The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:

Tuesday, November 6, 2012

TGS NY: Agent: Soria would set up for Mo

Over his past four active years, Joakim Soria averaged nearly 36 saves, building a reputation as one of the finest young closers in the game. In the past, the Yankees have asked the Royals about Soria in trade discussions. Now, following a season off after Tommy John elbow surgery, Soria is a free agent.

Soria, just 28, would like to close, but he would be willing to go to the Yankees to learn from his idol Mariano Rivera.

“If the Yankees call, we will be all ears,” Soria’s agent, Oscar Suarez, said by phone Monday. “If there is a fit, Joakim would be elated to work with Mo. He would close everywhere except there.”

Suarez said Yankees GM Brian Cashman has yet to inquire. Eight other clubs, all contending teams, have already contacted Suarez about Soria. Soria could also return to Kansas City, which declined his $8 million option for next season, allowing him to become a free agent.

Suarez said that Soria will be ready for spring training, but probably won’t be able to pitch in major league games until May of next season. Other reports have tabbed June as a more likely date.

I’d like to see the Yankees take a flier on Soria, although the track record of pitchers in their first year back from Tommy John surgery is mixed.  CAIRO would project Soria to put up the following line as a Yankee:

65 IP, 61 H, 7 HR, 19 BB, 63 K, 3.69 RA, 3.46 ERA, 3.56 FIP.

Of course, CAIRO doesn’t know that he’s coming off surgery and his past performance may not give us a complete picture of who he is now.

--Posted at 6:50 pm by SG / 8 Comments | - (0)


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That projection seems to include a lot of HRs.  Is Soria homer prone?

^ disgraceful bandbox, etc

It’s around league average and essentially the same as his 2011.  The move to DNYS and the fact that he’s regressed more heavily because of the missed year explains the bulk of it.

He’s not really homer prone.  He’s just not Mo.

I’d love Soria on a two-year deal. Provided the money isn’t insane, of course.

The Yankees don’t need to spend money on the bullpen.  Save it for the lineup and SP.

[5] Agree in general, but that doesn’t mean they should walk away from a potential bargain.  Soria has a chance to be a true shut down reliever.  That is, when previously healthy he was a true shut-down reliever, and at his age and the type of surgery, he can probably get back to that.

So given the Yankees’ needs and finances, what constitutes a bargain?  If he signs for $4M in 2013, with a club option for $8M in 2014 ($2M buyout), is that a bargain?  I think yes, and it shouldn’t affect the bottom line much (especially if that helps them convince Mo to take under $10M).  If the numbers start getting into three guaranteed years for $30M or something no, hang up and walk away.

So given the Yankees’ needs and finances, what constitutes a bargain?  If he signs for $4M in 2013, with a club option for $8M in 2014 ($2M buyout), is that a bargain?

I think it’s a reasonably good situation.  Maybe not a bargain.  If 2013 is Mo’s last year and Soria pitches well this year you’ve got his replacement on hand making less than Mo will probably make this year, and you buy another year for Montgomery to advance and for Joba to move further away from his injury. 

Then you can either keep Soria and pay him market rate for a closer or promote Robertson or Joba to the ninth and have Montgomery hopefully entrenched in the late innings.

I realize that was sort of the thought process with Aardsma, but I don’t think he’s all that good.  His walk rate has never been great and I think Safeco made him seem better than his raw stats there indicate.  No problem with him as an arm in middle relief, but not someone I’d peg as a potential Mo replacement in 2014.

I realize that was sort of the thought process with Aardsma, but I don’t think he’s all that good.

I think likely Cashman just saw an opportunity to get a quality arm for cheap.  Aardsma (if he gets healthy) is probably great as a middle reliever, like a 4th arm in the pen.  IDK if Cashman buys into the “true closer” idea at all.  But he *does* buy into the idea that stockpiling good, MLB ready arms is smart.

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