Call me crazy, but I think Hughes still has a (very slim) chance to be a #1 quality pitcher. His fastball is still really good and both the curve and cutter have been and continue to show flashes of being very good pitches. If he can get them all working at the same time he will be very successful.

This is absolutely the make or break year for him as a starter with the Yankees.

Can the Yankees even trade Garcia? I thought they had to wait until a certain date in the season because he was signed as a FA.

[1] I thought May 15th, but I read on RAB June 15th.  However, pretty sure that if he *consents* to the trade, it is doable.  So for example, if they go to him and say, “Freddy, you’re choices are long-relief, or being traded to the Marlins (POOMA) where you’ll start.”, he may certainly prefer the latter.  Especially as he has incentives that he almost certainly will not make pitching out of the bullpen.

Yeah, Hughes I feel is very close to putting it altogether.  Post-injury - especially if you take away his first couple of starts where he should have still been in rehab - he wasn’t that bad.  Wasn’t that good, but probably like a weak #3.  So if his stuff is just a hair better, and he adds a little more pitching IQ, maybe a weak #2.  That’s great for a 25 year old.

His fastball is still really good and both the curve and cutter have been and continue to show flashes of being very good pitches.

The fact that he can’t put hitters away with two strikes makes me think none of his pitches are really all that great.  Not saying they can’t be, but right now they aren’t.

Can the Yankees even trade Garcia?

He’d have to approve a trade, but yeah they could trade him.  I don’t think it’d be hard to get him to approve, just say he’s going to be in the pen.

I just don’t think he’d bring back much.  We have a rough idea of how he’s valued in MLB, and it’s less than what the Yankees paid to re-sign him ($4M) or he wouldn’t have re-signed.  So if other teams are valuing him as a 1.0 WAR pitcher, they probably aren’t going to trade him for more than that, unless you factor in some sort of salary relief as well.

I’ve basically given up on Phil. Would love to see him do better (remember Hughes Day from the first half of 2010?) but he’s basically a non-factor when I think about the team going forward.

I agree that 2012 is a make or break year, but I’m not even sure he’ll even be with the team all the way through. He’s pitched parts of 5 different seasons now, and the team has been the model of patience with him, so I think he might be the one to go at some point.

[2] Also, there have been some flashes of his change being a quality pitch as well. Cliff Lee didn’t figure it out until he was 29 (I doubt that Hughes is going to become Cliff Lee). The problem with Hughes is that it feels like he’s been around forever, even though he’s still just 25.

[3] The fastball is good now, the others are too inconsistent, if he’s lucky he has one of his non-fastball pitches working on a given day. The emergence of Nova and the trade for Pineda along with the coming of Betances and Banuelos certainly puts Hughes’ 2012 in the spotlight in terms of his future. And if the Yankees try to rehab Joba as a starter it puts even more importance on Hughes being successful early in the season this year.

The fact that he can’t put hitters away with two strikes makes me think none of his pitches are really all that great.  Not saying they can’t be, but right now they aren’t.

This is my biggest concern as well.  It’s like watching Mussina towards the end.

[7] I assume you’re talking about 2007, because 2008 was a wonderful thing to watch. In fact, Moose’s last season is my favorite season by a pitcher I have ever witnessed.

CMW-esque regression seems waaaayyy too possible for Nova. Dumping Hughes before the season starts seems like it would be rash. I’d rather see them muddle through the first half with a lousy DH and reassess pitching/offense needs at the break.

[5] Right.  His curve post-injury looked better as well.  Not as good as when he first came up, but a useful pitch.  Basically, the rose-colored glasses version; if he tightens up his commnad/control just a little, adds just a little bit (velociy, movement both) to his FB, adds a little break to his curve, and EITHER firms up his cutter or change a little, he could be like a 7.5K/9, 3BB/9 pitcher.  Maybe even a bit better.  That’s good.  Now if he can’t do those things - and if you accept that early 2011 was really just a dead/arm thing - he’s still a #4 pitcher as a starter.  That’s valuable too, even just as depth.

CMW-esque regression seems waaaayyy too possible for Nova

So he’s going to suffer a freak, season ending foot-injury, then severely injure his shoulder in part by compensating for the foot?  Because that’s how you get that type of regression…

[9] Depends on what they could get for Hughes.

Frankly, for a guy that was untouchable in previous off-seasons, I can’t imagine the Yankees could get a whole lot for him.  Then again, I don’t know anything.  I’m sure the Yankees could market him as more of a closer than a starter - would they be able to get a hitter like Holliday (like Oakland did with Huston Street)?  I know Street had a bout 4 times as many IPs in a reliever role than Hughes did and the A’s gave up CarGo, too.  Is there even a hitter like that available?

