Excelsior. Close loses. Kuroda pitched well. It’ll be fine.

Not worried

How does the not worrying match with the fact that the Yankees stink and are on the verge of collapse?

worried because this team is too old and fragile

[3] It just means that the Yankees will sneak into the playoffs only to be swept by the Angels.

[3] This is ridiculous. The Yankees are NOT on the verge of collapse.

The collapse has already started, therefore they are in the process of collapsing.

[4] Stop worrying. They have dealt with the “old and fragile” aspect of the team by bringing in new blood such as Ichiro, Ibanez, Jones, Branyan and Cust.

RE: SG’s comment on the game thread post about Lester…

He has been unlucky due to the high BABIP, increased HR/FB %, and decreased strand rate (and his velocity is the same).  However, he is getting less swinging strikes and allowing more contact in general (thus, striking out less).  Could the decrease in swinging strikes/increase in contact indicate his “stuff” has gotten a little worse?  That is, would it at least partially explain the increased BABIP, LD%, and HR/FB%?  It seems to me that if his stuff is a little worse or he’s not quite hitting his spots, it could somewhat explain his down year.

[4] I’ve been frequenting this site for about 8 years now.  For about 8 years now, a regular lament is that the Yankees are too old, don’t have enough depth (especially in pitching), and that they’ll be lucky to make the playoffs this year.  Never mind next year.  A common refrain is that they may as well trade a lot of youth and go for it, because their window is closing.  Granted, in the 7 full seasons since then they’ve only won one WS and made the playoffs 6 times, so maybe there’s something to the complaint…

too many hits off the objective pipe here.

Have we traded for Shin-Soo Choo yet?

Here is what concerns me -
A third base coach who has NO IDEA when to send guys and when not to. (Hint: don;t send slow guys home with no outs; send fast guys home on ground balls to RF; etc.)
A manager who has has turned a starter (Phelps) into a short reliever only to have the front office send said releiver back to the monors to be ‘streched out’ back to a starter and to have manager take that starter and again use him as a short reliever.

The players - like all teams there is good and bad; but like almost no one they are 19 games over 500. A 10- game stretch going 3-7? It happens. But a 10-game strech going 3-7 while outscoring the opponent?  ugh.

And we can use a CF who can actually play CF. Maybe we can pick up that Jackson guy in Detroit or that Cabrera guy in SF. oh yeah.

The problem is that we are one day from the trade deadline, and according to MLBTR, this is all we have:

* unlikely to be in the mix for Cliff Lee
* not much life to talks regarding Chase Headley
* interest in a bunch of 3B scrubs
* resigning Cano will cost a lot

Come on Cashman, throw us a bone here! I’m already bored by Ichiro!.

I think we can stop worrying about Sterlings HR call for Ichiro, as is will never come to pass.

Send drob down to fix him, bring up - I cant believe I’m saying this - Joba for teh…well, you know.

They need either a 3B, OF or DH. But they really need an impact bat to make up for the absence of Arod.

[12] The problem is that the Yankees don’t have much to offer another team and not a lot of room to grab a “name”.  A-Rod will come back and, IMO, while he’d move to 3B for Derek Jeter, but he’s not giving up 3B and becoming a DH for some guy named Chase Headley.  But mostly, I think, the Yankees can’t afford to deal too many of their positional prospects because they’ve got a lot of holes to fill in the next 3 seasons or so and they’ll need all the ammo the have.

[11] Maybe we can pick up that Jackson guy in Detroit or that Cabrera guy in SF. oh yeah.

I wasn’t a huge fan of letting AJax go, but there’s no guarantee that these guys develop without being traded.  Thank goodness Granderson found a power stroke and suddenly is able to hit lefties, because otherwise that trade would look a lot more lopsided. 

With regards to prospects, the Yankees usually on a treadmill - they can’t afford to let their marginal prospects develop into decent 4th OFers or marginal starters with the occasional lottery ticket because they’re filling holes with expensive decline-phase journeymen.  Same production (more or less) but a lot more expensive. They develop some decent kids, have no room for them, trade them, but keep on winning.

[15] [12] The problem is that the Yankees don’t have much to offer another team and not a lot of room to grab a “name”.

Nova is certainly a player teams would value. Might even be someone you can use to get Justin Upton. Not sure I would do that, but it’s something.

[11] I’m 100% positive that Rob Thompson knows a lot more about when to send guys and when not to than we do.  The Yankees have shown no hesitation in the past to fire coaches who don’t do the job well, and Thompson is still here.  Maybe he isn’t the best coach in the league, but he certainly knows what he is doing.

I’m also sure that what Girardi is doing has the approval of the front office.  If Cashman wanted Phelps starting over Garcia, Phelps would be starting.  Garcia has been doing a good job, and though it would be nice to keep Phelps stretched out I don’t think he’s having any long-term harm done to him, and at this point he’ll probably develop further with innings in the majors. 

