The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Still Way Too Early and Mostly Useless 2012 Projected Standings

I was goofing around with the second wild card thing in my simulator and ran an updated set of still way too early and mostly useless projected standings.  I think I liked the last set better.

The same disclaimers from the last set apply here and you can read them by clicking the link in the previous paragraph, so I’m not going to repeat them.  In summary, ignore these if you don’t like them.

Div Team W L RS RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
AL East
1 BOS 93.7 68.3 872 733 43.8% 20.85% 12.82% 77.44%
2 NYA 93.0 69.0 859 742 38.9% 19.58% 13.74% 72.24%
3 TAM 88.9 73.1 733 651 17.0% 15.37% 13.38% 45.71%
4 TOR 77.9 84.1 770 798 0.4% 1.13% 3.31% 4.79%
5 BAL 64.8 97.2 717 885 0.0% 0.00% 0.06% 0.06%
AL Central
1 DET 88.9 73.1 785 702 63.2% 1.78% 14.80% 79.74%
2 CLE 85.0 77.0 749 706 30.6% 3.40% 9.19% 43.14%
3 CHA 75.7 86.3 707 789 4.2% 0.15% 1.82% 6.12%
4 KC 73.5 88.5 682 755 1.8% 0.05% 0.64% 2.44%
5 MIN 67.4 94.6 715 850 0.4% 0.00% 0.06% 0.46%
AL West
1 TEX 94.1 67.9 817 680 52.9% 16.77% 14.32% 83.94%
2 LAA 93.3 68.7 746 637 46.2% 18.67% 12.96% 77.83%
3 SEA 76.5 85.5 658 697 0.9% 1.30% 2.57% 4.72%
4 OAK 74.0 88.0 650 713 0.1% 0.95% 0.93% 1.98%
WC1 93.4
WC2 90.4
Div Team W L RS RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
NL East
1 PHI 92.7 69.3 702 603 64.4% 11.32% 8.43% 84.11%
2 ATL 86.8 75.2 715 671 20.7% 19.83% 10.72% 51.24%
3 WAS 82.4 79.6 674 655 7.3% 9.83% 7.96% 25.07%
4 FLA 81.6 80.4 715 703 6.5% 7.28% 7.39% 21.16%
5 NYN 76.2 85.8 669 717 1.3% 1.54% 2.25% 5.07%
NL Central Team
1 STL 90.3 71.7 743 650 53.1% 11.63% 9.61% 74.36%
2 CIN 86.4 75.6 714 665 25.1% 12.02% 12.56% 49.71%
3 MIL 85.8 76.2 696 660 21.3% 12.96% 8.46% 42.75%
4 CHN 70.5 91.5 652 755 0.4% 0.50% 0.16% 1.01%
5 PIT 69.2 92.9 655 760 0.1% 0.08% 0.11% 0.24%
6 HOU 57.9 104.1 572 779 0.0% 0.00% 0.01% 0.01%
NL West Team
1 SF 85.5 76.5 667 627 40.1% 4.83% 11.28% 56.16%
2 ARI 85.4 76.6 668 635 39.6% 4.48% 11.24% 55.36%
3 COL 79.3 82.7 767 784 10.4% 1.62% 4.36% 16.34%
4 SD 76.8 85.2 641 667 5.3% 0.94% 3.87% 10.10%
5 LAN 76.5 85.5 626 666 4.7% 1.13% 2.21% 8.01%
WC1 90.3
WC2 87.7

Div: Percentage of times team won division
WC 1: Percentage of times team won first wild card
WC 2: Percentage of times team won second wild card

Nothing would make me happier than Houston winning the second wild card and going all the way.  Maybe then the second wild card thing will die before completely ruining baseball.

--Posted at 10:05 am by SG / 35 Comments | - (0)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

For the next simuation with WC2, would it be hard to count how many times a team with a record of .500 or below enters the playoffs/wins the world series?

So the relievers Boston got improved their RA by 30 runs?  Boston run scoring is basically flat between the two sims, and Yankees run scoring/allowing is basically flat, so that’s the difference.  I’m just surprised they make that much of a difference is all…I guess if the guys they were replacing were RL or worse, and reliever chaining and all…

Did you also include Adruw Jones for the Yanks?  Surprised they lost 3RS if you did…

I can count # of times a team with a record of <=.500 goes in, but I don’t run the playoffs.  I can probably cobble something together with my playoff simulator though.

