Friday, July 27, 2012
The Postseason Implications of this series with Boston
We’re down to a mere 12 remaining games against Boston this year, with three of those slated for this weekend in the first road series at DNYS for Boston. How we’ve gotten to four days from August with Boston making their first trip to the Bronx I don’t really understand, but here we are. So we’ll pick this up from the the last time I ran these.
Anyway, the Yankees had a chance at really hurting Boston’s somewhat slim division title chances over this past week as the Red Sox have lost 5 of their last seven. If that sounds familiar, it should because it’s exactly what the Yankees did over the same time period. So no ground gained, which is annoying, but better than the alternative.
The Yankees can’t eliminate Boston this weekend, but they can make it pretty close to impossible for the Red Sox to catch them. Here’s how the AL East’s postseason odds stand as of this morning. The overall odds for all the teams are actually a bit lower than this but I removed the variance from the simulations to focus on the impact of the series, so keep that in mind.
| TM | W | L | Div | WC1 | WC2 | PS% |
| Yankees | 95.1 | 66.9 | 93.0% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 98.5% |
| Rays | 82.2 | 79.8 | 2.0% | 8.5% | 13.7% | 24.2% |
| Red Sox | 81.3 | 80.7 | 2.0% | 5.8% | 10.3% | 18.1% |
| Blue Jays | 80.3 | 81.8 | 2.0% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 11.3% |
| Orioles | 77.3 | 84.7 | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 2.5% |
Here’s how those change based the possible outcomes of this three game set.
| Red Sox 3-0 | W | L | Div | WC1 | WC2 | PS% |
| Yankees | 93.1 | 68.9 | 94.5% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 97.0% |
| Red Sox | 82.6 | 79.4 | 1.5% | 10.8% | 17.7% | 30.0% |
| Rays | 81.2 | 80.8 | 0.5% | 6.8% | 14.2% | 21.5% |
| Blue Jays | 79.3 | 82.7 | 1.5% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 13.0% |
| Orioles | 76.3 | 85.7 | 0.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.0% |
| Red Sox 2-1 | W | L | Div | WC1 | WC2 | PS% |
| Yankees | 95.3 | 66.7 | 96.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 97.5% |
| Rays | 83.0 | 79.1 | 0.0% | 9.0% | 11.5% | 20.5% |
| Red Sox | 82.7 | 79.3 | 1.0% | 6.8% | 14.5% | 22.3% |
| Blue Jays | 80.2 | 81.8 | 2.0% | 1.3% | 5.5% | 8.8% |
| Orioles | 79.0 | 83.0 | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 4.5% |
| Yankees 2 -1 | W | L | Div | WC1 | WC2 | PS% |
| Yankees | 95.8 | 66.2 | 99.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 100.0% |
| Rays | 82.2 | 79.8 | 0.0% | 6.3% | 15.2% | 21.5% |
| Red Sox | 81.2 | 80.8 | 0.0% | 3.5% | 8.3% | 11.8% |
| Blue Jays | 80.0 | 82.0 | 0.0% | 2.0% | 6.8% | 8.8% |
| Orioles | 77.5 | 84.5 | 0.0% | 0.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Yankees 3 -0 | W | L | Div | WC1 | WC2 | PS% |
| Yankees | 97.3 | 64.8 | 99.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Rays | 83.1 | 78.9 | 1.0% | 10.8% | 17.3% | 29.1% |
| Red Sox | 81.1 | 80.9 | 0.0% | 4.5% | 7.8% | 12.3% |
| Blue Jays | 80.1 | 81.9 | 0.0% | 2.5% | 7.5% | 10.0% |
| Orioles | 78.1 | 83.9 | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% |
Like I said, once you return variability to the simulations the Yankees odds of making the postseason in the last two scenarios isn’t really 100.0%. But it’s pretty damn high.
Your pitching matchups for the weekend are:
Friday, July 27, 7:05 PM ET
Aaron Cook vs. Phil Hughes
Saturday, July 28, 4:05 PM ET
Jon Lester vs. CC Sabathia
Sunday, July 29, 8:05 PM ET
Felix Doubront vs. Hiroki Kuroda
Those seem like pretty favorable matchups for the Yankees overall. Aaron Cook’s been pretty effective despite racking up strikeouts with the frequency of a Yankee hit with RISP, and every Hughes start in DNYS has the potential for setting a record for HRs allowed by a pitcher, so that game seems like the one with the highest variablity. I think the Yankees can probably split the next two games at the very least, so tonight’s game is the key I think.
Missing Alex Rodriguez for this series stinks, but at least Boston is still missing David Ortiz. I’d lay 50/50 odds that Eric Chavez will be healthy by the end of this series, assuming Jayson Nix gets the starts on Saturday and Sunday with lefties going.
I really, really, really would love a sweep, because with the way the Yankees played on the West Coast they owe it to us. But taking two out of three would also suffice.
Comments
FWIW, the Providence Journal concurs.
http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/content/20120726-its-a-make-or-break-weekend-for-the-red-sox.ece
Go Yankees.
i know some people dont like the yankees red sox games but i love them because they are always on tv in ireland.
2 out of 3 should be achievable. crikey Boston’s pitchers are terrible.
Something, something…Hughes…Olmpics…DNYS…Torch Ceremony.
[2] Pedro/Schilling/Lowe they are not.
Ben Cherrington on radio this morning implied that this series would determine whether TWN are buyers or sellers. I’d like to see the Yankees win, but it might be better for us in the long run for them to remain in the hunt, so to speak, rather than start making moves that could help them next year and beyond.
Other than Ellsbury, who would we want ?
