The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Thursday, November 18, 2010

Projecting The Rest of Derek Jeter’s Career

Since rilkefan asked about a comparison of Derek Jeter and Eduardo Nunez over the next five seasons, here’s a look at what CAIRO says about that.

Before presenting the numbers, I’ll say that projecting even next year is a crapshoot, so projecting out to the next five seasons is even more of one.  So take whatever follows with several pounds of salt.

First up, here’s a look at how Jeter would project from 2011-2015, assuming he follows the standard aging curve.

Player Jeter, Derek
Year Age PA H 2B 3B HR SB BB SO avg obp slg wOBA BR BRAR Def WAR
2011 37 699 181 29 2 13 15 63 96 .290 .359 .407 .342 85 32 -7 2.5
2012 38 677 172 27 2 11 17 56 96 .284 .347 .389 .328 77 26 -9 1.7
2013 39 641 161 24 2 9 13 54 98 .282 .346 .380 .325 71 22 -10 1.2
2014 40 631 158 23 2 9 13 52 99 .281 .344 .377 .322 68 21 -12 0.9
2015 41 574 139 19 2 6 10 44 99 .271 .329 .354 .306 56 13 -13 -0.1
Total 3222 811 121 11 48 68 269 488 .282 .346 .382 .325 357 115 -52 6.3

BRAR: Linear weights batting runs above replacement level (park and position-adjusted)
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
Def: Projected runs saved defensively compared to average
WAR: Wins above replacement level (BRAR plus Def divided by 10)

The defensive projection is assuming a decline of about 1.5 runs per season, but it’s possible that the current projection of -7 is understating how poor of a defender Jeter may be.  There is some evidence that the play by play metrics are not fully capturing all of the plays that Jeter’s missing, but at this point I don’t consider it enough evidence to change from using several different play by play metrics that are reasonably useful and for which we have at least four years of data.

And here’s how Nunez would project over the same time period, also assuming he follows the standard aging curve.

Player Nunez, Eduardo
Year Age PA H 2B 3B HR SB BB SO avg obp slg wOBA BR BRAR Def WAR
2011 24 528 127 22 2 7 19 27 68 .256 .295 .349 .286 47 7 -1 0.6
2012 25 522 125 22 2 7 16 26 69 .255 .296 .348 .286 45 6 -1 0.6
2013 26 528 126 22 2 7 16 28 71 .255 .298 .351 .288 47 7 -2 0.6
2014 27 528 125 22 2 7 16 29 71 .254 .298 .350 .288 47 7 -3 0.5
2015 28 528 121 22 1 7 15 29 71 .246 .292 .340 .282 44 5 -4 0.1
Total 2633 623 109 8 35 83 139 351 .253 .296 .347 .286 230 32 -9 2.3

Nunez’s offensive projections leave a lot to be desired, because he really hasn’t hit all that well in the minors, and he’s really not young enough to expect a significant improvement.  A line of .274/.318/.369 in 6 minor league seasons just isn’t that good.

Although I’ve included it here, Nunez’s defensive projection is essentially worthless, since it’s only based on his brief time in the majors.  From what I saw, I doubt he’d even be an average defender, but I’m no scout and I really didn’t see enough to make any useful assessment.  But I just can’t see his glove making up for that offensive projection.

With the data we have so right now, it’s hard to see a situation where Nunez is going to be more valuable than Jeter over the next four seasons.  That doesn’t mean Jeter can’t underperform his projection or Nunez can’t overperform his, but right now that’s just not the most likely scenario. 

Of course, this needs to be tempered with the fact that CAIRO has two biases.  The first bias is the Yankee boosting algorithm which makes all the Yankees several wins better than they actually are.  The second bias is the anti-Jeter algorithm that I created to account for my hatred of Jeter.  So the gap is probably larger than this would show.

Anyway, since I don’t like to put all my faith in what one system might say, a less rigorous way to look at what Jeter may do may also be somewhat enlightening.  So, using his list of most similar players through age 36 from Baseball Reference, here’s how the eight players who played after age 36 performed over the rest of their careers.

