This seems about right for the Yanks. Detroit’s projection seems pretty pessimistic. I would think they will run away with the division, even before getting Fielder.

I can’t remember what the projections were with CAIRO, but I was expecting the Angels to be better. I think those guys over at HH think they’ll win 100 games.

Cincinnati has the highest probability of making the playoffs??!??

Shocking and bold prediction: whatever the lineup looks like on opening day, Miguel Cabrera will not play 120 games at third base next year, unless by “play” you mean reach as a hitter.

Boston’s projection seems based only on how good their players are. Shouldn’t it also punish them for folding like a beach chair last season?

Detroit’s projection does seem low.

Shouldn’t it also punish them for folding like a beach chair last season?

With what kind of frequency would this have to recur to be considered a “skill”?

Looks like Toronto would have a good shot of winning the Central.  And, conversely, if Detroit moved to the East, there’s a shot they’d finish 4th.  That doesn’t feel right. 

If Oakland beats out Texas and LAAAAA, they’ll have to make a sequel movie.  Working title:  WTF?!?!

It just seems odd to have a projection with the best team in the league at only 92 wins.

I can’t remember what the projections were with CAIRO, but I was expecting the Angels to be better. I think those guys over at HH think they’ll win 100 games.

With the same depth charts used in these but run with CAIRO, I have the Angels at around 92 wins, Rangers at 93.

Cincinnati has the highest probability of making the playoffs??!??

I think having Latos projected to do what he did in San Diego in Cincinnati is a big part of that.  But they did add two very good relievers as well.  CAIRO has St. Louis at 89 wins and the Reds at 87, FWIW.

Detroit’s projection does seem low.

I think so too, but I understand why it’s happening.  Prince Fielder projects as around 15-20 runs better than Victor Martinez, but the defensive hit of putting Miguel Cabrera at 3B costs them more than that on paper.  You have to figure if that’s how things will play out they won’t play Cabrera at 3B all year, so they should be a bit better than this projection. 

It just seems odd to have a projection with the best team in the league at only 92 wins.

Remember, these are averages with a projection that regresses heavily towards the mean.  All those minor leaguers who haven’t played much in MLB but will be playing a lot in 2012 are projected as close to average, so you have more parity.

—-It just seems odd to have a projection with the best team in the league at only 92 wins.—-

To piggy back on SG’s comment, I think that going into a season, you can have several teams bunched up in the 88-92 “true talent” range, and then inevitably a couple of them get “lucky” throughout the season.  So, every season, we see 95ish wins, and we expect that to be the true measure of the “best” team in the league.

Hope for Houston!

I like rooting for the best team because of the feeling of moral superiority thereby bestowed on me and Ugly Johnny Dickshot.  We need it.

Unless I am very much mistaken, it looks like Marcel just takes CAIRO and changes the underlying assumptions to make the Astros look better.

I like to think I have amoral superiority.

What was Seattle’s record without Montero? 2-160?

old thurm, if you’re reading this, I let SG know you were having problems and I think he fixed it.  Your post from two threads ago is now visible.

[13] Everyone in Hollywood does.

13:Frank Gallagher for instance also.

I think having Latos projected to do what he did in San Diego in Cincinnati is a big part of that.

So is this a product of Marcel not park adjusting?  Latos’ Petco numbers carrying over?  And is it kind of surprising that Marcel has Cards with 5 less wins than CAIRO?

Are these Tango’s Marcels for 2012? He has only released 2011 on his site.

Are these Tango’s Marcels for 2012? He has only released 2011 on his site.

No, I ran these myself using Python code that Jeff Sackmann(of Minor League Splits fame) provided to run Marcel for any year(s).

I’ve watched Hong Shih Kuo a number of times.  The guy is filthy, but he’s had five elbow surgeries and, due to an anxiety disorder, needs to play in a pastoral setting like Ann of Green Gables, Rebecca of Sunny Brook farms or Mel of Joliet Yard.  Accordingly, I recommend the Yankees sign him at 2/10m.

“What this shows is that on average a team needed 96 wins to win the AL East, etc.,.”

Considering the second place team in the AL East won 91 games doesn’t that mean 92 wins is what it would take to win the division on average?

Considering the second place team in the AL East won 91 games doesn’t that mean 92 wins is what it would take to win the division on average?

But if the average first place team won four fewer games somebody would have to pick up those wins, and it just might be the second place team in some cases.

So is this a product of Marcel not park adjusting?  Latos’ Petco numbers carrying over? 

Basically.  PETCO has suppressed run scoring by about 8% over the last three years, whereas Great American Ballpark has boosted it by about 6%.  So all things being equal, you’d expect Latos to give up more runs.  The impact may not be as big as a straight .92 -> 1.06, but even with regression towards the mean you’d expect him to give up a few more runs than he would have if he was still in San Diego.

Same thing with guys like Kuroda and Pineda moving to a more difficult environment to pitch in, stuff like that.

And is it kind of surprising that Marcel has Cards with 5 less wins than CAIRO?

Not really. Those wins went to some of the teams that project more favorably in Marcel, teams like Houston.

Making the big time SG.  Rob Neyer linked to these in a post yesterday!