The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:

Sunday, February 11, 2018

Rosenthal: Sources say starting pitchers Jake Odorizzi, Collin McHugh could be dealt

Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Jake Odorizzi and Houston Astros righty Collin McHugh suddenly have much in common. Both are awaiting salary-arbitration hearings. Both are under club control for two more seasons. And both are drawing trade interest, according to major league sources.

and then…

The intentions of the New York Yankees, who have checked in on Odorizzi at various points, are less clear. The Yankees’ rotation seemingly is set with Masahiro Tanaka, Luis Severino, Sonny Gray, CC Sabathia and Jordan Montgomery. But the team has been trying to trade center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury to clear money for other pursuits, including a possible run at Darvish.

Odorizzi is a strange case, because he’s coming off a NEGATIVE WAR season and will be 28 in 2018, and yet everyone seems pretty confident in his abilities (he had back-to-back 3.6 and 3.0 WAR seasons in 2015 and 2016) enough so that the Rays will still be looking for a decent return.

I don’t think he makes sense for the Yankees, as is he even an upgrade over Montgomery? If they want to add someone to their rotation, it simply has to be someone who is a logical upgrade over Montgomery. Otherwise, why bother? Just get an infielder, for crying out loud!

--Posted at 12:04 pm by Brian Cronin / 49 Comments | - (0)


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I hope they remain in stand-pat mode, because I think they’re good enough to be patient unless a deeply discounted, but otherwise valuable, asset becomes available.

They’re good enough to be competitive, but it isn’t like Boston isn’t still a very good team, as well. The Red Sox saw practically their entire lineup have uncharacteristically down years. They would only need their hitters to return to their normal results for that Boston offense to be a very strong offense again. If they add JD Martinez it would be even better.

So this isn’t a situation like in Cleveland, where the other AL Central teams are far enough away that there is less of a need to improve the team before the season starts.

Yankees were two runs from out scoring opponents by two hundred runs last year and added the NL MVP. I’m with TSLA, except I’d be a little more proactive about adding an infielder. Although I’ve warmed to the idea of rolling Andujar and Gleyber out there. Nunez to me is a good compromise between decent player and easily replaceable.

Per Zips:  Montgomery 2.1 zWAR, Odorizzi 1.8 zWAR.  Per Steamer Montgomery 1.7, Odorizzi 0.9.

Hard pass unless TB is basically giving him away.

Concur with [1].  This team is fine.

Boston had so many crazy wins last season (two wins after dropped third strikes, crazy extra inning record) that even if their offense improves it may just offset the luck they had.

The big thing for the Yankees in injuries. CC and Tanaka seem like big risk. Bird? Who knows if he is nick Johnson. And they have no backup catcher if anything happens to Sanchez.

But yes this team is good right now. Only a real upgrade is worth doing.

Only a real upgrade is worth doing.

Exactly. Like a second baseman or a third baseman. That would be a real upgrade.

I’m afraid Bird is Nick Johnson.  It keeps me up at night.  Not for very long though, I fall asleep pretty quickly

I’m afraid of bees. Bees with tiny Nick Johnson heads.

The Yanks’ biggest need is yet to be determined. If Andujar or Torres is a bust, the Yanks need an infielder.  If one of their SPs is ineffective or has a major injury, they need a starting pitcher.  If Sanchez has a serious injury, they need a catcher.  IMHO it’s best to wait. Don’t make a trade based on a guess. Once the team finds out what they need, then made the trade.

[10] Yeah, the Yankees are a bit thin, especially to begin the season. They have decent error bars in relation to the rest of the AL East. But the infield could be pretty ugly.

[10] I don’t think it’s guessing to expect r3placemebt level play from two guys with practically zero ML experience. I know we’re all high on prospects right now but this is a clear weak spot on this team.