Player From To Yrs G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG SB CS OPS+
Joe Morgan 1981-1984 4 463 1540 237 390 76 6 44 194 306 190 .253 .376 .396 64 14 119
Barry Larkin 2001-2004 4 371 1250 195 332 80 6 19 126 127 153 .266 .334 .385 20 6 87
Charlie Gehringer 1940-1942 3 311 996 179 269 52 7 14 134 203 47 .270 .397 .379 11 2 97
Lou Whitaker 1994-1995 2 176 571 103 170 35 2 26 87 72 88 .298 .375 .503 6 0 125
Alan Trammell 1995-1996 2 140 416 44 105 14 0 3 39 37 46 .252 .310 .308 9 1 60
Ryne Sandberg 1997-1997 1 135 447 54 118 26 0 12 64 28 94 .264 .308 .403 7 4 83
Ted Simmons 1987-1988 2 151 284 26 70 14 0 6 41 36 32 .246 .328 .359 1 1 85
Frankie Frisch 1936-1937 2 110 335 43 90 12 0 1 30 37 10 .269 .343 .313 2 0 78
Average 3 232 730 110 193 39 3 16 89 106 83 .264 .358 .389 15 4 92

I’m going to only discuss offense here, given the issues with defensive metrics past and present. I’ll also note that the similarity scores on Baseball Reference don’t account for era (aside from OPS+) so we need to temper how much we take from them.

Morgan was probably a better player than Jeter through age 36 once you adjust for context, so expecting Jeter to play to that level is perhaps wishful thinking.  Barry Larkin’s career actually models Jeter’s career through age 36 fairly closely on a rate basis, although Jeter’s greater durability gives him an edge in accrued value.

Years Player PA H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB HBP SO GDP BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
1986-2000 Barry Larkin 7654 2008 361 70 179 359 71 812 48 664 140 .300 .377 .456 .833 121
1995-2010 Derek Jeter 10548 2926 468 61 234 323 85 948 152 1572 235 .314 .385 .452 .837 119

Those are remarkably similar lines, aren’t they? 

Larkin played four more years and put up a lackluster line of .266/.334/.385 (OPS+ of 87) while averaging 93 games and 351 PA per season.  According to Baseball Reference’s WAR he was worth 2.4 WAR and got paid $27,700,000 for that.

On one hand, Jeter’s greater demonstrated ability to stay healthy is probably a point in his favor.  If Larkin would have played more he’d have been more valuable.  On the other hand, the fact that Jeter has played so much probably means he’s accumulated more wear and tear and his performance may be impacted.

Morgan put up 11.8 WAR from ages 37-40.  If the Yankees sign Jeter for four years CAIRO estimates they’ll get something like 6.0 WAR out of him, which is a bit less than the midpoint between Morgan and Larkin.  So that at least seems to be in the ballpark.

Hopefully they can keep the contract terms to three years, but I guess even a fourth year is not going to be a catastrophe on the field, even if it’s going to be a pretty hefty overpay.

--Posted at 9:53 pm by SG / 62 Comments | - (0)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

What’s the average WAR nor a SS and the 80 percentile?

If you ask that question again in English I might be able to answer.

What’s the average WAR for a SS [among current SSs], and what’s the 80th percentile WAR?

So you’ve got Jeter worth 1 WAR/y over Nunez over 4 years (actually 5), for I assume practically all of Jeter’s salary.  Does $20m buy a WAR worth of bench or middle relief reliably?

SG’s Jeter hatred is the oldest RLYW joke I can think of, and my favorite. I never miss a chance to point it out.

Thanks for the translation Rilke, sometimes when I try to convert from my native language I get confused like Andy Kauffman in Taxi.

[6] Seemed perfectly intelligible to me, actually.

Gaaaah ! Too much Joe Morgan in a non-complaining context.

Also, Nunez’s defensive projection is essentially worthless

ignores his Career 1.000 FPCT at SS, which should be totally worth like, a jajillion GG’s.

Interesting that CAIRO has Nunez worsening - I had assumed he’d do a bit better moving into his prime, but either CAIRO is bootstrapping or the aging curve goes against 0.6 WAR players.

At least we can definitively state that Nunez is a 22 2B kind of hitter.

I am hoping (expecting) better then a .766 OPS in 2011.
Only losing 6 Runs between a 37 yr old (6’2) SS and a 41 yr old SS seems low, especially for a guy who has never been good defensively at the position.

