Simmons.  Alomar.  Foster.

A lot of guys on that list that just never improved.  Some weren’t much of an offensive force to begin with (guys with “good enough” bats at a premium defensive position). 

Getting Campos too was supposed to be the icing on the cake, but he’s hurt as well.

I like the spirit of the trade.  Trade a top hitter with no position on a team that needs the DH spot for aging vets for a young pitcher.  It was a great idea.

Of course, the arm they got didn’t work out.  Worse than that?  He was already injured at the time they traded for him and they just didn’t find the injury.  To me, that’s the infuriating part.

[3]
Agree on all points.
And I’d add that I think that the question, in light of [0], has turned out to be: is there any compelling reason to be particularly distraught about this trade?

It was a bad trade because he was an incredibly valuable commodity for two years running and the only thing they got for him (after actually hitting well at the ML level for a month) was an injured pitcher.  I can’t help but think they could have gotten more for him from someone…

[5]
Yes, it’s a bad trade if you judge Montero by what he seemed to be then and Pineda by what he turned out to be.
I’m not sure that’s the best way to evaluate the trade, though.

I could say: it was a great trade! You gave away a guy who turned out to be a league-average hitter and isn’t a good fielder for a young starting pitcher who’d already had a full ML season with a great strike-out ratio and looked poised to become a top-of-the-rotation star and etc., etc., etc… which wouldn’t be a particularly compelling analysis, either.

I wouldn’d do the same trade again knowing Pineda and Campos are injured, but I would think there’s still at least a reasonable chance (25-30% ?) that some combination of Pineda and Campos will still turn out to be more valuable than Montero.

“you can’t help but wonder if he’d have hit better in DNYS in a better lineup”

I thought lineup effects—batting order, “protection”—were not actually existent.  Or are you just speculating?  Just trying to stay on top of the bounds of my ignorance.

ETA:  I should have said “proven to exist,” I guess.

I thought lineup effects—batting order, “protection”—were not actually existent. 

Protection has mostly been debunked, but I think there are ancillary effects of hitting in a better lineup (more fatigued pitchers, more cracks at relievers) that make it advantageous to hit in a better lineup.  Plus there may be less pressure hitting eighth in the Yankee lineup than there would be hitting cleanup in Seattle’s.

So there’s some science behind it, but yeah it’s more speculation.  So you don’t have to feel ignorant in this particular instance at least.

[9 & 10] In addition to all that, there’s the idea that park effects don’t affect all players - even all players batting from the same side of the plate - evenly.  So maybe in DNYS he’d be more suited to the park (e.g. good opposite field power) and could put up an OPS+ of 105.  Of course at the same time, it’s possible it is even LESS suited to his game, and he would be a 90.

I came across this today and figured some of you might be interested…

http://www.jeterfilter.com/

Incidentally, here’s a list of the above players’ age 23 season.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/share.cgi?id=LhCX4

Interestingly, exactly half were above a 100 OPS+ (with Troy Glaus making the biggest jump to 150).

And their age 24 seasons.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/share.cgi?id=J5nLN.

Again, exactly half were above a 100 OPS+ with George Foster having a monster season (182 OPS+).

[3] Definitely agree.  They used their biggest chip for a move that should have addressed both a short AND long-term weakness.  It didn’t work out, but the thinking was excellent.

Knowing what I know now would I do the trade again?  No, of course not.  I’m sure there was probably another player of slightly less value (at the time) than Pineda, who has worked out well since then, that I would trade Montero for instead.  B/c as much as I loved Montero at the time, he’s probably worth less now than he was then…

http://www.jeterfilter.com/

I love the Before/Afters. The Quest for 3000 turns into a coupon for beer tasting, a Jeterian injury becomes the Mets’ continued sub-mediocrity.

with George Foster having a monster season (182 OPS+)

Well, only 43 PA.  His age 26 and beyond seasons is where he truly became a monster hitter.

But basically, we’re still at the point where Montero could be a future MVP, or a continual disappointment.

[3] After initially hating the trade for sentimental reasons, I really liked it, because the thinking behind the trade was great. Given the youth, control and general non-performance of everyone involved in the trade, I think it’s pretty clear taht a few more years are needed to judge it. While no one would do the trade with the information we know now, that might completely change in another year.

Something no one has brought up…the Upton trade that he vetoed.  If that’s the best the Mariners could get (like a #10 pitching prospect and #50 hitting prospect, and two relievers), think the Yankees can come up with a trade we’d be willing to do, that is slightly less than that?  I think his salary is still in a range they’d be willing to do (could be wrong).  Depending on how many years of control AZ would want for the relievers, I think Yankees could do say Joba and Boone, or one of Joba/Boone and one of Montgomery/Whitley.  For prospects…they can’t trade Hensley until the summer, so they don’t have the high-end pitching prospect (if that’s a factor).  But maybe DePaula, or maybe Campos still has enough value.  So…maybe DePaula and one of the big 4?  Or instead of DePaula, any two of the big 4?

I’m kind of torn on that, especially two of them.  At worst Upton is probably an above average (3 WAR) RF for the next 3 years, at best he’s a perennial MVP candiate.  For the latter, you make the trade.  For the former…Not sure if you do.  Thoughts?

Catching up on RAB and in Friday’s chat Mike A. suggested Williams, Phelps, Logan, and Adams as a “close comp”.  If that’s AZ’s asking price I’d do that, as much as I like Phelps.

