Friday, July 6, 2012
The Postseason Implications of this series with Boston
The second half of the Yankees’ 2012 MLB schedule gets kicked off with four excruciating games against Boston. As I’ve mentioned before, 16 of the Yankees final 81 games are against Boston, which means there’s a fair amount of potential volatility in both teams’ chances of taking the division and/or one of the wild cards. The Yankees have built up a healthy 7.5 game lead on Boston, but the gap between them according to their Pythagorean records is only 1.5 games (the Yankees are at 47-34 and Boston’s at 46-36). That doesn’t matter for the games that have been played so far, but it should be part of the consideration when thinking about what both teams will do going forward.
This chart shows the postseason probabilities for the AL East as of this morning, as well as with the four potential outcomes of this four game set. I’ve removed the uncertainty from the simulation since we’re focusing more on the deltas based on the series outcomes, which is why the odds of this morning differ slightly from yesterday’s post. Adding in the uncertainty should reduce the top teams’ chances slightly and increase the lower teams’ chances slightly to account for things we can’t necessarily predict.
| Now | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC1 | WC2 | PS% |
| Yankees | 95 | 67 | 803 | 682 | 87.9% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 96.8% |
| Red Sox | 85 | 77 | 821 | 724 | 7.5% | 15.3% | 21.7% | 44.5% |
| Rays | 84 | 78 | 718 | 676 | 2.8% | 11.1% | 18.5% | 32.4% |
| Blue Jays | 81 | 81 | 793 | 771 | 1.5% | 3.9% | 10.8% | 16.2% |
| Orioles | 78 | 84 | 700 | 782 | 0.3% | 0.8% | 3.6% | 4.7% |
| Red Sox Sweep | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC1 | WC2 | PS% |
| Yankees | 93 | 69 | 803 | 682 | 77.3% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 96.0% |
| Red Sox | 87 | 75 | 821 | 724 | 16.7% | 20.4% | 23.1% | 60.2% |
| Rays | 84 | 78 | 718 | 676 | 4.3% | 10.4% | 15.0% | 29.6% |
| Blue Jays | 81 | 81 | 793 | 771 | 1.4% | 3.5% | 7.8% | 12.6% |
| Orioles | 78 | 84 | 700 | 782 | 0.4% | 1.2% | 3.5% | 5.0% |
| Red Sox 3-1 | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC1 | WC2 | PS% |
| Yankees | 94 | 68 | 803 | 682 | 83.1% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 95.5% |
| Red Sox | 86 | 76 | 821 | 724 | 11.6% | 17.2% | 23.3% | 52.1% |
| Rays | 84 | 78 | 718 | 676 | 3.4% | 11.8% | 17.6% | 32.8% |
| Blue Jays | 81 | 81 | 793 | 771 | 1.5% | 3.8% | 9.2% | 14.4% |
| Orioles | 78 | 84 | 700 | 782 | 0.4% | 1.1% | 4.2% | 5.7% |
| Split | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC1 | WC2 | PS% |
| Yankees | 95 | 67 | 803 | 682 | 88.4% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 96.9% |
| Red Sox | 85 | 77 | 821 | 724 | 6.6% | 16.4% | 22.6% | 45.6% |
| Rays | 84 | 78 | 718 | 676 | 3.6% | 12.5% | 19.1% | 35.3% |
| Blue Jays | 81 | 81 | 793 | 771 | 1.4% | 4.7% | 9.5% | 15.6% |
| Orioles | 78 | 84 | 700 | 782 | 0.1% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 5.0% |
| Yankees 3-1 | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC1 | WC2 | PS% |
| Yankees | 96 | 66 | 803 | 682 | 93.0% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 98.3% |
| Red Sox | 84 | 78 | 821 | 724 | 2.8% | 14.9% | 20.0% | 37.7% |
| Rays | 84 | 78 | 718 | 676 | 2.5% | 11.9% | 19.5% | 33.9% |
| Blue Jays | 81 | 81 | 793 | 771 | 1.3% | 5.8% | 9.2% | 16.3% |
| Orioles | 79 | 83 | 700 | 782 | 0.3% | 1.3% | 4.5% | 6.1% |
| Yankees Sweep | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC1 | WC2 | PS% |
| Yankees | 97 | 65 | 803 | 682 | 95.4% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 99.0% |
| Rays | 84 | 78 | 718 | 676 | 2.2% | 15.9% | 19.8% | 37.8% |
| Red Sox | 83 | 79 | 821 | 724 | 1.4% | 11.0% | 17.1% | 29.4% |
| Blue Jays | 81 | 81 | 793 | 771 | 1.0% | 4.3% | 11.5% | 16.8% |
| Orioles | 78 | 84 | 700 | 782 | 0.1% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 5.8% |
Even a Red Sox sweep still leaves the Yankees as clear favorites in the AL East, although it reduces their odds by over 10%. If the Yankees and Red Sox are equally good, it’s tough to see Boston making up what would still be a four game deficit over 76 games. But a Red Sox sweep would stink.
