Wednesday, April 13, 2011
Phil Hughes Through Two Starts
Yes, Phil Hughes' fastball velocity is down. We get it. Is that his only problem? Probably not, but it sure makes it harder for him to be successful with his other pitches.
Some readers have commented on his location issues. I haven't really noticed Hughes sitting in the middle of the zone in his last two starts, but let's take a look at how he's locating compared to the last three seasons.
The major difference so far has been Hughes' attempt to come in on lefties. The main reason for this is that he's been relying on his cutter more over his first two starts, while shying away from his velocity-challenged fastball.
| FB% | CHNG% | CURV% | SLD% | CUT% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008-10 | 63.5% | 4.4% | 20.5% | 1.3% | 10.2% |
| 2011 | 11.9% | 6.0% | 13.4% | 0.0% | 68.7% |
| FB% | CHNG% | CURV% | SLD% | CUT% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008-10 | 61.5% | 0.1% | 17.0% | 3.2% | 18.1% |
| 2011 | 12.9% | 1.4% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 65.7% |
Having to rely more on his cutter has not produced positive results for Hughes. Batters are hitting .412 off it, compared to .290 in his three previous seasons; he's only induced a handful of swings and misses on the pitch as well. In his three previous seasons, Hughes was able to get opposing righties to chase his cutter out of the zone 38.4 percent of the time. So far this season, he's produced just 2 total swings on 21 cutters out of the zone to RHB. This could be a sign that his location is somewhat iffy. But it could also be a side effect of the ineffectiveness of his fastball. With batters seeing the cutter more, it's likely easier for them to lay off the pitch when it's thrown to the outside edge of the plate. And the reduced velocity on his fastball means batters have more time to identify the pitch, differentiating it from the cutter.
| P | PA | K% | BB% | Miss% | Strk% | Foul% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008-10 | 2806 | 666 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 18.2% | 62.7% | 46.6% |
| 2011 | 67 | 17 | 0.0% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 70.1% | 48.5% |
| P | PA | K% | BB% | Miss% | Strk% | Foul% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008-10 | 2700 | 676 | 22.0% | 5.5% | 21.5% | 67.6% | 46.2% |
| 2011 | 70 | 16 | 6.3% | 18.8% | 6.7% | 55.7% | 53.3% |
With only two starts under his belt, you can't really get too bent out of shape about any of these numbers, although they don't inspire much confidence going forward. His swing and miss rate is pretty awful even for the limited sample. Basically, opposing batters are making contact on 95 percent of their swings against Hughes. He's obviously not going to be racking up the Ks at that rate.
On the plus side, with all that extra contact, Hughes' walk rate is down nearly 50% against lefties.
All heatmaps and data courtesy of the In Depth Baseball analytics platform
Comments
On the plus side, with all that extra contact, Hughes’ walk rate is down nearly 50% against lefties.
Nice one. Other than all that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?
During Hughes’ last start, Colon’s fastball out of the bullpen was like a tiki bar in the Mojave.
Phil’s new cutter actually looks pretty good, but if you’re throwing an 85 mph pitch 65+% of the time it’s going to get hammered. I remain optimistic about his curve, which looks really good and might play up if he could locate his FB.
But Hughes is a FB pitcher without his FB. So he sucks balls.
What were the preseason odds of the Sox having, after 11 games, the worst record in the majors? Any way of reviewing the Monte Carlos from the Diamond Mind blowout? It has to be less than 1%.
[4] Whatever it is makes the Ivy giggle. Also, ESPN sez: “The game was the first between two teams that were 2-8 or worse through 10 games since April 30, 1918, when the Brooklyn Robins beat the Boston Braves at Ebbets Field.”
Can someone please explain this site to me? I got here by googling “Madison Bumgarner naked pictures.”
What were the preseason odds of the Sox having, after 11 games, the worst record in the majors? Any way of reviewing the Monte Carlos from the Diamond Mind blowout? It has to be less than 1%.
Their odds of starting 0-6 were 1.557%.
Their odds of starting 2-9 were 0.038%.
For comparison’s sake, the Astros had a 5.0% chance of starting the year 0-6, and a 0.5% chance of starting 2-9.
[7] Looks odd. Was that the odd of starting 2-9 exactly, or 2-9 or worse? Won’t change much I guess.
A coin flip has a chance of 67/2048 of giving 2 or less heads, so around 3.2%. The Astros must be worse than a fair coin, no? A coin has a round 0.05% shot at landing heads 11 times, too.
[7] Ah, the rarified air of Fenway Commons.
Another week of this and it’s time to call all your Sox friends and offer them the buyout on their AL East bets.
They won’t take it, but you can then remind them of the offer later when they’re begging to get out.
[6] You were looking to garner naked bums so you landed here.
Looks odd. Was that the odd of starting 2-9 exactly, or 2-9 or worse? Won’t change much I guess.
2-9 exactly, although I may have done something wrong.
The Astros must be worse than a fair coin, no?
Yeah, they were generally between 39-41% win probability in each game so far.
they were generally between 39-41% win probability in each game so far.
And someone picked this team to win the NL Central…
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