[18] How much would you trade for Swisher if you could pay him 8.5MM for the next 3 years? How much would you trade for Stanton if you had to pay him 8.5MM for the next 3 years? The price you should be willing to pay Upton should be somwhere in between those two points. I’m not sure I would do it if I were the Yankees, but it is tempting.

Well, only 43 PA.

Whoops, missed that.

Catching up on RAB and in Friday’s chat Mike A. suggested Williams, Phelps, Logan, and Adams as a “close comp”.  If that’s AZ’s asking price I’d do that, as much as I like Phelps.

I’d do that.

[18]  Couldn’t Hensley be a PTBNL, if it came to that?

I’d definitely do that trade and honestly, that’s a nice return for Arizona.

[20] Agree on all that.  The biggest problem I have with Upton I think is there could be some concern if his past injuries (shoulder, thumb) are healed or if they will be nagging.  Especially the shoulder.  Think of Mattingly’s back when he was only a bit older; seemed it was healed, just a blip on his way to the HOF.  But it derailed his career.  So…

I think in the end I’d do any two of the top 4, and a couple of relievers.  But I think there’s a good chance they could do it for a little less than that now; like maybe Heathcott and Gumbs as opposed to Heathcott and Austin.

[22] Indeed they could.  Good catch.

[23] Considering how well their last Yankee pitching prospect turned out for them, Phelps could be an MVP in ‘Zona.

Yeah, that’s actually something that you would hope ‘Zona would keep in mind, Chris.

Also, if they could bring back 92 MPH Javy cheaply, then Phelps would become very tradeable.

CC
Kuroda
Pettitte
92 MPH Javy
Hughes
Nova

or…

CC
Kuroda
Pettitte
Hughes
Nova
88 MPH Javy

is a nice rotation.

Interesting analysis.  However, if you consider also Montero’s outstanding short stint with the Yanks and his minor league hitting success, then I think he’s pretty darn likely to develop into a good or outstanding hitter.

BTW everyone is saying that he can’t catch.  Yet, I was surprised to see in Fangraphs that last year he was the starting catcher in 55 games and caught 487 innings.

I disliked the trade even before Pineda’s health problem arose.  Now I totally hate it.

Interesting analysis.  However, if you consider also Montero’s outstanding short stint with the Yanks and his minor league hitting success, then I think he’s pretty darn likely to develop into a good or outstanding hitter.

BTW everyone is saying that he can’t catch.  Yet, I was surprised to see in Fangraphs that last year he was the starting catcher in 55 games and caught 487 innings.

I disliked the trade even before Pineda’s health problem arose.  Now I totally hate it.

SG, could you run that query for career WAR?  Or tell me how to capture the query and alter it?

Also, if they could bring back…Javy

No.  Just no.

SG, could you run that query for career WAR?  Or tell me how to capture the query and alter it?

Yep.

Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers, From 1901 to 2012, For players in the saved report

Al Simmons: 64.3 WAR/pos
Roberto Alomar: 62.9 WAR/pos
Carlos Beltran: 62.3 WAR/pos
Adrian Beltre: 61.1 WAR/pos
Reggie Smith: 60.8 WAR/pos
Ellis Burks: 46.3 WAR/pos
Johnny Evers: 45.2 WAR/pos
Chuck Knoblauch: 42 WAR/pos
George Foster: 41.3 WAR/pos
Jimmy Rollins: 40.3 WAR/pos
Rafael Furcal: 37.6 WAR/pos
Troy Glaus: 35 WAR/pos
George Kell: 34.5 WAR/pos
Dick McAuliffe: 34.3 WAR/pos
Derrek Lee: 31.5 WAR/pos
Del Ennis: 27.5 WAR/pos
Ray Chapman: 27 WAR/pos
Bob Bailey: 25.9 WAR/pos
Garry Templeton: 24.9 WAR/pos
Steve Sax: 22.9 WAR/pos
Delino DeShields: 22 WAR/pos
Frankie Crosetti: 21.3 WAR/pos
Mark Kotsay: 20.6 WAR/pos
Buck Weaver: 18.5 WAR/pos
Claudell Washington: 16.3 WAR/pos
Bruce Campbell: 13.1 WAR/pos
Ruben Sierra: 13 WAR/pos
Bobby Byrne: 12.4 WAR/pos
Elmer Smith: 11.9 WAR/pos
Tito Francona: 11.9 WAR/pos
Roy Howell: 9.1 WAR/pos
Cliff Heathcote: 9.1 WAR/pos
Alex Gonzalez: 8.3 WAR/pos
Brett Lawrie: 7.6 WAR/pos
Jim Tabor: 7 WAR/pos
Bill Coughlin: 6.8 WAR/pos
Beals Becker: 6.6 WAR/pos
Bill Knickerbocker: 3.7 WAR/pos
Ruben Tejada: 3.3 WAR/pos
Howard Freigau: 1.4 WAR/pos
Delmon Young: 0.6 WAR/pos
Jesus Montero: 0.3 WAR/pos

These include pre age 22 WAR as well.

[31] So, Montero could end up anywhere between roster filler and HOFer?

He’s got the worst career WAR of any player on the list.  I think it’s safe to call him a bust.

And how have I not heard of Beals Becker and Bill Knickerbocker before?

[33] When you’ve only put up half the career WAR of Delmon Young…

Given Seattle’s trade history it would make more sense if they’d exchanged Pineda for the actual Delino DeShields, not just a reasonable facsimile.