Red Sox 3-1 knocks the Yankees’ division title chances down by about 5%.
The most likely scenario, a split of the four games improves the Yankees’ odds slightly, because the runway for Boston gets a little shorter.
Yankees 3-1 increases their odds by about 6%, and a Yankee sweep pushes them up by about 8%.
Boston’s still missing Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz and will be without Dustin Pedroia who’s heading to the DL, which means they’re not at full strength for this series. Of course, the Yankees are missing arguably their two best starters in CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte, as well as Brett Gardner so they’re not exactly at full strength either. Here are the pitching matchups.
Friday, July 6, 7:10 PM ET
Hiroki Kuroda vs. Josh Beckett
Saturday, July 7, 12:35 PM ET
Phil Hughes vs. Franklin Morales
Saturday, July 7, 7:15 PM ET
Freddy Garcia vs. Felix Doubront
Sunday, July 8, 8:05 PM ET
Ivan Nova vs. Jon Lester
Friday’s game seems like the key one to me. Hiroki Kuroda’s been pitching pretty well of late, but the offense he’s faced haven’t exactly been juggernauts. The Yankees have been a bit better vs. RHP(.258/.336/.457) than LHP(264/.330/.447) this year, plus it’d be nice to see them smack Josh Beckett around after the way he stifled them last year (4-0 in 5 starts, 34 IP, 10 BB, 5 HBP, 38 K, 1.85 ERA). Seriously, the horse’s ass had 5 HBP in 34 innings vs. the Yankees and 4 HBP in 159 innings vs. everyone else.
I really don’t like the pitching matchups on Saturday. Sunday seems like a tossup. I think Nova can pitch pretty well, but I don’t know how the Yankees will do against Lester.
I’d be happy with a split I think.
Comments
So there’ll be what, a 15 minute break between the games ?
I hear Bud Selig is going to institute a 48 hour day for the next three days so that the teams can have a longer break between games.
Seriously, I don’t think I can watch 20 hours of baseball this weekend.
[2] Yeah, I don’t know if my liver is up to it.
Pin, we have faith in your liver.
Trained in the trenches.
Its story - much like Kuroda’s.
I thought everyone here would appreciate this (don’t know how to post the pic itself, which would have been better):
http://www.buzzfeed.com/sarahmorgan/worlds-most-accurate-pie-chart-d8
[5] I almost posted that a week ago. brilliant.
[3] I feel your pain Pin, I’m still without internet (I should have it sometime next week), which means the only way I can catch the Yankee games is by going to a bar…
[2] I watched all 5 games in 2006, remember? That was one of the best weekends ever
I really don’t like the pitching matchups on Saturday.
IDK, I don’t see why you’d be scared of Morales. Including this year he’s only struck out 7.72/9, but also walked 4.37/9. His GB% isn’t anything special (under 40), and his career xFIP - almost entirely as a reliever - is 4.63. His only period of success so far is 43 IP with the Red Sox, and that’s almost entirely out of the bullpen. Now, it’s always possible that at 26 he’s suddenly figured it out after being called up, but…I don’t think there’s anything to say this matchup favors anyone in particular. If the game weren’t in Boston I’d say it favors the Yankees.
Looking at the chart it seems the Yankees really *can* sew up the Division before the AS break!
