The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:

Tuesday, February 5, 2013

NYDN: Yankees’ Rodriguez thinks team and MLB are out to get him after recent PED scandal

Rodriguez is deeply concerned about the allegations, according to the source, and has told friends that the documents linking him to Bosch are forgeries. Rodriguez has repeatedly denied the PED allegations through a spokesman who declined further comment on Monday.

Rodriguez might contend that the listings of the drugs allegedly dispensed to him and the other players are forgeries, but they do line up closely with dates of specific games and cities the games were played in, giving MLB something of a blueprint for linking Bosch and the drugs to A-Rod and the other players. Bosch has denied the claims in the reports through his Miami lawyer.

If the Yankees were going to go to the trouble of forging all this stuff to get rid of Rodriguez’s bad contract, shouldn’t they have thrown Mark Teixiera in there while they were at it?

--Posted at 7:53 am by SG / 50 Comments | - (0)


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If the Yankees are not willing to re-sign Cano after this season at market price, then shouldn’t they be looking to trade him now that the team is not even a 90 win team?

They may think they’re a 90 win team, even if CAIRO does not.

I don’t think it’s realistic to think they would start re-building after signing Pettitte, Kuroda and Mo.  They are going to make a push and hope they get hot in October. 

Plus another year of development for their minor leaguers will give them a better idea of what they might need going forward.  Do they trade Cano for infield or outfield help, catching, or for more pitching?  It would be helpful to see what David Adams/Corban Joseph/Slade Heathcott/Tyler Austin/Gary Sanchez/Mason Williams do before targeting something.

[0] - At the same time it’s a little absurd that every time the slightest thing happens the Yankees announce they are looking for ways to void the contract.  They say they know they can’t do anything unless MLB takes action yet still announce it before the ink on the paper dries and long before MLB has had a chance to take action.

That, and their throwing him to the lions and offering him up as a sacrificial lamb during the playoffs last year doesn’t sit right with me.

You know they are treating him poorly when Jeter’s position on him is much more supportive and rational than theirs.

Are the Yankees really announcing they want to void the contract, or are “sources familiar with the Yankees’ thinking” telling their lackeys in the media?

[2] I agree that is better to wait and see what you need before targetting, but at the end you have to look for the best talent available, right?

What is a realistic package for Cano?

I wish this were happening to the Red Sox because I would find this conspiracy angle pretty hilarious.

[5] Has to be something similar to the Lee to Texas trade, right?

That was Lee + Mark Lowe for Smoak, Blake Beaven, Josh Lueke and Matt Lawson (Beaven and Smoak were 1st round picks and Smoak was a top flight prospect at the time).

[7] Lee to Texas was a mid season rental, not a complete season rental. By trading for Cano before the begining of the season a team could offer him arbitration and net draft picks, too.

And Cano is a better player than Cliff Lee was at the time of the trade.

That Lee trade was when you could still get draft picks for a player who wasn’t on your team the whole year, right?

[8] OK, when Lee was traded to Seattle from the Phillies (following a dominant PS), the Phillies received Phillipe Aumont, Tyson Gillies and Juan Ramirez. If you consider Cano to be better, you could expect the package to be a bit better than that. IMO, the package Seattle recieved was better.

Rodriguez doesn’t owe the Yankees anything. I don’t blame him for not bending over backwards to fit the team’s vision of what players in pinstripes should look like, but a little respect flowing in both directions is always nice and it will probably lead to better baseball in the long run.

Before you start imagining what you could get for Cano, you really have to identify what teams are even realistic trade destinations.  It has to be a contender with a hole at 2B which doesn’t mind paying $15M for him in 2013 and either locking him up long-term or letting him go after the year. 

Then you can start thinking about what that team has that you’d be willing to take back in a Cano trade.

[quote[a little respect flowing in both directions is always nice and it will probably lead to better baseball in the long run.

Hitting the ball harder more consistently while remaining on the field more to do it would probably lead to better baseball in the long run.  Not sure I’m convinced that the rest of it really has much effect on the quality of baseball the team will play.

