The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Teixeira, Cano honored with Gold Glove Awards

The right side of the Yankees’ infield is officially golden again this year, as Mark Teixeira and Robinson Cano have been named as recipients of Rawlings Gold Glove Awards at their respective positions.

It is the fifth Gold Glove Award for Teixeira at first base, and Cano’s second at second base.This marks the third time in the last four seasons that the Yankees have had at least two Gold Glove winners in the same year. Derek Jeter and Teixeira also won in 2009, while Cano, Jeter and Teixeira all won in 2010.


Here are the winners:

2012 GOLD GLOVE WINNERS
POS AL winner NL winner
C Matt Wieters, BAL Yadier Molina, STL
1B Mark Teixeira, NYY Adam LaRoche, WAS
2B Robinson Cano, NYY Darwin Barney, CHC
SS J.J. Hardy, BAL Jimmy Rollins, PHI
3B Adrian Beltre, TEX Chase Headley, SD
LF Alex Gordon, KC Carlos Gonzalez, COL
CF Adam Jones, BAL Andrew McCutchen, PIT
RF Josh Reddick, OAK Jason Heyward, ATL
P Jeremy Hellickson, TB
Jake Peavy, CWS Mark Buehrle, MIA

Mike Trout is the most notable omission, I’d imagine. Plus, I dunno if I ever really thought of JJ Hardy as a defensive player.

Congrats to Cano and Teix!

--Posted at 2:08 am by Brian Cronin / 33 Comments | - (0)

Comments

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Soriano expected to opt out today.  Boras avatar Heyman says Soriano’s looking for a 4 year deal, and “Yankees are likely willing to give him a two-year deal.”  That part sounds like guesswork by Heyman.  Most importantly anyway is how many years is Randy Levine willing to give him?

I noticed in the article on Yankees.com about Soriano opting out that by opting out, he’s guaranteed to make more money in 2013 from the Yankees even if he just accepts their qualifying offer.

You see, by opting out, the Yankees had to give him $1.5 million (what a great contract they gave Soriano. Dude opts out and gets paid by the Yankees for opting out). The qualifying offer would be $13.3. The contract he chose not to opt in for was $14 million. Well, $13.3 plus $1.5 equals $14.8 million. So even if Soriano wanted to be a Yankee this year, he’d be a fool NOT to opt out (once he established that the Yankees would be willing to make the qualifying offer, of course).

I think it’s worth the 800K gamble to the Yankees that someone is willing to kneel down and give him a multiyear deal. Plus, even on a $14.8M contract for one year, he is tradeable. Although I would worry about Mo retiring and Levine giving Soriano an all new 4 year deal with higher AAV and opts outs after each season.

[3]  Yeah, I think the qualifying offer is a relative no brainer with the uncertainty surrounding Mo. 

I personally think the Yankees should be prepared to blow out the budget for 2013, get as many Kuroda-type one-year contracts to surround Jeter, Mo, and Pettitte for one last run, then think about a more serious rebuilding effort in 2014.

[2] I did think of that the other day.  I agree with [3] though.  Another 800K likely won’t make/break the Yankees’ budget.  Especially if Mo retires.  But Soriano likely won’t accept, and the Yankees will welcome that pick.  Especially since it’s likely they’ll lose their own pick, though not definitely.  My new dream (from last thread) is trading for Alex Gordon.  If they do that and keep they’re own pick, it’s possible that they’ll have a top-25 pick (since likely 5+ teams ahead of them will forfeit picks), and potentially as many as 4 or even 5 picks inside of the top-50 (Soriano and Swisher definitely, potentially also Kuroda and Martin).

Wow, look at all the Tigers on that list.

[2] Soriano’s new contract will allow him monthly opt-outs, each accompanied by a $800k bonus.

[4] They’re not going to blow out the budget for 2013.  Not happening.  I don’t think they’re going to rebuild in 2014 either.  While I do think Cashman is going to try to plug holes with 1 year deals in a lot of places - especially starting pitching - I also think he’s going to investigate trying to get some long-term deals in place for under-30 players.  Either by extension, FA, or trade. 

