The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Tuesday, April 3, 2012

The 2012 MLB Projection Blowout - ZiPS Edition

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections are generally considered one of the best around.  Dan does a lot of work with his own projected standings and other things at ESPN.  You can see his AL and NL projections there if you’re an Insider.

Projecting the American League

Projecting the National League

Since I’m not an insider, I used Dan’s projectons to run my own standings.  As with PECOTA, these should be considered unofficial. 

Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
AL East NYA 95 67 875 743 47.8% 22.6% 12.8% 83.2% 85 - 105
AL East TAM 93 69 807 687 28.3% 27.8% 15.1% 71.2% 83 - 103
AL East BOS 91 71 863 755 22.5% 24.9% 15.7% 63.1% 81 - 101
AL East TOR 80 82 818 821 1.4% 3.3% 4.6% 9.2% 70 - 90
AL East BAL 69 93 751 870 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 59 - 79
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
AL Central DET 84 78 812 776 47.4% 0.8% 9.2% 57.4% 74 - 94
AL Central CLE 83 79 792 768 37.2% 0.8% 7.0% 44.9% 73 - 93
AL Central KC 76 86 731 781 7.5% 0.0% 1.1% 8.6% 66 - 86
AL Central CHA 74 88 730 827 4.9% 0.0% 1.0% 5.8% 64 - 84
AL Central MIN 72 90 762 846 3.1% 0.1% 0.5% 3.7% 62 - 82
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
AL West LAA 92 70 772 670 53.6% 9.0% 15.0% 77.7% 82 - 102
AL West TEX 91 71 833 727 45.1% 10.2% 17.1% 72.3% 81 - 101
AL West SEA 74 88 705 768 1.2% 0.4% 0.8% 2.4% 64 - 84
AL West OAK 73 89 722 791 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.9% 63 - 83
AL WC1 94
AL WC2 91
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
NL East PHI 91 71 702 622 50.7% 15.5% 9.4% 75.6% 81 - 101
NL East ATL 88 74 712 665 26.9% 17.9% 10.0% 54.7% 78 - 98
NL East FLA 84 78 712 680 13.3% 11.6% 9.1% 33.9% 74 - 94
NL East WAS 82 80 654 646 8.7% 8.0% 7.5% 24.1% 72 - 92
NL East NYN 72 90 679 762 0.5% 0.4% 0.9% 1.7% 62 - 82
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
NL Central CIN 86 76 719 678 34.6% 9.0% 11.5% 55.1% 76 - 96
NL Central STL 86 76 719 673 31.7% 10.1% 10.5% 52.4% 76 - 96
NL Central MIL 86 76 709 655 30.3% 9.0% 12.1% 51.5% 76 - 96
NL Central PIT 75 87 685 736 3.1% 1.0% 2.0% 6.2% 65 - 85
NL Central CHN 70 92 657 766 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.9% 60 - 80
NL Central HOU 63 99 602 759 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 53 - 73
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
NL West SF 86 76 689 652 42.5% 5.7% 10.2% 58.4% 76 - 96
NL West ARI 86 76 693 660 39.6% 6.6% 10.2% 56.4% 76 - 96
NL West COL 80 82 757 767 12.2% 3.1% 4.1% 19.4% 70 - 90
NL West SD 76 86 637 679 5.0% 1.5% 2.3% 8.8% 66 - 86
NL West LAN 72 90 624 697 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 1.5% 62 - 82
NL WC1 90
NL WC2 87

Div: Percentage of times team won division
WC 1: Percentage of times team won first wild card
WC 2: Percentage of times team won second wild card
PS%: Total percentage team qualified for the postseason (DIV + WC1 + WC2)
W 1 Std: Wins within one standard deviation

--Posted at 8:32 am by SG / No Comments | - (0)

Comments

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