The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Wednesday, December 27, 2017

PP-G: The Yankees’ trade offers for other starters could offer context to the Gerrit Cole talks

The Yankees offered packages of prospects and young players similar to what they are offering the Pirates to the Tampa Bay Rays, for Chris Archer, and to the Detroit Tigers, for Michael Fulmer, according to a source. The Rays and Tigers rejected the offers.


Archer, 29, is under contract through 2019 for only $13.75 million total, with club options for 2020 ($9 million) and ’21 ($11 million). He also plays for a division rival, albeit one that is retooling. Fulmer is only 24, won the AL rookie of the year award in 2016 and is under team control for five more seasons. He had surgery to move the ulnar nerve in his elbow in September but should be ready for spring training.


This means Cole, who is 27 and has two more years of team control before reaching free agency, is the least expensive of the three to acquire.


Yankees top prospect Gleyber Torres was off limits in all three offers. The New York Post reported Friday that the next two prospects in their system, outfielder Estevan Florial and lefty Justus Sheffield, are also off the table. The offers, then, center around 23-year-old outfielder Clint Frazier and also include some combination of prospects: righty Chance Adams, infielder Tyler Wade, third baseman Miguel Andujar and shortstop Thairo Estrada..

Great article by Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writer Bill Brink looking at other trade offers that the Yankees have made to see what a possible Gerrit Cole trade could look like.

It’s interesting that it seems like the Yankees offered Frazier, Adams, Wade and Estrada for Fullmer, which the Tigers rejected. That’s a fascinating offer, as it seems like it is RIGHT on the level where it is probably a really nice return on Fullmer and yet probably JUST a little too little for me to accept if I’m Detroit. Wade and Estrada are useful players, but they’re likely bench guys/marginal starters, so it’s really Frazier and Adams and Fullmer has some crazy good upside (plus all those years of control). Fullmer has big downside, too, because of his injury risk, which is why Frazier and Adams is tempting.

In any event, obviously those guys (Archer and Fullmer) are better players than Cole, so we’re probably talking “just” Frazier and Adams for Cole and honestly, the Pirates should take that if it has been offered.

--Posted at 5:36 pm by Brian Cronin / 81 Comments | - (0)

Comments

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I was talking about that offer with some Detroit friends. It just doesn’t make sense to me. Why would the Yankees offer Wade AND Estrada? If I’m Avila I take 1 of them and want a good chunk more.

But Avila has been giving players away, so you can’t blame the Yankees.

I guess the argument is that between the two of them you might get one good starter and then the other one is a nice bench piece. Wade is an okay bench guy NOW, ya know?

Or you turn one or both of them into other things.  Abreu’s a bit of a tough trade due to the salary, you throw in a low ceiling/high floor prospect as a sweetener.

ETA, I was confused and Jose Abreu is of course on the White Sox not the Tigers.

You could argue that Adams is on a similar prospect tier as Fulmer was, so Detroit would be getting a deal headlined by Frazier, and a guy who could be the “next Fulmer.”

True, that’s why I think it is an intriguing trade for them, but since they control Fullmer for so many years, I think that they could afford to wait on him and get a similar return mid-season and if he gets hurt, they could probably even get a RELATIVELY similar return on four years of Fullmer next year, even coming off an injury (so long as it isn’t TJS, of course).

5. Yeah, with the 5 years of control, I’d really need to be blown away before I trade Fulmer if I’m Detroit.

1. Wade can play shortstop though. Marketing Wade & Estrada as a potentially cheap and solid up the middle combo definitely makes sense. I could see them both being pretty good players. Estrada has a chance to be an All Star if he develops more gap power. He already handles the bat quite well. I feel like Wade is riskier because he takes such a huge cut and will probably top out at 15 homers. I’m really not worried about the Yankees finding a third baseman. They only need a one year stop-gap for either Andujar or Machado. I’d love Wilmer Flores, a guy who has taken nothing but trash from Mets fans and management despite having the potential to hit 25 homers with 550 AB’s while playing decent defense at 3B. Chances are that the Mets won’t want to trade with the Yankees though. Or they’ll ask for Gleyber.

As for a starter, I could see an out of nowhere deal for Archer and someone like Brad Miller (who really sucks defensively at 2B, but could conceivably start in the beginning of the year and has some lefty pop) All it would take is the Rays valuing Frazier more highly than the Pirates, which isn’t impossible at all.

Well, they apparently already turned down a Frazier-based trade for Archer, according to the Pittsburgh guy.