Extension targets are Cano and Martin, possibly even Hughes.  I think Gardner could have been a candidate if he were healthy and repeated 2011/2012, but isn’t now.

FA targets are BJ Upton or Melky for position players.  Grienke, Sanchez, Floyed, Jackson.  Maybe take a flyer on a 3-year, cheaper deal with Liriano, McCarthy, or Feldman.  Those deals would have options/incentives.

Trade targets are Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Chase Headley.  Maybe Andrus.  Maybe a buy-low on Nick Hundley and hope his 2012 was a flukishly bad year, partially because of injury.

Of course, these things aren’t in isolation either.  If they were to sign Grienke to a long term deal (for example), maybe it frees them up to trade some of their young pitching (Phelps has to have increased his value) for Gordon, who is cheaper than a lot of FA options.

My personal expectation, the Yankees will make at least one move towards the future this off-season, acquiring an under-30 player under contract through at least 2015.  After that they’ll get 1-year contracts and start maneuvering towards getting younger/better/cheaper in 2014.

[4] I put together a pretty comprehensive post about the 2013 and 2014 payrolls a few threads ago, and basically came to the conclusion that they could put a solid team on the field in 2014, with $20M to spend on two OFs.  Broad strokes are that they’d be spending $22M AAV on Cano, $10M on Hughes to round out a rotation that includes Sabathia, Pineda, Phelps and Nova, $5M on a bench, $15M on a bullpen (closer, set up man and Robertson’s Arb 3 year), $7M on a catcher, and ~$13M on the 15 players not on the 25 man.  This clearly assumes quality production from 3B (Rodriguez), 1B (Teixiera), SS (maybe Nunez is the full time starter or maybe Jeter still is), so there’s a lot of risk there.

But there’s also a lot of flexibility in that plan.  There are good FA SP options, so maybe you spend more AAV and don’t bring back Hughes.  Maybe you can build a bench for less than $5M.  Maybe things don’t work out with Martin this offseason and 2013 is tough to swallow at C, but Romine becomes the starter in 2014 and we’ve saved some money.  Of course maybe all of these dice rolls come up snake eyes, but at that point, ownership still always has the option of buying it’s way out of problems.

So, to me, the plan becomes reducing the expected cost of the roster I described above, which I believe requires giving younger players more playing time in 2013 and then also choosing one of these two options for 2014:

(1) Cano at $22M AAV (or therabouts) and needing 2 OF and a DH with $20M AAV total to spend.
(2) Plan for Adams or Joseph at 2B in 2014, and then having ~$42M AAV to to spend on 2 OF’s and a DH.  Trade Cano now so that you can get something for him besides a draft pick.
(3) Plan for Adams or Joseph at 2B in 2014, but don’t trade Cano. If Williams or Austin show that they’re capable of holding down a spot, then you can sign Cano and you have $20M and Adams and Joseph with which to find a corner OF.

I figure they’ll go with option 3, but the problem with waiting for these guys to see if they can be options is that they some objective criteria to be evaluated against.  We’re never going to feel super comfortable giving a spot to a rookie out of ST, but at some point you have to. Williams and Austin are only in High A. Lots of uncertainty between here and there.

They’re not going to blow out the budget for 2013. Not happening. I don’t think they’re going to rebuild in 2014 either.

I agree with this. Cashman can’t get away with an obvious fire sale move and admit they aren’t going to be competitive. This isn’t Boston, fer crissakes. Our version of “rebuilding year” is a quiet acknowledgement that we’re not trying to slot in to all 9 spots on the All-Star team. They’ll still try to reach the playoffs, just not expect to do it via the Division and HFA throughout.

I think Gardner could have been a candidate if he were healthy and repeated 2011/2012, but isn’t now. <snip>  Maybe a buy-low on Nick Hundley and hope his 2012 was a flukishly bad year, partially because of injury.

