Monday, March 28, 2011

The 2011 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - Marcel Edition

Marcel was developed by Tangotiger of The Book fame.

As an aside, Tango is running a community playing time forecast if you want to help him out.

Back to Marcel, although it’s considered the most basic projection system, it is generally as good as any other system since added complexity really hasn’t shown to add all that much accuracy over Marcel, and the principles behind it are solid and should be the basis for any good forecasting system.  Here’s how it sees things looking in 2011.

American League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Red Sox	91.6	70.4	841	734	40.0%	14.4%	54.4%	82-102	812-870	707-762	2.6	23	-10
Yankees	89.0	73.0	785	711	28.5%	14.1%	42.5%	79-99	757-813	685-738	-6.0	-74	18
Rays	85.3	76.7	747	699	19.2%	11.5%	30.7%	75-95	720-775	673-726	-10.7	-55	50
Orioles	78.8	83.2	754	780	8.7%	6.2%	14.9%	69-89	726-781	752-808	12.8	141	-5
Blue Jays	72.4	89.6	691	768	3.7%	2.6%	6.3%	62-82	665-717	740-796	-12.6	-64	40
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Twins	85.7	76.3	757	709	34.3%	7.2%	41.5%	76-96	729-784	682-736	-8.3	-24	38
White Sox	83.5	78.5	714	701	26.3%	7.2%	33.5%	73-93	687-740	674-727	-4.5	-29	-44
Tigers	83.3	78.7	717	696	26.3%	7.6%	33.9%	73-93	690-744	669-722	2.3	-34	-47
Indians	75.1	86.9	693	747	9.8%	3.0%	12.9%	65-85	667-720	720-775	6.1	47	-5
Royals	68.4	93.6	659	783	3.3%	1.2%	4.5%	58-78	633-685	755-811	1.4	-17	-62
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Rangers	88.7	73.3	781	710	42.9%	8.2%	51.2%	79-99	753-809	684-737	-1.3	-6	23
Athletics	85.6	76.4	679	644	30.2%	7.8%	38.0%	76-96	653-705	618-669	4.6	16	18
Angels	79.9	82.1	697	703	16.0%	5.6%	21.6%	70-90	670-723	676-729	-0.1	16	1
Mariners	76.7	85.3	634	673	10.8%	3.5%	14.3%	67-87	609-659	647-699	15.7	121	-25
National League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Phillies	87.7	74.3	715	654	34.9%	9.4%	44.3%	78-98	689-742	628-679	-9.3	-57	14
Braves	85.2	76.9	695	654	27.3%	9.0%	36.3%	75-95	668-721	628-679	-5.8	-43	25
Marlins	81.6	80.4	694	685	17.2%	7.0%	24.2%	72-92	667-720	659-711	1.6	-25	-32
Mets	79.9	82.1	670	679	13.9%	5.6%	19.5%	70-90	644-696	653-705	0.9	14	27
Nationals	73.8	88.2	655	719	6.7%	3.1%	9.8%	64-84	629-680	692-746	4.8	0	-23
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Reds	83.7	78.3	740	712	27.6%	8.0%	35.6%	74-94	713-767	686-739	-7.3	-50	27
Cardinals	82.3	79.7	732	724	24.5%	7.5%	32.0%	72-92	705-759	698-751	-3.7	-4	83
Cubs	80.5	81.5	718	721	18.7%	6.3%	25.0%	71-91	691-744	694-747	5.5	33	-46
Brewers	79.3	82.7	710	728	15.1%	5.3%	20.4%	69-89	683-736	701-755	2.3	-40	-76
Pirates	74.5	87.5	679	736	10.0%	3.3%	13.4%	64-84	653-705	709-763	17.5	92	-130
Astros	69.6	92.4	609	715	4.1%	1.6%	5.8%	60-80	585-634	688-742	-6.4	-2	-14
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Dodgers	85.3	76.7	657	624	28.4%	8.8%	37.2%	75-95	631-682	599-649	5.3	-10	-68
Giants	84.3	77.7	647	620	24.8%	7.9%	32.7%	74-94	622-673	595-645	-7.7	-50	37
Rockies	83.3	78.7	764	741	23.5%	7.3%	30.7%	73-93	736-792	713-768	0.3	-6	24
Padres	79.8	82.2	616	633	14.6%	6.4%	21.0%	70-90	592-641	608-658	-10.2	-49	52
Diamondbacks	75.4	86.6	686	732	8.8%	3.5%	12.3%	65-85	660-712	705-759	10.4	-27	-104

W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
W Std: Wins range within one standard deviation
RS Std: Runs scored within one standard deviation
RA Std: Runs allowed within one standard deviation
W+/-: 2011 projected wins minus 2010 actual wins
RS+/-: 2011 projected runs scored minus 2010 actual runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2011 projected runs allowed minus 2010 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

Here are the division title percentages in pie chart form.

Comments

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