Frankly, I’d move him.  Yeah, his value is low, but his upside is still high.  He hasn’t failed as a reliever and he’s young.  But the next big things are on their way and could push him out.

[12] If you are really going to move him, why not let him rebuild his value as a reliever in 2012, he’s not making that much money.

RAB analysis suggests the Yankees won’t be able to get under the 2014 cap while signing Hole Camels and retaining Grandy, Canoe and Swish Nickers.

Boo.

Phil Hughes for Logan Morrison, who says no first?

I don’t think Swisher will be retained, and I think Granderson’s 50/50.  They’ll keep Cano, most likely.

[15] George Marlin does.

[16] Yeah, Swish is probably gone. I like Swish, but he’s getting oldish and probably a bit too pricey.

Who would replace Swish Knickers and/or C-Grand?

[19] Who knows, A lot depends on how the farm system develops.

I’ll say this: I’d rather have Hughes in the rotation than Burnett.  At least there’s some upside with Phil.

Plus, I have the suspicion that if the Yankees trade him, he’ll suddenly put it all together for the other team.  Which would be highly irritating.

[20] Would Mason Williams be ready for the show in 2014?  Our farm system isn’t brimming over with outfielders, is it?  I hope Heathcott bounces back this year.

I hate to be highly irritated.  On the other hand, how do you titillate an ocelot?  Oscillate its tit a lot.

NYUK NYUK NYUK!

Who would replace Swish Knickers and/or C-Grand?

Too soon to even speculate about that. They have Granderson for two more years, at which point they should have an idea if one of those three is an option for CF, or LF with Gardner shifting to CF.  They could offer Swisher arbitration and hope he accepts, which gives them one more year to decide.  The 2013 free agent class is thin in OF.  Hopefully one or more of Mason Williams, Ravel Santana and Slade Heathcott tears things up this year.

[22] Heathcott seems like he’ll be good if he can stay healthy. But he’s on his, what 3rd? shoulder surgery in 4 years? That’s not good.

[24] It’s never too soon for speculation, hearsay, rumor or inyourendo.

And then there’s the matter of needing a shortstop after 2014 and ending years of negative infinity UZR.

[27] How long is Troy Tulo signed for?

tulong

Our farm system isn’t brimming over with outfielders, is it?  I hope Heathcott bounces back this year.

Yes and no.  Above high-A you’ve got:

Laird - limited OF experience, questions about if he is just taking time to adjust to AAA or if he’s reached his ceiling.

Dan Brewer - I like Brewer and was really looking forward to what he could do in AAA until his season was derailed by injuries.  Seems like a guy with no standout tool, but does everything well.  Not much power but a little (.137 ISO in AA as a 22 year old), takes a walk (.076 isoD) but isn’t Abreu or anything, some speed (74/98 in 380 MiLB games), seems like a plus OF in the corners and can handle CF but not quite a top-tier defender.  2012 is a big year for him to prove he can be a big-league player.

Melky Mesa - real toolsy player, but just finished AA as a 24-year old, and didn’t do enough to guarantee that he’ll be in AAA in 2012.

Really, that’s it.  Down in A+ and lower there’s Heathcott, Williams, Ramon Flores, Eduardo Sosa, maybe Rob Segedin (they used him in LF in the AFL), Ravel Santana, and maybe a few others.

[28] Until his mid-30’s, I think.  Yeah BBRef says FA in 2021.  Stephen Drew is a possibility in a couple of years, at least as a bridge if/until some of the guys in SS ball develop.

Graham Stoneburner should make the majors for his name alone.

I watched Moneyball for the first time last night. It was good, but I didn’t enjoy it as much as I though I would, it seemed… fractured.

[33] - Yeah knowing everything that has happened since kind of ruins it.  Although I still go back and read the draft chapter every few years for laughs.

[33] Saw it on a plane.  Jumping from the triumph of “The Streak” to the last out of a losing ALDS to Beane interviewing in Boston…yeah.  Choppy.  Thumb half down for me.

[33] I saw it not long after it came out, which was also years after I read the book.  I actually liked it *better* than I thought I would, but right after it came out a few people (particularly Keith Law) really panned it.  I had low expectations going in.  It’s a decent enough movie; I think it helped that when they were flashing formulas up on the screen and talking about them, I knew what they represented.

The fastball is good now, the others are too inconsistent, if he’s lucky he has one of his non-fastball pitches working on a given day.