Their catcher. His ops+ may be higher than Martin and Stewart combined.
Their catcher. His ops+ may be higher than Martin and Stewart combined.
The overall odds for all the teams
SG- Just was thinking about something with this new playoff format.
What if you still considered the final 4 teams the ‘postseason’ teams and you call that 1 game playoff some non-regular season but non-postseason game. So, then you factor that ~50% that you get through the 1 game play off to the “real” playoffs.
I mean, when I look at the Rays, they have a 20% chance of making the playoffs, and then a 50% change of being bounced 24 hours after the season ends.
[9] Right. Under this format, not all “playoff” teams are created equal.
Baltimore’s continued success is so baffling. A negative 50 run differential and they’re five games over .500.
[9] - I like it. The Yankees playoff odds are still around 95% but the Red Sox odds fall to 10%.
Good work!
The overall odds for all the teams are actually a bit lower than this but I removed the variance from the simulations to focus on the impact of the series, so keep that in mind.
If that isn’t changing the underlying assumptions to make the Yankees look better, I don’t know what is!
[0] So, it looked odd to me that Baltimore would project to only win 77 games given where they already are. Looked on BBRef and their current pythag wpct. If they played the rest of the season with their current pythag, they’d win 80 games. So curious: has Baltimore’s team lost enough talent going forward that they’ll play worse than their pythag going forward? Ore are they the luckiest team ever, in that they’re already 11 games ahead of their pythag, and their RS/RA is *also* outperforming their true talent by 4 or 5 games so far?
Edit: I suppose it could also be SOS is considerably more difficult for Baltimore from here on out.
I just don’t understand how the Yankees’ odds of winning the division can increase by getting swept.
[6] I’d take Lester in a heartbeat(for the right price). As poorly as he’s been this year, with his track record he’s a good candidate to rebound soon. He’s good protection against another injury, may be able to talk him into being a long-man while he works out his problems (allowing Phelps to get innings in AAA), and isn’t a FA until after next year. If he rebounds to being a 2+ WAR pitcher next year - never mind 4+ - not only does that fill a spot in next year’s rotation, but also means you offer him arbitration (unless he’s willing to sign a reasonable deal going forward) and get the pick in 2014. Or maybe an average or better pitcher at a reasonable price for 2014 while you continue to grow from within.
[15] Mix of true talent and actual record. I think assuming Boston is better if they sweep the Yankees, they win more games against the Rays going forward, and the Rays are a larger threat to take the division from the Yankees than Boston is (even if Boston sweeps). That, and he didn’t remove *all* the uncertainty. So running another 1000 sims with the same assumption (Boston sweep) may have a slightly different result.
There’s a reason I use the word postseason instead of playoff.
I just don’t understand how the Yankees’ odds of winning the division can increase by getting swept.
I’ll have to check. I thought I removed the uncertainty but some of the numbers are off. Boston’s postseason odds are better if they get swept than if they lose 2 out of 3, which also doesn’t pass the smell test either.
I can’t believe Matt Garza’s injury was discovered before the Yankees traded for him.
Jumping from the Corban Joseph hype train for a bit…Ramon Flores is another guy that gets way overlooked. Reminds me of Melky. I mean this in a good way.
[20] That’s just going to make the cost in prospects higher. Certainty going forward is a valuable thing.
Ore are they the luckiest team ever, in that they’re already 11 games ahead of their pythag, and their RS/RA is *also* outperforming their true talent by 4 or 5 games so far?
Losing Hammell for a month is part of it, but it might be a strength of schedule issue. Looks like they’ve played more games against the AL Central than any other team in the East, and fewer games against the AL West.
[23] Okay that would do it. They’re still damn lucky though…going to be another one of those seasons where certain MSM segments will praise old-school types and damn sabremetrics. And then when Baltimore comes back to earth next year (though with some of their prospects a deserved 80-win season isn’t out of the question), will need to find excuses why.
[21] I’m not sure how much he gets overlooked, honestly. I’ve definitely read a fair bit of praise for him, namely his ability to draw walks, and his hit tool. However, there are questions for his long-term position. He’s played a bit of CF, but from what I’ve ready seems more a corner-OF type. And some even question if he isn’t destined for 1B. And if he’s a corner-OF/1B, he hasn’t yet displayed enough power to hold down that position (career-best .135 isoP last year in Charleston). You can get away with a lack of power if you have elite-speed/defense. E.g. Gardner, Ichiro, Crawford. Flores likely doesn’t have that.
So…I guess to me he’s more like a C+ right now. Sickels had him as a C and the #20 prospect on the Yanks coming into the year, and I think he’s improved his stock a little but not much, so C+ is fair.
So no ground gained, which is annoying, but better than the alternative.
...which would be, I think, “ground gained.” No, I’m pretty sure the alternative is actually better.
[26] I think he was talking about the alternate alternative (ground lost).
You’re both wrong. He meant the alternative as “gowned grained.”
Also, “mere 12 remaining games” is excellent.
I guess I should have said “one of the alternatives.”
What if you still considered the final 4 teams the ‘postseason’ teams and you call that 1 game playoff some non-regular season but non-postseason game. So, then you factor that ~50% that you get through the 1 game play off to the “real” playoffs.
I prefer the term postseason for any game not in the regular season, then playoffs for the final eight. If you’re suggesting I don’t add in the second wild card to a team’s postseason probability, I can see the rationale. But if you have two teams tying with the same record for WC1 and WC2 is one of them a playoff team and one of them not?
Anyway, that’s why I list all the different probabilities out separately. Anyone can lop that last column off if they like.
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