The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Monday, April 23, 2012

Pitchers A vs. Pitchers B

PitchersHR/FBBB/BFK/BFGB%FB%LD%IFFB%
A5.6%7.4%19.4%35.8%36.7%20.4%7.1%
B16.2%6.2%20.9%37.1%35.6%22.3%5.0%

HR/FB: Home runs divided by fly balls (league average is around 10-11%)
BB/BF: walks divided by batters faced
K/BF: strikeouts divided by batters faced
GB%: percentage of batted balls that were ground balls
FB%: percentage of batted balls that were fly balls
LD%: percentage of batted balls that were line drives
IFFB%: percentage of batted balls that were infield fly balls

If this was all the data you had on two sets of pitchers, which one would you take?

How about if you also had this?

Pitchers A: xFIP of 3.92
Pitchers B: xFIP of 3.58

Lastly, figure out which of these RA/ERA/FIP go with which group of pitchers.

6.61 RA, 5.84 ERA, 4.52 FIP
2.62 RA, 2.54 ERA, 3.23 FIP

--Posted at 8:48 am by SG / 50 Comments | - (0)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

Lastly, figure out which of these RA/ERA/FIP go with which group of pitchers.

2012 Yankees starters vs 2012 Yankees bullpen

No.  And you didn’t answer the first or second question.

You have to think that the 6.61 RA goes with the 16.2% HR/FB, but that wouldn’t be very exciting. No clue who the pitchers are. I would guess something from the Red Sox series, but the RAs seem too low.

And I would take the group with the lower HR/FB rate, but statistically those lines are probably indistinguishable, assuming the sample is smallish.

If no one gets it I’ll give the answer after lunch, around 1 pm.

Actually how about Rangers vs Yankees pitching staffs starters? Looks like their HR/FB has been pretty low.

Garcia vs. Colon vs. Hughes vs. burnett vs. when does pettite respawn and save our rotation?

On a less cynical note, I’m looking forward to the first two pitching matchups of this series.

A: NYY road, B: TEX: home splits

The last group is pitchers after they were acquired by Cashman vs. pitchers after they were traded away by Cashman.

Question 1) I’d take pitcher B because I assume that large a gap in HR/FB% is in large part due to a small sample size so I’ll ignore it.  The K, BB and everything but LD% favors pitcher B.

Question 2) I’d still take pitcher B.

Question 3) I’d assume the higher RA would go to the similar pitcher with the much higher HR/FB%.

Since you never asked us to guess who the pitchers are I won’t say, but off the top of my head I have a good guess.  Then again I’m always wrong when I guess off the top of my head so… What do I win?

Actually it’s gonna be something like Hughes as a reliever vs. starter.

Actually how about Rangers vs Yankees pitching staffs starters? Looks like their HR/FB has been pretty low.

Ding ding ding.  A: Rangers’ starters vs. B: Yankees’ starters.  Good job Tree.

What do I win?

You get this.

[9]
No. PitcherS.

  What do I win?

You get this.

Well played.

Really, it shouldn’t be called Motown. That’s sacrilege.
Should be called Farnstown.
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/tiger-stadium-opened-100-years-ago-just-like-fenway-park—but-it-s-ignored-in-detroit.html

Time to up the HR/FB % for pitcher set A.

This is what I, and probably a bunch of you, given the context, guessed.
(We didn’t say anything, though, so no NOTHING!!! for us!)

It’s still surprising.

Is no NOTHING something?  Does that mean I have to sent out a bunch of prizes?

[13] Have they not tore it down yet?

Whatever. Detroit has enough money that it doesn’t need to lease that space out or make some revenue on real estate taxes.

So…

Two wins up in Boston, with the second one being an absolutely hilarious comeback win, torching the joke of a bullpen TWN has.  But… Pineda’s shoulder may be shot (shut down again after feeling weakness in his shoulder - to NY for an MRI w/dye to see if they can pick up something they missed with a normal MRI).  That’s a big downer. 

CC will get going, we know that.  Kuroda should, but we can’t really *count* on it.  Hughes is… Hughes.  Nova has earned (pre-ridiculous foot injury) Chien-Ming Wang status from me: I just trust him.  I don’t think he’s amazing, but I am calm when he’s pitching.  Garcia has turned back into a pumpkin. 

This calls for [drumroll] BattleCat!

Detroit has enough money that it doesn’t need to lease that space out or make some revenue on real estate taxes.

Trust me, the neighborhood Tiger Stadium is in is one where no one will be leasing or buying anything.  Might make a good slightly over-sized crack den though.

Garcia has turned back into a pumpkin.

I think they will shadow Phelps to Garcia and just make the leash shorter. He won’t be allowed to give up 5 runs next time. 3 at most. He’s now keeping Pettitte’s spot warm.

Hughes had his execution stayed. Not sure what will happen when Pineda comes back. I still though his last start was a corner turner. Going into it with such high expectations and then watching Nunez eff it up for you in the first contributed to that poor 1st inning performance. I expect good things out of him in Texas. 6+ IP, 2 ER.