Hughes’ fastball averaged 91.6 in the second half of last season.  He was coming back from whatever was wrong with his arm so who knows how that affected his stuff.
But his fastball averaged 92.5 in 2010 and 93.7 in ‘09.  Granted, pitching out of the pen certainly helped, but overall the decline is concerning.
His fastball swing and miss rate has also declined every year since ‘09: 23.5%, 19.5%, 12.6%.  Even after coming back from injury in July, it was just 14.1% for the rest of the season.

I’d love to see him rise to #2 or #3 status, but there’s too much suggesting otherwise at this point.

[34] I still haven’t read the book, but the concept of OBP being the only thing that matters, while ahead of its time then, seems so foolishly simple now. The movie is almost a parody of the whole era, given how much sabermetrics, scouting and the relationship between them have changed in the last 10 years.

[37] What is the average swing and miss rate on fastballs? On all pitches its around 8%, so 23.5 and 19.5 are super high.

Why doesn’t Yankees.com have the countdown to pitchers and catchers?

[38] - I actually liked the book.  It was extremely arrogant in tone and hearing Beane trash all the players drafted ahead of Nick Swisher and talk up Jeremy Brown is hysterical to look back on but there were a lot of individual stories and insight that were just great.  I especially enjoyed the Scott Hatteberg chapter.

What is the average swing and miss rate on fastballs?

Over the past two seasons, it’s around 15%.  It’s not so much where he sits right now, but the decline that bothers me.  Loss of velocity and increased contact rate is typically something that happens later on in a pitcher’s career.

[41] Yeah, it’s worrisome. My guess is that we’ll see Hughes with velocity more like 2010 in 2012.

[42]  The return of Claybot?

[43] nah, I’m just cautiously hopeful for Hughes. liek Mike said I think he’s really close to putting it all together. He’s shown flashes of 3 above average offspeed pitches and his fastball has always been good to very good. If he can consistently throw the change or curve I think he’ll be very successful.

But I’m far more excited to see Pineda than I am Hughes. I am interested in seeing how the possible wealth of pitching turns out in June/July. By that point I expect that the Yankees will have a pretty good idea of whether the two remaining Bs (along with Warren and Phelps) will be usable in 2012 and what role Joba will be coming back to.

Maybe Hughes was having too much beer and fried chicken, unbeknownst to us all. I’d like to think that last year was a wake up call for him and a good off-season training program gets him back on track.

[45] I just hope he looks less like CC this year. He was very wide looking last year.

It’s definitely easy to forget how young he is.  I don’t see him as a potential ace anymore, but I do think he could be a solid 2 or 3.

I am looking forward to Pineda.  I hope that both he and Montero thrive and that this trade works out for both teams…minus the Mariners winning a WS.  Even if the Yanks use Jones as their everyday DH, their offense still projects near the top of the league, right?

I really hate it when everyone goes home from work and there’s no baseball on.

Hughes and Pineda: the developing an effective change-up so we can have a weapon against left-handed hitters chronicles.

Much preferable to the A.J. Burnett developing better mechanics so my finish doesn’t look like a country house patio door swung open by a sudden gust of late summer wind Chronicles.

Much preferable to the A.J. Burnett developing better mechanics so my finish doesn’t look like a country house patio door swung open by a sudden gust of late summer wind How do we get him off the team? Chronicles.

FTFY

For those who like a little paradox of free will in their baseball:

http://www.theonion.com/articles/prince-fielder-wondering-if-he-has-truly-free-agen,27032/

[51] For whatever reason, the Onion is just brilliant when it comes to Prince Fielder.

[52] Truth. This may be one of my top 5 fave stories to ever appear on the site.

[53] An homage to the Bugs Bunny episode where he’s stranded on a desert island.

May as well post that while I still can.

For those youngsters amongst us, Bugs Bunny cartoons are what we used to watch in the afternoons after coming home from school before internet pron was invented.

[53] Most certainly.

[55]  Still watching em Crusher. What’s an internet? Whats pron?  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RbognHlK0Ck

I’d much rather watch Hughes try to be good than Burnert try not to be bad regardless of who the more correct trade piece is, if that makes sense.

I also learned today that David Bowie was once voted 3rd best male vocalist and best female vocalist in the same year.

Watching Burnett pitch is like watching a circus clown juggle flaming chainsaws. You never relax until it’s over or somebody loses a finger.

Or he burns the entire place to the ground.

A-Rod says the team is prepping for DH by committee.

http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/story/_/id/7481639/new-york-yankees-alex-rodriguez-prepping-third-says-dh-revolve

[61] I kinda think this is the way to go, with Alex being about 1/3 of the committee.

