The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Monday, March 28, 2011

The 2011 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - Oliver Edition

Available from the THT Forecasts at The Hardball Times, Oliver is another projection system with Marcel at its heart, although it uses MLEs to try and better project minor leaguers and it also projects defense.  They also run their own projected standings, which are available here.  Like with PECOTA, these projected standings will differ from the official Oliver forecasts at THT, primarily due to differences in playing time estimates.  Here’s how my version of Oliver projected standings look.

American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Red Sox 95.4 66.6 813 672 46.5% 18.3% 64.8% 85-105 784-841 646-697 6.4 -5 -72
Yankees 93.5 68.5 801 682 36.6% 19.1% 55.7% 83-103 773-829 656-708 -1.5 -58 -11
Rays 83.2 78.8 787 759 10.7% 10.6% 21.3% 73-93 759-815 732-787 -12.8 -15 110
Orioles 75.8 86.2 744 796 4.0% 4.9% 8.9% 66-86 717-772 768-825 9.8 131 11
Blue Jays 72.5 89.5 679 763 2.2% 2.6% 4.7% 63-83 653-705 736-791 -12.5 -76 35
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Twins 86.0 76.0 803 754 32.7% 8.2% 40.8% 76-96 775-832 727-781 -8.0 22 83
Tigers 85.9 76.1 723 676 33.0% 7.3% 40.2% 76-96 696-750 650-702 4.9 -28 -67
White Sox 82.9 79.1 725 724 24.5% 6.8% 31.3% 73-93 698-752 697-751 -5.1 -18 -21
Indians 74.3 87.7 746 808 7.2% 2.5% 9.7% 64-84 719-773 779-836 5.3 100 56
Royals 67.4 94.6 693 831 2.6% 1.0% 3.5% 57-77 667-719 802-860 0.4 17 -14
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Rangers 89.5 72.5 741 664 48.9% 6.0% 54.9% 80-100 714-769 638-690 -0.5 -46 -23
Athletics 84.9 77.1 713 668 28.5% 6.6% 35.1% 75-95 686-740 642-694 3.9 50 42
Mariners 76.9 85.1 683 728 11.4% 3.3% 14.7% 67-87 657-709 701-755 15.9 170 30
Angels 76.6 85.4 675 705 11.2% 3.0% 14.3% 67-87 649-701 679-732 -3.4 -6 3
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Phillies 90.4 71.6 729 646 36.3% 11.0% 47.4% 80-100 702-756 620-671 -6.6 -43 6
Braves 88.9 73.1 761 681 32.9% 11.0% 43.9% 79-99 734-789 655-707 -2.1 23 52
Marlins 82.3 79.7 722 705 14.5% 7.1% 21.6% 72-92 695-749 678-731 2.3 3 -12
Mets 81.8 80.2 750 748 13.0% 6.2% 19.2% 72-92 723-777 721-776 2.8 94 96
Nationals 71.3 90.7 688 778 3.3% 1.7% 5.0% 61-81 662-714 750-805 2.3 33 36
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Reds 90.2 71.8 721 642 45.5% 8.9% 54.4% 80-100 694-748 617-668 -0.8 -69 -43
Cardinals 83.1 78.9 764 744 22.0% 9.1% 31.1% 73-93 736-791 717-771 -2.9 28 103
Brewers 82.4 79.6 720 704 17.7% 7.2% 24.9% 72-92 693-746 678-731 5.4 -30 -100
Cubs 78.2 83.8 680 701 10.8% 4.9% 15.8% 68-88 654-707 675-728 3.2 -5 -66
Pirates 67.8 94.2 687 815 2.7% 1.3% 3.9% 58-78 661-714 786-843 10.8 100 -51
Astros 63.8 98.2 576 728 1.3% 0.6% 1.9% 54-74 552-600 701-755 -12.2 -35 -1
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Giants 91.2 70.8 704 617 45.2% 9.0% 54.2% 81-101 678-731 592-642 -0.8 7 34
Rockies 84.3 77.7 727 695 22.1% 8.4% 30.5% 74-94 700-754 668-721 1.3 -43 -22
Dodgers 84.2 77.8 689 660 22.9% 9.0% 31.9% 74-94 663-716 634-686 4.2 22 -32
Padres 73.5 88.5 688 765 5.6% 2.6% 8.1% 63-83 662-714 738-793 -16.5 23 184
Diamondbacks 72.0 90.0 650 726 4.2% 2.1% 6.3% 62-82 625-676 699-753 7.0 -63 -110

W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
W Std: Wins range within one standard deviation
RS Std: Runs scored within one standard deviation
RA Std: Runs allowed within one standard deviation
W+/-: 2011 projected wins minus 2010 actual wins
RS+/-: 2011 projected runs scored minus 2010 actual runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2011 projected runs allowed minus 2010 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

Here are the division title percentages in pie chart form.

--Posted at 6:55 am by SG / No Comments | - (0)

Comments

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