Friday, May 13, 2011
The Implications of this Weekend’s Series with Boston
The Red Sox have been playing better since their rough start but are still trying to fight their way to .500. The Yankees have stumbled a bit over their last ten games, losing 6 and are now in second place in the AL East behind the Tampa Bay Rays, although even in the loss column.
So with a three game set beginning tonight in the Bronx between the Yankees and Boston, here’s a look at how the different ways this series may affect the AL East going forward.
First of all, here’s how my Monte Carlo simulator says the AL East would play out as of today.
W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
When Boston sweeps this series, here’s how things will look.
There’s a miniscule chance the Yankees take one of the three games, and if that were to happen here’s how things would shake out.
I suppose there’s an infinitesimal chance the Yankees take two of three games in which case here’s how things would project going forward.
In the completely theoretical and impossible scenario where the Yankees sweep, this would be the net result.
One of my foibles is superstition. Because of that, I see no way a series against Boston that kicks off on a Friday the 13th is going to go well. Hopefully I’m wrong.
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