Tuesday, April 3, 2012

The 2012 MLB Projection Blowout - Marcel Edition

Marcel was developed by Tangotiger of The Book fame.

Although it’s considered the most basic projection system, it is generally as good as any other system since added complexity really hasn’t shown to add all that much accuracy over Marcel, and the principles behind it are solid and should be the basis for any good forecasting system.  Marcel tends to regress more heavily towards the mean, so the standings here will be more compressed in the other systems.  Marcel does not factor in minor league performance or performances in other leagues, and does not adjust for park.  Any player who has not played in MLB will project as average.  In Marcel, Tsuyoshi Wada and Yu Darvish have the same projection for example, so keep that in mind as you peruse the standings. 

Here’s how it sees things looking in 2012.

Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
AL East	NYA	92	70	800	695	46.3%	21.2%	9.2%	76.7%	82 - 102
AL East	BOS	89	73	801	727	26.7%	23.2%	11.1%	61.1%	79 - 99
AL East	TAM	88	74	754	681	20.6%	20.9%	12.3%	53.8%	78 - 98
AL East	TOR	84	78	753	733	6.5%	11.6%	8.3%	26.3%	74 - 94
AL East	BAL	68	94	682	802	0.0%	0.3%	0.1%	0.3%	58 - 78
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
AL Central	DET	84	78	756	723	41.0%	1.5%	9.9%	52.4%	74 - 94
AL Central	CLE	83	79	755	738	33.7%	2.0%	8.4%	44.1%	73 - 93
AL Central	CHA	79	83	697	714	13.1%	2.0%	5.1%	20.2%	69 - 89
AL Central	KC	78	84	708	735	11.0%	1.2%	3.6%	15.7%	68 - 88
AL Central	MIN	70	92	711	818	1.3%	0.2%	0.4%	1.8%	60 - 80
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
AL West	LAA	87	75	725	671	44.6%	5.7%	13.0%	63.3%	77 - 97
AL West	TEX	87	75	762	703	40.3%	7.1%	11.3%	58.6%	77 - 97
AL West	OAK	80	82	710	715	10.9%	2.2%	5.4%	18.5%	70 - 90
AL West	SEA	77	85	680	721	4.2%	1.0%	2.6%	7.8%	67 - 87
AL	WC1	91
AL	WC2	88
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
NL East	PHI	90	72	729	651	47.0%	13.3%	9.9%	70.1%	80 - 100
NL East	ATL	88	74	729	668	32.2%	17.5%	11.1%	60.8%	78 - 98
NL East	WAS	85	77	710	681	15.6%	14.0%	8.9%	38.5%	75 - 95
NL East	MIA	80	82	715	727	4.8%	4.9%	7.1%	16.8%	70 - 90
NL East	NYN	74	88	698	759	0.6%	0.9%	1.6%	3.1%	64 - 84
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
NL Central	CIN	89	73	734	664	54.2%	8.5%	9.8%	72.5%	79 - 99
NL Central	STL	85	77	749	718	25.9%	9.2%	10.5%	45.6%	75 - 95
NL Central	MIL	83	79	714	693	19.1%	9.5%	7.7%	36.3%	73 - 93
NL Central	PIT	72	90	687	772	0.4%	0.5%	0.6%	1.4%	62 - 82
NL Central	CHN	71	91	675	773	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.9%	61 - 81
NL Central	HOU	66	96	638	771	0.1%	0.0%	0.3%	0.4%	56 - 76
Div	Team	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC 1	WC 2	PS%	W 1 Std
NL West	COL	86	76	746	696	40.9%	6.6%	11.1%	58.6%	76 - 96
NL West	ARI	84	78	704	682	26.1%	6.4%	9.3%	41.8%	74 - 94
NL West	SF	84	78	688	670	27.5%	6.5%	8.9%	42.9%	74 - 94
NL West	LAN	76	86	669	714	3.8%	1.4%	2.0%	7.2%	66 - 86
NL West	SD	74	88	679	737	1.7%	0.7%	1.4%	3.8%	64 - 84
NL	WC1	90
NL	WC2	87

Div: Percentage of times team won division
WC 1: Percentage of times team won first wild card
WC 2: Percentage of times team won second wild card
PS%: Total percentage team qualified for the postseason (DIV + WC1 + WC2)
W 1 Std: Wins within one standard deviation

Comments

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