The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

The 2010 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - American League Edition

Following up on the first part of this post, here’s a look at the aggregate projections for the American League.  The same caveats and disclaimers apply here as well.  To see the breakdown for each projection system, check the following links.

2010 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - CHONE Edition
2010 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - Marcel Edition
2010 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - Oliver Edition
2010 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - PECOTA Edition
2010 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - CAIRO Edition

American League
TM W L StdW RS RA Div WC W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Yankees 96.1 65.9 85 - 105 895 734 40.7% 22.3% -6.9 -20 -19
Red Sox 92.9 69.1 82 - 103 821 696 30.3% 22.7% -2.1 -51 -40
Rays 91.2 70.8 80 - 101 810 706 25.4% 20.7% 7.2 7 -48
Orioles 74.6 87.4 64 - 85 762 808 3.0% 5.3% 10.6 21 -68
Blue Jays 65.1 96.9 54 - 75 689 817 0.7% 1.2% -9.9 -109 46
TM W L StdW RS RA Div WC W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Twins 83.1 78.9 72 - 93 828 815 31.0% 3.8% -3.9 11 50
Indians 79.9 82.1 69 - 90 803 825 22.2% 3.2% 14.9 30 -40
White Sox 79.8 82.2 69 - 90 745 768 21.4% 3.4% 0.8 21 36
Tigers 77.9 84.1 67 - 88 741 779 17.2% 2.7% -8.1 -2 34
Royals 71.5 90.5 60 - 82 719 813 8.2% 1.1% 6.5 33 -29
TM W L StdW RS RA Div WC W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Rangers 84.4 77.6 73 - 94 787 761 35.2% 3.7% -2.6 3 21
Mariners 81.4 80.6 70 - 91 733 723 25.6% 3.8% -3.6 93 31
Athletics 79.2 82.8 68 - 89 726 737 20.5% 3.3% 4.2 -33 -24
Angels 78.0 84.0 67 - 88 766 787 18.7% 2.9% -19.0 -117 26


And here are the average wins for all of the various placings in the three divisions.

AL East APW
1 100
2 92
3 87
4 79
5 70
AL Central
1 86
2 82
3 78
4 75
5 70
AL West
1 89
2 84
3 79
4 73
Wild Card 94


And here's the AL version of the aggregated divisional title pie charts.



I'll run through the divisions and teams briefly.

AL East

Yankees

Average Projected Wins: 96
Division Title Percentage: 40.7%
Wild Card Percentage: 22.3%
Playoff Percentage: 63.0%

Yes, the Yankees again look like the best team in basesball on paper, although they are expected to return back towards the pack a bit. They carry the same risks they usually do, namely their continued reliance on players in their mid 30s and their ability to both stay healthy and be productive, but that's generally worked out pretty well most of the time. It'll be interesting to see how Javier Vazquez does returning to the American League, because his projections are all pretty bullish and he could effectively be the difference between the division title or fighting for the wild card. Because of his injury history, I only gave Nick Johnson about 420 PAs in my simulations. If DHing keeps him healthier and he can exceed that, he'll help the Yankee offense quite a lot by not making outs.

Red Sox

Average Projected Wins: 93
Division Title Percentage: 30.3%
Wild Card Percentage: 22.7%
Playoff Percentage: 53.0%

Boston looks good again, although a lot of their offseason was focused on improving the team's defense. While we try to account for the impact of defense in our projections, it's not as easy to do as it may be to assess the impact of offense and pitching. Boston could be anywhere from 5-10 wins better defensively than they were in 2009. Their biggest question marks are probably on offense. They could still use a productive David Ortiz, who may or may no longer exist.

Rays

Average Projected Wins: 91
Division Title Percentage: 25.4%
Wild Card Percentage: 20.7%
Playoff Percentage: 46.2%

As much as Boston improved defensively, Tampa Bay may have the best defense in baseball. It's probably either them or Seattle anyway. While they got better than expected seasons out of Ben Zobrist and Jason Bartlett, they also got worse than expected seasons out of a lot of key players like Scott Kazmir, Dioner Navarro, B.J. Upton, Pat Burrell and Andy Sonnanstine to name a few. If Jeff Niemann can build on his solid 2009 and David Price can take a step forward they'll have one of the better rotations in baseball. Their division is going to make it tough, but there's no reason they can't hang in there all year.