As to Rodriguez’s continued and insistent indignation - so now we are faced with the question:

Is A-Rod a Lie-Telling Blackfoot Palmeiro or a Truth-Telling Whitefoot Clemens?

[13] Toronto, Chicago (AL), Detroit, KC, Oakland, Atlanta, STL, LAD.

All of these teams are contenders or on the cusp of being and would be vastly improved by Cano. I highly doubt the Yankees would trade to Toronto and I’m unsure if KC or Oakland could afford Cano this year (or after), althought I could see Oakland picking him up for a 1 year run and grabbing the draft pick. Atlanta would probably have some $ issues as well.

IMO, Chicago (AL), Detroit, STL and LAD are the reasonable trade targets.

Cano would move Detroit from division favorites to AL favorites and Chi up to a serious contender for the AL central. STL and LAD would be division favorites with a Cano addition.

[16] What about Baltimore? They really need a 2B and they have pretty good prospects, too.

[17] It’s a possibility, I forgot about them. But I also doubt the Yankees will trade within the division.

Trading Cano would be the biggest white flag. The fan base is already restless. They’d have to be 15 games out at the break before they did it.

Oakland could be interesting.  They’re not TOTALLY broke, they did make Beltre a significant offer, and they have problems attracting free agents.  Jemile Weeks hasn’t really worked out at second.  Beane would love year of Cano at that price and the draft pick after, and they would be a real contender in that division even considering the Mike Trouts of Los Anaheim.

That said, it won’t happen.

[16] Oakland just traded for Lowrie.  Cano obviously >>>> Lowrie, but I think this would take them out of the running.

Chicago their #1 prospect only is in A+, so he’s years away from helping.  However they do have a grade-B (Sickels) SS/2B in AAA.  So Sanchez (AAA) is a must, and Chicago may be willing to give him up.  On top of that, I’d LOVE to get Hawkins (B+, their #1), but IDK if Chicago would give their top-2.  So after that their other B- prospects (only 2 B or better), only one has played at all above A+, and that’s only 20 games.  Actually, it doesn’t look like they have much upper-minors experience at all in their top-10, and none are highly rated.  So Chicago…I think if they gave Sanchez and Hawkins, plus some other stuff it would be tempting.  Yankees basically punting on 2013 (unless Joseph is much better than expected) but have a 2B of the future, and/or some great trade chips.  I’d say probably pass though.

Detroit has to start with Castellanos, who Yanks could use at 3B or OF, potentially as soon as 2014.  Their #6 guy (Suarez, SS) is a B- and only just completed A ball, but has a chance to make AA next year, which means could be ready for big leagues in 2015…when Jeter’s contract will be up.  So I think Tigers’ #1 and #6, plus some filler.

Dodgers…honestly not impressed.  All of their top prospects are far away, like A-ball far away.  Or have huge question marks b/c they played in Cuba or Korea, and only have limited sample of playing ball in minors.

Finally, St. Louis.  This is the place I could see it happening.  Either Taveras or Miller to start.  Taveras replaces Granderson in 2014, Miller would start year in AAA but with a chance to earn a spot in rotation.  Miller could be good enough to (almost) make up for Cano being gone, and of course he’s a building block.  I’d add Kolten Wong (2B, ready in 2014, either Cano replacement or big trade chip if Jospeh impresses).  Add to them one of the 3 3B between 10 and 12 on Sickels’s list, which is a mix of great upside, great glove questionable hitting, and a guy who does everything well but nothing spectacular.  All 3 are a ways away (Rookie, A-, and A were their levels), but adds some 3B competetion if Bichette doesn’t work out.

So that’s it for me really.  St. Louis, with 3 of their top 12.  Either Miller or Taveras, Wong, and a young 3B prospect.

The Yankees can trade Cano and then make a run for him when he hits free agency. The only downside will be giving up a draft pick (no big at all) and not contending this season.