Hmmm… actually, that sounds exactly like guessing to me. It wouldn’t be guessing to say it’s a POSSIBLE area of weakness - and if they follow the strategy in [10], it’ll be a lot less of a guess when they actually make a decision than anything we’d say right now.

I think our safest strategy is to expect that all prospects turn out like Judge.

I don’t think it’s guessing to expect r3placemebt level play from two guys with practically zero ML experience. I know we’re all high on prospects right now but this is a clear weak spot on this team.

It’s “guessing” in the douchey sort of “all projections are guesses” sense, but yeah, in general, that’s spot on.

You’re asking a lot to expect 3-4 WAR from two rookies at second and third. Could it happen? Sure, but it would not be the most logical result. So, yes, that is the clear weak spot on this team and one that could be pretty easily resolved. Just sign a decent infielder.

If I had to guess, split contract for the best infielder standing in two weeks, Andujar starts at third and Torres down until service time manipulated, split contract guy takes over at 2/3 if either prospect is overwhelmed.  But yeah, if it’s Gleyber/Andujar for most of the season, we should NOT be disappointed at say total of 2 WAR from them.  They’re kids!  Not everyone is Sanchez or Judge. Cano got sent down in his what, third season?

Doesn’t “they’re kids” mean not that we should expect (concretely) little, but that we have no idea? That the mean projection would be, let’s say, something like replacement value, but that the accuracy of that projection is far lower than for a player with significant ML experience? I’m not saying that if we HAVE to guess, we should guess higher; I’m saying that it’s far more of a guess than a projection with more ML data. Is that wrong?

It’s LESS sure than a veteran, sure, but again, we’re not talking about one prospect, we’re talking about two. One prospect, you live with the uncertainty and hope he beats the projection. Two? You’re throwing out far too much uncertainty for a team that’s supposed to be competing for the World Series.

It’s not wrong, except that if you have the opportunity to get a known/higher certainty production at one of those positions, and all it costs you is a bit of money and the lost opportunity at some wish-cast hyperoptimistic upside maybekindasorta prospect potential… then not availing yourself of that opportunity would be wrong.

Unless you are…you know…some sort of Selig-protected TeamOfDestiny in Tampa or Boston….then your prospects are a lock !

[18]  No, I think it is wrong.  It’s possible to project minor leaguers moving to the majors, it’s just dicier than projecting guys who have actually played in the majors.  But you can’t default to them being replacement level.

We should not discard entirely MLB projections for MiL players, just view them with much bigger error bars, perhaps on the downside.  But as far as expecting both to be replacement level—that seems mistaken. 

Ronald Torreyes, who I have an irrational fondness for despite the fact that he’s a utility guy, accumulated .7 WAR in 336 PA last year.  That’s pretty good.  If neither Andujar nor Torres pick up at least 1 War in say 400 PA, that’s probably a disappointment on both sides of the ball.  But it seems like your baseline—replacement level—assumes both guys producing at say their 10% projection.  Which won’t happen, because if they suck that bad they will be sent down and mildly above replacement level Torreyes will step in.

[18] The whole “they’re kids”, zero expectations thing is nonsense.  Just because Joe Torre & the brass were afraid to trust almost any young player over two decades doesn’t mean we have to be brainwashed into thinking that kids can’t play.  So many other organizations are excited to give their kids a shot, but the Yankees always wanted to treat prospects like chips they would never cash in.

Bear in mind the team has Torreyes and Wade, so they have non-terrible replacements available should Torres or Andujar faceplant.  I do wish they had brought back T. Frazier, because he’s plausible Bird insurance as well as being a good 3b.

That ship sailed to Queens, so… I dont want Nuney-e.  Eff it, roll with what ya got.

[13]  Why would we expect 0 WAR?  Zips projects Torres for 1.5 WAR (only 425 PA) and 1.2 for Andujar.  That’s the expectation.  0 is pretty much a worst case.

Zips also has Wade for 1.2, which is a decent fallback.

DAvid Cone tweeted not to sleep on Tyler Wade. So, you know. Don’t do that.