Orioles

Average Projected Wins: 75
Division Title Percentage: 3.0%
Wild Card Percentage: 5.3%
Playoff Percentage: 8.2%

The Orioles are starting to show the fruits of a renewed dedication to their farm system with Brian Matusz joining the rotation and Chris Tillman lurking. With Matt Wieters, Adam Jones, Nick Markakis and Nolan Reimold as young offensive players still 25 or younger, they have a chance to build a pretty good offense as well, but getting into contention in the AL East won't be easy, at least probably not in 2010.

Blue Jays

Average Projected Wins: 65
Division Title Percentage: 0.7%
Wild Card Percentage: 1.2%
Playoff Percentage: 1.8%

At least they have Roy Halladay. Oh, wait. It's not going to be a pretty season for the Blue Jays, I don't think, although they seemingly are always able to produce league average pitching from unexpected places, which they're going to need to do again if they want to avoid 100 losses.

AL Central

Twins

Average Projected Wins: 83
Division Title Percentage: 31.0%
Wild Card Percentage: 3.8%
Playoff Percentage: 34.8%

Losing Joe Nathan hurts, but they've got a lot of good arms in the bullpen so they should be able to cobble something together. They've got Denard Span, Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel as a solid offensive core and a decent if unspectacular rotation that should keep them in games. If the reports out of winter league were true and Francisco Liriano has regained his stuff after struggling coming back from Tommy John surgery the last couple of years, they could have an ace in the making.

Indians

Average Projected Wins: 80
Division Title Percentage: 22.2%
Wild Card Percentage: 3.2%
Playoff Percentage: 25.4%

Getting Grady Sizemore and Jake Westbrook back should help. Adding Russ Branyan could also eventually help if he can come back from a herniated disk in his back, but I am a little surprised that they project to be around .500.

White Sox

Average Projected Wins: 80
Division Title Percentage: 21.4%
Wild Card Percentage: 3.4%
Playoff Percentage: 24.7%

CAIRO actually thinks the White Sox are the best team in the AL Central, by a hair over the Twins. The other systems are less sanguine. They've got the makings of a very good rotation if they can keep Jake Peavy healthy and with Daniel Hudson around should Freddy Garcia falter. While the offense looks a little shaky, if Alexis Rios hits to his projections that'll be a decent upgrade over what they got out of CF last year and having Gordon Beckham for a full season should also be an upgrade over last year.

Tigers

Average Projected Wins: 78
Division Title Percentage: 17.2%
Wild Card Percentage: 2.7%
Playoff Percentage: 20.0%

The Tigers rotation looks a little suspect to me after Justin Verlander and Rick Porcello. Adding Johnny Damon will help the offense a little although it remains to be seen how he will adjust to life away from DNYS (Disgraceful New Yankee Stadium). They've got Austin Jackson penciled in to start in CF and lead off. While he's still young and very toolsy and someone I think will eventually be a solid major leaguer, he doesn't project well right now so a lot hinges on how he adjusts to the majors.

Royals

Average Projected Wins: 72
Division Title Percentage: 8.2%
Wild Card Percentage: 1.1%
Playoff Percentage: 9.3%

Any team that has Yuniesky Betancourt, Jose Guillen and Kyle Farnsworth has to be considered a contender for 100 losses.

AL West

Rangers

Average Projected Wins: 84
Division Title Percentage: 35.2%
Wild Card Percentage: 3.7%
Playoff Percentage: 38.9%

In the most tightly bunched division in baseball, the Rangers rate as slight favorites. Their projections may be a little pessimistic since I limited Rich Harden to around 120 innings. If Vladimir Guerrero can stay healthy he could rebound nicely in Arlington, and they look to have a solid defense and some very interesting young pitching with Neftali Feliz and Derek Holland around.

Mariners

Average Projected Wins: 81
Division Title Percentage: 25.6%
Wild Card Percentage: 3.8%
Playoff Percentage: 29.4%

The Mariners may have the best defense in baseball, although it's hard to imagine them improving on last year's. Adding Cliff Lee is a big boost obviously, although he's not starting the year with the team thanks to an abdominal injury which may linger a bit. I've got Erik Bedard penciled in for about two months of starts, if he can make more than that he should help them exceed these projections. Conversely if he can't then they'll probably be a bit worse.

