The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Monday, March 28, 2011

The 2011 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - CAIRO Edition

CAIRO is my own in-house projection system, which is based on Marcel with the following changes.

1) I use the prior four years of data, whereas Marcel uses only the prior three years.
2) I make adjustments for park, which Marcel does not do.
3) I use major league equivalencies for players who’ve played in the minors, which Marcel does not do.
4) I account for the defense behind a pitcher in their prior seasons as well as in projecting them for the next season, which Marcel does not do.
5) Marcel regresses everyone towards league average, I also regress towards different additional means based on player age and primary position.

You can download the latest version of the 2011 CAIRO projections at this link.

Here’s how CAIRO projects the 2011 MLB standings.

American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Red Sox 95.8 66.2 826 684 42.8% 18.7% 61.5% 86-106 798-855 658-710 6.8 8 -60
Yankees 93.1 68.9 821 713 31.7% 19.4% 51.1% 83-103 792-849 686-739 -1.9 -38 20
Rays 87.6 74.4 734 660 17.8% 14.9% 32.7% 78-98 707-761 634-686 -8.4 -68 11
Orioles 77.2 84.8 746 790 4.3% 5.3% 9.5% 67-87 718-773 762-818 11.2 133 5
Blue Jays 75.8 86.2 689 737 3.5% 3.9% 7.4% 66-86 663-716 710-764 -9.2 -66 9
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Tigers 84.3 77.7 713 696 34.4% 5.7% 40.1% 74-94 686-739 670-723 3.3 -38 -47
White Sox 83.1 78.9 718 712 30.7% 5.5% 36.3% 73-93 691-745 686-739 -4.9 -25 -33
Twins 81.7 80.3 747 732 25.2% 5.3% 30.5% 72-92 720-775 705-759 -12.3 -34 61
Indians 71.4 90.6 707 788 6.4% 1.7% 8.1% 61-81 681-734 760-817 2.4 61 36
Royals 66.6 95.4 661 803 3.3% 0.7% 4.0% 57-77 636-687 774-831 -0.4 -15 -42
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Rangers 89.3 72.7 730 652 48.1% 6.7% 54.9% 79-99 703-757 626-677 -0.7 -57 -35
Athletics 85.5 76.5 669 626 32.1% 6.3% 38.4% 76-96 643-695 601-651 4.5 6 0
Angels 77.7 84.3 659 686 14.1% 3.9% 18.0% 68-88 633-685 659-712 -2.3 -22 -16
Mariners 72.1 89.9 619 703 5.6% 1.9% 7.6% 62-82 594-644 676-729 11.1 106 5
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Phillies 92.8 69.2 742 630 45.0% 10.6% 55.6% 83-103 714-769 605-655 -4.2 -30 -10
Braves 86.6 75.4 736 674 25.6% 10.7% 36.3% 77-97 709-763 648-700 -4.4 -2 45
Marlins 82.8 79.2 677 655 15.3% 7.7% 22.9% 73-93 651-703 630-681 2.8 -42 -62
Mets 79.0 83.0 662 681 8.9% 5.1% 14.0% 69-89 637-688 655-707 0.0 6 29
Nationals 74.1 87.9 653 714 5.2% 2.8% 8.0% 64-84 627-679 687-740 5.1 -2 -28
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Reds 86.9 75.1 749 697 31.1% 10.2% 41.3% 77-97 721-776 670-723 -4.1 -41 12
Brewers 86.0 76.0 754 702 26.3% 9.0% 35.3% 76-96 727-782 675-728 9.0 4 -102
Cardinals 85.3 76.7 748 712 28.4% 9.1% 37.5% 75-95 721-775 685-738 -0.7 12 71
Cubs 78.4 83.6 733 755 10.7% 5.2% 15.9% 68-88 706-760 728-783 3.4 48 -12
Pirates 66.7 95.3 673 805 2.1% 1.1% 3.2% 57-77 647-699 777-834 9.7 86 -61
Astros 65.3 96.7 598 749 1.4% 0.9% 2.3% 55-75 573-622 721-776 -10.7 -13 20
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Giants 87.2 74.9 704 652 35.7% 7.2% 42.9% 77-97 678-731 627-678 -4.8 7 69
Rockies 83.1 78.9 769 749 22.3% 6.6% 29.0% 73-93 742-797 721-776 0.1 -1 32
Padres 81.1 80.9 651 652 18.4% 5.8% 24.2% 71-91 626-677 626-677 -8.9 -14 71
Dodgers 80.9 81.1 676 679 17.8% 6.0% 23.8% 71-91 650-702 653-705 0.9 9 -13
Diamondbacks 72.4 89.6 695 773 5.8% 2.0% 7.8% 62-82 669-721 745-801 7.4 -18 -63

W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
W Std: Wins range within one standard deviation
RS Std: Runs scored within one standard deviation
RA Std: Runs allowed within one standard deviation
W+/-: 2011 projected wins minus 2010 actual wins
RS+/-: 2011 projected runs scored minus 2010 actual runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2011 projected runs allowed minus 2010 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

Here are the division title percentages in pie chart form.

--Posted at 6:35 am by SG / No Comments | - (0)

Comments

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