The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Tuesday, April 3, 2012

The 2012 MLB Projection Blowout - PECOTA Edition

Originally developed by Nate Silver, who’s moved on to bigger things, PECOTA from Baseball Prospectus has in the past been considered one the best projection systems.  Since Silver left they have had a few issues, but it’s now in the hands of Colin Wyers who is one of the best baseball analysts around, so I’d expect it to be pretty good again.  Baseball Prospectus runs their own projected standings, so these should NOT be considered what PECOTA is projecting.  It’s more what PECOTA is projecting using my depth charts for all the other projections.  The difference shouldn’t be more than a couple of games in either direction for the most part.  Also, run environments and park factors may not match up, which means the runs scored/allowed here don’t line up with the official PECOTA version.  So these should not be construed as anything other than unofficial.

Here’s how this version of the projected standings shape up.

Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
AL East NYA 95 67 857 723 55.6% 16.7% 10.4% 82.7% 85 - 105
AL East BOS 92 70 827 716 30.3% 23.2% 16.0% 69.5% 82 - 102
AL East TAM 88 74 750 677 12.4% 17.3% 16.1% 45.7% 78 - 98
AL East TOR 79 83 775 796 1.7% 2.4% 5.1% 9.1% 69 - 89
AL East BAL 71 91 710 802 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 61 - 81
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
AL Central DET 85 77 789 746 56.9% 0.7% 11.2% 68.9% 75 - 95
AL Central CLE 82 80 776 757 33.3% 1.0% 8.3% 42.7% 72 - 92
AL Central CHA 75 87 712 806 6.1% 0.4% 1.5% 7.9% 65 - 85
AL Central MIN 71 91 739 835 2.3% 0.0% 0.6% 2.9% 61 - 81
AL Central KC 70 92 697 803 1.4% 0.1% 0.3% 1.7% 60 - 80
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
AL West TEX 98 64 869 691 79.1% 9.0% 11.0% 99.1% 88 - 108
AL West LAA 91 71 740 652 20.7% 27.8% 17.0% 65.5% 81 - 101
AL West OAK 77 85 711 754 0.2% 1.2% 2.1% 3.4% 67 - 87
AL West SEA 72 90 668 749 0.1% 0.4% 0.6% 1.1% 62 - 82
AL WC1 93
AL WC2 90
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
NL East PHI 88 74 689 628 37.6% 14.9% 11.0% 63.5% 78 - 98
NL East ATL 85 77 739 707 22.2% 13.1% 10.2% 45.4% 75 - 95
NL East MIA 85 77 721 679 20.8% 12.4% 8.7% 42.0% 75 - 95
NL East WAS 85 77 713 678 17.9% 10.4% 8.5% 36.8% 75 - 95
NL East NYN 75 87 718 778 1.6% 1.1% 1.6% 4.3% 65 - 85
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
NL Central STL 88 74 754 681 43.9% 13.6% 12.5% 70.0% 78 - 98
NL Central CIN 86 76 719 677 29.6% 11.4% 9.4% 50.4% 76 - 96
NL Central MIL 86 76 704 656 25.8% 12.0% 9.3% 47.1% 76 - 96
NL Central CHN 72 90 655 747 0.5% 0.3% 0.5% 1.2% 62 - 82
NL Central PIT 71 91 666 759 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.7% 61 - 81
NL Central HOU 61 101 594 768 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 51 - 71
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PS% W 1 Std
NL West SF 84 78 663 641 32.2% 3.4% 8.5% 44.1% 74 - 94
NL West ARI 83 79 710 701 32.4% 2.4% 8.2% 43.0% 73 - 93
NL West COL 80 82 770 777 18.2% 2.1% 5.3% 25.6% 70 - 90
NL West SD 78 84 633 650 10.3% 1.7% 4.0% 16.1% 68 - 88
NL West LAN 76 86 651 686 7.0% 1.1% 2.4% 10.5% 66 - 86
NL WC1 90
NL WC2 87

Div: Percentage of times team won division
WC 1: Percentage of times team won first wild card
WC 2: Percentage of times team won second wild card
PS%: Total percentage team qualified for the postseason (DIV + WC1 + WC2)
W 1 Std: Wins within one standard deviation

--Posted at 8:31 am by SG / 1 Comment | - (0)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

PECOTA really really likes Pac Man, I mean the Rangers, more than any other projection does.

Page 1 of 1 pages:

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