Athletics

Average Projected Wins: 79
Division Title Percentage: 20.5%
Wild Card Percentage: 3.3%
Playoff Percentage: 23.7%

Without knowing how much they'll get out of Ben Sheets and Justin Duscherer it's tough to know how good the A's might be. I gave Sheets about 25 starts on average and Duscherer 15. They have some depth in the rotation beyond the starting five, but it's still a downgrade if they have to use it. They've got a good defense and a pretty good bullpen as well, but the offense is a little lackluster so scoring runs may be a problem. Still, at an average projection of 79 wins, they're in the mix for the division if the other teams' projections are close.

Angels

Average Projected Wins: 78
Division Title Percentage: 18.7%
Wild Card Percentage: 2.9%
Playoff Percentage: 21.6%

Are the Angels really 19 games worse than they were in 2009? I guess it depends on if you think they were actually a 97 win team in 2009 and how much losing Chone Figgins, John Lackey and Darren Oliver hurts. CAIRO actually has them favored in the West, although it's got the whole division projected to be within three games of each other so I'm not sure how meaningful that is. Having Scott Kazmir for a full season should help, and Hideki Matsui should be a solid DH although he has had health issues for most of the last few years. Really though, a lot hinges on how much Brandon Wood can contribute as the primary 3B and how much of his 2009 value Kendry Morales can hold onto. If Ervin Santana can get back to where he was in 2008 that would also be a big help. Again, like with Oakland, at a projection of 78 wins in the AL West, they should at the very least be in the mix for the division.

Anyone that wants to play around with the raw data from the Diamond Mind simulations can download it here.

And that's your 2010 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout. Results are NOT guaranteed.

On an unrelated note, if you are interested in helping out one of the best saberists around, Tangotiger is running community playing time forecast project and is looking for input from any fans who want to contribute. You can access the survey at this link:

http://www.tangotiger.net/survey/.
--Posted at 5:14 pm by SG / 84 Comments | - (0)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

It’s completely insane that there are 3 teams in the entire MLB that project to be able to win over 100 games and they’re all in the AL East. Sucks to be Baltimore and Toronto.

“Still, at an average projection of 79 wins, they’re in the mix for the division”

I hate the AL East.

Wow, those are some fantastic pie charts.  My compliments to the chef.  I didn’t even have to bother with all those words and numbers.

In other fun facts, the winner of the AL east is expected to have 100 wins, while the other AL divisions can’t break 90 (and the NL barely does).

[4] To make matters worse, the 3rd place team in the AL East expects more wins (87) than the winners of the AL Central (86).  It’s not hard to make a case for a new format—maybe just shift to a balanced schedule and have the top 4 teams from each league qualify.

Anything that would put an end to the 18 tedious regular season games with the RS would be fine with me.

[6] agreed, unbalanced schedule sucks. While we’re out of it, let’s lose the divisions too.

[7] Who’s out of it?

Hey Ryan Garko was put on waivers by the M’s.  He’s 29 and in his last 3 seasons he’s gone .311/.391./.491 against lefties (278/350/437 overall).  He’s a natural 1st baseman but has spent some time in the OF.  Instead of Thames?

[9]Upon further review, “some time in the OF” is 12 games.  But I wonder how much worse he can be than Thames out there.

Boston could be anywhere from 5-10 wins better defensively than they were in 2009.

That can’t be right can it?  At least the 10 wins part.  I seem to recall a discusson on The Book Blog and 100 runs is usually the difference between the best and worst defenses in each league, and I don’t think Boston made that kind of jump.  5 wins makes some sense, but feels more like an upper-bounds than a lower.

[9 & 10] Sure, I doubt he can be worse than Thames, and offensively he should be better.  I’d certainly feel more comfortable giving him 400PA’s as a DH/backup 1B if Johnson missed most of the season w/ injuries.  I’m sure Cashman will talk to Garko (or his agent).  A lot of it will come down to if Garko is comfortable being a bench player only expecting to get 200PA’s or so, or if he wants a chance to compete for a starting job somewhere.

[11] Considering that Boston was like, almost the worst defensive team last year (28th in defensive efficiency) and figures to be among the best this year, and 100 runs equates to about 10 wins, that ballpark seems fine to me. It may not be 10 wins, but make it 8 wins as the upper limit if you want to.

Somewhat rhetorical question -

In a bizarro universe where fanbase, ownership and management of yankess remained the same but they were in the AL west, how many wins would we be currently projecting for the yankees?

If we are in the AL west there is no business sense in acquiring tex for example.  I say thank god we are in the AL East as otherwise we would have a worse team with higher chance of making playoffs and higher profits for owners.

