The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Friday, January 25, 2013

TGS NY: Countdown: 18 days to Spring Training

HOMERS HAVE LEFT TOWN: Nick Swisher (24), Russell Martin (21), Raul Ibanez (19), Eric Chavez (16) and Andruw Jones (14) have taken their 94 homers elsewhere. Alex Rodriguez (18) may not return in 2013 and, even if he does, who knows what kind of power he will have approaching his 38th birthday.

Losing all these power hitters given their home stadium seems like a serious problem.

Yankee HRs in DNYS: 138
Opponent HRs in DNYS: 94
Yankee HRs on road: 107
Opponent HRs on road: 96

I don’t buy the nonsense about the Yankees being too home run reliant and needing to ‘diversify’ their offense, whatever the hell that means.  They’re pretty clearly going to be a worse offensive team this year barring a surprise acquisition or two.  They scored 804 runs this year and right now I have them projected to score around 780 in 2013.

Hopefully their pitching staff will be able to make up for that.

--Posted at 8:55 am by SG / 26 Comments | - (0)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

804 in 2012 and 780 in 2013?
I will take the under

They scored 804 runs this year and right now I have them projected to score around 780 in 2013.

Where does 780 put them, assuming you have projected RS for all teams?  Last year their 804 was 2nd.  If they had scored 780 runs it would have made them…2nd.  Also, where do you have them for pitching/defense?  I imagine the defense should be the same, or even a bit better b/c of Gardner’s return.  Noting that we aren’t going to try to measure Martin’s influence on pitch-framing.  Pitching should be similar, maybe a bit better w/ full-season Pettitte, Nova should recover some, and/or Phelps (both better than Garcia).

Basically, Yankees were +134 runs last year, which is 13-14 wins above .500.  And they finished 14 wins above .500.  if they lose 24 runs on offense and stay the same on pitching/defense, that’s +11 wins, or 92 wins.  That should be in contention up to the last week of the season, and honestly can you expect more than that?

Now, everyone - well most everyone - will want to jump up and tell me all the things that *could* go wrong - older pitching staff could break down, lots of players over 30 could break down via injury (Jeter, Youkilis, ARod) or further decline (Ichiro, Teix, Granderson), etc.  How’s that different from ANY other season?

Where does 780 put them, assuming you have projected RS for all teams?  Last year their 804 was 2nd.

I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but I think I have Detroit, Toronto, Texas and Boston ahead of them.

Also, where do you have them for pitching/defense?

Not sure.  We’re probably due for another early and slightly less useless set of projected standings.

It screws up the Pythag, for one thing.  On the other, someone else gets those ABs and they’re likely to produce at least SOME number of HRs… how many HRS is the team actually likely to lose, then?

How’s that different from ANY other season?

All the other seasons have already happened - and, therefore, lack this potential downside?

[3] Boston blows up the roster and stitches it back together in just a few months, and projects ahead of us ? Frack !

Also, how far back is the O’s projection ? ‘cause Buck will beat it by 10%. We could already be sitting on fourth place, with Tampa about to stomp on us.

Boston blows up the roster and stitches it back together in just a few months, and projects ahead of us ? Frack !

Just on offense, though. Their pitching remains a bit of a mess.

[3] Okay thanks.  I’d imagine that even if they’re 5th, it will still be fairly close to first.  Less than 30 runs anyway.

[4] Well, true that there is usually complaining near this level most Januarys.  But I’m going to continue to fight the good fight…

[5] That is kind of surprising, but I imagine that the Yankees pitching projects to be significantly better than theirs. So the Yankees are probably a better overall team even with a lesser offense.

[9] I imagine getting full, healthy seasons of Ellsbury, Middlebrooks, and Ortiz would go a long way towards improving the Boston offense.  Also, if you want question marks, Napoli I would think would be a huge one since he has a degenerative hip condition.

[10] It’s asymptomatic so far though. It’s a risk but not one that should donwgrade our expectations until it begins to actually manifest itself.

My prediction is that Middlebrooks will backslide to some degree.  Pitchers were finding holes in his swing before he got hurt.  Maybe he’ll adjust.

[11] True, but his performance dropped last year.  ARod they’re saying the problem was asymptomatic until it wasn’t.  You’re right we shouldn’t downgrade our expectations.  But like several Yankees, it’s a question mark.  It seems right now for most people, the Boston (and other teams) questions marks will resolve themselves positively, while the Yankees will resolve negatively.  Perhaps I’m being harsh, but..

[12] I agree, but another 300PA of him even if he regresses some is probably still an upgrade for Boston.

Bad news, guys.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/free-agent-pitcher-carl-pavano-sidelined-six-to-eight-weeks-with-ruptured-spleen-012413

American Idle idled again!

[15] “The injury occurred when Pavano slipped and fell while shoveling snow on his driveway in Vermont, one source said.”

I’m not sure whether to laugh at the guy or feel bad for him.

[17] Can’t we do both?

I know a lot of Yankee fans are mad at him, but obviously, this guy gets hurt just by waking up in the morning.

How can you laugh at the 2007 opening day starter?

I bet the first sympathy tweet was from Nick Johnson.

Who was it here that predicted Nick Johnson would get MVP votes when we re-signed him a couple years ago? Come on man, fess up.

[3] Boston blows up the roster and stitches it back together in just a few months, and projects ahead of us ? Frack !

Disgraceful bandbox effect.

Also, how far back is the O’s projection ?

I’ve got them around 77 wins as of a few days ago.  Toronto’s still around 90, Yankees were around 87, Rays around 86, Red Sox around 84 I think.

From Draft Dodger Rag by Phil Ochs

Sarge, I’m only eighteen, I got a ruptured spleen

Great Dumb and Dumber reference:

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/eye-on-baseball/21613543/cashman-a-rod-could-miss-the-entire-2013-season

21. I think I said something along the lines of, “if he hits 30 homers with his walks, he could be an MVP candidate.” I was thinking David Ortiz, circa. ‘03, which was completely insane, of course. It was kind of tongue in cheek, in actuality. The thread after the Yankees signed him was pretty much a battleground. I hated the signing and couldn’t believe they just didn’t reup Matsui for another year. The MVP comment was kind of a peace offering a few weeks later, because that thread did get a little nasty. I thought he was going to pop a hamstring while running out a double, but I think a hand injury got him. Nick just couldn’t stay healthy, and healed very slowly. Great hitting skills, no health.


19. HA! With an April rotation featuring Carl Pavano and Kei Igawa, the Yanks are sure to get off to a fast start in 2007!

this guy gets hurt just by waking up in the morning.

Yeah, so do I.  Welcome to adulthood.

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