Monday, September 6, 2010
Phil Hughes and his Home Field Disadvantage
Phil Hughes stormed out of the gate this season, winning 10 of his first 11 decisions and putting up an RA of 3.17 through through his first 13 games. Opposing batters hit .224/.281/.329 over that stretch.
However, hidden in those first 13 starts was something that’s starting to become more and more apparent, and that was the fact that Hughes has not pitched as well at home as he had on the road.
| Split | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | FB% | GB% | LD% |
| Home | 43.7 | 36 | 18 | 18 | 7 | 14 | 40 | 45.5% | 35.0% | 19.5% |
| Road | 38.7 | 32 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 11 | 38 | 45.2% | 33.7% | 21.2% |
| Total | 82.3 | 68 | 29 | 29 | 7 | 25 | 78 | 45.4% | 34.4% | 20.3% |
| Split | HR/FB | BIP | BABIP | RA | ERA | FIP | xFIP | Stk% | BB/BF | K/BF |
| Home | 12.5% | 123 | .250 | 3.71 | 3.71 | 4.41 | 4.16 | 67.0% | 7.9% | 22.6% |
| Road | 0.0% | 104 | .308 | 2.56 | 2.56 | 2.09 | 3.83 | 69.3% | 7.1% | 24.7% |
| Total | 6.8% | 227 | .277 | 3.17 | 3.17 | 3.32 | 4.01 | 68.0% | 7.6% | 23.6% |
FB%: Percentage of batted balls that were fly balls
GB%: Percentage of batted balls that were ground balls
LD%: Percentage of batted balls that were line drives
HR/FB: Percentage of fly balls that were home runs
BABIP: Batting average on balls in play
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
xFIP: FIP using league average HR/FB rate
Stk%: Percentage of pitchers that were strikes
BB/BF: Percentage of batters faced who walked
K/BF: Percentage of batters who struck out
Hughes’s batted ball types against and other peripherals were pretty consistent home and away, but at home he’d given up all seven of the home runs he’d allowed to this point. Because of that, the disparity between his home and road FIP was pretty large. If we adjust for the big difference in his HR/FB rate by using xFIP, which substitutes the league average rate of 11.1% HR/FB for actual HRs allowed and regresses BABIP to league average, the gap between his home and road performance narrows quite a bit.
So although there was a big difference in his results to this point, it wasn’t necessarily really indicative of anything other than small sample size fluctuation.
Unfortunately, since then Hughes’s performance has fallen off markedly.
| Split | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | FB% | GB% | LD% |
| Home | 50.3 | 56 | 34 | 33 | 12 | 16 | 33 | 52.7% | 33.9% | 13.3% |
| Road | 22.7 | 25 | 12 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 44.0% | 38.7% | 17.3% |
| Total | 73.0 | 81 | 46 | 45 | 15 | 24 | 50 | 50.0% | 35.4% | 14.6% |
| Split | HR/FB | BIP | BABIP | RA | ERA | FIP | xFIP | Stk% | BB/BF | K/BF |
| Home | 13.8% | 165 | .288 | 6.08 | 5.90 | 5.94 | 5.31 | 63.8% | 7.4% | 15.3% |
| Road | 9.1% | 75 | .306 | 4.76 | 4.76 | 4.48 | 4.84 | 66.9% | 7.9% | 16.8% |
| Total | 12.5% | 240 | .293 | 5.67 | 5.55 | 5.49 | 5.17 | 64.8% | 7.6% | 15.8% |
Hughes has been much worse overall since then, but his performance at home has gotten even worse. He’s allowed both a higher rate of fly balls combined with a higher than average rate of HR/FB. Suffice it to say, that’s a combination that is not conducive to success. His road HR/FB has corrected to be closer towards league average as well, although you can still see the gap in his peformance if you look at his FIP and xFIP.
As far as why this is happening, I have no idea. Is he tiring? Has the league adjusted to him? Are his mechanics out of wack? It could be any of these things in addition to multitudes of others. Possibly all of them in some sort of combination.