These seem contrary. Why would they not be at least as willing to see if Gardner bounces back as Hundley ? Or are you just saying they don’t need to extend Gardner now as he’s still under contract (is he ?)

My personal expectation, the Yankees will make at least one move towards the future this off-season, acquiring an under-30 player under contract through at least 2015.  After that they’ll get 1-year contracts and start maneuvering towards getting younger/better/cheaper in 2014.

This is the sensible strategy, to me. Especially compared to those wanting to blow the team up, ala Fenway.

[7] So, don’t go all-in for one last run with Mo/Jeter/Rivera AND try avoid the unavoidable need to rebuild if they truly want to lower the payroll? Sounds like a plan that should have them losing comfortably in the first round for years to come! (I know it’s not your plan, and it’s just your thoughts on what they’ll do)

[7] To piggy back on Mike K.‘s ideas, I would certainly try to sign Melky Cabrera.  I’d give him a 2 year deal but would prefer 1 year with an option to reduce to some of the risk of impacting 2014. The idea here is that you want to win the bidding - so you’ll need to beat teams offers, and 2 years probably does it. I think he’s a good bet to be an above average player, and he’s got the unique warts that make him an efficient purchase. I also liked trading for Choo, until I saw how impotent he was vs LHP. He’s not even playable against LHP, really.

I think that we’re going to be in massive trouble if we start considering expending resources to plug holes that aren’t holes as much as they are annoyances.  Headley’s a nice player, but why would I spend my limited resources on upgrading at 3B? Rodriguez’s decline is annoying, but it’s not a hole.  We currently have one OF for 2014. Likewise at SS.

I’m not a fan of BJ Upton at all.  We talk about his youth, what deal he’ll command, etc., but seem to gloss over his performance. He’s a sub 3-WAR (by BR) player at his peak who strikes out a lot. Hell, he got over 600 PA’s last year and had an OBP of .298. That’s not someone I want to give a 4 year deal to.

I do very much like Justin Upton, but I don’t see any efficient deal there.  Maybe he falls in your lap, but not likely. Kevin Towers knows what he’s doing.

Or are you just saying they don’t need to extend Gardner now as he’s still under contract (is he ?)

Yeah, Gardner is under contract.  Is under contract through I think 2014.  So they still have all of this year and potentially next year to determine if he should get a long-term deal.  I just think if he put up another 3-5 WAR season at age 28, he would have been a candidate to sign a 5 or 6 year deal this off-season, instead of going through arbitration.  That is, Yankees take a little risk to save a lot of money and have above-average OF signed for reasonable cost for many years.  But they won’t do it now.

[10]  Well, going “all in” is difficult, too.  Simply, most of their players under contract are a year older, and not in the zone where we would expect them to get better, or at least not-worse.  So IDK where they would get many solutions that would be expensive and be a big asset for 2013, but not impact 2014 and beyond.  Minus maybe doing a Marlins-like fire-sale after 2014.

I also don’t think they need to “rebuild” to lower payroll by ~$20M, in 2 years.  Heck, I mean, they’ll still have a top-5 payroll!  2013 will give us a lot of information, but it isn’t unreasonable that some of the kids in A+/AA last year, could be pushing for playing time in 2014, and/or looking to be major contributers in 2015.  Of course, lots of guys could take a step back as well.

[11] Headley fills a long term need, and will quite likely be available.  So it’s all about cost.  I’m still a believer that ARod would make a fine RF.  If you believe that, and Headley’s cost isn’t prohibitive, then you fill the RF hole for several years, plus get an MVP candidate at 3rd, still in his prime.  Also, I have a feeling that finding a 4th OF to spell ARod for the time he’ll miss will be easier than finding a 3B.  That’s just a feeling though.  If you don’t feel ARod can handle RF, then no, there’s not much point in trading for Headley; unless they also have a way out of ARod’s contract that makes sense.