In 1000 seasons, the low wins for the second AL wild card were:

81
79
81

For the NL they were:

80
81
81
81
81
81
80

So the relievers Boston got improved their RA by 30 runs?

Not quite. Getting Bailey and Melancon means it’s more likely they will put Bard and Aceves in the rotation.  Adjusting their projections to starters and giving them 160 and 130 innings in the rotation plus the two relievers plus adding a better defensive RF in Sweeney improves them by 30 runs.

Yankees do have Jones, but Toronto shored up their pen and picked up two wins and between that and Boston improving and Texas and the Angels projecting a bit better it makes the Yankees seem like they fell slightly.  They didn’t really, the league just got a bit better around them.

You think Bud Selig tries to ruin baseball so people will look back fondly on the steroid era?

[4] Ah okay.  Makes sense.  Most people I read don’t seem to believe in the idea of Bard as a starter, but CAIRO would have to treat him like any other pitcher, so…

Out of curiousity, what did you do for PT for ARod?  And what would it do (not the sim obviously, but ballbark) if you put him down for 150 games instead?  Not that I expect that, but curious how much of an impact a healthy ARod would make…

Torre looking to buy the Dodgers.  (attempted to include the ESPN link to the story but that is apparently “blacklisted”.  No joke).

Also, they are going to sign a back up for A-Rod at some point.  Be it Chavez, Nakajima, or someone else.  Even if he doesn’t play 150, that should give them some boost over what they have now.

Out of curiousity, what did you do for PT for ARod?  And what would it do (not the sim obviously, but ballbark) if you put him down for 150 games instead?

111 games, 479 PA, mostly 3B with a bit of DH.  If I give him 150 games and 650 PA, the Yankees get 10 more runs. So about a win I guess.

FWIW, 4.9% of all age 36 seasons by position players have been seasons in which the player played in 150+ games.

[7] Potentially.  Chavez sounds like won’t be much above replacement.  IDK who else would be available for the role (outside of Nakajima) that would be any kind of upgrade.  I’m all for giving Brandon Laird the opportunity out of ST.  If he can control the strike zone a bit, I think he can be a benefit as a 5th OF, backup 3B/1B, and a righty power-bat off the bench (yes they could use a lefty, but Chavez isn’t a power-bat any longer).  Best case, he plays well and they can start phasing ARod off of 3rd.  Worst case, he absolutely sucks and they upgrade mid-season; potentially with Joseph or Adams.

[8] Okay thanks.  No, I’m definitely not expecting him to play 150 games.  130 - about 5 more runs - would be great.  Just was curious.

I’m hoping the second wild card is not only below .500, but so far below that when they win the Series they’re still below .500.

Also, they are going to sign a back up for A-Rod at some point.

I’d be suprised if they were able to sign a backup for 3B that would out-produce Nunez at this point.  Chavez doesn’t project well, and I think A-Rod’s backup needs to be someone who can play for two straight weeks, something that Chavez might be 50/50 to do.

The issue is going to be if they need to backup 2 of Jeter/Cano/A-Rod at some point, which puts us into the Ramiro zone.

I think Nunez with Laird waiting in AAA is probably the best way to proceed if they’re unwilling to sign Nakajima.

And don’t get hung up on the fact that Boston projects 0.7 wins better than the Yankees.  This assumes successful transitions to the rotation for both Bard and Aceves, and that may be wishful thinking.

I think Nunez with Laird waiting in AAA is probably the best way to proceed if they’re unwilling to sign Nakajima

Why wouldn’t both Laird and Nunez be on the roster at the same time?  Same 8 position-player starters, Montero replaces Posada at DH, Cervelli is still the backup C, Laird replaces Chavez, Nunez still backup UIF, Jones still 4th OF.  Right?  Yes, I like.  Laird may not be all that much…or he may be a Robinson Cano light.  That is, better than expected, and producing 2-3 WAR instead of 4-6.

And don’t get hung up on the fact that Boston projects 0.7 wins better than the Yankees.  This assumes successful transitions to the rotation for both Bard and Aceves, and that may be wishful thinking.