In the big picture, we need to look at everything Hughes has done this year, because that tells us more than two samples chosen using selective endpoints.
| Split | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | FB% | GB% | LD% |
| Home | 94.0 | 92 | 52 | 51 | 19 | 30 | 73 | 49.7% | 34.4% | 16.0% |
| Road | 61.3 | 57 | 23 | 23 | 3 | 19 | 55 | 44.7% | 35.8% | 19.6% |
| Total | 155.3 | 149 | 75 | 74 | 22 | 49 | 128 | 47.8% | 34.9% | 17.3% |
| Split | HR/FB | BIP | BABIP | RA | ERA | FIP | xFIP | Stk% | BB/BF | K/BF |
| Home | 13.3% | 288 | .271 | 4.98 | 4.88 | 5.23 | 4.78 | 65.2% | 7.7% | 18.6% |
| Road | 3.8% | 179 | .307 | 3.38 | 3.38 | 2.97 | 4.20 | 68.3% | 7.5% | 21.6% |
| Total | 9.9% | 467 | .285 | 4.35 | 4.29 | 4.34 | 4.55 | 66.5% | 7.6% | 19.8% |
The difference in his batted ball types at home and on the road is not really statistically significant.
| Std | FB% | GB% | LD% |
| 2 | 54.1% | 40.4% | 21.2% |
| 1 | 50.9% | 37.6% | 19.3% |
| Mean | 47.8% | 34.9% | 17.3% |
| -1 | 44.6% | 32.2% | 15.4% |
| -2 | 41.4% | 29.4% | 13.5% |
We shouldn’t necessarily think that Hughes has some kind of issue that prevents him from pitching well at home. Players do generally pitch better at home than on the road, so if anything we should probably expect that Hughes would do the same going forward unless we see more evidence that he can’t.
Still, I have to admit that the specter of Hughes starting in the postseason right now is not exactly one that fills me with warm fuzzies, if by some miracle the Yankees get there. But I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that he pitches well enough over the rest of the year to deserve the chance.
Comments
Anyone know if Reggie Sanders is still available?
In all seriousness, wasn’t he the #1 prospect in baseball a few years ago? Did the injuries mess him up or something? (Doubt it, since he was great out of the pen last year.)
As often, I wonder about the statistical (and perhaps systematic - maybe he’s faced better teams at home) uncertainties on the two quantities being compared.
Did the injuries mess him up or something?
Hughes did have a better curve in 2007 (he pulled his hamstring v. Texas throwing one). It’s possible that he lost the feel for it, given the layoff the injuries imposed, and then having to focus on throwing harder stuff (FB,cutter) as a reliever last season. He’s still only 24. I expect it to return, along with the changeup.
I’ve read that the Yankees retooled Hughes’s curve, never really understood why.
Whatever, I hate that rotund bovine.
Honestly, I do expect him to be better next season, but don’t think he can be trusted at all going forward this season/post-season (should Selig forget to give TB and Bos their automatic bids).
In all seriousness, wasn’t he the #1 prospect in baseball a few years ago? Did the injuries mess him up or something? (Doubt it, since he was great out of the pen last year.)
In all seriousness, what do you expect out of him? All players struggle at times.
I am optimistic about his future, not as a top of the rotation starter, but I do think he can be a very valuable starter going forward.
Mooo.
I’ve read that the Yankees retooled Hughes’s curve, never really understood why.
When? They changed his repertoire when they drafted him. He threw a slider in HS, which they did not like. Anyway, it’s been a long time since Hughes was putting guys away with the curve, making it difficult for me to distinguish between “they retooled his curve and now it sucks” and “he lost his curve and the things they’ve tried to get it back haven’t worked.” Hopefully it’s the latter. And hopefully, it’s “yet.”
BTW, aren’t cows supposed to be fat? In fact, isn’t “fat” a key component of the very essence of “cow”? Would anyone really prefer a thin cow?