One of the issues with Melky is, he’s a late-season signing.  Early on he’ll be the low-cost option, but as OF come off the market he’ll be the last, best option.  And then may be more expensive.  But also, I think he’ll *wait* to be the last option to see if that drives his price up.  Which means the Yankees may be waiting until late January.  I think that’s risky…also of course, getting him a 1-2 year deal does nothing to help with the long-term goal of needing to be younger/cheaper.  Either he sucks, and they haven’t improve the team.  Or he’s great, and 1 year away from PED will be expensive (and not under control).  If you want a stopgap, I think Torri Hunter is a good option.

BJ it all depends on defense really.  TZ doesn’t think he’s much of a fielder, so has him as a 1-3 WAR player.  UZR thinks he’s a pretty good defender, and has him more in the 2-4 win range.  Yes his OBP was very low last year, but was a perfectly fine .331 the year before.  Basically on the high end, he’s a RH version of what the Yankees thought they were getting with Granderson; speed, good D, 20-30 HR power.  The former will be overpriced.  The latter I think on a 4/60 deal is a good one.

Justin, money wise in the years that matter for salary will probably cost as much as BJ, plus lots of players to get him.  And there’s a lot of uncertainity if age 23 was just a career year, and he’ll be a 3-4 win player going forward, or a superstar worth the money/players.  I think BJ Upton at $15M a year is better than Justin for the same, but also giving up 2-3 high-quality prospects.

I like the idea of Gordon.  Cost ($$) is good, age is good, talent is there.  And KC isn’t exactly known for making the shrewdest of moves…

[14] ARod to RF is actually not a bad idea. Assuming his hips are still a concern, it should be easier on his hips than the mostly lateral movement of 3B. I am all on board for picking up Headley, he would absolutely crush in DNYS.

I’m not a huge fan of BJ (I think you get similar production from someone like Pagan for less money and years). I think it would behoove the Yankees to move aggressively in the OF market, especially if they want Melky.

[14] I’m still a believer that ARod would make a fine RF.  If you believe that

I think it’s a question of being realistic. There’s no realistic chance of Rodriguez playing RF.

also of course, getting him a 1-2 year deal does nothing to help with the long-term goal of needing to be younger/cheaper

Sure it does. It gets you a potentially high performing OF for 2014 which gives you the extra year you need to determine if Austin or Williams are viable options. We say the words ‘ready’, but ‘ready’ may never happen. If it does happen, the better bet is on 2015. 

BJ it all depends on defense really.

Right, so if it does, and the defensive metrics are at best confused, you want to give him $60M over 4 years? If their budget is serious, then the money needs to be spent on better bets. Upton is marginally above average offensively.  That’s not a prudent plan for a corner OF. $15M a year for BJ Upton is, I’m sorry, insanity.

Justin, money wise in the years that matter for salary will probably cost as much as BJ

Huh? He has 3 years left on his contract - $9.7M for 2013, $14.25M for 2014 and $14.5M for 2015.  I’m not sure how the AAV gets credited when you trade a player with an existing contract, but assuming the worst, that’s an AAV of $12.8M for a 24 year old corner OF who has shown, over 5 full seasons, that his offensive floor is 7-10% better than average and could be as much as 30-40% better. BJ, on the other hand, seems to be trading on his 2007. Justin Upton is much better than BJ Upton. Is it worth the price in prospects? Depends on the price I guess. But I think I’d have a tough time not pulling that trigger.

I like the idea of Gordon. 

Seems like Gordon and Justin Upton are pretty comparable in terms of cost, so I’m not sure why you would want one and not the other.  Gordon’s owed a little less but has a reasonable option ($12.5M) so you can control him for a year longer than Upton.  Comparable offensive contributions, but Gordon is entering the prime age for offense while Upton might still be a little young for that (but who really knows with guys who are pros by 19.)  Gordon seems to be the better fielder by some of the metrics but, again, is older, so likely projects to decline while Upton may improve. Gordon’s a lefty and Upton’s a righty. KC or AZ, ok - may be that’s a difference. But they’re at least comparable.