That is, assuming Nunez/Laird can stay at or above replacement level.  I don’t know that they can.  But I support finding out.

Bugs Bunny cartoons are what we used to watch in the afternoons after coming home from school before internet pron was invented

And now thanks to the internet, I’m sure you can find Bugs Bunny porn, if that’s your thing.

I’d much rather watch Hughes try to be good than Burnert try not to be bad regardless of who the more correct trade piece is, if that makes sense.

I’d much rather watch Bugs Bunny pitch than Burnett, if that makes sense.

That is, assuming Nunez/Laird can stay at or above replacement level.  I don’t know that they can.  But I support finding out.

I also support finding out.  I’m pretty sure they can.  Maybe not *much* above RL - given maybe 350 PA for Nunez and 250 for Laird, I can see Nunez with a WAR around 1 and Laird .5.  But 600PA and 1.5 WAR are plenty out of those two; anything more than that is a bonus, anything less should be easy enough to replace before August 1.

[63] Relevant.

I think they’ll get another bat.  Reportedly, they have earmarked $1-2 million for a DH, so even if that’s all they’re willing to spend, I can’t see why they wouldn’t spend it.  It’s not as if saving that $1-2 million is going to give them any more financial flexibility in the future.

[65] At work…not sure if the link will even work.  Pretty sure I won’t want to find out right now

[66] It’s a matter of if they can find a bat that’s worth paying that amount for.  For example, say Damon.  I think as a lefty part of a platoon with Jones - and emergency OF - Damon for $2M would be great, and would improve the team.  What if Damon refuses to take $2M, and instead wants $4M?  Well, then they don’t get Damon.  Same for Betemit (who is probably worth more than Damon), etc.  Maybe the only DH candidate they could sign for $2M is Guerro…and he honestly probably isn’t worth it at this point, especially to the Yankees who don’t need the RH part of a DH platoon.

Just spending money b/c you have it isn’t wise.  Especially if at the deadline Hal says, “sorry, that $2M you spent on the DH you’re now replacing, is why you can’t spend $2M for a half-season of _____”.

[65] and an addendum, in case anyone hasn’t seen it.

It’s definitely easy to forget how young he is.

Here’s an interesting thought experiment—translate Hughes’ major and minor league stats to NPB and speculate on what kind of posting bids that pitcher would attract.

Hey remember when Papelbon blew that save right before Proctor gave up that home run, and Boy Wonder had to leave TWN in disgrace? Haha.

Semi-serious question.  Next year do we call him Fausto Carmona or Roberto Heredia?

[68]  I hear what you’re saying, but I interpret the reports that the Yankees have $1-2 million left to buy a DH to mean that they in fact intend to use it.  So while it may not be a prudent expenditure because there may not be anyone WORTH $2 million that they GET for $2 million, they’re still going to use that money to take a flyer on another bat rather than count on Nuney et al to take those ABs. 

Two other quick thoughts on this:  First, I don’t see any particular reason why, at the $1-2 million price point, the Yankees can’t find reasonable bang for the buck.  If we were talking about $30 million, clearly there is no single player available who would be worth that.  Similarly, in a hypothetical world in which there were no league-minimum salaries, they presumably couldn’t find a $50,000 player who wouldn’t be far worse than, for example, having Andruw Jones serve as full-time.  However, I don’t see why they can’t get a $2 millionplayer for $2 million.

Second, the whole idea they only have $1-2 million to spend here could be a total ruse to get someone who might otherwise hold them up for $7-8 million (Damon?  Posada?) to agree on say $3-4 MM (perhaps with incentives). So while I think the supposedly earmarked $1-2 MM indicates they intend to get SOMEONE, I don’t necessarily think it reflects the last dollar they’d actually be willing to spend.

[73] I agree.  Letting the world know they have $2m to spend on a DH is part of their negotiating posture, as is letting the world know that they’re only taking calls from DH candidates, not making them.  If their stance drives down Pena’s price to $4-5m, I’d bet they jump on that.

do we call him Fausto Carmona or Roberto Heredia?

I’m planning to call him Leo Nunez.

[74] Speaking of which,

Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports reports that the Rays “are in pretty deep” on Carlos Pena.
A reunion between the two makes perfect sense, and it would seem like money might be the only obstacle in getting something done. Pena has drawn interest from the Indians and has been speculatively linked to the Yankees and Tigers, but it seems likely the momentum is swinging towards the Rays, who have a glaring opening at first base. Pena, 33, batted .225/.357/.462 with 28 home runs and 80 RBI across 606 plate appearances last season for the Cubs.