For the final point…like ChrisS I wasn’t a big fan of letting Jackson go.  I thought they traded too much to get Granderson; that may still be the case, but both Granderson AND Jackson have exceeded expectations.  Melky?  He reinvented himself.  I’m still not sold on how good he really is, and I don’t think he’s ever been much defensively.  Granderson was always well regarded on defense and the numbers backed it up.  Last couple of years he’s slipped, but with Gardner out they don’t exactly have a better option right now.

[16] I think I’d do Nova for Upton in the off-season.  IDK if I’d do it right now though.  That weakens the rotation (and there are concerns about Pettitte coming back this year), and there are rumors that Upton isn’t 100% right physically.  I’d rather wait for the off-season to do that, and hopefully get a 100% healthy Upton for next year.  Try to resign Kuroda and possibly Pettitte, have CC/Kuroda/Hughes/Pettitte/Phelps, with hopefully Pineda and Banuelos high-quality arms ready before June.  And also Warren and Marshall and a few others in AAA for depth.  OF left to right is hopefully Granderson/Gardner/Upton.

So many frustrating close losses in the last few games mask the fact that frustrating losses really are better than just getting their ass kicked. It means that their starting pitching is doing well, really. The offense has been the issue for most of the games and with Swisher healthy, that will likely improve. Would I like to see a really good offensive player in the DH spot? Of course. But who is out there that the Yankees could realistically get?

In addition, losing 2 out of 3 (which ESPN’s headline was “Sox Win Series” - of course it was) means that the Red Sox are not going to dump guys which means they’re stuck with their current mediocre team.

[18] IDK. I’d go into the playoffs with Phelps as the #4, with a hope that Pettitte finds his way back, especially if it means I grab J-Ups in the process.

I guess what I’m saying is that we all tend to focus on the things we don’t have, when in Nova, we have something everyone wants. Young, cost controlled pitcher who is performing.

Can’t trade Nova or Hughes. This team needs to develop the pitchers they have right now. In 2 or 3 years we could be talking about a rotation of CC, Nova, Hughes (if he re-signs), Pineda and Banuelos. It won’t cost much and then the Yankees could be in a position to sign good position players.

[18] Plus, you know, next year, Joba will be starting again ...

I wouldn’t even consider trading Nova right now.  If Pineda shows he’s healthy next year then I may entertain the notion, but I have a hunch Nova’s going to consolidate the improvements he’s made and be a legitimate #2 starter (say a 3.75 ERA guy) within a year.

To put it another way, I’d take Nova’s performance over Hughes’s over the next three years completely ignoring contracts, and I am somewhat optimistic that Hughes can be a pretty good starter.

How much it will cost to extend Hughes right now? I am optimistic that he can be a good #3 starter, even a #2 if he develops a 2-seamer.

[22] SECRET PLAN! SECRET PLAN!

[23] Nova does looks like he’ll be pretty good. I’m still taking Hughes over him though. I think Hughes is always going to give up homers, but I think he’ll figure out how to control them more than we’ve seen this season.

[24] I was just thinking about this. I would start with a 12MM/year offer and probably cap out around 15. He’s only 26, so a 5 year deal would secure him through his standard “peak” years without too much decline. So somwhere between 60/5 and 75/5.

[20] IDK I like Phelps and all.  But I think that’s asking a lot.  And also - again - the issue is which Upton are you getting?  If there are injuries that are preventing him from being the 6 WAR player he was last year, you’re probably just trading 1 WAR of Nova for 1 WAR of Upton.  So it’s probably a lateral move for this year…plus of course will AZ want more than just Nova?

[21 & 22] Upton will be 25 next year, and chances are likely he’s still improving.  So you could have a RF that looks to be a 7-8 WAR talent - or if you aren’t comfortable assigning players that for True Talent a perennial 6 WAR talent - for many more years.  I really like Nova…but I can’t see him being more than a 4 WAR talent.  And he’s older.  So get younger, fill a position of need for many years, AND add wins.  So then it’s, what else does it coest?  If it costs something minimal (Romine?) I’d say worth doing in off-season (should have an idea of where Pineda is).

[26] Hmm…buying out 2013 arb year?  I don’t think he’ll get that much in arb, personally.  Like maybe $6M?  That’s just POOMA of course.  If so, going 5/60 means next year, plus 4/54.  Right now at least, that seems like an overpay.  Not based on what he *could* be, but what he’s done so far.  Gun to head I think I’d do it…but unless he puts up some insane numbers next couple of months I think 5/50 may be able to get it done.  Maybe throw in some IP bonuses, like $1M at 200IP, and another $500K every 10 after that or some such.

[26] No way! He will earn that if he is signed as a FA after the 2013 season and he keeps pitching pretty good, but not today.  I think they could extend him to a 50/5 deal. The guy has been injured a good part of his career and has been rather inconstent when healthy.

[27] I would trade Nova for Upton in a heartbeat during the offseason. As far as in season… it’s a harder decision, but I think you still have to do it.

I think Hughes is always going to give up homers, but I think he’ll figure out how to control them more than we’ve seen this season.

I do think Hughes can improve his HR rate, but I think Nova has better and more varied stuff than him.  He just needs to get a bit better about missing in the middle of the plate so frequently.  Control tends to improve as a pitcher ages, which bodes well for him I think.

