The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Saturday, January 28, 2012

Still Too Early 2012 MLB Standings Projection

Instead of running these with CAIRO this time I used Marcel, mainly out of curiosity in seeing what an unbiased projection that was not created to make the Yankees look better than they are would say.

It says this.

Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
AL East NYA 92 70 785 682 45.3% 20.3% 10.4% 76.0%
AL East BOS 90 72 830 750 27.9% 26.1% 10.8% 64.8%
AL East TAM 88 74 717 646 23.7% 21.2% 12.2% 57.1%
AL East TOR 81 81 723 727 3.0% 6.9% 6.8% 16.7%
AL East BAL 70 92 694 806 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3%
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
AL Central DET 84 78 747 708 43.0% 2.4% 10.1% 55.4%
AL Central CLE 83 79 722 708 30.6% 2.9% 7.8% 41.3%
AL Central CHA 79 83 686 703 15.2% 1.5% 4.2% 20.9%
AL Central KC 79 83 691 714 10.8% 1.9% 4.1% 16.9%
AL Central MIN 68 94 693 813 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5%
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
AL West LAA 87 75 719 663 43.7% 6.1% 11.4% 61.2%
AL West TEX 87 75 765 707 38.2% 6.9% 13.4% 58.6%
AL West OAK 82 80 682 674 14.9% 3.1% 7.4% 25.3%
AL West SEA 76 86 649 689 3.2% 0.7% 1.6% 5.5%
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
NL East PHI 90 72 689 615 44.8% 16.5% 10.7% 72.0%
NL East ATL 89 73 668 608 38.2% 19.2% 9.9% 67.3%
NL East WAS 83 79 645 634 10.8% 10.3% 8.1% 29.2%
NL East FLA 80 82 682 690 5.7% 5.2% 5.4% 16.3%
NL East NYN 74 88 630 680 0.6% 1.5% 1.2% 3.2%
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
NL Central CIN 89 73 719 647 60.4% 8.4% 10.9% 79.7%
NL Central STL 84 78 708 681 24.6% 10.7% 7.0% 42.2%
NL Central MIL 81 81 678 672 13.1% 6.7% 7.7% 27.5%
NL Central PIT 72 90 657 732 1.6% 0.2% 1.0% 2.8%
NL Central CHN 70 92 668 761 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 1.0%
NL Central HOU 66 96 617 749 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Div Team W L RF RA Div WC 1 WC 2 PL%
NL West COL 85 77 749 711 32.1% 6.4% 10.9% 49.4%
NL West ARI 85 77 685 656 30.8% 7.3% 10.8% 48.9%
NL West SF 85 77 629 606 29.6% 5.4% 11.3% 46.3%
NL West LAN 76 86 618 659 4.1% 1.5% 2.7% 8.2%
NL West SD 75 87 608 653 3.4% 0.6% 2.5% 6.4%

Div: Percent of time team won division
WC 1: Percent of time team won first wild card
WC 2: Percent of time team won second wild card

We still don’t know if there will be a second wild card yet, so you can chop off that column and subtract that percentage from the team’s over playoff percentage. 

Because Marcel regresses more heavily than other projections and because it assumes every one who hasn’t played in MLB projects as league average, you see a tighter spread here than you’ll see in other projected standings.  The standard deviation for team wins in my last CAIRO projections was about 9.  In this version it’s 7.1.  That may be more realistic if you think about how little we really know about how good/bad players and teams are, even though what will actually happen in 2012 will show a much bigger spread more in line with other projected standings.

Here are the average win totals for the placings in each division and for the two wild cards.

Div Place Avg W
AL East 1 96
AL East 2 91
AL East 3 86
AL East 4 80
AL East 5 69
Div Avg W
AL Central 1 89
AL Central 2 83
AL Central 3 79
AL Central 4 75
AL Central 5 67
Div Avg W
AL West 1 92
AL West 2 86
AL West 3 81
AL West 4 74
AL WC 1 91
AL WC2 88
Div Avg W
NL East 1 94
NL East 2 88
NL East 3 83
NL East 4 78
NL East 5 72
Div Avg W
NL Central 1 92
NL Central 2 85
NL Central 3 80
NL Central 4 74
NL Central 5 69
NL Central 6 63
Div Avg W
NL West 1 91
NL West 2 85
NL West 3 81
NL West 4 77
NL West 5 71
NL WC1 89
NL WC2 87

What this shows is that on average a team needed 96 wins to win the AL East, etc.,.

Some obvious things to consider would be:

- the difference between Yu Darvish (and other imports) and a league average pitcher
- prospects who project better than league average
- players who switched to parks that will affect their projections since Marcel does not park-adjust

Despite all that, the ordinal rankings seem reasonable.  The only differences between this and CAIRO in that regard are that I have St. Louis ahead of Cincinnati and the Diamondbacks and Giants ahead of Colorado.

This is current through Francisco Cordero signing with Toronto, and assumes Prince Fielder at 1B and Miguel Cabrera playing a terrible version of 3B for Detroit in 70% of their games, and DHing in 25% of them. 