Maybe Leo Nunez is Fausto Carmona.

[71] That was AWESOME !

the momentum is swinging towards the Rays, who have a glaring opening at first base

Since we now have a good defensive but light hitting 1B, maybe we can just start calling Teixeira “Eyechart II” and make it official.

[77] I think we have enough Nunezes…Nunii ? on this team thankyouverymuch.

Edit: [69] yoink

[71, 78] What was so great is that the Pimplebuns meltdown and Rays comeback went down within minutes of each other, leaving TWN in a state of analprophylactic shock.

Nonez has been received in Seattle with great optimism.

[80] I’m glad Papelbon went to a douche team I already hate.

Ah, who’s kidding who ? I hate them all except us.

[75] - MLB.com has him as Juan Oviedo but still has the other one as Fausto Carmona.  Maybe they haven’t had enough time.  This could get confusing…

[81] - Ouch at that last sentence.

Rays to sign Fausto Pena.

[85] - He was a long shot at best.  Hopefully the Yankees helped jack up his price, not lower it for the Rays.

I don’t want Matsui or Damon.  The back pages have been praising their clutchiness.  To which I say, “Clutch this, m*thaf*ckah!”

Rays’ deal with Leo Fausto Pena is for $7.25m.

[87] - Agreed.  I value someone who can play 3b to give Alex more “half days off” and cover for him in case of injury more than nostalgia.

As long as we’re on the subject of a part time 3B and a potential left handed DH:

I haven’t heard the name Eric Chavez in at least two weeks.  I haven’t seen anything about him retiring or signing with someone else.  Is he still a possibility?

I’d prefer Betemit but I haven’t seen anything linking him to the Yankees.

[89, 90] This is where my thinking has been running. But it would be neat to have Damon on the bench. Not sure why. Dooditude, maybe.

To which I say, “Clutch this, m*thaf*ckah!”

Isn’t that kind of what got you into your current position?

I haven’t heard the name Eric Chavez in at least two weeks.

Last Chavez “news” was Lord Haw-Haw claiming that the Nationals, Rays and Padres were all interested along with the Yankees.  I suspect that singing Pena means that Tampa has lost interest.

I like Hugo, but I think it’s more important to have someone who can hit a little and stand at SS if necessary.  They don’t really need a BU 1B, since Swisher can do that with Jones playing RF.

Is it a coincidence that the amount the Yankees say they have left to spend on a DH type, $1-$2M, is what they paid Chavez last season?

[73 & 74] Well, we’ll never really know for sure what they intend to do until they do it.  We do know* that Hal has overruled Cashman before on spending $$‘s (Mike Cameron).  We also know* that he had to approve going “over budget” for Teixeria, and I believe Kuroda.  So I don’t think it is at all unlikely that Hal has said, “at most, you can spending $2M on a DH. 

Is it part of negotiating strategy?  Almost definitely.  But what is the strategy?  It could simply be to announce to everyone…we’re not going to spend more than $2M on DH, don’t waste our time if you aren’t going to come in under that figure.  I also don’t get that they *intend* to spend it, and will spend it just because.  Levine does things that way, but he seems minimized.  Cashman…I don’t think does.

Is it that easy to get a $2M player for $2M?  Just eyeballing on FanGraphs, it looks reasonable to project Damon as a 1WAR platoon DH.  So that should be worth about $5M.  Again, if they can get Damon for 2, jump on it.  But why should Damon settle for 2 if he’s worth 5?  Betemit probably similar, maybe a little worse, so same question.  I think it’s more wish-casting; believing the players worth the investment would come cheaper than they will, and that the guys who would take that amount are worth it.  IMHO.

*as much as we can know anything.

*as much as we can know anything.

Stop hanging out with Prince Fielder.

Just eyeballing on FanGraphs, it looks reasonable to project Damon as a 1WAR platoon DH.  So that should be worth about $5M.

But it doesn’t seem to actually work that way too often.  $/WAR averages are inflated by what teams have to pay to sign the truly elite players, so players like Damon who still figure to be reasonably valuable even on the downside of their careers often won’t get what they’re “worth.”  Coming off of his Yankee contract (which he had more or less earned every dollar of), he got 1/$8M.  He put up 2.3 WAR (IOW, he was worth a fair bit more than he got paid) but he had to settle for $5.25M the next year.  His production went up, but I suspect his salary will continue to go down.

EDIT: and Carlos Pena just took $7.5M from the Rays after putting up 2.2 bWAR and 2.6 fWAR last year while making $10M.

[94]  singing Pena

He’s going to earn that $7.5 million partially through bachata.