Monday, March 28, 2011

The 2011 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - CAIRO Edition

CAIRO is my own in-house projection system, which is based on Marcel with the following changes.

1) I use the prior four years of data, whereas Marcel uses only the prior three years.
2) I make adjustments for park, which Marcel does not do.
3) I use major league equivalencies for players who’ve played in the minors, which Marcel does not do.
4) I account for the defense behind a pitcher in their prior seasons as well as in projecting them for the next season, which Marcel does not do.
5) Marcel regresses everyone towards league average, I also regress towards different additional means based on player age and primary position.

You can download the latest version of the 2011 CAIRO projections at this link.

Here’s how CAIRO projects the 2011 MLB standings.

American League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Red Sox	95.8	66.2	826	684	42.8%	18.7%	61.5%	86-106	798-855	658-710	6.8	8	-60
Yankees	93.1	68.9	821	713	31.7%	19.4%	51.1%	83-103	792-849	686-739	-1.9	-38	20
Rays	87.6	74.4	734	660	17.8%	14.9%	32.7%	78-98	707-761	634-686	-8.4	-68	11
Orioles	77.2	84.8	746	790	4.3%	5.3%	9.5%	67-87	718-773	762-818	11.2	133	5
Blue Jays	75.8	86.2	689	737	3.5%	3.9%	7.4%	66-86	663-716	710-764	-9.2	-66	9
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Tigers	84.3	77.7	713	696	34.4%	5.7%	40.1%	74-94	686-739	670-723	3.3	-38	-47
White Sox	83.1	78.9	718	712	30.7%	5.5%	36.3%	73-93	691-745	686-739	-4.9	-25	-33
Twins	81.7	80.3	747	732	25.2%	5.3%	30.5%	72-92	720-775	705-759	-12.3	-34	61
Indians	71.4	90.6	707	788	6.4%	1.7%	8.1%	61-81	681-734	760-817	2.4	61	36
Royals	66.6	95.4	661	803	3.3%	0.7%	4.0%	57-77	636-687	774-831	-0.4	-15	-42
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Rangers	89.3	72.7	730	652	48.1%	6.7%	54.9%	79-99	703-757	626-677	-0.7	-57	-35
Athletics	85.5	76.5	669	626	32.1%	6.3%	38.4%	76-96	643-695	601-651	4.5	6	0
Angels	77.7	84.3	659	686	14.1%	3.9%	18.0%	68-88	633-685	659-712	-2.3	-22	-16
Mariners	72.1	89.9	619	703	5.6%	1.9%	7.6%	62-82	594-644	676-729	11.1	106	5
National League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Phillies	92.8	69.2	742	630	45.0%	10.6%	55.6%	83-103	714-769	605-655	-4.2	-30	-10
Braves	86.6	75.4	736	674	25.6%	10.7%	36.3%	77-97	709-763	648-700	-4.4	-2	45
Marlins	82.8	79.2	677	655	15.3%	7.7%	22.9%	73-93	651-703	630-681	2.8	-42	-62
Mets	79.0	83.0	662	681	8.9%	5.1%	14.0%	69-89	637-688	655-707	0.0	6	29
Nationals	74.1	87.9	653	714	5.2%	2.8%	8.0%	64-84	627-679	687-740	5.1	-2	-28
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Reds	86.9	75.1	749	697	31.1%	10.2%	41.3%	77-97	721-776	670-723	-4.1	-41	12
Brewers	86.0	76.0	754	702	26.3%	9.0%	35.3%	76-96	727-782	675-728	9.0	4	-102
Cardinals	85.3	76.7	748	712	28.4%	9.1%	37.5%	75-95	721-775	685-738	-0.7	12	71
Cubs	78.4	83.6	733	755	10.7%	5.2%	15.9%	68-88	706-760	728-783	3.4	48	-12
Pirates	66.7	95.3	673	805	2.1%	1.1%	3.2%	57-77	647-699	777-834	9.7	86	-61
Astros	65.3	96.7	598	749	1.4%	0.9%	2.3%	55-75	573-622	721-776	-10.7	-13	20
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Giants	87.2	74.9	704	652	35.7%	7.2%	42.9%	77-97	678-731	627-678	-4.8	7	69
Rockies	83.1	78.9	769	749	22.3%	6.6%	29.0%	73-93	742-797	721-776	0.1	-1	32
Padres	81.1	80.9	651	652	18.4%	5.8%	24.2%	71-91	626-677	626-677	-8.9	-14	71
Dodgers	80.9	81.1	676	679	17.8%	6.0%	23.8%	71-91	650-702	653-705	0.9	9	-13
Diamondbacks	72.4	89.6	695	773	5.8%	2.0%	7.8%	62-82	669-721	745-801	7.4	-18	-63

W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
W Std: Wins range within one standard deviation
RS Std: Runs scored within one standard deviation
RA Std: Runs allowed within one standard deviation
W+/-: 2011 projected wins minus 2010 actual wins
RS+/-: 2011 projected runs scored minus 2010 actual runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2011 projected runs allowed minus 2010 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

Here are the division title percentages in pie chart form.

Comments

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