I would guess Jeter is worth 5-7 WAR over then next 3 years, which makes Jeter’s TANGIBLE market value around $25m-$30m over 3 years. While you can break it down many ways, my guess is many people would agree with those figures.
So Cashman, at 3/$45m is offing a 50% ‘Jeter Bonus’, but obviously, if this is a first offer, they are willing to go much higher (3/$60m? gag!).

Also, I think most might guess Jeter is basically worthless at 40 (year 4), and that the primary battle is years as opposed to dollars. So if the Yankees are willing to go 3/close to $60m… what’s the difference if they go 4/$60?

My feeling is Jeter is NOT the ‘Team First’ guy he had been portrayed to be. He is basically “wah wa wah wah ARod wa wah wah wha wa wah ARod wa wah”.

I think there were only ten “wahs” in his press release. Can you believe he has the audacity to negotiate a contract, that rat bastard?

Although I’ve included it here, Nunez’s defensive projection is essentially worthless, since it’s only based on his brief time in the majors.

Ok. But why is Nunez’s projection have him getting progressively worse with the same amount of playing time? I thought the CW was that defensive ability peaked somewhere between age 26 and 28.

Gaaaah ! Too much Joe Morgan in a non-complaining context.

I’ve always thought that the funniest thing about Morgan’s hatred of sabermetrics is that the system shows have great of a player he really was.

My feeling is Jeter is NOT the ‘Team First’ guy he had been portrayed to be. He is basically “wah wa wah wah ARod wa wah wah wha wa wah ARod wa wah”.

Jeter hasn’t actually said anything publicly, and all we have are “anonymous sources who are close to the Yankees” saying what Jeter wants.  I’m not going to complain about Jeter’s intentions until he actually makes them known.  E.g. by rejecting a contract offer and either not making a counter-offer or making a ridiculous one.

I thought the CW was that defensive ability peaked somewhere between age 26 and 28.

No, that’s overall ability.  Pretty sure that defense usually peaks in the 22-24 range, except for 1B.  Position-switchers I think may also show some small improvement for a year or two (which may be part of why 1B improves).

No, that’s overall ability.

Actually I thought overall ability was 27-30 or 31, depending on position. I guess I need to hit the books.

Via Rob Neyer, here is a decent Keith Olbermann article on Derek Jeter’s offense.  IDK if any of these people who Olbermann references actually exist of course, but if this story is on the up-and-up there could be some hope of improving Jeter at the plate.  And it makes sense - Jeter *does* have a lot of pre-swing movement, so perhaps eliminating that can get his bat into the hitting zone quicker.  Only way to find out will be to observe him next season.

From what I saw, I doubt he’d even be an average defender, but I’m no scout and I really didn’t see enough to make any useful assessment.

From my observations in SWB Yankees last year…Nunez has decent range, and a good arm.  His main problem seemed to be making some bone-head errors, but he didn’t make too many of them last year.  Just the ones he did make, you were left shaking your head.  Pretty sure I read that the Yankees - specifically Gene Michael - thought he had the ability to be a plus defender, and made great strides last year.  I don’t think he has the glove to “make up” for below-average offense.  But he can probably be league-averagish. 

Nunez reminds me of Cano.  When Cano came up, same questions defensively, a lot of questions whether he could hit consistently in the majors.  I don’t think Nunez has the same ability as Cano, but where Cano made the transition and looks to be a 4-6 WAR talent, maybe Nunez can make the transition and be a 2-3 WAR talent.  Fallback starter if Jeter craters before they can get a good replacement, good UIF otherwise.

[16] Well, there are some new studies on that.  MGL did some recently at InsideTheBook.  I think classically the peak years were like 26-28, but MGL found that since 1980 or so the peak has lasted longer, and is now more like 26-30.  Possibly better training, possibly better medical technology.

The starting year for the peak, and the length of the time, will probably differ some depending on the study.  E.g. rate-based (wOBA) may peak a little later than value-based (RAA), as younger players will get more plate appearances.  Also, how you define peak.  I think good rule of thumb, if the player is 25 and under expect some improvement, 30 and over expect some decline.

if the player is 25 and under expect some improvement

But not defense? I mean SG has Jeter losing 6 defensive runs from age 37 to 41, and Nunez losing 3 or 4 (depending on rounding) from ages 24 to 28. Just seems to not pass the smell test. I was expecting Nunez’s defensive numbers from 24 to 28 to basically stay the same.

Outside of the models, I guess we can also say that Nunez’s reports are very much of the ‘work in progress’ variety, so he is likely to improve from coaching, despite the net change from his age related ability.