I hope Cashman will grab Soria.  I know he likes him - I think they considered trading for him a few years back.  Give him a 2 year deal and lock in an elite closer for 2014 at a reasonable price.

[15] The issue with Pagan is he is 2 years older than Upton, and he’ll be 31 next year.  There’s a greater chance that you’ll get what you pay for in Upton than Pagan.  However, for certain cost/years is an issue.  If Upton’s going rate is 5/80 and Pagan’s is 3/30, sign Pagan.  I think if Pagan is 4/48 and Upton is 4/52, sign Upton.  Somewhere in between there is where it tips in Upton’s favor.  I don’t know at this point where that is.  Getting projections and hearing rumors of what actual offers are on the table will help figure that out.  Also, Tampa will definitely qualify Upton.  SF may not qualify Pagan.  That’s worth some amount of $$‘s there, too.

I think the issue with being aggressive with Melky is counter to getting him on the cheap for 1-2 years.  I mean, if you’re offering him 1/7, where’s the incentive?  He should likely be able to get that in January.  Now, if we wanted to get a bit creative…something like a 2 year contract guaranteeing $20M, but if he hits all his incentives/vests options (or picked up) could be worth 4/60?  Should protect the Yankees in case you sucks (unlikely but possible), and get Melky a lot of $$‘s if he plays well.  Plus potentially give the Yankees a discount if they structure the contract correctly.  I think some early thoughts pre-suspension had Melky’s floor of something like 5/75, maybe as high has 6 years/6 figures.

[18] I agree, on the Pagan/Upton thing. With Melky I think a lot of teams are going to be trying to get him on the cheap, if the Yankees really want him I think something along the lines of your hypothetical 2/20 with incentives is the best way to go (I’d cap it at 4/50 though).

[18] Also, Tampa will definitely qualify Upton.

Wow, forgot about this. This is even more reason for me to dislike Upton. $15M for a guy who had a sub-300 OBP! Come on man!

[18,19]

To make sure I got him, yeah, I’d go 2/$20M on Melky, with a 3rd year vesting option, or hell, a 3rd and 4th year vesting option. The key is a no trade clause. And no opt outs every year, please.

There’s no realistic chance of Rodriguez playing RF.

IDK, a week before Yankees acquired him I’d say there was no realistic way ARod would be playing 3rd for the Yankees.  Or that they would sign Teix AFTER signing CC/AJ.  Or that Eric Chavez would be starting in the ALCS over ARod.  I am 100% certain that if Headley could be had for a (relatively) cheap deal, ARod will be moved.  Maybe full-time DH, maybe RF.  I’m also 90% certain that Headley won’t come cheaply enough for that to happen, however.

It gets you a potentially high performing OF for 2014 which gives you the extra year

Yeah, there’s some value in that.  But it may be easier/better to get Hunter then, for short term.

15M a year for BJ Upton is, I’m sorry, insanity.

Really?  I mean, I’m a UZR fan, not everyone is.  And yeah, it’s a bet.  But all are.  And, Dave Cameron has been throwing out those kinds of numbers, and thinking the Yankees are a fit.  You may not agree with Dave, but I don’t think that’s insane at all.  Mike Axisa also thinks BJ is probably under-valued, so…

Justin Upton is much better than BJ Upton. Is it worth the price in prospects? Depends on the price I guess. But I think I’d have a tough time not pulling that trigger.

Yeah, I ended up looking more at actual $$‘s than AAV.  Part of how much it costs in $$‘s ends up being based on how much BJ goes for.  It’s certainly true that Upton is *likely* still a rising player, but it’s also possible that he’s not.  I guess one of the issues to me is…if AZ takes a little enough return that it doesn’t hamstring the Yankees in terms of player cost, then I wonder if they know something we don’t?  And if they still believe he’s that 5-6 win player going forward, I think the cost in players will be too much.