Am I wrong?

[13] IDK, you think the Yankees still wouldn’t want to get the best players in order to compete for best record in the league?  Or have the best team, “on paper”, heading into the playoffs?  I think they would.  Also, it’s not like the Angels haven’t been cranking out 90+ win seasons, and they probably have the money to compete w/ the Yankees for players as well.  Finally, I think part of the reason that the teams are all bunched together around 80 wins is because with the unbalanced schedule, they play each other so many times.  If you were to swap Texas and KC for example, Texas would probably gain 2-3 wins, and the other teams in the West would gain 3 or 4.

[12] By UZR anyway (why UZR?  Because I can easily get a listing of teams, that’s why,) The spread between best and worst is a little more than 100 runs, looks more like ~130.  And Boston *did* lose about 6 wins in defense between 2008 and 2009, so you can certainly change by more than 5 wins in one year.

However, to be 10 wins better, they’d have to be as good as last year’s M’s.  To be even 8 wins better, they’d need to be as good as last year’s Rays.  Just doesn’t seem that Boston has improved by *that* much.  At the very least, I’m not hearing anyone say they are as good as the Rays or M’s.  Perhaps at this point we’re quibbling over a few wins, but it’s either that, or quibble over whether Garko adds .5 wins over Thames, or .75, so…

Garko adds .5 wins over Thame

I say do it. A somewhat rebounded Garko also has some trade value.

Here’s something to talk about:

http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/yankees/posada_won_give_up_squat_without_SQ7RvUD0tsmfFKeqEJI6HO

Is it possible that in addition to having counting numbers that put him in the conversation, Posada is making a HOF case by playing C into his twilight years? As Sherman notes, you can count the number of catchers who’ve maintained their productivity at those ages on one hand, and hang a few fingers left over to do with what you please.

The longevity (despite getting a late start), the counting numbers/slash line, and the championships spell HOF for Posada, if you ask me. He’s actually my favorite current generation Yankee.

[16] Speaking of upgrades over Thames, what is going on with Elijah Dukes?  He can certainly play all 3 OF positions (in a pinch) and could even start in left relegating Mr. Gardner to a more befitting 4th OF position.

I can’t imagine what he did that was so awful that he doesn’t have a job.  He should be a 2 win player pretty easily, no?

Either way, I’d be okay with Garko, but Thames can at least fake the outfield.  The first few times I saw him he looked awful, but he’s looked a little better at the plate as of late.  For the 25th player on the team, I’m not that worried about it.

[17] During the off-season when I’m bored, I usually play a little game and try to figure out what the HOF chances are for current Yankees.  The WAR rankings at BaseballProjection are a great help for that.  I currently figure Posada is about 50/50 for getting into the HOF.  If you look at his rallyWAR (44.3, 228th among position players), he’s in a range where a few players get in, but most are either VC appointments, or Jim Rice.  So if he retired today, there would be an argument for him getting in.  Weak argument, but an argument.  Of course, he’s got a few more years to build up his case.  But we don’t know what he’ll do, and it could end up being little.

Also another way to look at it, every catcher who has BOTH 2000 hits and 300 HR is in.  Both this figures are attainable for him, though he’ll need more than 2 years to do it.

[18] IDK, Dukes has 3 years in the majors (all partials), and he’s got two bad and one pretty good.  Though he’s 10 months younger than Gardner, their baseball ages are the same, and Gardner’s 2 years he’s actually acquired more (FanGraphs) value than Dukes’s 3 years.  Dukes probably has more upside, but I’d feel more confident about what Gardner will give the team.  I would guess there are major concerns about his attitude, work ethic, etc.

Garko vs. Thames…Garko still has some upside, as it is possible he hasn’t peaked yet (some recent research by MGL indicates modern players may peak closer to 29 than 27), and probably even if he has he’ll stay at that peak for a few years.  He’s also got a career wRC+ of 113, including 107 and 105 each of the last two years (107 was last year).  All the FanGraphs projections have him between 105 and 112.

Thames is 33, and definitely on the downslope.  His career wRC+ is 104, including 106 and 100 the last two years.  The projections have him between 97 and 106.  Though he may have more experience as an OF, Pena at this point is likely as good as either Garko or Thames, and for the 5th OF they won’t see much time out there anyway.  So Garko makes a lot more sense, from the standpoint of getting a bat who is likely to produce.

