The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Monday, March 28, 2011

The 2011 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - PECOTA Edition

Originally developed by Nate Silver, who’s moved on to bigger things, PECOTA from Baseball Prospectus has in the past been considered one the best projection systems.  Since Silver left they have had a few issues, but it’s now in the hands of Colin Wyers who is one of the best baseball analysts around, so I’d expect it to be pretty good again.  Baseball Prospectus runs their own projected standings, so these should NOT be considered what PECOTA is projecting.  It’s more what PECOTA is projecting using my depth charts for all the other projections.  The difference shouldn’t be more than 1-2 games in either direction for the most part.

Here’s how this version of the projected standings shape up.

American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Red Sox 94.1 67.9 809 681 41.1% 17.7% 58.8% 84-104 781-837 655-707 5.1 -9 -63
Yankees 92.1 69.9 835 730 31.0% 18.1% 49.0% 82-102 806-864 703-757 -2.9 -24 37
Rays 87.0 75.0 765 700 17.5% 15.0% 32.5% 77-97 737-792 674-727 -9.0 -37 51
Orioles 80.0 82.0 752 767 7.2% 7.7% 14.9% 70-90 725-780 740-795 14.0 139 -18
Blue Jays 75.4 86.6 690 742 3.2% 4.2% 7.4% 65-85 664-716 715-769 -9.6 -65 14
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Tigers 83.4 78.6 720 700 29.0% 6.0% 34.9% 73-93 693-747 673-726 2.4 -31 -43
Twins 83.2 78.8 764 748 26.3% 5.7% 32.0% 73-93 736-791 721-776 -10.8 -17 77
White Sox 83.1 78.9 746 745 27.9% 6.2% 34.1% 73-93 719-773 718-772 -4.9 3 0
Indians 76.4 85.6 734 769 12.3% 3.7% 15.9% 66-86 707-761 741-797 7.4 88 17
Royals 69.7 92.3 705 816 4.5% 1.3% 5.8% 60-80 678-732 787-844 2.7 29 -29
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Rangers 85.8 76.2 740 693 41.7% 4.8% 46.5% 76-96 713-767 666-719 -4.2 -47 6
Athletics 83.0 79.0 664 646 31.1% 4.9% 35.9% 73-93 638-689 620-671 2.0 1 20
Angels 78.5 83.5 636 651 18.4% 3.3% 21.7% 69-89 611-662 625-676 -1.5 -45 -51
Mariners 72.7 89.3 622 704 8.8% 1.6% 10.4% 63-83 597-647 677-730 11.7 109 6
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Phillies 91.0 71.0 731 638 42.4% 10.6% 53.0% 81-101 704-758 612-663 -6.0 -41 -2
Braves 87.0 75.0 716 658 29.5% 11.1% 40.6% 77-97 690-743 633-684 -4.0 -22 29
Marlins 81.2 80.8 692 684 14.8% 7.0% 21.8% 71-91 665-718 658-710 1.2 -27 -33
Mets 78.8 83.2 717 744 10.1% 5.3% 15.4% 69-89 690-744 717-771 -0.2 61 92
Nationals 70.0 92.0 661 760 3.1% 1.6% 4.7% 60-80 635-687 732-787 1.0 6 18
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Cardinals 84.2 77.8 738 707 30.0% 7.1% 37.1% 74-94 711-765 680-734 -1.8 2 66
Brewers 82.6 79.4 723 707 22.0% 6.5% 28.5% 73-93 696-750 680-734 5.6 -27 -97
Cubs 81.3 80.7 729 723 20.5% 5.6% 26.2% 71-91 702-756 696-750 6.3 44 -44
Reds 81.3 80.7 718 715 20.2% 6.2% 26.4% 71-91 692-745 688-742 -9.7 -72 30
Pirates 70.2 91.8 677 780 4.4% 1.7% 6.1% 60-80 651-703 752-807 13.2 90 -86
Astros 67.0 95.0 569 692 2.9% 1.0% 3.9% 57-77 545-593 666-719 -9.0 -42 -37
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Giants 89.5 72.5 692 620 38.4% 10.3% 48.8% 80-100 666-719 595-645 -2.5 -5 37
Dodgers 84.9 77.1 670 642 25.0% 8.8% 33.8% 75-95 644-696 617-667 4.9 3 -50
Rockies 82.4 79.6 792 774 17.5% 7.9% 25.5% 72-92 764-820 746-801 -0.6 22 57
Padres 79.9 82.1 649 671 12.6% 6.1% 18.7% 70-90 624-675 645-697 -10.1 -16 90
Diamondbacks 74.5 87.5 665 717 6.4% 3.2% 9.6% 65-85 639-691 690-744 9.5 -48 -119

W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
W Std: Wins range within one standard deviation
RS Std: Runs scored within one standard deviation
RA Std: Runs allowed within one standard deviation
W+/-: 2011 projected wins minus 2010 actual wins
RS+/-: 2011 projected runs scored minus 2010 actual runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2011 projected runs allowed minus 2010 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

Here are the division title percentages in pie chart form.

--Posted at 6:50 am by SG / No Comments | - (0)

Comments

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