The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Monday, March 28, 2011

The 2011 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - Marcel Edition

Marcel was developed by Tangotiger of The Book fame.

As an aside, Tango is running a community playing time forecast if you want to help him out.

Back to Marcel, although it’s considered the most basic projection system, it is generally as good as any other system since added complexity really hasn’t shown to add all that much accuracy over Marcel, and the principles behind it are solid and should be the basis for any good forecasting system.  Here’s how it sees things looking in 2011.

American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Red Sox 91.6 70.4 841 734 40.0% 14.4% 54.4% 82-102 812-870 707-762 2.6 23 -10
Yankees 89.0 73.0 785 711 28.5% 14.1% 42.5% 79-99 757-813 685-738 -6.0 -74 18
Rays 85.3 76.7 747 699 19.2% 11.5% 30.7% 75-95 720-775 673-726 -10.7 -55 50
Orioles 78.8 83.2 754 780 8.7% 6.2% 14.9% 69-89 726-781 752-808 12.8 141 -5
Blue Jays 72.4 89.6 691 768 3.7% 2.6% 6.3% 62-82 665-717 740-796 -12.6 -64 40
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Twins 85.7 76.3 757 709 34.3% 7.2% 41.5% 76-96 729-784 682-736 -8.3 -24 38
White Sox 83.5 78.5 714 701 26.3% 7.2% 33.5% 73-93 687-740 674-727 -4.5 -29 -44
Tigers 83.3 78.7 717 696 26.3% 7.6% 33.9% 73-93 690-744 669-722 2.3 -34 -47
Indians 75.1 86.9 693 747 9.8% 3.0% 12.9% 65-85 667-720 720-775 6.1 47 -5
Royals 68.4 93.6 659 783 3.3% 1.2% 4.5% 58-78 633-685 755-811 1.4 -17 -62
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Rangers 88.7 73.3 781 710 42.9% 8.2% 51.2% 79-99 753-809 684-737 -1.3 -6 23
Athletics 85.6 76.4 679 644 30.2% 7.8% 38.0% 76-96 653-705 618-669 4.6 16 18
Angels 79.9 82.1 697 703 16.0% 5.6% 21.6% 70-90 670-723 676-729 -0.1 16 1
Mariners 76.7 85.3 634 673 10.8% 3.5% 14.3% 67-87 609-659 647-699 15.7 121 -25
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Phillies 87.7 74.3 715 654 34.9% 9.4% 44.3% 78-98 689-742 628-679 -9.3 -57 14
Braves 85.2 76.9 695 654 27.3% 9.0% 36.3% 75-95 668-721 628-679 -5.8 -43 25
Marlins 81.6 80.4 694 685 17.2% 7.0% 24.2% 72-92 667-720 659-711 1.6 -25 -32
Mets 79.9 82.1 670 679 13.9% 5.6% 19.5% 70-90 644-696 653-705 0.9 14 27
Nationals 73.8 88.2 655 719 6.7% 3.1% 9.8% 64-84 629-680 692-746 4.8 0 -23
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Reds 83.7 78.3 740 712 27.6% 8.0% 35.6% 74-94 713-767 686-739 -7.3 -50 27
Cardinals 82.3 79.7 732 724 24.5% 7.5% 32.0% 72-92 705-759 698-751 -3.7 -4 83
Cubs 80.5 81.5 718 721 18.7% 6.3% 25.0% 71-91 691-744 694-747 5.5 33 -46
Brewers 79.3 82.7 710 728 15.1% 5.3% 20.4% 69-89 683-736 701-755 2.3 -40 -76
Pirates 74.5 87.5 679 736 10.0% 3.3% 13.4% 64-84 653-705 709-763 17.5 92 -130
Astros 69.6 92.4 609 715 4.1% 1.6% 5.8% 60-80 585-634 688-742 -6.4 -2 -14
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Dodgers 85.3 76.7 657 624 28.4% 8.8% 37.2% 75-95 631-682 599-649 5.3 -10 -68
Giants 84.3 77.7 647 620 24.8% 7.9% 32.7% 74-94 622-673 595-645 -7.7 -50 37
Rockies 83.3 78.7 764 741 23.5% 7.3% 30.7% 73-93 736-792 713-768 0.3 -6 24
Padres 79.8 82.2 616 633 14.6% 6.4% 21.0% 70-90 592-641 608-658 -10.2 -49 52
Diamondbacks 75.4 86.6 686 732 8.8% 3.5% 12.3% 65-85 660-712 705-759 10.4 -27 -104


W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
W Std: Wins range within one standard deviation
RS Std: Runs scored within one standard deviation
RA Std: Runs allowed within one standard deviation
W+/-: 2011 projected wins minus 2010 actual wins
RS+/-: 2011 projected runs scored minus 2010 actual runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2011 projected runs allowed minus 2010 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

Here are the division title percentages in pie chart form.

--Posted at 6:46 am by SG / No Comments | - (0)

Comments

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