I doubt that either would play the OF much, so Garko seems like a more attractive options.

But Marcus Thames hit a HR off Randy Johnson in his first ML at bat!  His first ML at bat!  Randy Johnson! Bleat bleat bleat!

[21]  I suppose I overlooked Winn.  Defensively, it shouldn’t matter what Thames and Garko can do since the only time they’d be playing (under normal circumstances) is in an NL game or an extra innings game.

Speaking of options, Garko appears to have options (plural) remaining, so it is interesting that he was waived and not sent to AAA.

[23] I think having a decent righty bat (which they both are) would be an important insurance policy for a Nick Johnson injury. Miranda-Thames/Garko would be an acceptable DH platoon.

Speaking of options, Garko appears to have options (plural) remaining, so it is interesting that he was waived and not sent to AAA.

Another good reason to want to sign him…I read somewhere (FanGraphs probably) that it may have been a cost-concern, somehow.

[25] Or maybe it’s a red flag?

There also may have been a handshake deal saying “if you aren’t going to make the major league team out of camp, we will put you on waivers”.

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2010/3/30/1397814/so-lets-clear-up-this-waiving

Good summary.

Actually, here is an update to a post on USS Mariner:

Update: It turns out we were all wrong assuming the M’s could just option Garko to Tacoma. I’ve been told that there’s a rule that requires any player to pass through waivers before he can be optioned after the 3 year anniversary of his major league debut. Since Garko debuted on September 18, 2005, he fits the criteria. Even though he has an option left, the M’s were still required to put him on waivers before they could send him down.

So, someone just accidentally hit ‘reply all’ to a DC-wide area alumni jobs/resume list I’m on. They attached two resumes of applicants they thought would work well for a position presented on the e-mail list. Oops!

Oh, and both resumes are terrible. One is 6 pages long, the other is less than half a page.

[15] As far as UZR is concerned, I don’t know if I necessarily buy their contention that Boston was -16.8 as a team, and more importantly, a better defensive team than Yankees, albeit marginally. That runs wildly against the simple BP metric: Balls in play that are converted to outs (or the defensive efficiency). I find that metric more believable, to be honest. Given that, the only way that Yankees grade lower than Red Sox is if their fielders saw a lot more difficult chances, or the quality of batted balls their contingent of however many aces gave up was inferior to the Yankees. Looking at fangraphs own data, I see that the ERA-FIP difference for the Red Sox was 0.21, and for Yankees it was -0.04. So the Red Sox pitchers were indeed harmed by crappy defense, whereas the Yankee pitchers almost evened out.

I would pull the Red Sox defense last year another ten runs down from fangraphs numbers, so that kind of adds another win to whatever upgrade they are going to get this year.

As far as their improvements go, Cameron and Beltre are indeed standout defenders, and Scutaro is pretty good as well. Whether that amounts to 5, 7, or 10 extra wins, I am not sure (standard errors!), but they do stand to gain substantially this year on defense.

[29] Same reason that Fuse can’t simply be optioned after April 26 and Chamber Ream can’t be optioned after August 7.  In hindsight, I guess it also explains why there was never any talk of sending Cano down during his craptacular 2008 campaign.

[32] I thought I’d read in several places that DER was widely regarded as teh suck.  Anybody else?

[32] Boston’s xFIP was also .17 *worse* than it’s FIP, and Yankees xFIP was .09 better.  So using those metrics, Yankees were a little unlucky with HR and Boston was a little lucky.  It *could* also mean the Yankees were hurt a little by their defense, and Boston was hurt a little less, which I believe lines up nicely with UZR.

I haven’t heard many people reference DER recently, so I’m not read up on it.  Does it adjust for park?  (Supposedly) UZR isn’t going to deduct balls off the Monster as “missed” plays for the fielders, but I suspect DER will count it as a BIP (not converted into an out) which would lower the DER for Boston, even though the fielders had no chance.

Perhaps SG has the numbers he used to come up with it?  I’m not trying to be accusatory, but that would certainly settle the debate - or at least change it around to, “why did you use X instead of Y?”

From Lohud:

UPDATE, 2:15 p.m.: Since that two-out, two-run stretch in the first inning, Phil Hughes has retired 10 of the past 11 Twins. He’s struck out five through four innings. I really think he can be a very good pitcher in the major leagues, and I think we’ll see it happen this year.

Anyone watching the game?  Do you feel as confident as Jennings sounds?