[19] I agree in general, but I think if it’s a blockbuster trade they may be able to get away with it.  Basically the St. Louis trade I outlined.  Enough people know who Taveras is, and also Miller.  And of course Miller could be on the diamond in April, contending for ROY.  But basically, that’s it.

The other possibilities would need to get more teams involved, I think.  To get players good enough both to be worth trading Cano for, AND also be good for PR.  E.g. Cano to Texas (would need a 3rd team to take Kinsler) getting either Profar, or Olt+ back.  Profar *should* move Jeter to 2B, but could play 2B instead.  IDK why Texas WOULD do this, but it’s the type of return Yankees need.  Or some trade that involves Team 3 getting Cano (maybe LAD), and Yankees getting Stanton.  That would be something like Yankees sending Austin and…maybe Marshall to Fl, and Dodgers sending a couple of top prospects to Fl as well.  That could make some sense b/c I don’t think either LAD or Yankees have enough to get Stanton on their own, and I wouldn’t give up Cano for what LAD has.  But together they may have enough prospects to make it work, with LAD getting Cano.

[21] Thanks for doing the other 1/2 of the work for me.

There are a few other dark horses that could try to swing a trade for Cano like the aforementioned O’s, the Mariners and SD. But realistically I highly doubt the Yankees will be dealing Cano before the season starts. If the team ends up being bad they might deal him during the summer.

[22] Easier said than done.  Cliff Lee did it, yes (traded from Philly signed there a year later).  However, if Yankees don’t contend this season - and look particularly poor in doing so - Cano may be less inclined to come back.  Which could also happen if he’s there.  But a 90-win team in contention the last week looks better than an 84 win team out of it early.  Also, I can totally see Cano as not the type of player to say, “it’s just a business”.  I think he’d take it personally if Yanks traded him.  That’s just POOMA from me, so…

[23] I thought about TX too, but they have such a logjam in the MIF that I don’t think they’d be all that interested.

If the Yankees do trade Cano, I would want them to trade him to Atlanta because that would make the NL east battle between ATL and WAS amazing. Also, they could get Beachy in return.

[23] With a player like Cano, a multi-team trade is most likely because of the huge return he demands and the lack of matching needs/strengths of most teams MiL/ML rosters.

[27] Yeah exactly.  Really the only team I see matching up well for the Yankees getting back what they need - AND having a need for Cano - is St. Louis.  But other than that something with a 3-way - which always adds more spice - is most likely.  Of course, those are also the most difficult.

Texas only works in a scenario where they also trade Kinsler.  But yeah that’s not likely to happen.

The Yankees would need to be REALLY bad I think to trade Cano at deadline.  Like, be 40-60 or something.  Even a few games under .500 - like 47-53 (or whatever) I think they’d still think of themselves as in it.  Plenty of recent examples of teams in that range record-wise who have made playoffs.

Didn’t Bill James say that it’s impossible to get equal value back when trading a future Hall of Famer?  And Cano could be a HOFer.  However, “equal value” is not of course the only consideration.

[29] True. That’s why the Yankees won’t trade Arod or Jeter for 3 top 30 prospects, right?

[29] Intesting point. If the Yanks don’t plan to re-sign Cano in 2014 and if they’re out of the race in 2013, then Cano has almost no value to them. He merely helps them be less embarassed in the way that they fail to make the post season.

BTW I expect the Yanks to be competitive, so this scenario isn’t going to happen.

[31] I think it is pretty unlikely but still a possibility, the Yankees are relying a lot on old players, especially pitchers. I don’t think the Yankees have a better chance to be significantly worse than their projections than significantly better.

The NYY could easily win 90+ games this year.  Yes, they aren’t projected to win quite that many, but there are pretty significant error bars around all of the projections, right?

Trading Cano means the Yankees might not even break .500.  If they trade him and thus immediately fall to that level, what is the scenario for getting back to a 95-win team? 

Maybe I’m failing to understand where others are coming from, but ISTM there should be some middle ground between “The Yankees are prohibitive favorites to win the division” and “The Yankees are no longer favorites to win the division, and therefore it’s time to trade away our best players and suck for an indefinite number of years.”  Why can’t they just COMPETE with the other ALE contenders on roughly equal terms?  I seriously doubt the other teams in the ALE or the league have exactly written off the Yankees this year.