I know that the Yankees will sign Jeter and will overpay him. It looks like he will have a better contract than Beltre, who is coming from an MVP season. So how much better the Yankees could be with Arod playing SS and Beltre playing third? I know that won’t happen, but it’s at least an intriguing idea.

Can Justin Upton play SS?

If the Yankees are forced to trade for a SS by 2012, which they may have to do even if they re-sign Jeter, who would be the player(s) that they would have the best chance of acquiring at a reasonable (even if high) cost?

all we have are “anonymous sources who are close to the Yankees” saying what Jeter wants

A-Rod has broken his silence ?

What’s the average WAR nor a SS and the 80 percentile?

[6] Seemed perfectly intelligible to me, actually.

After a night of sleep it makes more sense to me, the nor threw me off.

A rough rule of thumb is that a replacement level player should be two wins worse (combined offense/defense/baserunning) than an average player at any position (over a full season).  Since I switched to using the standard positional adjustments, I’m not sure if that’s true at this given moment.

The average WAR for the highest projected SS in each of the 30 MLBS organizations is 2.2.  The top six projected SS WAR average (80th percentile) is 3.6.  Jeter ranks 9th in CAIRO projected SS WAR.

Ramirez, Hanley, FLO: 57 BRAR, -7 Def, 5.0 WAR
Tulowitzki, Troy, COL: 37 BRAR, 7 Def, 4.4 WAR
Rollins, Jimmy, PHI: 27 BRAR, 4 Def, 3.2 WAR
Drew, Stephen, ARI: 31 BRAR, 0 Def, 3.1 WAR
Reyes, Jose, NYN: 29 BRAR, 0 Def, 3.0 WAR
Furcal, Rafael, LAN: 26 BRAR, 3 Def, 2.8 WAR
Bartlett, Jason, TB: 27 BRAR, 1 Def, 2.8 WAR
Escobar, Yunel, ATL: 22 BRAR, 5 Def, 2.6 WAR
Jeter, Derek, NYA: 32 BRAR, -7 Def, 2.4 WAR
Uribe, Juan, SF: 19 BRAR, 4 Def, 2.2 WAR
Cabrera, Asdrubal, CLE: 22 BRAR, 0 Def, 2.1 WAR
Peralta, Jhonny, CLE: 24 BRAR, -4 Def, 2.1 WAR
Gonzalez, Alex, ATL: 16 BRAR, 4 Def, 2.0 WAR

Interesting that CAIRO has Nunez worsening - I had assumed he’d do a bit better moving into his prime, but either CAIRO is bootstrapping or the aging curve goes against 0.6 WAR players.

What we’re finding out is that the peak for a professional ballplayer is actually younger than previously thought in many instances, it’s just that for a lot of players that peak happens in the minors so it’s never been part of most aging studies.  So the degree of improvement you can expect from a player who’s already 23-24 isn’t very big.

As a rough rule of thumb, BB rate increases from a player’s early 20s up through age 37 or so.  K rate improves through age 27 then starts to worsen. HR rate improves up to age 31, non-HR extra base hits through age 28.  What hurts someone like Nunez is he’s a singles hitter and singles rate actually tends to decline from a very young age as well, be it due to not legging out as many hits or scouting catching up with a player or whatever.  So the improvements in his secondary skills aren’t going to make him age better on paper because even with the increase from aging they’re going to be sub-standard.

Only losing 6 Runs between a 37 yr old (6’2) SS and a 41 yr old SS seems low, especially for a guy who has never been good defensively at the position.

There’s also a decrease in playing time so on a rate basis it’s more than that, but in general all the data we have on SS who have played the position into their 40s is decent because once a player is no longer capable of being out there he doesn’t play anymore.  So that type of projection is heavily impacted by selection bias.  It’s more likely that if Jeter were still playing SS at age 40 he’d be abysmal, but if that ends up being the case he won’t be playing SS.

The nature of projections involves being conservative both negatively and positively.  Implicit in them is that a player still has the ability to do what they’re expected to do in year n or they will not be out there.

But not defense? I mean SG has Jeter losing 6 defensive runs from age 37 to 41, and Nunez losing 3 or 4 (depending on rounding) from ages 24 to 28. Just seems to not pass the smell test. I was expecting Nunez’s defensive numbers from 24 to 28 to basically stay the same.