[34] I remember reading that too. At the very least, it needs to be corrected for GB/FB tendencies of the staff.

I thought I’d read in several places that DER was widely regarded as teh suck.  Anybody else?

I do believe DER - along with BP’s FRAR and FRAA - is teh suck.

Do you feel as confident as Jennings sounds?

Hughes has looked pretty good…he’s had a few ridiculously well-placed fastballs.

he’s had a few ridiculously well-placed fastballs

Sounds good…has he…

combined that with any falling-off-the-table changes?

added in any knee-buckling curves?

fired any bat-shattering cutters?

Not mocking, just enthusiastic!

he’s had a few ridiculously well-placed fastballs

Sounds good…has he…

combined that with any falling-off-the-table changes?

added in any knee-buckling curves?

fired any bat-shattering cutters?

Not mocking, just enthusiastic!

His most amazing feat today was getting Denard Span to foul off a pitch that actually hit one of Span’s relatives sitting in the stands near the dugout, who then had to leave the stadium (under her own power, thankfully).

[40] There’s a scene in one of my favorite novels, John M. Ford’s _The Last Hot Time_, where a Cesare Borgia figure tells the main character that if he doesn’t accept a job offer he’ll be sorry - not because the boss will do anything to him, it will just happen.  Well, probably one needs to read it.  Anyway, I’m thinking about Hughes going over to the opponents’ dugout and saying, If you swing the bat against me, you’ll be sorry.

Other interesting occurrences in the game: 5’3” second baseman playing for the Twins.

Other interesting occurrences in the game: 5’3” second baseman playing for the Twins.

When did the Sox trade the elf?

Juan Miranda having a nice afternoon, to put it mildly.

Also, how did Joba look in his inning? If anyone is still watching.

His most amazing feat today was getting Denard Span to foul off a pitch that actually hit one of Span’s relatives sitting in the stands near the dugout, who then had to leave the stadium (under her own power, thankfully).

I read that…his mother apparently.

Well, probably one needs to read it.

I’ve never read it, but I laughed at the picture.  Hughes doesn’t seem the type to do that.  Randy Johnson, HE would have done something like that.

5’3” second baseman

I was a 5’3” second baseman once, but not since the late 80’s.

[40] The relative Span’s foul ball hit was his mother. What were the odds?

[45] I should have hit refresh before submit.

Remember that the Green Monster screws up Boston’s defensive efficiency (balls in play converted into outs) if you don’t account for it.  Balls high off the wall would be considered in play, but are not playable. 

Foul ground can also skew a team’s defensive efficiency.  Oakland has the most foul ground in the majors (I think) and is almost always near the top in raw defensive efficiency, because balls converted into outs in foul territory boost the outs total, but if those plays aren’t made it doesn’t hurt their hits allowed.

I think in DNYS the high HR rate meant fewer playable fly balls as well, which likely made the Yankees defensive efficiency look worse than it would have been if we assume some of those fly balls should have been easy fly outs.

I thought I’d read in several places that DER was widely regarded as teh suck.  Anybody else?

I don’t care for it as a pure defensive analysis tool, but if you use it with the understanding that it reflects both the types of batted balls the pitching staff allows (eg: high fly ball staff = lower BABIP)and the defense behind them, and account for the park factors that may skew it, it’s fine as an overall look at how a team’s run prevention as a whole functioned I think.

Ledger_Yankees Girardi: Hughes first start April 15. Until then, Will stay on active roster, but pitch extended spring games April 5 and 10. #nyy

Why the hell would NYT interview Yankee bloggers and exclude you? I mean, they went with RAB, Bronx Banter, and freaking WasWatching.

rilke, did I ever ask you if you’d read the Radetzky March?  Maybe I did ask.  I forget things.

Why the hell would NYT interview Yankee bloggers and exclude you? I mean, they went with RAB, Bronx Banter, and freaking WasWatching.

I think the choice of bloggers was determined by the quality of the comments. Diss intended, or maybe it’s a compliment!

[51] No kidding, I know Lombardi gives “a different perspective” but he can’t really be taken seriously can he? It’s almost like the NYT is trying to do this: http://5z8.info/REFINANCE-NOW_h2i1y_openme.exe

the html shady but it’s a legit site run through this: http://www.shadyurl.com.

[54] I really need to consistently remember how to do hyperlinking, just never can.

The relative Span’s foul ball hit was his mother.