I recall his curve being a big 12-6 looper when he came up. This year it’s been more slurvey… 1-7. I have a vague memory of reading something that said that the 1-7 was his “old” curve and the 12-6 was his new/changed curve. This year he went back.
If I’m remembering it right - and I may not be.
[10, 12] His curve has definitely changed since he came up to the bigs. I also recall it as a big, looping pitch when he came up. I forget when exactly it changed (but I think it was at least before the 2009 season), but the change - which I can recall the Yankees broadcasters talking about - was to make his curve much “tighter” than it used to be.
a thin cow is like a chicken that can’t lay eggs (and with no head to cut-off).
Don’t have a cow, man.
Except the Yankees roster gots a herd.
“All players struggle at times.”
ERA since May 17 has been above 5, that’s quite a long time. I think he is what he is, at least for this season. Maybe he has a couple well-timed quality starts left in him.
Maybe he has a couple well-timed quality starts left in him.
For his career? You’re probably right.
Off topic.
SANCHEZ LEADS SOUL EATER +5 TO SECOND-ROUND OF RLYW PLAYOFFS
Yahoo, TX - On a team of 16 aces, Anibal Sanchez is a man among boys.
Leading the charge against the first-ranked Angry Bunnymen, Sanchez threw 7 shutout innings to propel Soul Eater +5 into the second round of the RLYW playoffs. Sanchez showed flashes of the electric stuff SE+5 (144-133-17) thought they were getting when they drafted him, with a 7:1 K:BB ratio and an other-worldly 0.160 OBPA. Soul Eater +5 defeated the Angry Bunnymen, 10-4.
“I just went out there and did my thing,” Sanchez said through a translator. “It’s fun to be able to go out there and get strikes and help my team wang[sic].”
Career journeyman Jim Thome also came up big for SE+5, launching two home runs and driving in four on his way to a 0.500/1.125 week. The 53-year-old free-swinging veteran also scored three times. Closer Huston Street was perfect in twelve innings of relief with three saves, and SE+5 also got 39 combined shutout innings from starter Jordan Zimmerman and relievers David Aardsma and Brad Lidge.
“Just a great all-around effort this week,” a surprised manager Clay Hoadley remarked after the game. “I knew I’d put together a pretty solid team, but everyone stepped up this week. I don’t know if it’s something I said or the pure, uncut crystal meth I put in the coffee in the clubhouse this week, but [redacted], those guys were playing out of their minds this week.”
The Bunnymen (177-102-15) collapsed down the stretch, with first baseman Albert Pujols mailing in a 0.130 OBP, 0.050 SLG week. “Pujols was a [redacted]ing train wreck this week,” a visibly agitated Bunnybeef said, with the first baseman standing within earshot. “First round of the playoffs and that [redacted]ing bag of [redacted] gives us one [redacted]ing RBI? That’s [redacted]ing horse[redacted].” Asked about starting pitcher Trevor Cahill, who contributed 30 outs of 7.20 ERA ball, manager Bunnybeef’s face flushed and he began spontaneously vomiting at reporters’ feet.
The Bunnymen were once again without their preseason ace, Erik Bedard, who missed yet another week after having elective colorectal surgery. It was the fifth time this season Bedard missed extended time for proctological reasons, landing on the DL twice earlier in the season for what was only described as a “backdoor-bleaching incident”.
Soul Eater +5 advances to face the #4-ranked Team Name TBD in the semifinals this week. The Angry Bunnymen will face fifth-ranked Ruben’s Empenadas in the consolation bracket, which manager Bunnybeef admitted he was unaware actually existed until he saw this link this morning.
FanGraphs now crowd-sourcing a prediction for Jeter’s next contract. For any interested in voting…
As for Jeter, I’m guessing 4 years in the range of $17M-$21M per.
SG, if I’m reading your SD chart right, that seems to be saying that Hughes FB% on the road is one SD away from the mean, no?