8. Archer does have a great contract, but if the Yankees are really interested, hard to see the Rays doing better than Frazier+. I guess the Dodgers could offer Verdugo. They really could use another starting pitcher, so we’ll see how that develops.

A crazy hypothesis came to me the other night thinking about the Diamondbacks. They could really make hay trading Greinke for Ellsbury IF they turned around and traded for Cole. Then they’d simply be replacing Greinke’s contract with JD Martinez and a cheaper starter in Cole. They have the prospects for a deal, especially if they were willing to deal DuPlantier. Everyone kinda wins in this scenario: the Yankees get another really good starting pitcher for thirteen million, the Diamondbacks get to bring back JD and have a lot of wiggle room for another move. Just a thought. Of course the Yankees would also want Drury in a Greinke trade. That could be what held that deal up. I for one have always loved Greinke as a pitcher and see him aging well with his power change-up. Though I can understand if you guys are leery about that contract. It is a big commitment. Three years would have been ideal. Four is pushing it. But if you’re trying to win now…

On a different team Thairo Estrada would be a relatively prized prospect. No he has not shown a ton of power but a middle infielder at 21 getting on-base at a .351 clip in AA is nothing to sneeze at. If Gleyber has the stick for third base, Estrada could slip into that second base spot and really establish himself in 2019. All depends.

Would you guys do Frazier and Sheffield for Fulmer or Archer?

10. Man I’d have to think *hard* about dealing Sheffield for Fulmer. I don’t think I’d do it for Archer. I love Sheffield as a prospect because:

1. He profiles as a classic starting pitcher. There is not even remotely a whiff of ‘reliever’ about this guy, unlike even Adams, who pitched great in the minors but is perceived as a reliever type by some, whether one agrees or not.

2. His velocity ticked up in the Fall League. Sheffield throwing 94-96 has a huge ceiling.

3. He’s lefty! I repeat, he’s lefty!

For Archer I’d offer the Rays: Frazier, Adams, Estrada & McKinney. Estrada is the type of cheap starting piece the Rays crave. McKinney would allow them to turn and deal Souza for more prospects, in addition to starting Frazier in left-field. Adams’ fly-ball tendencies are way less worrisome in the Trop. Overall I think that could be a really nice deal for them.

[7]  This I don’t buy because you’re asking a team to bet heavily on Wade AND Estrada as above-replacement MLB regulars.  Maybe they will be, but—and I feel like there’s a name for this fallacy I don’t remember—it’s one of those situations where it feels more credible to make two long-shot assertions than one.  EG, in 2018 we will see both a North Korean nuclear disarmament and an end to fighting in Syria.  Both are low probability but pair them and it seems like clever analysis.  I’m not attacking you, Dandy, just disagreeing.

12. I do think Wade is less likely to be a good Major League player than Estrada. Estrada to me profiles as a decent MLB regular at worst. Too much to like about his contact rate, excelling in his first taste of AA, and versatility.

Yeah, I like Estrada too—I saw him at Staten Island at 19 and thought he looked legit (because I AM a professional scout!).  And I think Wade could be decent, certainly a major league utility guy.  It’s just the sales proposition I question—“here’s your middle infield for the next six years!”

Also please note I saw Jhalan Jackson in the same SI game and thought, here’s the next Gary Sheffield.  Though there’s still time for him—he’s getting on in prospect years but he hit well at AA last year.

14. I thought the point of sales was to rip people off?

Baseball Reference Observations: I remember Jason Giambi’s first year with the Yankees being amazing. What I did not remember is that he had a better .OBP (by five points, but still) in ‘05, when his career was considered over in early May, even by the Yankees, who wanted to send him down to the minors. The guy was dirty, but man, he was a compelling player.

[16] False, sales is all about fucking with the people that actually make the product you are selling.

From the last thread…

Seeing Gary, Judge and Severino become elite players so rapidly understandably has many Yankee fans overvaluing prospects I think.

It’s not overvaluing prospects, it’s just that Cole and C.C. make no sense together. Cole had been mediocre and it’s arguable if it makes the team better at all.  It’s trading for depth that isn’t cheap and will only be around 2 years. I don’t want to spend $17M on 5th and 6th starters let alone give up prospects to do it. You want to trade for archer, fine, not this.

This is not a win now team.

[19] Exactly. If the argument against Cole was that Adams is ready and can take that 5th spot, it would be a questionable one. But the argument against Cole is that the Yankees already have a full rotation and there are question marks around his performance.