If you read this out of context (as I did) and instinctively assume that the capitalization and apostrophes are errors (as I did, having spent the afternoon grading papers), the sentence is humorous in an absurdist way.

the html shady but it’s a legit site run through this: http://www.shadyurl.com.

What a great site. tinyurl-esque things always annoy me; I like seeing the address of what I’m clicking on.

Why the hell would NYT interview Yankee bloggers and exclude you? I mean, they went with RAB, Bronx Banter, and freaking WasWatching.

Eh, this blog is kind of niche and I’m guessing the fact that I don’t use my name kind of keeps the exposure down.  Then again, I don’t really think I want too many mainstream Yankee fans finding this site anyway.

BP’s FRAR and FRAA

Well, that’s a whole ‘nuther level of teh suck right there.

The relative Span’s foul ball hit was his mother. What were the odds?

Much better odds of it hitting Keith Olberman’s mom.  Or maybe not so much anymore.

What, too soon?

Will stay on active roster, but pitch extended spring games April 5 and 10.

The extended ST work makes sense, but why keep him on the active roster?  Ten days or so won’t affect his service time and you could have an extra arm in the bullpen or bat on the bench for the first eight games.

[51] I’ve been sort of meaning to, but reading it in German would mean finding a copy first off and then looking up a bunch of old-fashioned terms I’ve forgotten, and reading it in translation would be intellectually lazy.  Maybe I’ll give it a shot anyway.

[58] Good point. I post here because the community is small, and intellectually rigorous. The nerdyness, snark and general community feeling really separates it from a more popular site like RAB. I like RAB, they do a really good job, but it’s no RLYW. I learn a lot here, which is awesome, and SG is basically batman for the Yankees internet community.

Also, our game chats are a thing of beauty.

[60] Well, I read it in English, as learning German struck me as too intellectually active.  It seems like something you’d like.

I have been thinking about starting a parody waswatching site, but I’m just too damn lazy.  Why not just imagine how funny it would be, and save e the effort?

[63] Oh please do it Fgas. Please Please. I’ll get my mondesei together and try to write some funny matt lawton.

[63] Can’t you just read waswatching?

[61] Clay.. Completely agree. I would capitalise Batman.
Of course I can’t spell misssspell.

Maybe it’s the Error 500?

Hey Vill. Have you made your way over to rrlywl yet?
Your ticket is purchased. Of course it’s going to rain but whatevs.

I’m not on FB, so ... I have to wait until I come across a friend and lurk with his/her account.

I know I must be missing out on a lot of quality snark and inanities.

Trust me Vill. It ain’t as good as it is here during a heated game chatter.

[32] Boston’s xFIP was also .17 *worse* than it’s FIP, and Yankees xFIP was .09 better.  So using those metrics, Yankees were a little unlucky with HR and Boston was a little lucky. It *could* also mean the Yankees were hurt a little by their defense, and Boston was hurt a little less, which I believe lines up nicely with UZR.

Yeah, but all that would tell you is that how you would expect the pitchers to perform going forward, assuming league average fielding, and not how they performed actually. Unless all those extra HRs that Boston pitchers did not give up were due to circus catches made by J. D. Drew (which would increase their abysmal DER, by the way), I don’t see how invoking xFIP making your point here in any way, shape, or form.

The other points about DER are well taken, including SG’s take on this one which I think is balanced. Green Monster aside, I do believe it is a pretty handy tool for team defense. And it is not like Red Sox have ranked poorly by that metric when they have actually played defense well. They ranked 5 in 2008, 2 in 2007. They ranked poorly before 2007, but they didn’t have particularly good defensive teams back then. This is also more objective than the subjective division of zone by UZR people, and subjective rating of whether a particular chance was deemed difficult or not. I don’t have zone rating numbers handy, so can’t comment on that, but it does seem like Boston was among the worst last year in fielding.

[61] conveniently ignores the contributions of the complaint threads.

[72] Had to give you something to complain about.

[62] Ok, I’ll give it a shot when I find a better deal than the $17 plus shipping on amazon for a used copy.

Yeah, but all that would tell you is that how you would expect the pitchers to perform going forward, assuming league average fielding, and not how they performed actually.

I’m not sure why using FIP-ERA is a good proxy for fielding, but xFIP-ERA isn’t.  xFIP can explain a higher (or lower) ERA than FIP by normalizing for HR; if a team lets up more (or less) HR than expected, that can explain why the FIP is more/less than ERA.  The idea of it being predictive going forward is because it (theoretically) gives a better picture of the pitcher’s true-talent.

