRADivWC1WC2PS%W+/-RS+/-RA+/-
Rays927076168251.9%21.4%12.5%85.7%2.7-4-1
Yankees907283371836.4%26.4%14.6%77.4%-4.3-46
Red Sox83798417695.6%10.5%16.7%32.8%-7.41235
Blue Jays83797737555.4%9.6%12.9%27.9%1.40-21
Orioles78847197830.8%2.0%6.5%9.3%8.06-36
Yankees 2-1WLRSRADivWC1WC2PS%W+/-RS+/-RA+/-
Yankees917183371844.7%24.9%13.9%83.5%-3.4-46
Rays917176168240.4%24.5%13.2%78.1%1.8-4-1
Red Sox83798417697.9%9.9%16.1%34.0%-7.21235
Blue Jays82807737555.5%8.4%12.7%26.5%1.20-21
Orioles78847197831.5%3.0%5.7%10.2%8.26-36
Yankees 3-0WLRSRADivWC1WC2PS%W+/-RS+/-RA+/-
Yankees927083371852.1%22.1%11.3%85.5%-2.6-46
Rays907276168233.9%26.6%15.7%76.2%0.8-4-1
Red Sox84788417697.7%11.2%15.1%34.0%-7.11235
Blue Jays82807737555.1%7.6%14.5%27.2%1.20-21
Orioles78847197831.1%2.4%6.4%10.0%8.46-36

Sure, it’s early.  And yes, the Yankees play the Rays enough times over the rest of the season to make up any ground they lose in this series, but this is still a pretty important series.  You might even say it’s the most important series of the season so far.

--Posted at 9:45 am by SG / 23 Comments | - (0)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

Stupid opening day loss.  That one still haunts me.

Interesting NYT article on defensive shifts in general and Rays shifts specifically.  Story quotes John Dewan of Baseball Info Solutions and Fielding Bible.  Also KLong seemed to think Rays were somwhat lucky against us but Tex would continue to struggle against them.  I wonder if Yankee FO and Binder are seriously investigating whether we should shift more.

Seems like whenever the Yankees shift it does the opposite of what it’s supposed to.

How depressing are these projections if you’re an O’s fan?  Nine games over .500 on May 8th and you still end up last and below .500.

[3] I wonder how many teams abandoned correct strategy early on because of poor results that were luck-based?  IDK at this point if the shifting the Yankees have done is correct strategy or not, but in an extremely SSS I’d hate for it to be abandoned because a few jam-shots (I’ve only seen the shifts a few times and those are the types of hits that have gone against them) beat it.

“Hard liners into the glove are worth more than slap grounders down the 3B line.” - Teis

[3] Seems like whenever the Yankees shift do anything*, it does the opposite of what it’s supposed to.

I’ll see myself out and over to the complaint thread.

At least Montero isn’t hitting the snot out of the ball.

*Excluding re-signing Derek Sanderson Jeter when I was ready to take him out behind the barn and perform the appendectomy myself.

[3] I remember that series - the Rays not only had the shift on but the pitchers were all hitting their spots and pitching to the defense. The shift is pretty stupid if you can’t command your pitches and end up pitching a guy outside with everyone lined up for the pull hit.

Didn’t the Devil Rays also shift the pitcher, and have him throwing from the flat ground over between the mound and 1B ?

Maybe it was just my eyes.

5 Maddon made that point about what sticking what is the right thing to do.

9- Wonder if the Yankees could try that. Their pitchers have more experience throwing off flat ground.

Shift works against dead pull hitter (Tex hitting lefty) it won’t against a real hitter or one who will agree to poke a singel and stop swingign from the heels. Tex Stinks. 4.7 more years, ugh.

anyway, Girardi doesn’t need to shift - he can just call for another intentional walk. (They are going to set a record, right?)

“the Yankees are a bit weaker with Michael Pineda on the shelf”

Didn’t some other pitcher get hurt too?
Or was that a nightmare I had?

Didn’t some other pitcher get hurt too?
Or was that a nightmare I had?

You’re thinking AJ Burnett, who broke his noggin bone or something. But that happened after he was kicked off the team for loud sucking traded.

Shift works against dead pull hitter (Tex hitting lefty) it won’t against a real hitter

That’s the whole point of Maddon shifting.  It isn’t true.  Dead pull hitters need an EXTREME shift.  But all but the rarest of hitters have tendencies, and even if there is a shift they’ll probably keep those tendencies.  I mean, they’ve been doing it in the outfield for decades right?  How often with Jeter up do you see the OF shifted towards RF?  Infield is no different, it’s just a matter of getting our heads around it.  Now, there is a CORRECT shift for every hitter, and maybe Girardi isn’t using the right one(s).

or one who will agree to poke a singel and stop swingign from the heels.

I think you’re implying for batters to “guide” the ball against the shift.  I’d hazard that there are very, VERY few hitters who can do that consistently. 

Tex Stinks. 4.7 more years, ugh

When I read stuff like this, I root even MORE for the player to rebound.

15: exactly!
NYT: “Dewan said that heading into 2011, the Milwaukee Brewers “may have had the absolute worst infield you could have put together,” but by increasing from 22 defensive shifts in 2010 to 170 shifts in 2011, they saved themselves 56 runs.”
I hope at the Yankees are at least seriously studying the idea of employing the shift more often.

Yeah, the whole thing about the shifts is that the Rays have been at the forefront of defensive stats for years now, so they likely know better than pretty much every other team around (maybe Oakland? They’ve been working with defensive stats for some time now, as well).

So yeah, the Yankees should definitely try to follow their suit, but they should invest in the research (I am sure they are, but it does not appear to have paid off so far, as Girardi’s shifts have not been great).

{15} “...root even MORE…” Well, good luck with that. It has been almost two years of him flailign away as a lefty. At some point someone has gotta realize that whatever it is he is doing isn’t working.

Then again, Jeter seems to have rediscovered the ability to hit after 1.5 seasons of general malaise.

But is the consensus here that players can not shoot for different sides of the field when there is a huge shift? Didn’t Fielder do it against the yankees a few times?  Ortiz? I am nto talkig about a true hit em where they aint - but when a huge section of the field has no one, can they really not do it? I could when I played softball smile

I’m pretty sure everyone is rooting for Tex. you can still do that while realizing that he has been declining gradually for five years now.

Shifting seems like a fine idea, provided you have good data on the hitters tendencies and your pitchers can actually execute their pitches. 

Btw, I’ve seen Yankee infielders make plays on balls that were due to less extreme shifts (aka “shading up the middle”) - usually Robbie Cano playing over by second base.  Those don’t lodge in the memory quite the way the failures do though.

The Yankees begin a six game homestand tonight with Tampa Bay.

Why doesn’t this analysis include the implications of games 4, 5 and 6 against Tampa Bay?

[18] Slight difference though - Jeter is a HOF talent. Teix is a hall of very good prime that has clearly passed and is too stubborn to take what the defense is giving him talent.

Sorry, but any projections system predicting that the Red Sox will have a winning record is broken beyond repair.

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