Monday, March 28, 2011

The 2011 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - PECOTA Edition

Originally developed by Nate Silver, who’s moved on to bigger things, PECOTA from Baseball Prospectus has in the past been considered one the best projection systems.  Since Silver left they have had a few issues, but it’s now in the hands of Colin Wyers who is one of the best baseball analysts around, so I’d expect it to be pretty good again.  Baseball Prospectus runs their own projected standings, so these should NOT be considered what PECOTA is projecting.  It’s more what PECOTA is projecting using my depth charts for all the other projections.  The difference shouldn’t be more than 1-2 games in either direction for the most part.

Here’s how this version of the projected standings shape up.

American League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Red Sox	94.1	67.9	809	681	41.1%	17.7%	58.8%	84-104	781-837	655-707	5.1	-9	-63
Yankees	92.1	69.9	835	730	31.0%	18.1%	49.0%	82-102	806-864	703-757	-2.9	-24	37
Rays	87.0	75.0	765	700	17.5%	15.0%	32.5%	77-97	737-792	674-727	-9.0	-37	51
Orioles	80.0	82.0	752	767	7.2%	7.7%	14.9%	70-90	725-780	740-795	14.0	139	-18
Blue Jays	75.4	86.6	690	742	3.2%	4.2%	7.4%	65-85	664-716	715-769	-9.6	-65	14
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Tigers	83.4	78.6	720	700	29.0%	6.0%	34.9%	73-93	693-747	673-726	2.4	-31	-43
Twins	83.2	78.8	764	748	26.3%	5.7%	32.0%	73-93	736-791	721-776	-10.8	-17	77
White Sox	83.1	78.9	746	745	27.9%	6.2%	34.1%	73-93	719-773	718-772	-4.9	3	0
Indians	76.4	85.6	734	769	12.3%	3.7%	15.9%	66-86	707-761	741-797	7.4	88	17
Royals	69.7	92.3	705	816	4.5%	1.3%	5.8%	60-80	678-732	787-844	2.7	29	-29
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Rangers	85.8	76.2	740	693	41.7%	4.8%	46.5%	76-96	713-767	666-719	-4.2	-47	6
Athletics	83.0	79.0	664	646	31.1%	4.9%	35.9%	73-93	638-689	620-671	2.0	1	20
Angels	78.5	83.5	636	651	18.4%	3.3%	21.7%	69-89	611-662	625-676	-1.5	-45	-51
Mariners	72.7	89.3	622	704	8.8%	1.6%	10.4%	63-83	597-647	677-730	11.7	109	6
National League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Phillies	91.0	71.0	731	638	42.4%	10.6%	53.0%	81-101	704-758	612-663	-6.0	-41	-2
Braves	87.0	75.0	716	658	29.5%	11.1%	40.6%	77-97	690-743	633-684	-4.0	-22	29
Marlins	81.2	80.8	692	684	14.8%	7.0%	21.8%	71-91	665-718	658-710	1.2	-27	-33
Mets	78.8	83.2	717	744	10.1%	5.3%	15.4%	69-89	690-744	717-771	-0.2	61	92
Nationals	70.0	92.0	661	760	3.1%	1.6%	4.7%	60-80	635-687	732-787	1.0	6	18
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Cardinals	84.2	77.8	738	707	30.0%	7.1%	37.1%	74-94	711-765	680-734	-1.8	2	66
Brewers	82.6	79.4	723	707	22.0%	6.5%	28.5%	73-93	696-750	680-734	5.6	-27	-97
Cubs	81.3	80.7	729	723	20.5%	5.6%	26.2%	71-91	702-756	696-750	6.3	44	-44
Reds	81.3	80.7	718	715	20.2%	6.2%	26.4%	71-91	692-745	688-742	-9.7	-72	30
Pirates	70.2	91.8	677	780	4.4%	1.7%	6.1%	60-80	651-703	752-807	13.2	90	-86
Astros	67.0	95.0	569	692	2.9%	1.0%	3.9%	57-77	545-593	666-719	-9.0	-42	-37
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Giants	89.5	72.5	692	620	38.4%	10.3%	48.8%	80-100	666-719	595-645	-2.5	-5	37
Dodgers	84.9	77.1	670	642	25.0%	8.8%	33.8%	75-95	644-696	617-667	4.9	3	-50
Rockies	82.4	79.6	792	774	17.5%	7.9%	25.5%	72-92	764-820	746-801	-0.6	22	57
Padres	79.9	82.1	649	671	12.6%	6.1%	18.7%	70-90	624-675	645-697	-10.1	-16	90
Diamondbacks	74.5	87.5	665	717	6.4%	3.2%	9.6%	65-85	639-691	690-744	9.5	-48	-119

W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
W Std: Wins range within one standard deviation
RS Std: Runs scored within one standard deviation
RA Std: Runs allowed within one standard deviation
W+/-: 2011 projected wins minus 2010 actual wins
RS+/-: 2011 projected runs scored minus 2010 actual runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2011 projected runs allowed minus 2010 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

Here are the division title percentages in pie chart form.

Comments

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