[33] We are not talking about trading Cano because the Yankees are not favorites this year. We are talking about trading Cano if the Yankees do not plan to re-sign him after the season. I think it’s pretty obvious trading Cano would punt the 2013 season, but if you aren’t planning on having him in 2014+ swapping him for younger, cost controlled players who will play in 2014+ is a good idea.

In related news (to getting top prospects)...RAB has commentary on Keith Law’s top 100 prospects.

Highlights: Sanchez 18th, and likely to stick at C long term.

Williams 35th, defense is already big-league caliber

Austin 52nd, defense adequate chance to become average

Heathcott 57th, “has a special mix of strength and quickness that might put him among the top 20 prospects in the game in a year”

[33 & 34] I think the Yankees are in a position this year where they should keep Cano.  Even if you aren’t planning on having him for 2014, because it’s hard to get enough return to justify it. Definitely, they’re a team which isn’t a favorite right now, but is clearly in contention.  I mentioned on the last thread, that even if CAIRO 100% nailed the talent level and playing time of every player - and Yankees are currently an 89 win team - that just means they’re likely to win between 81 and 97 games once you bring inluck/run distribution.  Trading Cano - assuming Joseph/Adams is 1 win - means you’re an 85 win team on paper, with a 78-93 win swing.  I don’t think it makes sense to do that, personally.  Especially b/c I doubt it’s a given at this point that the Yankees won’t resign Cano, and I don’t think they’ve made a definite decision.

However, there are ALWAYS situations where it makes sense to trade the player.  Basically, they need to get a player that can help in 2013 (Stanton probably ADDS a win by making Ichiro a 4th OF, Miller may only lose 2 wins, Taveras maybe 3), and (for less than Stanton) some other stuff to either help later or give more trade chips.  I doubt highly that would happen.  But it’s an interesting exercise.

[33]  The rest of the ALE may not have given up on the Yankees this year.  BUT I HAVE!!!!

Yeah, the Yankees look too good on paper right now to scuttle the season. Especially since 2014 might suck, might as well take their shots this season. All you need to do is make the playoffs to have a legit shot at the World Series. The Cardinals and the Orioles were clearly the two worst teams in the playoffs last year and the Cardinals barely missed making the World Series and the Orioles barely missed making the American League Championship Series.

Hey SG, I was just looking through your last CAIRO projections a bit. CAIRO has Matt Harrison at 5.2 WAR in 177 IP, which seems off considering a number of pitchers projeced to less WAR have both better rate stats and more IP. I mean Matt Harrison is a solid pitcher, but I’m not sure he should be projecting better than Price, King Felix, Hamels, etc.

That sounds screwy.  I’ll take a look at it.

Now we know where the Yankee adjustment went.

Apparently they’re also out to get Cervelli.

We should have known when Cervelli put up a .500 .OBP last season. The Bonds-Cervelli comps weren’t out of line, it turns out. I slugged a guy who suggested that last September, guess the lawsuit is going to stick.

We were all fools for thinking Cervelli came by that warning track power naturally

[44] Imagine how many of those infield hits were PED aided!

Of course on the realistic level, this does screw the Yankees since they now have no starting/BUC aside from Romine who really needed some AAA time.

Good thing we sent that Canadian bad influence Russell Martin packing.

Cervelli intent on joining the F.P. Santangelo All-Stars.

Wow.  The hits just keep on coming.

I am shocked, SHOCKED that Ryan Braun’s name is on a list of PED users. He is as clean as they come.

ARod, Melky, Cervello…Cano has to be on that list right? You guys joke about his name only coming out after a mega-deal, but with each passing day it becomes more and more likely…

I would be kind of disappointed if Cano turns out to be using, but it’s getting to the point that I am hoping Jeter is just to see the moral high ground erode a little bit more. (How many sports writers can dance on the head of a pin?)

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