Friday, July 27, 2012
The Postseason Implications of this series with Boston
We’re down to a mere 12 remaining games against Boston this year, with three of those slated for this weekend in the first road series at DNYS for Boston. How we’ve gotten to four days from August with Boston making their first trip to the Bronx I don’t really understand, but here we are. So we’ll pick this up from the the last time I ran these.
Anyway, the Yankees had a chance at really hurting Boston’s somewhat slim division title chances over this past week as the Red Sox have lost 5 of their last seven. If that sounds familiar, it should because it’s exactly what the Yankees did over the same time period. So no ground gained, which is annoying, but better than the alternative.
The Yankees can’t eliminate Boston this weekend, but they can make it pretty close to impossible for the Red Sox to catch them. Here’s how the AL East’s postseason odds stand as of this morning. The overall odds for all the teams are actually a bit lower than this but I removed the variance from the simulations to focus on the impact of the series, so keep that in mind.
Here’s how those change based the possible outcomes of this three game set.
|Red Sox 3-0||W||L||Div||WC1||WC2||PS%|
|Red Sox 2-1||W||L||Div||WC1||WC2||PS%|
|Yankees 2 -1||W||L||Div||WC1||WC2||PS%|
|Yankees 3 -0||W||L||Div||WC1||WC2||PS%|
Like I said, once you return variability to the simulations the Yankees odds of making the postseason in the last two scenarios isn’t really 100.0%. But it’s pretty damn high.
Your pitching matchups for the weekend are:
Friday, July 27, 7:05 PM ET
Aaron Cook vs. Phil Hughes
Saturday, July 28, 4:05 PM ET
Jon Lester vs. CC Sabathia
Sunday, July 29, 8:05 PM ET
Felix Doubront vs. Hiroki Kuroda
Those seem like pretty favorable matchups for the Yankees overall. Aaron Cook’s been pretty effective despite racking up strikeouts with the frequency of a Yankee hit with RISP, and every Hughes start in DNYS has the potential for setting a record for HRs allowed by a pitcher, so that game seems like the one with the highest variablity. I think the Yankees can probably split the next two games at the very least, so tonight’s game is the key I think.
Missing Alex Rodriguez for this series stinks, but at least Boston is still missing David Ortiz. I’d lay 50/50 odds that Eric Chavez will be healthy by the end of this series, assuming Jayson Nix gets the starts on Saturday and Sunday with lefties going.
I really, really, really would love a sweep, because with the way the Yankees played on the West Coast they owe it to us. But taking two out of three would also suffice.
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