I’m certainly not.  I was just curious where the 30 runs came from, and a few other tidbits.

Why wouldn’t both Laird and Nunez be on the roster at the same time?

I’d expect the Yankees primary backup IF to play somewhat regularly.  I don’t think that’s true for the rest of the bench.  I was thinking Laird would be better off playing every day than sitting on the bench waiting for the occasional AB. I’d like to see him get his OBP at AAA in the .340 area before thinking he’s ready to hit in MLB.  He’s got enough power to be a useful bench player even if he’s got a below average OBP but a career .284 OBP in AAA doesn’t make me optimistic about his near-term future.

I’m certainly not.

That was more of a general note to anyone who may have seen the flip-flop from the last run, not directed at you specifically.  It’s probably helpful to know some of the assumptions behind why things changed from the last run.  I just didn’t feel like doing a big writeup with so much likely to change in the next two months.

FWIW, 4.9% of all age 36 seasons by position players have been seasons in which the player played in 150+ games.

By the way, this is an amazing stat.  Probably a little misleading because I’m sure there are a ton of bench players in there but still an amazing way to look at the kind of luck needed for the older players to stay healthy.

I’m hung up on the fact that Boston projects .7 wins better than us.  Not much else to do in prison, for one thing.  Also it appears we may pay a price for our inaction if it continues.

Want the second wild card to go away? All it will take is the Yankees winning the WS after “backing in” to the playoffs as the second wild card. Selig would instantly abolish it.

[15] 0.7 of a win is like, 7 runs on defense. Hell, we can make that up just by doing whatever it takes to not play Nunez. The errors alone should take care of it. E/9 for Nunez, I’m setting the over/under at 1.2

[16] It would be the first WS crown ever vacated due to a secret clause in the new CBA.

[15]  Don’t worry, Mel.  These statistics are stupid.  It’s impossible to win .7 of a game.  QED.

Thanks, guys.  Feel better now.

Happy New Year!

The Knicks: getting me pumped for Spring Training since 2001.

16 retroactively?

All I can say is, if these are the projections tweaked to make the Yankees look better, how bad are they going to be in real life?

Also, could some type of caucus system be used to weed out Ramiro Pena.

Reds sign Brackman to ML deal.  They’re just the wild and crazy org, right?  They’ll do any goofy shit!

Would anyone have been interested in Carlos Zambrano for $3 million (with the Cubs eating the rest of his $18 million contract) and a mediocre prospect?

Hell no.  Zambrano projects around as well as A.J. in pinstripes without the good teammate cachet.  Apparently his long-time pitching coach was also not interested, since I’d assume the Yankees asked Rothchild about him and didn’t get a favorable report.

My Cubs fan friend tells me that Chicago is breathing a sigh of relief now that Theo has unloaded him.

Seriously, they traded him and all of his salary for a pitcher who isn’t very good and is not cheap.  If someone’s giving something away like that, run away.

I guess the Marlins think the Guillen thing gives them a chance to make it work, and Volstad is nothing special so they aren’t losing anything by giving it a whirl.

Who says he has to pitch?  You’re not considering his bat.  That’s worth like 1 WAR in itself.  He could be A-Rod’s backup at 3b.  I’m sure he can hit and field better than Nunez.

I’d expect the Yankees primary backup IF to play somewhat regularly.

I guess I read the “fail to sign Nakajima” as, “fail to sign a veteran IF”.  So instead you’re saying if they fail to sign Nakajima, instead sign some other veteran (Chavez probably)?  I’m down with that.  As long as the player they’re signing isn’t below replacement just to have a veteran.

Zambrano projects around as well as A.J. in pinstripes without the good teammate cachet.

Yeah, those pies wouldn’t be whipped-cream…

As long as the player they’re signing isn’t below replacement just to have a veteran.

I’d think they’d just go with Pena in lieu of signing a replacement-level veteran at this point.

I am enormously frustrated with the off-season, sexually and otherwise.

[32] I hope so.  Though if they go with Pena, I think I’d rather Laird in the majors and Pena as the backup in AAA.  Though I can see some benefit to letting Laird develop further in the minors, I’m not sure if this year - where the team has no home - is the best for developing players in AAA.

[31] Moo…

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