As I said:

“Although I’ve included it here, Nunez’s defensive projection is essentially worthless, since it’s only based on his brief time in the majors.”

As Mike K. notes, defense peaks very young, like at 23-24, because that’s when a player’s agility and reflexes are their best.  While there are some players who improve as they gain experience at the position and learn to play it better, that’s not the norm.  Not sure if Nunez falls into that category or not, but if I was working for the Yankees I probably wouldn’t to assume that he does.  He’s played 600 minor league games at SS already, and BB Ref TotalZone has him at -41 in his career, although I don’t know how much that tells us, if anything. 

I guess one encouraging thing is that his minor-league fielding percentage isn’t very good (.938), which may mean he’s getting to plays and booting them.  That indicates decent range, and perhaps the reason he’s making errors is related to something that can be coached away.

But again, I don’t think I’d want the Yankees thinking that if Jeter leaves Nunez is the answer once he improves, because that improvement is less likely to happen than not happen.  Thankfully, I’m pretty sure they don’t think that.

At least we can definitively state that Nunez is a 22 2B kind of hitter.

Bet the farm on it.

Shit.  I really want the Yankees to hold the line at three years but, based on nothing, I have a feeling they’ll cave and give Jeter a fourth year.  If year four is some sort of vesting option then it will still stink but not as bad.

But again, I don’t think I’d want the Yankees thinking that if Jeter leaves Nunez is the answer once he improves, because that improvement is less likely to happen than not happen.  Thankfully, I’m pretty sure they don’t think that.

IMHO, if they resign Jeter they’ll try to get Nunez a decent amount of time at SS.  All over the field really but especially at SS.  Though it may be a small sample - say, 300 innings in the field at SS, and 300PA - and see how Nunez looks.  If he continues to improve on last year, both at the plate and in the field, that will give them more confidence in increasing his role in 2012.  If he doesn’t show any improvement or - worse yet - declines, then they know 2012 they need to make a decision on who their SS for 2012-1014 (when Culver is hopefully ready) will be, and pursue that player.  Reyes is (potentially) a FA, and may be worth pursuing.

As I said:

“Although I’ve included it here, Nunez’s defensive projection is essentially worthless, since it’s only based on his brief time in the majors.”

I wasn’t focusing on the values you had there, but the relative difference in projection in 2011 and the years going forward. I was just expecting more of a plateau (again, relative to his 2010 or 2011 projection) than a decline that’s at least comparable to what the model is showing for a 37 year old heading towards 41.

But again, I don’t think I’d want the Yankees thinking that if Jeter leaves Nunez is the answer once he improves, because that improvement is less likely to happen than not happen.  Thankfully, I’m pretty sure they don’t think that.

I agree with this. The numbers just give us some information so we can say, generally, hey, if you’re waiting for this guy to become Hanley Ramirez or even Jimmy Rollins lite, it ain’t happening.

... meaning (Hanley Ramirez or even Jimmy Rollins) lite.

My feeling is Jeter is NOT the ‘Team First’ guy he had been portrayed to be. He is basically “wah wa wah wah ARod wa wah wah wha wa wah ARod wa wah”.

Good thing you changed your name to OldYanksFan because if you were still Thurman fan…

Before presenting the numbers, I’ll say that projecting even next year is a crapshoot, so projecting out to the next five seasons is even more of one.  So take whatever follows with several pounds of salt.

Yeah.  To give this some context, if you have a chance could you post Jeter’s and Nunez’s total for the next 3 years if they hit their 70th and 30th percentiles in year one?

2nd best SS in the AL next year?

[31] Right now he projects below Bartlett and Escobar, though not by much. Bartlett sort of sucks, too. That one good year he had is probably skewing that. My bet’s on Escobar, who is actually a legit talent.

I wasn’t focusing on the values you had there, but the relative difference in projection in 2011 and the years going forward. I was just expecting more of a plateau (again, relative to his 2010 or 2011 projection) than a decline that’s at least comparable to what the model is showing for a 37 year old heading towards 41.

I’ll double-check my defense aging, I may be too harsh on a player in his late 20s, although the difference isn’t going to be huge, maybe a couple of runs over five seasons.

Yeah.  To give this some context, if you have a chance could you post Jeter’s and Nunez’s total for the next 3 years if they hit their 70th and 30th percentiles in year one?