[20] There are a few question marks around his performance, but I’m not sure the Yankees really already have a full rotation. Games started last season for our current 1 through 5 starters:

Severino:  31
Tanaka:    30
Montgomery: 29
Gray:    27
Sabathia:  27

That’s about a 29-GS average (total of 144 GS). If you try to factor in relative injury risk and starters pitching more innings last season than they ever have before, what do you think is a good over/under number of games to be started for this group for the 2018 season? 125? 130?

[21] That’s a full rotation. They have plenty of depth to cover for anything short of catastrophic injury.

If you were to go out and get Cole or Archer, who would you bump from the rotation (for me, Fulmer is a different story)?

There is almost zero chance that Cashman doesn’t make a trade for a SP and that sucks. I get the feeling that it may happen within the next 2 days

I didn’t realize Archer struggled so much the last 2 years.

We have a fuller OF than rotation and there are even more questions about how Frazier will perform than Cole. As said in a previous thread Cole projects as our second best starter. You can argue with projections but he is a valuable asset for any team including ours. You can never have too much pitching didn’t stop being a thing. Like I’ve said I’m not huge on Cole but it’s the people who act like Frazier is too valuable and should be kept that I’m arguing against. He is more valuable to everyone else. There must be a trade out there that makes sense.

[25] Only Steamer has been published, AFAIK. And if we’re going to use that, the Yankees should be pursuing Archer over Cole anyway.

I think that they are. It’s just that the guys that they are willing to give up won’t get you Archer or Fullmer, but they might get you Cole. That’s what this whole article above is about.

[25] - It would get you Phil Hughes too but that doesn’t mean you have to do it.

Steamer projects Phil Hughes to have 0.1 WAR next year. They project Gerrit Cole to have a higher WAR than every non-Severino Yankee starter.

Clearly, Cash sees a lot of the same things in Cole that Steamer does.

[29] - Even if you are willing to hang you hat on 1 projection system (which you shouldn’t), it still doesn’t explain why you’d sign C.C. and trade for Cole.  It’s a wasteful use of money and prospects.

[19] Pretty sure this is a “win now” team. Or a reasonable facsimile, within the bounds of Halcap.

I think there’s a very good chance rotation depth is an area Yankees analytics think is undervalued and are acting accordingly.

Good people, I had lunch with our man SG today.  He remains a man of passionate convictions, fierce integrity, and incredible muscles.

[32]  Interesting idea.  I wonder if the Yanks will start rotating people through the DL the way the Dodgers do.

[33] Where? When? What did you have, other than mussels? Who picked up the tab? Inquiring minds want to know. Photos too.

[35] No photos. I like not hating any of you based on your stupid face.

[33] the fuck kinda bet did he lose?

If anyone is curious what I look like, here is a picture taken of me recently.

https://goo.gl/images/dftWy3

[32] & [34] - I’d question any analytics that say a 6th starter is more important than a starting 2nd and 3rd basemen.

I get it, the off season isn’t over. Maybe he gets Cole and trades Sonny or some other chain of moves but if they are giving up top prospects they need be significantly better off than just signing a 3rd basemen instead of trafing for cole or instead of just not trading Chase.

@BobKlap
58s59 seconds ago
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Told #Yankees are currently “nowhere” on possible deal for Gerrit Cole and were actually never close in talks with #Pirates. NYY rotation is set for now.

First they say they will, then they say they won’t.

[21] That’s a full rotation. They have plenty of depth to cover for anything short of catastrophic injury.

Well, it’s a rotation “full” of high-injury-risk pitchers. From the stats I’ve seen, the injury risk for the typical pitcher is 20-25% over the course of a season. For this rotation, I think we’re talking 30-40% on average (that’s admittedly a WAG on my part, but, if anything, it is conservative). I’ll be knocking on wood like a madman if we somehow make it to June 1st without at least one of our starters already on the DL. The risk for “catastrophic” injury (assume this means out for the season) is significant for this staff. The risk of non-catastrophic injury is significant for this staff.

Am I worried about who will have to sit if all six starters are healthy and none of them are performing poorly? No, because it’s very unlikely to happen.

If we hadn’t acquired Stanton, I’d be much more willing to let things ride as is, but as soon as we acquired Stanton (on top of being 1 victory short of a WS appearance last season), we definitely went fully into win-now mode. Stanton may only be with the Yankees through 2020 (that may be the best-case scenario). The Yankees need to take advantage of the next 3 seasons of Stanton’s 28 through 30-year-old seasons, on top of Judge and Sanchez’s prime peak seasons.

I don’t love what I’m hearing about what it will take to acquire Cole, but I’m not surprised either. And I think you can totally forget acquiring Fulmer if you want to hang on to Torres. But that does not mean that we don’t have a vulnerability with our starting pitching.