Seems like Gordon and Justin Upton are pretty comparable in terms of cost

Well, the extra year at the rate is a big deal.  Gordon also has back-to-back 7+ WAR years, better than Upton’s best year.  Upton has also been a bit up-and-down.  Could just be growing pains, could be a long-term issue; I think the team has some issues with his attitude?  So Gordon I think is more of a sure thing, and that extra year is a big deal.  I also think, that given that KC is probably still a few years away and AZ is close to contention, that Upton would cost more in prospects (and also the age difference).  Plus KC desperately needs young pitching, which is something Yankees still have, even if the highest quality young pitching hasn’t panned out.  Of course, when it gets down to who is ACTUALLY cheaper to acquire, who knows?

By the way, while I agree with j’s set up in general, I also fear a scenario where Cano insists on and actually GETS $25 million a year. I know that likely doesn’t change things THAT much (just $3 million less to spend a year) but those big contracts sure do add up quick.

[21] Really?  I mean, I’m a UZR fan, not everyone is.

I like UZR and I’m ok with value being in defense.  But I just can’t get past the traditional offensive numbers that he’s put up and are just terrible.  And don’t forget, the 2014 and 2015 Yankees have Robinson Cano nearing the end of his prime a mid-30s Teixeira and a nearing-40 Alex Rodriguez. We need an impact bat, and if one isn’t available, we need at least a stable, well rounded offensive player. BJ Upton is not that guy.

FWIW, I personally think BJ Upton’s OBP will scare Cashman away.

[22] You know, if that happens, or they sense that happening this year, I might be inclined to throw 4/$100M at Josh Hamilton and then trade Cano.  Lower overall commitment (probably by half), likely a lot production similar to Cano, and you get to leverage what prospects you have that are actually close to the majors (Adams and/or Joseph.) That’s sort of an off the rails idea.

[23] Yeah, it’s one thing to have a players like Gardner who is OK offensively and happens to accrue most of his value on defense, it’s a bit different when ALL of the player’s value is due to their defense.

But I just can’t get past the traditional offensive numbers that he’s put up and are just terrible.

No, his OBP last year was terrible.  That’s it.  His wRC+ - which remember no longer incluses SB - was 107.  For a CF, that’s very good.  For a RF it’s acceptable.  In fact, non-SB offense FG has him at +7.2 RAA last year.  About average for a corner OF, and he’s a CF.  Add in baserunning (4 runs) and defense he was worth 3.3 fWAR last year.  I think you’re putting too much stock into one bad year.  Granted, he hasn’t been GREAT at getting on base since 2008, but he hasn’t been horrible.

We need an impact bat, and if one isn’t available, we need at least a stable, well rounded offensive player. BJ Upton is not that guy.

No, he’s not.  But there are very few potential impact bats available on the FA market.  There are only 10 players (minimum 300PA) who are projected FA with a wRC+ > 120 (that’s an impact bat, right?)  One of them is Eric Chavez, I think he’s out.  One is Nick Swisher, he’s out too.  I think Hamilton is out, as is Ortiz.  Adam LaRoche may be available, but he’s a 1B.  Johnny Gomes is there, but I don’t think he’s an every day RF, do you?  Torii Hunter?  I’m fine signing him, but he’s a stop-gap.  Keppinger I’d be interested in too…as a UIF.  So we have left Ryan Ludwick and Melky.  I don’t think you’re advocating for Ludwick, and no one has shown the willingness to pay Melky, so…I’m actually coming around more to Melky as he’s got the age and the ability.  I’m a bit worried that he’ll revert to some bad habits in NYC.  But yeah, pay him.

Minus Melky though the options are trade which will be EXPENSIVE in terms of players.  Or sign…BJ Upton.

[25]For a RF it’s acceptable.  In fact, non-SB offense FG has him at +7.2 RAA last year.  About average for a corner OF, and he’s a CF.

So, acceptable costs $15M/year?

Or sign…BJ Upton.