I do 80%, 65%, Baseline, 35% and 20%, I’ll update the post to show those in a bit.

“Good thing you changed your name to OldYanksFan because if you were still Thurman fan…”

I think otf is hiding from Clay and his blue gloves.

24 “nor” should have read “for” and as bad as I type on a keyboard I am that much worse on my Droid X

Speaking of hiding, rilkefan scared MC in VA, but good…

It seems like there may be some disagreement in the politburo, because I do occasionally see items like “there is one person in the Yankees’ FO who wants to take a hard line on Jeter.”  I would love to know what these guys (and gals?  not sure if there are any high ranking ladies at the moment, but anyhoo) are really thinking about Jeter.  How have they projected him, what do they hope for out of Nunez, who do they have their eye on in terms of trade targets, what do they think of Culver, etc etc.  I suppose some day there will be a book, and Cashman seems like he might be forthcoming, but he also seems like he might have a long career in baseball and I doubt he’s dumb enough to pull a Torre—that is, he’ll wait until he’s retired.  The problem is that FO guys NEVER retire.  Look at Gene Michael, the guy’s like 99.  And isn’t Syd Thrift still out there ruining some organization?  I’m pretty sure he played with Hughie Jennings.

[35]  Also working for Russian boss is to be affecting one’s English, yes?

SG, aren’t the peak defensive years from age 24-28?

The peak is from ages 24 to 28, and then the drop is only five plays per year. In the three years leading up to age 24, the gain averages eight plays per year.—tango

Has there been a more recent study on defensive aging curves?  I saw you mentioned 23-24.

[38] Well, the next sentence:

The degree of regression will establish the peak age and the slope toward the peak age. I tried different regession values, and it always maxes out at age 28. So, that is one conclusion we can make: On average, shortstop fielding prowess peaks no later than age 28. Recall that, in the first (unregressed) table, the peak age was around 23. So, the true answer lies somewhere between these points (without regression and with maximum regression). The second chart above seems to satisfy this condition.

I admit to being unaware of that article until you brought it up.  I’m sure I had read MGL at least use 23-24 on several occasions - perhaps he hadn’t corrected for the survivor-bias Tango did.  I’m not sure if SG remembers that range from the same place I did, or if he has his own information.

[38] Physiologically I would expect defense to be at it’s peak 23-26 or so. I could see how a player could be stable until about 30 from experience (routes, positioning, etc) and whatnot. After that physical deterioration would consistently degrade defense.

Men have a general physically peak in their mid to late 20s. However, power and reflexes peak earlier, (better defense and better stolen base numbers), while strength and skill peak later (better K, BB and SLG rates). If a player were preternaturally skilled at hitting a baseball (think better than Ted Williams), we would expect their power numbers to peak in their mid to late 20s, when their skill, power and strength peaks would be at the best combination. But hitting is very difficult, especially hitting for power which necessitates good contact, so it’s unsurprising that power peaks around 30, rather than at a player’s physical power peak.

Not Russian simply Marxist from Brooklyn

actually upper west side and Harvard.

Speaking of hiding, rilkefan scared MC in VA, but good…

That’s an ingenious attempt to induce MC to start posting again if he has been confining himself to merely lurking!

Yankees first offer reportedly 3/45.

I am now standing by my prediction of ~4/70. This is just going to lead to me actively disliking Jeter.

[46] Radio?  I checked a couple of sites and didn’t see anything.  I *did* however come across on Lohud a Chad Jennings review of potential additions to the 40-man roster to protect from the Rule V draft.  His prediction - Laird and Betances, maybe one or two others out of the 10-12 guys there.

[48] I doubt it.  At least, not guaranteed.

[46] That’s per Heyman. I don’t know what’s stupider, to leak info to Heyman or to make your first offer what your last offer should be.

[49] - Rotoworld / Jon Heyman on Twitter

to make your first offer what your last offer should be.

Two ways this is okay: 1) “Derek, this is the better than you’ll get anywhere else.  We want to get this over with quickly, but it is as high as we can go.”  2) “Derek, this is better than you’ll get anywhere else.  We can’t afford to guarantee any more, but we may be willing to talk about incentives”.

