Tuesday, April 3, 2012

The 2012 MLB Projection Blowout - PECOTA Edition

Originally developed by Nate Silver, who’s moved on to bigger things, PECOTA from Baseball Prospectus has in the past been considered one the best projection systems.  Since Silver left they have had a few issues, but it’s now in the hands of Colin Wyers who is one of the best baseball analysts around, so I’d expect it to be pretty good again.  Baseball Prospectus runs their own projected standings, so these should NOT be considered what PECOTA is projecting.  It’s more what PECOTA is projecting using my depth charts for all the other projections.  The difference shouldn’t be more than a couple of games in either direction for the most part.  Also, run environments and park factors may not match up, which means the runs scored/allowed here don’t line up with the official PECOTA version.  So these should not be construed as anything other than unofficial.

Here’s how this version of the projected standings shape up.

Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
AL East	NYA	95	67	857	723	55.6%	16.7%	10.4%	82.7%	85 - 105
AL East	BOS	92	70	827	716	30.3%	23.2%	16.0%	69.5%	82 - 102
AL East	TAM	88	74	750	677	12.4%	17.3%	16.1%	45.7%	78 - 98
AL East	TOR	79	83	775	796	1.7%	2.4%	5.1%	9.1%	69 - 89
AL East	BAL	71	91	710	802	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	0.5%	61 - 81
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
AL Central	DET	85	77	789	746	56.9%	0.7%	11.2%	68.9%	75 - 95
AL Central	CLE	82	80	776	757	33.3%	1.0%	8.3%	42.7%	72 - 92
AL Central	CHA	75	87	712	806	6.1%	0.4%	1.5%	7.9%	65 - 85
AL Central	MIN	71	91	739	835	2.3%	0.0%	0.6%	2.9%	61 - 81
AL Central	KC	70	92	697	803	1.4%	0.1%	0.3%	1.7%	60 - 80
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
AL West	TEX	98	64	869	691	79.1%	9.0%	11.0%	99.1%	88 - 108
AL West	LAA	91	71	740	652	20.7%	27.8%	17.0%	65.5%	81 - 101
AL West	OAK	77	85	711	754	0.2%	1.2%	2.1%	3.4%	67 - 87
AL West	SEA	72	90	668	749	0.1%	0.4%	0.6%	1.1%	62 - 82
AL	WC1	93
AL	WC2	90
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
NL East	PHI	88	74	689	628	37.6%	14.9%	11.0%	63.5%	78 - 98
NL East	ATL	85	77	739	707	22.2%	13.1%	10.2%	45.4%	75 - 95
NL East	MIA	85	77	721	679	20.8%	12.4%	8.7%	42.0%	75 - 95
NL East	WAS	85	77	713	678	17.9%	10.4%	8.5%	36.8%	75 - 95
NL East	NYN	75	87	718	778	1.6%	1.1%	1.6%	4.3%	65 - 85
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
NL Central	STL	88	74	754	681	43.9%	13.6%	12.5%	70.0%	78 - 98
NL Central	CIN	86	76	719	677	29.6%	11.4%	9.4%	50.4%	76 - 96
NL Central	MIL	86	76	704	656	25.8%	12.0%	9.3%	47.1%	76 - 96
NL Central	CHN	72	90	655	747	0.5%	0.3%	0.5%	1.2%	62 - 82
NL Central	PIT	71	91	666	759	0.3%	0.1%	0.3%	0.7%	61 - 81
NL Central	HOU	61	101	594	768	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	51 - 71
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
NL West	SF	84	78	663	641	32.2%	3.4%	8.5%	44.1%	74 - 94
NL West	ARI	83	79	710	701	32.4%	2.4%	8.2%	43.0%	73 - 93
NL West	COL	80	82	770	777	18.2%	2.1%	5.3%	25.6%	70 - 90
NL West	SD	78	84	633	650	10.3%	1.7%	4.0%	16.1%	68 - 88
NL West	LAN	76	86	651	686	7.0%	1.1%	2.4%	10.5%	66 - 86
NL	WC1	90
NL	WC2	87

Div: Percentage of times team won division
WC 1: Percentage of times team won first wild card
WC 2: Percentage of times team won second wild card
PS%: Total percentage team qualified for the postseason (DIV + WC1 + WC2)
W 1 Std: Wins within one standard deviation

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