Win now mode doesn’t mean you can win now. Win now mode means you have to win now. Empty your chambers because your window is closing. Prospects mean nothing because by the time they are ready your opportunity to win is gone.

That is not the Yankees.

[39] I’d question any analytics that say a 6th starter is more important than a starting 2nd and 3rd basemen.

I would too. Of course, that statement assumes that not having a starting 2nd and 3rd baseman = having a replacement-level players at those positions. Is Torres a replacement-level second baseman? Another way to think about it, how many starting second basemen in the major leagues would general managers NOT trade straight up for Torres? Probably only need one hand to count that number (likely would even be the case for Mordecai Brown, if he were still alive).

Yeah, it kinda is. As [42] notes, the window is opening, and you should maximize it, not wait until it is closing before you do something to up the action.

This is NOT a team in rebuild mode that is marking time waiting for prospects to develop.

[43] If that is how we are defining “win now”, then I would agree. But the focus for the team—the equation of balancing out short-term plans against long-term plans—decidedly changed with the Stanton acquisition.

If a team increases the chances of the postseason from 90% to 95% by trading away a 10% higher chance of the postseason for the following 5 years is that worth it?  To some teams, not to the Yankees.

I wouldn’t call tgem a win now team. They are a very good team with a bright outlook.

Those numbers are obviously POOMA, but that’s the cost-benefit that each trade should be seen through, methinks.

It’s dangerous to count on prospects, but the Yankees have at least 2 top 100 pitching prospect in AA or AAA. Albert Abreu is right on that bubble. That’s not definite depth, but it’s much better than the Yankees have had recently.

That doesn’t even include the already ML level guys who could be used as a 6th starter.

I’m not against acquiring another starter, but it has to make sense. Paying a relative premium for Cole doesn’t pass that test for me.

Hell, I’m not even against standing completely pat with the team as currently constructed, but IF the Yankees have to make another move, I’d prefer some more reliability out of 2B or 3B over sending Montgomery to the BP/AAA.

That’s where I’m at. I trust Cashman that Cole would be a legit upgrade on the rotation and make the rotation better, but they are relying way too much on two rookies plus Ronald Torreyes and Tyler Wade at second and third. Luckily, Todd Frazier is still out there. He would be such a simple solution to the problem if he would agree to a one-year deal. Obviously, though, that would not be his preference. Therein lies the rub.

Seems like the Cole trade is dead. Wonder if the Yankees will just sign Nuney and a veteran depth starter and call it a day. I’d be fine with that, though I am more enthusiastic about acquiring another strong starting pitcher than many of youse, given CC’s knee, Tanaka’s elbow, and general unpredictability. And I do love the depth as is, especially Domingo German, who would be way more highly regarded had he not had TJ in the minors. But this is just the nature of baseball. Never enough hurlers. How about Lincecum?

You know who makes sense for this club? Headley on a one year deal.

Darvish rumors persisting. I say: worth the risk at four years. One of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball.

Because of the Halcap, it would be adding Darvish and getting rid of Gardy or Robertson (or someone). Still would be awesome, but not as great

[37] Complicated parlay involving the USA-Slovakia Junior Hockey game, which hadn’t even been played yet.

For those of you still on the Cole train, it’s clear that the Pirates don’t have a better offer or they would have taken it.  He may yet be in pinstripes despite my misgivings.

53. Maybe not if they can get Ellsbury off the books, or at least like 11 million Ellsbucks off the books.

[56] I think that dream is dead for now. Ellsbury doesn’t really want to leave, has a NTC and seems to fully believe he can win his starting spot back.

He may be more amenable to a move midseason/next winter if his playing time is as limited as expected, but for now, it’s a non-starter.

There are a lot of things at play right now and I’m going to throw out a few final thoughts and then let it go.  I don’t have any say in the direction this team takes so I’m not going to argue it endlessly.  At some point we are going to have to agree to disagree.

[45] - I don’t agree. In the game today you have to keep graduating cheap talent.  Just because they had Jeter, Posada, and Mo doesn’t mean they didn’t hold onto Cano.  You always need to be developing strong prospects ready to fill holes and give you cheap production.  You can’t be the Yankees of the late 90’s and early 2000’s and outspend everyone by 50%.

[47] - Agreed.  This has been my objection to the Cole trade. Don’t mortgage future years or overpay with resources for the very short term. 

[48] - This is basically my view as well.