Depending on how bad the shoulder is, Pineda could be an “if” not a “when” for 2012. 

The return of BattleCat, which we originally saw as a luxury/oddity, is now pretty important.  Of course, this is a 40-yr old pitcher who didn’t pitch last year.

Yeah, I’m assuming Pineda is out for 2012 and I think the Yankees should to.  I don’t like the ambiguity of shoulder tendinitis/weakness.  I’d be surprised if there isn’t some kind of tear in there.

So it’s possible the Yankees get nothing of value from him while losing a year of service time/cost control.

How do the Yankees continue to make deals with/for pitchers who never pitch for them?  This is the 2nd time in the last few years.  WTF is going on there?

I assume it’s impossible to include MRIs in physicals for players.

I’ve seen people asserting that the Yankees did an MRI as part of their evaluation of Pineda, and it was clean.

The thing is that MRIs aren’t perfect.  Apparently it’s particularly tough with shoulders.  Tears - sometimes significant ones - can be missed.

The MRI + dye is supposed to be better.  Maybe that needs to be standard.

It’s frustrating as hell.  My main worry about this trade was the whole “young pitchers get hurt” factor.  And here we go.  Sigh.  So, how about that Campos kid?

He’s probably going to get hurt soon.

[26] He throws too many strikes.

[24] This is the 2nd time in the last few years.

Well, for Pineda to not pitch for them, he’d have to be injured for 4.67 more years.

he’d have to be injured for 4.67 more years.

Basically a Pavano injury then.

[29] - Fair enough, still, this should keep happening.

My math is a little off. 4 and 5/6 more years. But yeah. A shoulder injury? WTF Cashman.

I am calm when he’s pitching.

This is the biggest compliment to give a pitcher, and exactly how I feel about Nova. Basically, the anti-AJ or anti-Hughes, where the feeling that it’s not if something will go wrong but when, and constantly prepping yourself for it like you’re watching a horror movie and you KNOW a jumpscare is coming.

Hughes had his execution stayed. Not sure what will happen when Pineda comes back. I still though his last start was a corner turner. Going into it with such high expectations and then watching Nunez eff it up for you in the first contributed to that poor 1st inning performance. I expect good things out of him in Texas. 6+ IP, 2 ER.

If you think Hughes is putting up that line against Texas’ offense, you clearly have been frequenting Tiger Stadium recently.

[33] We shall see. I’m sticking with my prediction. There’s a certain blogger that I would like to see eat his hat when Hughes rattles off 10 QS in a row.

[34] Just wait until Hughes is in the NL West in 2014 and you’ll get your 10 straight QS.

Hughes has pitched well down in Arlington before.  He has talent.  He has the pitches.  It’s not impossible that he could execute well enough to put up that line.

I certainly don’t expect it.  But it’s not totally crazy.

[34] I still (beyond all reason) hold out hope for Hughes, but I don’t see him being consistent enough inning to inning to shut down the Rangers.

I’ve given up hope for Hughes but when I look at all his numbers I feel like I’m being the irrational one.

The Rangers offense is good, but they’ll get shut out a few times this year.
Let’s not make too much of them because of a hot start.

Whenever things like Pineda happen, I can’t help but think… did Seattle know?

Given the way the first Montero trade went down, I think Seattle may have known something.  But it’s on the Yankees if they didn’t do the due diligence to discover it themselves.  Maybe they should have sprung for the MRI with dye instead of reading Fangraphs.

instead of reading Fangraphs

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzing!

Given the way the first Montero trade went down, I think Seattle may have known something.  But it’s on the Yankees if they didn’t do the due diligence to discover it themselves.

Exactly.

Hughes has been so maddening that there is not a stance you can have on him that does not make you irrational. If you believe he can pull himself together you have to ignore the fact that his performances have been terrible. If you believe he’s past redemption you have to ignore his stuff and underlying numbers/potential and past flashes of dominance. In conclusion, Hughes drives me crazy and we should expect nothing and everything.

reading Fangraphs

When Cashman mentioned he’d been reading Fangraphs for info on Pineda’s velocity, I was certainly troubled.

But it’s on the Yankees if they didn’t do the due diligence to discover it themselves.

While there’s a feeling that the Yankees could have done more, it’s not clear that the injury was necessarily there at the time of the trade, or that they’ll find anything with the dye MRI, etc.  In other words, there’s not much to do aside from following the “no such thing as a pitching prospect” axiom.  But there is definitely a feeling the Yankees could have done more.

If there were something they could have done, but didn’t, someone should be fired.

Montero is OPSing 629, if that makes anyone feel better.

[45] And if that someone is Levine, we all win.

[47]
Ted, if he’s only fired, he’ll still be out there somewhere, and we and our children and our children’s children will never be safe.

Hughes has been so maddening that there is not a stance you can have on him that does not make you irrational.

My view is that he sucks and is a bust as a starter. Completely rational, given what we’ve seen.

I do harbor an irrational hope that I’m wrong. But that hasn’t happened in decades.

Hughes has been so maddening that there is not a stance you can have on him that does not make you irrational.

Agreed.

Page 1 of 1 pages:

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