Monday, March 28, 2011

The 2011 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - Oliver Edition

Available from the THT Forecasts at The Hardball Times, Oliver is another projection system with Marcel at its heart, although it uses MLEs to try and better project minor leaguers and it also projects defense.  They also run their own projected standings, which are available here.  Like with PECOTA, these projected standings will differ from the official Oliver forecasts at THT, primarily due to differences in playing time estimates.  Here’s how my version of Oliver projected standings look.

American League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Red Sox	95.4	66.6	813	672	46.5%	18.3%	64.8%	85-105	784-841	646-697	6.4	-5	-72
Yankees	93.5	68.5	801	682	36.6%	19.1%	55.7%	83-103	773-829	656-708	-1.5	-58	-11
Rays	83.2	78.8	787	759	10.7%	10.6%	21.3%	73-93	759-815	732-787	-12.8	-15	110
Orioles	75.8	86.2	744	796	4.0%	4.9%	8.9%	66-86	717-772	768-825	9.8	131	11
Blue Jays	72.5	89.5	679	763	2.2%	2.6%	4.7%	63-83	653-705	736-791	-12.5	-76	35
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Twins	86.0	76.0	803	754	32.7%	8.2%	40.8%	76-96	775-832	727-781	-8.0	22	83
Tigers	85.9	76.1	723	676	33.0%	7.3%	40.2%	76-96	696-750	650-702	4.9	-28	-67
White Sox	82.9	79.1	725	724	24.5%	6.8%	31.3%	73-93	698-752	697-751	-5.1	-18	-21
Indians	74.3	87.7	746	808	7.2%	2.5%	9.7%	64-84	719-773	779-836	5.3	100	56
Royals	67.4	94.6	693	831	2.6%	1.0%	3.5%	57-77	667-719	802-860	0.4	17	-14
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Rangers	89.5	72.5	741	664	48.9%	6.0%	54.9%	80-100	714-769	638-690	-0.5	-46	-23
Athletics	84.9	77.1	713	668	28.5%	6.6%	35.1%	75-95	686-740	642-694	3.9	50	42
Mariners	76.9	85.1	683	728	11.4%	3.3%	14.7%	67-87	657-709	701-755	15.9	170	30
Angels	76.6	85.4	675	705	11.2%	3.0%	14.3%	67-87	649-701	679-732	-3.4	-6	3
National League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Phillies	90.4	71.6	729	646	36.3%	11.0%	47.4%	80-100	702-756	620-671	-6.6	-43	6
Braves	88.9	73.1	761	681	32.9%	11.0%	43.9%	79-99	734-789	655-707	-2.1	23	52
Marlins	82.3	79.7	722	705	14.5%	7.1%	21.6%	72-92	695-749	678-731	2.3	3	-12
Mets	81.8	80.2	750	748	13.0%	6.2%	19.2%	72-92	723-777	721-776	2.8	94	96
Nationals	71.3	90.7	688	778	3.3%	1.7%	5.0%	61-81	662-714	750-805	2.3	33	36
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Reds	90.2	71.8	721	642	45.5%	8.9%	54.4%	80-100	694-748	617-668	-0.8	-69	-43
Cardinals	83.1	78.9	764	744	22.0%	9.1%	31.1%	73-93	736-791	717-771	-2.9	28	103
Brewers	82.4	79.6	720	704	17.7%	7.2%	24.9%	72-92	693-746	678-731	5.4	-30	-100
Cubs	78.2	83.8	680	701	10.8%	4.9%	15.8%	68-88	654-707	675-728	3.2	-5	-66
Pirates	67.8	94.2	687	815	2.7%	1.3%	3.9%	58-78	661-714	786-843	10.8	100	-51
Astros	63.8	98.2	576	728	1.3%	0.6%	1.9%	54-74	552-600	701-755	-12.2	-35	-1
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Giants	91.2	70.8	704	617	45.2%	9.0%	54.2%	81-101	678-731	592-642	-0.8	7	34
Rockies	84.3	77.7	727	695	22.1%	8.4%	30.5%	74-94	700-754	668-721	1.3	-43	-22
Dodgers	84.2	77.8	689	660	22.9%	9.0%	31.9%	74-94	663-716	634-686	4.2	22	-32
Padres	73.5	88.5	688	765	5.6%	2.6%	8.1%	63-83	662-714	738-793	-16.5	23	184
Diamondbacks	72.0	90.0	650	726	4.2%	2.1%	6.3%	62-82	625-676	699-753	7.0	-63	-110

W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
W Std: Wins range within one standard deviation
RS Std: Runs scored within one standard deviation
RA Std: Runs allowed within one standard deviation
W+/-: 2011 projected wins minus 2010 actual wins
RS+/-: 2011 projected runs scored minus 2010 actual runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2011 projected runs allowed minus 2010 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

Here are the division title percentages in pie chart form.

Comments

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