[51] - It really is true.  Again the off-season isn’t over yet but if we are looking ways to spend our remaining money while still leaving some for mid-season trades, that is as good of an option as any I’ve seen.

[52] - Darvish is another move that would have made a lot of sense before C.C.  The C.C. and Hedley moves seem very suspect right now.  Let’s see what else they do to have them make more sense and not just a misreading of the market.

[57] - The dream was never alive.

If Headley for 1 makes sense, Frazier for 2 makes more sense. If you land Machado before the second year, or get more confidence in Andujar, you trade Frazier for something. Just don’t give him a NTC.

I bet Frazier gets more than 2 years.

[47] If a team increases the chances of the postseason from 90% to 95% by trading away a 10% higher chance of the postseason for the following 5 years is that worth it?  To some teams, not to the Yankees.

Doing this kind of calculus is a good idea, although most of our discussions are centered around trading for a cost-controlled starter with 2+ years before free agency, so we’re looking at 2+ years where we see tangible benefit. And a 10% lower chance of the postseason in years 3 through 7 is huge (sounds like trading Torres to me).

And this calculus is pretty dynamic. Frazier’s likely value to the Yankees dropped a chunk when we acquired Stanton. If we jettison Ellsbury, it increases. If we trade Gardner, it increases.

[61] I don’t know how much Ellsbury changes that. Right now Ellsbury is a 5th OF. If someone gets injured, Frazier probably leapfrogs him into the 4th spot.

I bet Frazier gets more than 2 years.

I wouldn’t be surprised. Luckily, he hasn’t gotten such a deal yet, so maybe his market sucks. That’d be great for the Yankees.

[62] Maybe (I’d prefer that). Although I think without Ellsbury in the mix, an injury to one of Stanton, Judge, Gardner, and Hicks puts Frazier in a position to play nearly every day.

[63] The 3B market is pretty weird this winter.

The Longo trade filled one hole, the rich teams are waiting on Donaldson and Machado, and the cheap teams don’t really need what Frazier provides except at a discount price.  RAB pointed out that Frazier probably really wants two years at least as he’s 32, but I think teams learned from the 1B/DH market last year—Morales got 3 years, then Holliday got 1/11, and then Chris Carter got 1/3.5.  Nobody’s rushing to sign Frazier, even the teams for which he makes sense.

Some tool is posting at FG as Johnny Dickshot.  It isn’t me.  I used a different name when I used to post over there, and most of my posts consisted of reminding everyone how badly Dave Cameron missed on Cano.

67 Russian Bot.

It’s all fake news.

[48] Yeah, this is kind of where I’m at too. Add a cheap veteran infielder into the mix and see what the team looks like in April.

On a separate but related note, one thing to remember when we talk about the Yankees and their inside information is that while they might be bullish on Cole, they could also be bearish on Clint Frazier and want to deal him before another good-but-not-great season.

If he could be had for a one-year deal, Neil Walker would be an interesting name. Then have Torres play third for a year before moving to second next year when the Yankees sign either Donaldson or Machado.

I don’t want Gleyber to play anywhere but 2nd base (or SS if inexplicably Didi gets traded). Give the kid a position and makes whatever infield moves need to be made based on that.

40 days until pitchers and catchers report ?

OPaAhpV_d.jpg?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

[72]  I kind of agree.  I sort of doubt they throw Gleyber in at SS unless Didi gets hurt, G-d forbid.  Makes sense to me that he gets steady reps somewhere and I don’t care where although slightly prefer 3B.  Which I guess means I do care.

So would you be down with Walker on a one-year deal? That dude has 2 WAR years seemingly every year (that he plays a full season, of course). And he’s a switch-hitter, which helps for lineup construction.

Walker has 19 games at 3B,  Gleyber 15.  Unless the plan is for Gleyber to be a 3B long term I’m agin it.

Can the Yanks afford Neil Walker?  He made $17.2 million in 2017.

Neil Walker would be dandy on a one year deal, though he has had some injuries right?

Walker only made that much because the Mets gave him a qualifying offer. No way he makes that much in 2018. The only thing is if he gets a two-year deal. His injury issues MIGHT hurt him. He’d be worth $12 million on a one year deal. I’d prefer to see Toddfather get that deal, but I just don’t see him getting only a single year.

[58] I don’t agree at all about CC. On a rate basis he’s been one win worse than Darvish per year over the past two years and his signing is essentially no risk. Darvish is going to get $100+ million and would continue to work against the Halcap for at least 5 years. And at this point I think they’re pretty equally at risk of injury. CC has actually town 100 more innings going back to 2014.

Dervish is better, but the difference in contracts is huge.

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