They ranked poorly before 2007, but they didn’t have particularly good defensive teams back then.

2006 UZR is below average (~-13), 2005 UZR about average (~5), 2004 second worst in the majors (~-34).  It seems for the most part UZR and DER are in general agreement.  Where are you getting the DER from BTW?  I don’t doubt your numbers, but I’d just like to look at them too.  I’d be curious if other things like LD% could help explain the difference between DER/UZR.

I’m not sure why using FIP-ERA is a good proxy for fielding, but xFIP-ERA isn’t.  xFIP can explain a higher (or lower) ERA than FIP by normalizing for HR; if a team lets up more (or less) HR than expected, that can explain why the FIP is more/less than ERA.

That is because FIP is based on data that was achieved by the pitcher, whereas xFIP is not. For instance, the reason why Jarrod Washburn had a very low ERA but not a good FIP in 2009 when with Mariners was because of Mariner’s fielding, their ballpark and other factors. So when he went to another ballpark that suppressed HRs, but did not have as good OFers, his ERA numbers predictably suffered. That is why ERA-FIP is informative about fielding, while ERA-xFIP, while being informative about fielding, has the additional confounding factor of HR luck that is not based on fielding.

[76] I dunno, I think you are overstating the effects of having a good ERA/bad FIP.  I do not believe that any of the saberists who do a lot of work with FIP would claim that bad-FIP/good ERA is a proxy for a good defense.  For one, batted-ball distribution may have something to do with it.  E.g. why Wang often out-performed his FIP, even though he didn’t have a good defense.  Also, luck can have a lot to do with it, which is why over time FIP and ERA often - though not always - converge.

[77] Probably, but it was a quick and dirty comparison to do some check to see if the fangraphs number passed the smell test. I do believe that the Yankees were a better defensive team than the Red Sox last year.

Damn you MC for beating me to the KO’s mom joke!

I do believe that the Yankees were a better defensive team than the Red Sox last year.

John Kruk doesn’t.

I don’t really think I want too many mainstream Yankee fans finding this site anyway.

And for those who find their way through the gates, they will leave utterly confused as to what a “Fuse Chamber Ream” is.

I do believe that the Yankees were a better defensive team than the Red Sox last year.

1) The difference is 2.2 runs, which is well within the error margin.  Especially as the Yankees had 121 more fielding-innings (about 2 games) more than the Sox.  If the Sox had scored 2 runs more than the Yankees, but had ~60 more PA, and you said you thought the Yankees offense was better than the Sox offense, it’d be very reasonable, and *not* contradicting the stats.  It wouldn’t be *supported* by the stats, but we’d have enough of a gray area that it is arguable.

2) UZR famously doesn’t include catcher defense (yet; I understand FanGraphs is looking to add catcher defense for this coming year).  Using the numbers from rallyWAR - not sure if SG published numbers for RS catchers and want to use same system for both teams - Yankees were 15 runs better than the Sox at catcher (+2 to -13).  So a 2 run defecit by UZR is now a 13 run lead by the Yankees.

Regardless, I think what UZR says is NOT that the Sox defense was better than the Yankees.  It says they were both about the same.  I.e. if you were to give letter grades instead of absolute values, they would both be C-.

[41]
Props, Rilke.

[58]
You mean… “SG” isn’t your real name?

[59]Much better odds of it hitting Keith Olberman’s mom.
Or of hitting the wife of the Philadelphia Inquirer’s sports section with foul balls twice in the course of a single AB.

sports section = editor, I think, thereof.

Although I now think I may prefer it the way I originally wrote it.

And for those who find their way through the gates, they will leave utterly confused as to what a “Fuse Chamber Ream” is.

Alternatively, there will be disappointed female (and some male) fans when there aren’t actually any naked pictures of Phil Hughes here.

Page 1 of 1 pages:

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Athletics (88-74) @ Royals (89-73), Tuesday, September 30, 2014, 8:07 pm
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TGS NY: Yankees prep Brian Cashman deal
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Yankees.com: Jeter fittingly goes out a winner in final game
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Yankees (83-78) @ Red Sox (71-90), Sunday, September 28, 2014, 1:35pm
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Yankees (82-77) @ Red Sox (70-89), Friday, September 26, 2014, 7:10pm
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USA Today: Derek Jeter’s unbelievable closing act at Yankee Stadium
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