In all seriousness, a NYY-TWN mashup without Pedroia, Youkilis, or Papelbon may not have quite the intensity we’re used to.
I was very happy to see Paps blow the save yesterday.
Seriously, I don’t think I can watch 20 hours of baseball this weekend.
That’s only one game, or one and a half games.
IDK, I don’t see why you’d be scared of Morales.
He’s got great stuff, and I’m sure pitching in Coors makes his pre-Boston career less than predictive. But really, it’s more of a case of being more scared of Hughes.
Boston has a collective line of .337/.396/.510 vs. Hughes in 111 PA in Fenway. He’s got an ERA of 9.00 there with a tidy 1.913 WHIP.
Can we set up the liveblog rotation for the weekend?
I bought a bottle of Blue label just for one of these games. I’m going down in style.
Who’s on first?
What, has no one here done a Ring Cycle marathon?
[15] I’m waiting for Cano to hit for the Ring Cycle.
I know very little about opera but went to a performance of Das Rheingold which I rather liked. However, the staging, set design, and costumes were all “non-traditional” so the real opera buffs booed it. So annoying.
Of course, the Yankees are missing arguably their two best starters in CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte, as well as Brett Gardner so they’re not exactly at full strength either.
Poor Pineda is always left off the list of injuries, but he is as significant as anyone.
And, of course, Mo.
Opera is all about the outrage.
I’m a Lieder/chamber music guy myself.
I’ll be covering the doubleheader on Saturday. I’m hoping for lots of small fistpumps but am really praying I just keep my sanity.
[13] Well, great stuff doesn’t mean he can necessarily control it and be a great pitcher. And 111PA scattered over how many years? Really?
[15] I haven’t done any of them yet. My girlfriend has done a few (before we met). We were actually hoping to be able to do all of them (encores at our local movie complex) this summer, but the dates didn’t work out. Opera is new for me (thanks to the GF), but I’ve enjoyed the 3 I’ve gone to so far. None in person, all live simulcast.
I totally get being freaked out about Hughes pitching in Fenway. The counter to that is the depletion of Boston’s lineup + Hughes’ recent good pitching. But yeah, I can’t work up any confidence. I’m kinda expecting a 5IP, 4ER sort of start.
It’s not really logical. It’s just a consequence of watching him get beaten like a rented mule time and again.
Upside: if he pitches well, I’ll be pleasantly surprised. Until the bullpen blows the game. 
Don’t worry, guys. Secret weapon: Darnell McDonald.
I’m kinda expecting a 5IP, 4ER sort of start.
You’re way off. My prediction, 2 IP, 9 ER.
Poor Pineda is always left off the list of injuries, but he is as significant as anyone.
I’m not including guys who won’t be back this year, so no Pineda or Mo. Call me crazy, but I can see TSBG back in September for pinch-running.
[16] I saw MacBeth at the Met earlier this year. Now I’m not an opera buff by any means, but I was perturbed by this particular producer’s vision. Instead of medieval Scotland, we got a post-WW2 totalitarian state that could’ve been a Soviet satellite. The main characters all carried pistols and assault rifles, yet whenever a killing took place, it was done with a knife to stay true to the script. Seems that these modern adaptations are often for the worse.
I saw “Lady MacBeth of Mtensk” in a misguided attempt to impress the woman who’s now my wife. Everyone was wearing brown rags and it took place at a collective farm. Best part was the martinis after.
Now WP is probably going to tell me it’s the highest expression of Soviet Art, EVAH.
Best part was the martinis after.
Isn’t that the best part of almost any outing?
[28] Yes. Next time I’m going straight to the martinis.
[27] Shostakovich is one of my favorite composers. If you like Bach, try the 24 Preludes and Fugues. If you like spooky singing, try the 14th symphony. If you like string quartets, try the 4th, or 7th, or ... If you like a grand symphony with a long melodic line, try the 8th or 10th. If you like an exciting symphony, try the 5th. Or just listen to the Piano Quintet, which is pure awesomeness, or the 1st Violin Concerto.
Prelude and Fugue #7, one of my favorite pieces of music.
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