[25] David Cone knows 1995 slang.

Isn’t Ellsbury making more than Yu Darvish? If so, we should trade Gardy.

Signing Nun-E would be wiggedy, wiggedy, wiggedy, whack!

In this lineup, in this stadium, at age 28, what does a disappointing season for Stanton look like?

I know Goose is just a moron, but man, when you talk shit like that about a dude who has been GM for TWENTY YEARS, you just look so damned foolish.

I love Goose. I hope he never stops. I hope he gets salty on Judge, Torres, Cano, Bernie and Pat Kelley next. I hope he talks shit about Mattingly as a manager and Jeter as an owner and Carlos Beltran just for being interviewed for the head coach gig.

Did we ever have a discussion on Esteban loaiza, drug king? 40 pounds of coke? Wow.

33 Probably a fun guy to party with.

I always wished he started Game 7 2004 instead of Kevin Brown.

[35] Went three innings, gave up no runs.

[33] Wasn’t there some heroin in there too? In other words, he has a fastball, and a change-up.

[32] What’s unique about an old guy saying “back in my day, blah blah blah…”? Gossage ripping Mariano all the time is crossing the line to me.  Gossage still doesn’t understand that Mo threw only one pitch, and every batter knew it was coming, I guess because he is too stupid to get it.  Goose could never have pitched like that.

Goose can’t get past the fact that he is not only not the best relief pitcher of all time, he isn’t even the best on the Yankees. He should take a lesson from sparky Lyle how to behave after you retire from playing. What a jerk. Hopefully we don’t have to hear from him again.

His arrogance was annoying as a player now it worse. He never could throw a FB by Brett.

[39] Plus, every Yankee fan knows that Mo was routinely used for more than one inning, especially in the postseason when facing the best teams in baseball.  And he is the best postseason pitcher in history.  And he had to pitch against juiced batters more than half of his career, who all knew they were getting fastballs.  Again, ten times the pitcher Gossage ever was.

[40] That’s not right.  Gossage’s prime was much more impressive than Rivera’s.  He avereaged 100 IP p.a. while maintaining a 190 ERA+ from 1975-83, with one year as an average SP thrown in.

Rivera had the better career, but face facts, he was babied, and used in a way that maximized his per inning performance.

I have no qualms saying that Gossage was the better pitcher.  The fact that he could be an average SP proves that.

All closers are overrated (and none belong in the HoF), but the modern closer is the most overrated of all, and Rivera is at the front of that parade.

Frankly, Rivera and Jeter are probably the two most overrated players of the last generation.

[41] That’s not right.

You know for sure you give Rivera the innings Gossage got, he would be worse? Especially when you throw in 10-15 of postseason innings and Mo was throwing more in the 80-90+IP/season range as is. And remember 1996?

We’re the Yankees managed by idiots?  If Rivera could have done the same in 100+ IP why didn’t they do it?

1996 was one year.  Gossage had 6 similar seasons, sandwiching a year where he threw 220 IP.

Pitchers in the 1880s used to pitch 600 innings.  The game changed. 

The players now are better than the 1990s.  The pitchers in the 1990s are better than the pitchers in the 1970s.

Jack Chesboro greatest pitcher EVAH.

The thing I find weird about all this is that Gossage is in the Hall of Fame! He’s gotten his credit. When someone just seems pissed about life & time moving forward, that’s pure irrationality.

[41] So because Mo was, by far, the best at something overrated he’s THE MOST overrated? Wouldn’t he be just as overrated as all of them but also far better? This is stupid.  You’re counting his being better against him.

Who cares who was better? Mo isn’t out there bitching like a pussy about how he’s way better than Gossage. he’s founding churches and helping poor school children and shit. Gossage is a douche and I don’t even know why anyone listens to him anymore, but it has nothing to do with who was better.

It’s the mustache. Adds a lot of gravitas.

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