Agree that the lifetime saves record isn’t that key. I wouldn’t be surprised if that record is broken.

Mo’s records that are more amazing are his lifetime ERA+ over so many innings and his post-season and World Series results.  These will never be matched IMHO.

SG, would you take David Robertson over Mo right now, given that Robertson’s ERA is 1.19 and Mo’s is 2.09?

Ehh, I look at saves like wins. Wins are a stupid stat, but if you’ve got a career where you are just piling up wins (or saves), you’ve probably been doing something right for a long time.

When I’m an old fart, I’ll be telling nieces and nephews (and possibly children of) that I saw the great Rivera in his prime. Wait a minute… I am an old fart!

SG, would you take David Robertson over Mo right now, given that Robertson’s ERA is 1.19 and Mo’s is 2.09?

I wouldn’t focus on ERA.  At this point Robertson’s got better stuff than Mo, and he’s had a better statistical season.  I am not crazy about his walks, and he’s allowed HR on 2.6% of his flyballs compared to around 9% in his career entering this season. 

Because of that, we probably need to assume Robertson’s not quite this good.  Is he more like a true 2.00 ERA guy?  a 2.25 ERA guy?  A 2.50 ERA?  He’s at 2.72 over the last three years, and I think he’s made some improvements as reflected in a slightly better K rate and slightly better BB rate.  His GB% is also up a bit, which will probably help if that HR/FB rate starts to creep back up.

Mo is 41.  I do feel less confident with him out there now than I have in the past, but that doesn’t mean much.  If Robertson’s better, I doubt it’s more than say 0.25 in ERA/RA better.

How about this.  I’d take Robertson in a situation where you needed a strikeout badly but could afford a walk.  In theory, you can use Robertson in more critical situations, ie cleaning up Soriano’s messes or bailing out a starter when Girardi inevitably leaves them in to long.

I’d take Mo with the bases loaded if you need to get out of a mess.  He’s less likely to allow a runner to reach (.93 WHIP compared to 1.13 WHIP for Robertson).

Clean inning, I’m fine with either.  But if you had to get one guy out for all the marbles, and you’re only looking at 2011 data:

OBP vs. Robertson: .276
OBP vs. Mo: .252

SG

“I do think the higher babip is more than just luck”

Zero statistically significant evidence for this opinion correct? Seems unlikely to me that other peripherals have remained the same but ability to surpress babip has waned?

(in a related point it is quite possible (likely?) that while he has an ability to surpress babip throughout career, the actal amount of suppression was somewhat lucky.

Zero statistically significant evidence for this opinion correct?

Correct.  Just my opinion based on the type of contact hitters have made against him in games.  Just eyeballing, LD% is up from 2010 but it was higher in 2009.  GB% is down a bit, and he’s given up one additional HR.  The problem with Mo is the sample sizes are always small so we don’t know what’s meaningful and what’s noise.

(in a related point it is quite possible (likely?) that while he has an ability to surpress babip throughout career, the actal amount of suppression was somewhat lucky.

Yes.  The league average pitcher in Mo’s career has allowed a .304 BABIP and Rivera’s at .262 for his career.  I think that’s two standard deviations from the mean, and possibly indicates some luck.

Agree that the lifetime saves record isn’t that key. I wouldn’t be surprised if that record is broken.

Yeah, it wouldn’t be surprising.  Although the list of closers that maintain effectiveness for a significant number of years is fairly short.

Mo probably has a good chance to hold the record for most saves with one franchise though.

[7] And most postseason saves.

So, it appears that at least one of their draft picks has panned out so far. Small sample size, blah, blah, blah. But at least he isn’t a bust YET.

http://riveraveblues.com/2011/09/dante-bichette-jr-named-gcl-mvp-56039/

[9] Imagine if they’d also held onto their first round pick in this year’s draft…

[10] I hate Soriano as much as anyone in the world, but I have to say that I appear to be in a much better mood than most of you guys are these days. Their second round draft choice is hitting like a top ten pick. Glass half full.

I mean…I realize you are kind of kidding. But still, lately the complaint threads are getting a little out of hand given how well this season has gone relative to expectations.

Don’t get me wrong, I am very excited about how well DBJ is hitting, but I am pretty sure the site has a policy of not passing up opportunities to make fun of the Sorikneelo signing. Just following site rules.

Yeah, I often also violate the rule that says that you have to blame somebody in the front office for any disappointing development that in any way involves Joba or Fuse. Also, I guess there will now be a new rule that says that any time Montero does something well we have to bemoan the fact that the Yankees have clearly destroyed his trade value by starting Romine over him at catcher for one game in September. If I fail to follow that one I guess I am just begging to get banned.

But I love you guys!