There are 9,999,998 ways this isn’t okay.  I’m not going to bother to list them.  I’m thinking it will be one of the two good ones.  E.g. I don’t think they deviated much from their initial offer to Damon (which should have been their last offer).  And though Jeter is different than Damon, they’re alreayd guaranteeing more than twice as much so…

Why is it unreasonable to tie extra years to performance?  I mean why not offer Jeter the 4th year and have it kick in provided:

a) he average .300 at end of 3rd year OR
b) he average .300 during the 3 years
c) something else along these lines with performance being the excerciser

You would think that someone with any appreciation for past accomplishment wouldn’t want to continue anyway at a sub-performance level.

That would be my reasonable approach to Jeter if I were Cashman.

“That’s an ingenious attempt to induce MC to start posting again if he has been confining himself to merely lurking!”

The member list above purports to show the last visit to the site of each commenter, and his is the time when that we discussed un point de saint Augustin sur lequel nous ne sommes pas d’accord.

‘1) “Derek, this is the better than you’ll get anywhere else.  We want to get this over with quickly, but it is as high as we can go.”’

Does he look bad or good to take their offer?  Dumb or team-centric?

[53]  I’m not sure that’s ok under the CBA.  I know you cant tie current year pay to performance—ie, 9 mill for batting .290, 10 mill for .300, etc.  I think vesting options can only be based on playing time/appearances, but I’m not sure.  You could do this under the table, ie make year 4 a mutual option or something with the understanding that it’s exercised based on production, but I suppose that’s really always the case with options.  I just don’t think you can tie it specifically to numbers.

Why is it unreasonable to tie extra years to performance?  I mean why not offer Jeter the 4th year and have it kick in provided:

a) he average .300 at end of 3rd year OR
b) he average .300 during the 3 years
c) something else along these lines with performance being the excerciser

Yeah, there are rules against that in the collective bargaining agreement as fgaspirini notes.  You can tie incentives to playing time, ie 4th year vests if he reaches 500 PA, but you can’t tie it into the actual stats of the player.  Probably because it may lead to a temptation by a player to put their own stats ahead of the team to reach some statistical milestone that will guarantee them extra salary.

The playing time thing is generally pretty close though, because if a player’s not playing well you can play him less and point to his performance as the reason rather than trying to avoid paying him.

Options and money cannot be tied to results in MLB contracts. Best you can do is vest them with things like PA, games played, innings pitched and games started or finished ( but not saves or wins).  I mean, maybe we could do an incentive of the form minimum 500 PA and maximum 400 ABs, but then you risk Jeter bunting every time there is someone on.

I should have reloaded before posting, obviously.

“I should have reloaded before posting, obviously.”

“you risk Jeter bunting every time there is someone on”

No, it was worth a little repetition to get that scenario in.

Weren’t Roman legionnaires paid in salt?

[61] In part (hence “salary”) according to my high-school education.  The web says, “Eh, it’s maybe possible, more likely the salary was to pay for (among other things) salt”.

Page 1 of 1 pages:

NY Times: As Jeter Ends Farewell Tour, Yanks Plan a Welcome Party
(30 Comments - 9/30/2014 12:50:06 am)

Yankees.com: Jeter fittingly goes out a winner in final game
(7 Comments - 9/29/2014 11:26:00 am)

Yankees (83-78) @ Red Sox (71-90), Sunday, September 28, 2014, 1:35pm
(41 Comments - 9/28/2014 6:39:02 pm)

Yankees (82-77) @ Red Sox (70-89), Friday, September 26, 2014, 7:10pm
(73 Comments - 9/28/2014 1:18:59 am)

USA Today: Derek Jeter’s unbelievable closing act at Yankee Stadium
(55 Comments - 9/26/2014 4:49:50 pm)

Yankees.com: Captain Clutch! Jeter scripts walk-off
(28 Comments - 9/26/2014 9:29:20 am)

Orioles (95-63) @ Yankees (81-77), Thursday, September 25, 2014, 7:05pm
(132 Comments - 9/25/2014 10:45:17 pm)

Hardball Talk: Phil Hughes sets the all-time strikeout-to-walk ratio record
(33 Comments - 9/25/2014 5:39:12 pm)

Yankees.com: Time runs out on Yankees’ postseason chase
(20 Comments - 9/25/2014 3:13:39 pm)

Orioles (94-63) @ Yankees (81-76), Wednesday, September 24, 2014, 1:05pm
(41 Comments - 9/24/2014 8:41:38 pm)