--Posted at 8:19 am by SG / 25 Comments | - (0)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

This seems about right for the Yanks. Detroit’s projection seems pretty pessimistic. I would think they will run away with the division, even before getting Fielder.

I can’t remember what the projections were with CAIRO, but I was expecting the Angels to be better. I think those guys over at HH think they’ll win 100 games.

Cincinnati has the highest probability of making the playoffs??!??

Shocking and bold prediction: whatever the lineup looks like on opening day, Miguel Cabrera will not play 120 games at third base next year, unless by “play” you mean reach as a hitter.

Boston’s projection seems based only on how good their players are. Shouldn’t it also punish them for folding like a beach chair last season?

Detroit’s projection does seem low.

Shouldn’t it also punish them for folding like a beach chair last season?

With what kind of frequency would this have to recur to be considered a “skill”?

Looks like Toronto would have a good shot of winning the Central.  And, conversely, if Detroit moved to the East, there’s a shot they’d finish 4th.  That doesn’t feel right. 

If Oakland beats out Texas and LAAAAA, they’ll have to make a sequel movie.  Working title:  WTF?!?!

It just seems odd to have a projection with the best team in the league at only 92 wins.

I can’t remember what the projections were with CAIRO, but I was expecting the Angels to be better. I think those guys over at HH think they’ll win 100 games.

With the same depth charts used in these but run with CAIRO, I have the Angels at around 92 wins, Rangers at 93.

Cincinnati has the highest probability of making the playoffs??!??

I think having Latos projected to do what he did in San Diego in Cincinnati is a big part of that.  But they did add two very good relievers as well.  CAIRO has St. Louis at 89 wins and the Reds at 87, FWIW.

Detroit’s projection does seem low.

I think so too, but I understand why it’s happening.  Prince Fielder projects as around 15-20 runs better than Victor Martinez, but the defensive hit of putting Miguel Cabrera at 3B costs them more than that on paper.  You have to figure if that’s how things will play out they won’t play Cabrera at 3B all year, so they should be a bit better than this projection. 

It just seems odd to have a projection with the best team in the league at only 92 wins.

Remember, these are averages with a projection that regresses heavily towards the mean.  All those minor leaguers who haven’t played much in MLB but will be playing a lot in 2012 are projected as close to average, so you have more parity.

—-It just seems odd to have a projection with the best team in the league at only 92 wins.—-

To piggy back on SG’s comment, I think that going into a season, you can have several teams bunched up in the 88-92 “true talent” range, and then inevitably a couple of them get “lucky” throughout the season.  So, every season, we see 95ish wins, and we expect that to be the true measure of the “best” team in the league.

I like rooting for the best team because of the feeling of moral superiority thereby bestowed on me and Ugly Johnny Dickshot.  We need it.

Unless I am very much mistaken, it looks like Marcel just takes CAIRO and changes the underlying assumptions to make the Astros look better.

I like to think I have amoral superiority.

What was Seattle’s record without Montero? 2-160?

old thurm, if you’re reading this, I let SG know you were having problems and I think he fixed it.  Your post from two threads ago is now visible.

[13] Everyone in Hollywood does.

13:Frank Gallagher for instance also.

I think having Latos projected to do what he did in San Diego in Cincinnati is a big part of that.

So is this a product of Marcel not park adjusting?  Latos’ Petco numbers carrying over?  And is it kind of surprising that Marcel has Cards with 5 less wins than CAIRO?

Are these Tango’s Marcels for 2012? He has only released 2011 on his site.

Are these Tango’s Marcels for 2012? He has only released 2011 on his site.

No, I ran these myself using Python code that Jeff Sackmann(of Minor League Splits fame) provided to run Marcel for any year(s).

I’ve watched Hong Shih Kuo a number of times.  The guy is filthy, but he’s had five elbow surgeries and, due to an anxiety disorder, needs to play in a pastoral setting like Ann of Green Gables, Rebecca of Sunny Brook farms or Mel of Joliet Yard.  Accordingly, I recommend the Yankees sign him at 2/10m.

“What this shows is that on average a team needed 96 wins to win the AL East, etc.,.”

Considering the second place team in the AL East won 91 games doesn’t that mean 92 wins is what it would take to win the division on average?

Considering the second place team in the AL East won 91 games doesn’t that mean 92 wins is what it would take to win the division on average?

But if the average first place team won four fewer games somebody would have to pick up those wins, and it just might be the second place team in some cases.

So is this a product of Marcel not park adjusting?  Latos’ Petco numbers carrying over? 

Basically.  PETCO has suppressed run scoring by about 8% over the last three years, whereas Great American Ballpark has boosted it by about 6%.  So all things being equal, you’d expect Latos to give up more runs.  The impact may not be as big as a straight .92 -> 1.06, but even with regression towards the mean you’d expect him to give up a few more runs than he would have if he was still in San Diego.

Same thing with guys like Kuroda and Pineda moving to a more difficult environment to pitch in, stuff like that.

And is it kind of surprising that Marcel has Cards with 5 less wins than CAIRO?

Not really. Those wins went to some of the teams that project more favorably in Marcel, teams like Houston.

Making the big time SG.  Rob Neyer linked to these in a post yesterday!

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