Man I just finished cleaning up after the hurricane.  After I cleaned up my own house and yard I spent most of yesterday helping my cousins wading through sewage, carrying all the appliances out of their basement, cutting up their rugs and hosing off walls in an attempt to clean their flooded house. 

Now I find myself sitting at work after a long delayed filled commute, exhausted, sore, I decide to check in on what happened with the Yankees this weekend.  So after finding out they are playing like the water I was soaked with yesterday I get to watch them get spanked by the Red Sox all week?  Great.

If the Yankees win this series 2-1, leaving town tied in the loss column, I’d call that the very definition of “realistic shot at winning the division.”

To echo [2], 40% or even 28.5% is a “realistic shot”.

They have to sweep to be favored, but winning just one keeps them very much alive, especially with three more games vs. Boston.

What are the chances of the Yankees actually winning a game against the Red Sox?

[4] is what I call the very definition of “realistic”. Assuming it was a rhetorical question.

SG, do you have numbers on how this series affects the Yankees chances to hold on to the WC ?

Does Pin have MMI and who is dominant?

(2) Don’t forget that Boston owns the tie breaker.

Top Yankee BA vs Townies this year Martin 233, worst Tex 136 whereas they have 5 guys hitting over 300 led by Pedroia at 439.

Not trying to single out [5], because I read a bunch of similiar comments this weekend, but I really can’t believe people are worried about the WC.  BP has it at a .4% chance of not making the playoffs.  Even if they aren’t as accurate as SG’s model, it’s gotta be close to that.  If you guys go around worrying about stuff that has a .4% chance of happening, that’s gotta be life-crippling.  That’s really “never leave your parents’ basement” type doom and gloom.

[9] I’m assuming most of the readership had to leave their mother’s basements this weekend to avoid the flooding.

[10] We just went to the emergency command bunker (treehouse) and fired up the generator so we could stay connected to the internet.  Also brought supplies just in case this was the first sign of the zombie apocolypse.

[11] I heard it was God telling the politicians to cut spending. Could be one and the same I guess.

[12] Was that like the time God said “Global warming? He’s 4 feet of snow, DC!”

[9]  According to Dick Cheney, if there is a one percent chance of a bad thing happening it must be treated as a 100% certainty.  So a .4% chance must be treated as a 40% possibility, which is uncomfortably large.

So, it’s round 1 of the playoffs for rlyw fantasy baseball.  go me!

[15] I’ll have you know that I played this entire season under protest, since the draft application wouldn’t let me login until after round 3.

[16] I’m pretty sure your protest needed to be filed after the first pick for it to count.

[17] It may have been. Check the logs! CHECK THE LOGS!

14 so lets bomb Tampa Bay

I have it on good authority that Brian Cronin is a right winger

[20] But does he live in the basement of the wing?  If so he’s okay (though he’s probably the bastard that doesn’t make fresh coffee after emptying the pot!)

[21]  Cronin probably leaves like a millimeter on the bottom so he’s technically not leaving it empty, meaning that first a smelly crust forms and then the pot breaks.

TRAGEDY OF THE COMMONS!!!

Once when I worked for Michael Moore, someone in the office decided we should have a cleaning rota for the fridge/sink until Michael said, apropos of the writers, “Wait a minute.  We’re paying these guys a boatload of money.  Maybe they shouldn’t be spending their time cleaning the coffee maker.”

For the record, the money was good but not a boatload, though certainly much more than the PA’s.

Hey, ...(F)..., if you didn’t get my reply to your PM (had to hack some brackets in the reply to get it accepted), send me your email address.

[23] Isn’t that what PA’s are for anyway?

[24] Got it, I’ll shoot you an email when I get home from work.

SG, do you have numbers on how this series affects the Yankees chances to hold on to the WC ?

Figure about 0.5% for each game.  So right now, the baseline is something like Boston winning 1.6 of these 3 games.  I have the Yankees postseason odds based on that as 98.5%.  So if they get swept drop that to 98.0%.  If they go 2-1 jump to 99%, and if they sweep up to 99.5%.

If you think that initial 98.5% is too high, start from wherever and then use the same basic math.  So if it’s 96%, you’re in a range of 95.5% - 97.5%, etc.,

[27]

Shit, basic math. My only weakness. How did you know?

[24] Got it, I’ll shoot you an email when I get home from work.

TX don’t got smartphones, more specifically iPhones? I heard it bust the 3G during the Southwest music thing.

[29] I work in IT, but I’m a luddite. Still rocking a flip phone.

Although, I’m strongly considering an Eee Slider.

If you work on IT, can’t you hack up a time-gated tunnel out?  Hmm, guess that would be a little risky still.

Who is going to be the NL MVP?

[31] FINE, I don’t feel like emailing him until later. Jeez.

[32] I’m hoping for a big finish for Lance Berkman.