Or, trade Cano and sign Hamilton for half (or less) than the contract the Cano would want.

So, acceptable costs $15M/year?

If he’s in CF, and his defense is average, he’s a 3-4 win player.  Theoretically he is in RF as well, correct?  B/c what he loses in position he gains in defense.  Isn’t $15M a year for a 3-4 win player acceptable on the FA market?  Seems reasonable.  Maybe it’s a bit too high, maybe it’s a bit too low.  Now, if you don’t think his defense is average (or won’t be above average in RF), that’s fine.  What do you think he’s worth?  Of course, this would be a lot easier with projections, which really aren’t out yet.  If CAIRO thinks he’s a 4 win player (assuming average defense) you’d probably feel differently.  And I’m sure I would if it feels he’s a 2 win player.

Or, trade Cano and sign Hamilton for half (or less) than the contract the Cano would want.

I wouldn’t touch Hamilton.  He seems to be having problems staying sober in Texas, and you want to drop him in the middle of NYC?  Not to mention he’s had some injury issues and isn’t a sure bet to stay healthy.  Also, that’s just transferring the hole.  Why not keep Cano and see what market develops, and play Mesa in RF then?  The more moving parts you add into the equation the tougher this is going to be to do.

FWIW, Dave Cameron in a chat just opined Pagan would go for 4/36.  I’m a bit leary of the 4th season given his age, but If Pagan is 4/36 my break-even for Upton would probably be something like 4/44.

If CAIRO thinks he’s a 4 win player (assuming average defense) you’d probably feel differently.  And I’m sure I would if it feels he’s a 2 win player.

Still tweaking CAIRO for 2013 but here’s how it projects B.J. Upton as a Yankee for next year. .246/.323/.446 in 640 PA, 20 runs above a replacement level CF on offense.  Haven’t done any defensive projections but I’m assuming he won’t be much better than average.

[11] I’m not a fan of BJ Upton at all.  We talk about his youth, what deal he’ll command, etc., but seem to gloss over his performance. He’s a sub 3-WAR (by BR) player at his peak who strikes out a lot. Hell, he got over 600 PA’s last year and had an OBP of .298. That’s not someone I want to give a 4 year deal to.

A realist among them. As I’ve said before, anyone giving him 4/50 is nuts. His best year was 2007. That’s 5 years ago.

A realist among them.

So does that make the rest of us imaginary or is it surreal?

[30] So CAIRO only has him around average?  Does that include baserunning?  If not that would add maybe 5 runs.  And yes, at best his defense is maybe +5 runs.  So he’s maybe 3 wins in 2013.  Obviously quite valuable, and at his age you wouldn’t expect much degradation in talent over a 4 year deal.  But maybe 3, 2.7, 2.2, 1.7 wins?  So between 9 and 10 wins.  I’d think over the course of the contract $5M/win is a good baseline, so a fair, 4 year deal would be probably 4/40.  That is, $45-$50M, but you always do a discount for multi-year deals.  Maybe add in $10M in incentives or something.  If he’s top-5 in the MVP in any year he’s probably worth a few million extra.

Maybe CAIRO turns out to be the low one and others have him higher, but yeah, it looks like I overestimated his worth.  I’d still be in for 4 years on him - get the rest of his prime years and ensure some stability in the OF - but wouldn’t go for more than the $44M tops.  Be aggressive and offer him 4/40 early, unless they’re willing to pay Melky like he’s played the last two years.  If he won’t go for 4/40 (and they aren’t into Melky)

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(33 Comments - 11/19/2014 7:44:43 pm)

NY Daily News: Yankees bullpen Brian Cashman’s top priority, following model of Kansas City Royals
(45 Comments - 11/18/2014 4:12:43 am)

TGS NY: Betances places third in Rookie of Year vote
(38 Comments - 11/17/2014 1:39:38 pm)

NY Post: Yankees’ offseason strategy is like high-stakes game of chicken
(39 Comments - 11/16/2014 11:17:12 pm)