Monday, January 7, 2013
Swapping Russ Canzler for Chris Dickerson
When I saw that the Yankees had picked up Russ Canzler off waivers I was intrigued. However, when it turned out to come at the likely loss of Chris Dickerson I was a bit less happy about it. But let’s take a look at what CAIRO thinks about the swap.
Here are Canzler’s CAIRO percentile forecasts.
| % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | GDP | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BRAR |
| 80% | 480 | 435 | 60 | 119 | 32 | 3 | 20 | 67 | 5 | 2 | 49 | 111 | 6 | 6 | .274 | .362 | .500 | .376 | 75 | 20 |
| 65% | 440 | 398 | 52 | 104 | 27 | 2 | 16 | 57 | 4 | 2 | 42 | 107 | 7 | 4 | .261 | .340 | .462 | .351 | 60 | 10 |
| Baseline | 400 | 362 | 44 | 90 | 22 | 1 | 13 | 49 | 3 | 3 | 35 | 102 | 8 | 3 | .248 | .319 | .425 | .326 | 47 | 1 |
| 35% | 360 | 326 | 36 | 76 | 18 | 1 | 10 | 41 | 2 | 4 | 29 | 97 | 8 | 2 | .235 | .298 | .387 | .300 | 36 | -6 |
| 20% | 320 | 290 | 30 | 64 | 14 | 0 | 8 | 33 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 90 | 8 | 1 | .221 | .276 | .349 | .275 | 26 | -11 |
And here are Dickerson’s.
| % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | GDP | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BRAR |
| 80% | 480 | 417 | 76 | 118 | 28 | 4 | 14 | 47 | 27 | 3 | 65 | 112 | 5 | 6 | .283 | .393 | .473 | .384 | 80 | 24 |
| 65% | 440 | 382 | 66 | 103 | 23 | 3 | 11 | 40 | 23 | 4 | 56 | 108 | 6 | 5 | .269 | .370 | .436 | .359 | 64 | 14 |
| Baseline | 400 | 347 | 56 | 89 | 19 | 2 | 9 | 33 | 19 | 4 | 47 | 103 | 7 | 3 | .256 | .348 | .399 | .333 | 51 | 5 |
| 35% | 360 | 313 | 47 | 76 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 15 | 5 | 39 | 98 | 8 | 2 | .242 | .325 | .362 | .308 | 39 | -3 |
| 20% | 320 | 278 | 39 | 63 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 11 | 5 | 32 | 91 | 8 | 1 | .229 | .302 | .325 | .283 | 28 | -9 |
In a vacuum over 400 PA, Canzler doesn’t project as well as Dickerson. Of course, with an all left-handed starting OF, the more important consideration is their respective projected platoon splits.
| Canzler | Dickerson | |||
| % | wOBA vs L | wOBA vs R | wOBA vs L | wOBA vs R |
| 80% | .392 | .370 | .355 | .390 |
| 65% | .366 | .345 | .331 | .364 |
| Baseline | .339 | .320 | .308 | .338 |
| 35% | .313 | .295 | .284 | .312 |
| 20% | .286 | .270 | .261 | .287 |
In terms of runs, over 250 PA Canzler’s projected wOBA of .339 vs. LHP would be worth about 7 runs more than Dickerson’s projected wOBA of .308. Dickerson’s almost certainly the better defender and baserunner and could play CF, but the Yankees already have three outfielders that can play CF. The fact that Canzler can play the OF corners as well as 3B and 1B behind Kevin Youkilis whose health is a pretty significant concern in and of itself probably makes Canzler a more valuable piece of the roster.
Obviously we’re dealing with projectons and the inherent limitations therein, so there are huge error bars around all of this. So keep that in mind.
I’d like to see Dickerson get a chance somewhere (seems like a no-brainer for Houston) and think he’ll do pretty well if he gets that chance, but it seems to me that this was a pretty good move on its face.
Comments
[0] Of course, with an all left-handed starting OF, the more important consideration is their respective projected platoon splits.
But, it seems that a platoon of Canzler and Dickerson is better than Ichiro.
Yeah, but that’s not a viable option.
A marginal improvement or they just canzler each other out.
nyuk
nyuk
nyuk…
Holy crap, I was JUST WONDERING what Mel was going to say about this…
If I can make fun of his name, that is a point in his favor. I need things like that to distract me from Youk’s face in the coming season…
Canzler’s versatility, combined with that of Nunez and Nix (and members of teh starting lineup), basically means the Yankees have two backups for every position on the field. That and 96 wins will get you a playoffs spot.
Was anyone else surprised to see that Nix did not get picked up by any other team? Good for the Yankees, though.
Isn’t there some new research on the value of positional flexibility in roster construction? Too lazy to Google.
[8] Not research but speculation.
Interestingly, the internet search turned up an article on why Montero should not be catching.
On Fangraphs there is a belated remembrance of Matsui:
It was a wonderful late-season pitching duel between Yankees Legend Chad Gaudin and Blue Jays hero Brian Tallet. In the bottom of the eighth, with one out and Alex Rodriguez on first, Matsui came to the plate with southpaw reliever Scott Downs on the mound. Godzilla launched a Downs curveball into the seats to tie the game up. While Lovable Catcher Francisco Cervelli actually ended up with the game-winning hit in the bottom of the ninth, Matsui’s homer was the bigger swing in Win Probability (.375) due to the situation.
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