Tuesday, April 3, 2012

The 2012 MLB Projection Blowout - ZiPS Edition

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections are generally considered one of the best around.  Dan does a lot of work with his own projected standings and other things at ESPN.  You can see his AL and NL projections there if you’re an Insider.

Projecting the American League

Projecting the National League

Since I’m not an insider, I used Dan’s projectons to run my own standings.  As with PECOTA, these should be considered unofficial. 

Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
AL East	NYA	95	67	875	743	47.8%	22.6%	12.8%	83.2%	85 - 105
AL East	TAM	93	69	807	687	28.3%	27.8%	15.1%	71.2%	83 - 103
AL East	BOS	91	71	863	755	22.5%	24.9%	15.7%	63.1%	81 - 101
AL East	TOR	80	82	818	821	1.4%	3.3%	4.6%	9.2%	70 - 90
AL East	BAL	69	93	751	870	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	59 - 79
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
AL Central	DET	84	78	812	776	47.4%	0.8%	9.2%	57.4%	74 - 94
AL Central	CLE	83	79	792	768	37.2%	0.8%	7.0%	44.9%	73 - 93
AL Central	KC	76	86	731	781	7.5%	0.0%	1.1%	8.6%	66 - 86
AL Central	CHA	74	88	730	827	4.9%	0.0%	1.0%	5.8%	64 - 84
AL Central	MIN	72	90	762	846	3.1%	0.1%	0.5%	3.7%	62 - 82
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
AL West	LAA	92	70	772	670	53.6%	9.0%	15.0%	77.7%	82 - 102
AL West	TEX	91	71	833	727	45.1%	10.2%	17.1%	72.3%	81 - 101
AL West	SEA	74	88	705	768	1.2%	0.4%	0.8%	2.4%	64 - 84
AL West	OAK	73	89	722	791	0.2%	0.2%	0.5%	0.9%	63 - 83
AL	WC1	94
AL	WC2	91
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
NL East	PHI	91	71	702	622	50.7%	15.5%	9.4%	75.6%	81 - 101
NL East	ATL	88	74	712	665	26.9%	17.9%	10.0%	54.7%	78 - 98
NL East	FLA	84	78	712	680	13.3%	11.6%	9.1%	33.9%	74 - 94
NL East	WAS	82	80	654	646	8.7%	8.0%	7.5%	24.1%	72 - 92
NL East	NYN	72	90	679	762	0.5%	0.4%	0.9%	1.7%	62 - 82
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
NL Central	CIN	86	76	719	678	34.6%	9.0%	11.5%	55.1%	76 - 96
NL Central	STL	86	76	719	673	31.7%	10.1%	10.5%	52.4%	76 - 96
NL Central	MIL	86	76	709	655	30.3%	9.0%	12.1%	51.5%	76 - 96
NL Central	PIT	75	87	685	736	3.1%	1.0%	2.0%	6.2%	65 - 85
NL Central	CHN	70	92	657	766	0.3%	0.2%	0.4%	0.9%	60 - 80
NL Central	HOU	63	99	602	759	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	53 - 73
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
NL West	SF	86	76	689	652	42.5%	5.7%	10.2%	58.4%	76 - 96
NL West	ARI	86	76	693	660	39.6%	6.6%	10.2%	56.4%	76 - 96
NL West	COL	80	82	757	767	12.2%	3.1%	4.1%	19.4%	70 - 90
NL West	SD	76	86	637	679	5.0%	1.5%	2.3%	8.8%	66 - 86
NL West	LAN	72	90	624	697	0.7%	0.4%	0.4%	1.5%	62 - 82
NL	WC1	90
NL	WC2	87

Div: Percentage of times team won division
WC 1: Percentage of times team won first wild card
WC 2: Percentage of times team won second wild card
PS%: Total percentage team qualified for the postseason (DIV + WC1 + WC2)
W 1 Std: Wins within one standard deviation

Comments

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