I think the homers are part of the price Hughes has paid for becoming more efficient.  Instead of nibbling, he’s challenging hitters and it’s working most of the time.  But when it doesn’t, he’s giving up long balls.  Can he figure out how to maintain efficiency while dropping his HR rate?  Maybe.

[24] I don’t know, but my guess would be something like 6/$80m.  He’s been worth $10+ as a reliever and as a starter. Higher salaries going forward - probably pay a premium to give up his free agency.  I’m not sure how other teams would value him though. I don’t think $12-$15 year would be out of the question.

[29] I doubt Hughes would sign a 50/5 contract. But yeah I forgot he still has a year of arb left. I think something between 50/5 and 60/5 would be appropriate.

I think 4/$40M would be enough to extend Hughes.  He’s a year removed from a 74 inning 5.79 ERA season. 

I’m worried about Upton’s health.  The drop in power is alarming.  I also worry when a team is willing to trade a player like Upton who should be untouchable.  If he finishes the year well I’d be less worried, although I suppose his price would then go up.  It’s also worth noting that Upton’s due $38.5M over the next three years.  He’s being paid as a roughly 2.6 win player.  He’s been worth 3.8 WAR, 1.4 WAR, 5.7 WAR and 1.4 WAR(so far this year) over the last four seasons.  I don’t know that there’s a ton of surplus value there.  While we expect young players to improve, they don’t always do that, especially when they start at the level Upton started at.

I think Nova is one of the most valuable pieces on the Yankees in terms of trade value right now, because of the four years of team control remaining after this one and the Yankees need to choose wisely if they do trade him.  I’m not sure I trust the front office in that regard.

[34] for 4/40, I think the Yankees should try to do it. The only way to lower the payroll without letting your good players go is to make some gambles and extend them when their value is not high. The perfect example is Hughes.

15MM for Hughes? I’m liking him now, but huge pass. That’s paying too much for a possible scenario of continued improvement and doesn’t discount him enough for recent injuries and poor performance.

The correct Yankee fan attitude towards the Red Sox is lordly contempt.

ESPN “Rivalry” era be damned!

So, no, not worried.

(That said, I’d still pick the Sox to win a wild card berth, straight up bet…)

Hughes and Nova are very, very comparable in upside/downside risk; I would argue for retaining both, simply because we will almost assuredly deal the wrong one if we choose to deal…

[36] Yeah, I was way off. I still think it will end up being closer to 12MM than 10MM if they do extend him.

How about buying D-Rob’s arbitration years now before he becomes the closer?

Robertson’s been a bum since returing from the DL.  He should be DFA’ed, not extended.

Seriously though, you hope the Yankees start to think about things like pre-free agency extensions given the realities of the new CBA.  Robertson would be a good candidate.  Maybe Gardner could be signed relatively cheaply coming off a lost season too?

Miek K sorry I was out all day…but how can we tell whether a third base coach is any good? Well, I have no idea how to do this but someone on this site might: How many times have the Yankees scored from 2nd on a single or first on a double versus getting thrown out; then compare to other teams. Then, for more, break it down by outs. e.g., getting thrown out at home for third out is not as bad as getting thrown out at home for the first out (Whih we’ve seen this year) , etc. I bet SG can come up with a good weighting system to prove soemthing….

[43] I had thought I had read a study some time ago on evaluating 3B coaches…but I couldn’t find it.  Best I could find is people applying methods you suggest against individual coaches (and unfortuantely, mostly in the NL and they were comparing against NL peers).

I think it can be a difficult thing to look at statistically, though it could be doable.  Just that I think when it comes down to it, there are probably only a few dozen cases a year where it is even possible to question whether the runner should be sent or not. Once you get into SSS territory, the numbers can be skewed greatly by a few great (or poor) plays.  Not saying it shouldn’t be done, but I think we need to be careful reading too much into the results early on if we do it.

FWIW, my uninformed opinion is that Thompson is aggressive and sometimes makes mistakes because of it, but probably is average(ish).  He’s supposedly also good at helping out his infielders with defensive drills, and ARod and Cano have both been better in recent years, even Teix seems improved, and who knows how much worse Jeter would be?  Since there are limits to how many coaches you can have, Thompson’s value as an IF coach may very well eclipse any negatives he has as a 3B coach.

Yeah, I thought I saw a study about third base coaches too.  I think it may have been Baseball Prospectus, and if memory serves correctly Larry Bowa was the best one.  I couldn’t find it, but I found this article which is not super-detailed. 

I suppose you could try and devise a metric for evaluating 3B coaches but you probably need play by play data and even then I’d imagine it would have pretty big error bars. 

There’s this article from 2006 which is probably not going to be of much use for us in 2012.

well, thanks anyway; it just seems to my eyeballs that this year has been particuarly bad. I sit screaming from my bed “DONT SEND HIM” only to see the send and the predictable out at the plate (one with AROD that was truly horrific with no outs in the inning); and then Sunday nioght vs Boston NOT sending ICHIRO! on Jeters hit and losing a one run game.