I thought Hughes was supposed to be a groundball pitcher when he came up? I also thought the curve was fully developed in 2007, when he was brought up. I know they tightened it up at the start of ‘09, though (which added 5-10 mph to it. It used to be a big, slow breaking ball, 68-74 mph or so)
I would advocate doing a PitchFX check of early season vs. late season to see if there has been any change in his pitches, but with such a SSS as well as the variances in ballpark measurements (at least for velocity) I’m not sure how useful that would be.
[22] Hughes got a lot of groundballs in the minors, but it hasn’t translated to the majors. I’ve read some articles on the conversion rate for batted ball distributions from majors to minors, but can’t recall the conclusions or where I read them.
I’m beginning to think that Girardi’s beginning to think that Hughes belongs in the pen in October. Given their concerns about his workload. Given that he was stellar there last year (though not in the post-season IIRC). This would depend, presumably, on Vazquez putting together 4 not-horrible starts, or (also implausibly) Nova is lights-out for a few weeks.
I’m beginning to think that B-man’s beginning to think that Girardi’s beginning to think that Hughes belongs in the pen in October.
Next.
SG, if I’m reading your SD chart right, that seems to be saying that Hughes FB% on the road is one SD away from the mean, no?
Right, but that’s not really statistically significant.
I don’t have time to do a full Pitch FX thing right now, but here are the numbers on Hughes after his first four starts this season from this post.
Pitch: percent thrown (avg velocity)
Fastball: 54.4% (92.3 mph)
Cutter: 29.3% (88.0 mph)
Curve: 14.2% (76.4 mph)
Change: 2.1% (83.9 mph)
And here are Hughes’s full-season numbers.
Fastball: 64.3% (92.6 mph)
Cutter: 17.2% (88.6 mph)
Curve: 16.0% (76.0 mph)
Change: 2.5% (84.9 mph)
The first numbers are from Pitch FX and the full season numbers are from Fangraphs so there may be some differences in pitch classification, but from what this shows us:
- His velocity is the same now as it was at the start of the season
- He’s not throwing the cutter as much, which makes sense as a starter
[21] I put 3/66, but I don’t figure his contract will be exactly that. I think he’ll be along the lines of 3/60, with a 4th year option for 20M or a 6M buyout, or thereabouts. So basically, he’s guaranteed about the same $ he’s been getting for the past 3 years. After that I also expect some bonuses based on PT and “marketing” bonuses for hits, and he could get in total about 4/100.
Maybe he’ll continue to play poorly through the PS, and Cashman will be able to knock some $$‘s and/or guaranteed years off of that. But I believe that contract works from a PR standpoint, from a salary standpoint (since Yanks won’t be really adding any), and isn’t *too* long a deal. From an, “is Jeter worth it” standpoint? On the field, likely not, off the field, I don’t think any of us have any idea what Jeter is really worth to the Yankees. Hopefully Cashman does and pays him accordingly, even if it seems too high to us.
I like Mike K’s analysis of the Jeterian contract sitch.
Man, that is some ugly prose I just wrote.
Jeter has contractual intangibles.
[18] is really funny, even though I don’t know what it’s about.
As for Jeter, I’m guessing 4 years in the range of $17M-$21M per.
Can’t wait to see the 2014 left side of the Yankees infield with 40 year old Jeter and 39 year old ARod!
Can’t wait to see the 2014 left side of the Yankees infield with 40 year old Jeter and 39 year old ARod!
I doubt you’ll see that many times, if it makes you feel better…Zimmerman’s contract is up in 2013, and if the Yankees haven’t replaced ARod internally (as a 3B) by then, I think he’ll be wearing pinstripes. Jeter could be tougher, as there is a lack of quality SS it is worth paying big $$‘s for…
[18] is really funny, even though I don’t know what it’s about.
The #1 seed in RLYW’s Fantasy Baseball League (1 of 2) was bounced in the first round of the playoffs. Nice creative piece put together there by bunnybeef.
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