Scott Hairston projects a couple of runs better offensively, but he also has a three year age advantage. I have no idea if the Yankees are considering Hairston.

The last CAIRO has Hairston at a .310 wOBA and Jones at .326.  Is that projecting Jones as a CWS and Hairston a Padre?  And what I’m quoting would be if you projected them in DNYS?  Or something else (new unpublished CAIRO, me being illiterate)?

Thames projects to a .327 wOBA, so whichever way it looks like he is slightly better offensive than Jones, but Jones doesn’t require us to hide our eyes in the field.  If Jones (or Hairston) were signed to a reasonable deal, this is a good thing, regardless of if Gardner continues to outperform his projections, or if “post Kevin Long adjustment” Granderson is the real deal.

Hairston seems even more preferable to me than the numerical advantage he seemingly has. I’m not sure if the rumors about Jones being a lazy slug are true, but I kinda don’t want to find out. I guess there is a lot of ceiling there also, so maybe that should be considered.

I’m not sure if the rumors about Jones being a lazy slug are true, but I kinda don’t want to find out.

True, but the counter is he matured from that (evidenced by working to lose weight and get back in shape) and is now a better person.  Which may or not be true.  I’m not sure if Hairston has found a way to get over being old

One or the other, they’ll improve the team; whichever we get, we’ll be complaining we didn’t get the other by mid-season!

I prefer Damon or Manny because either would provide a hedge against a further offensive decline by Posada.

Seems like the relevant comparison to Jones isn’t Gardner or Grandy but to whatever 4th-5th OFs the Yankees would sign instead of Jones.  I mean, they’re going to sign one of them, regardless.

Quick question:  Are park factors for individual players based on handedness?  IOW, when projecting how a player will do in DNYS, are there separate park factors that apply to LHs hitters vs. RH hitters, or are they all aggregated?

I prefer Damon or Manny because either would provide a hedge against a further offensive decline by Posada.

Part of the issue is that Damon - and I’d guess Manny too - still look at themselves as starters.  Certainly Jones - and likely Hairston - understand they’re bench players.  So how long do you wait for Damon/Manny to realize they aren’t going to be starters anywhere else?  Do you lose out on Jones/Hairston, AND potentially Manny/Damon too?

Also, they DO have one extra spot, assuming they stick with 12 pitchers on the roster.  BUC is Cervelli, BUI (for now) is Pena/Nunez.  Jones/Hairston is 4th OF.  At that point, they could STILL sign one of Damon/Manny to be 5th OF/bat off bench/BUDH if Posada can’t go.  Or instead go for a super-utility, who can play some OF, some 3B, and hit a little.

Seems like the relevant comparison to Jones isn’t Gardner or Grandy but to whatever 4th-5th OFs the Yankees would sign instead of Jones.  I mean, they’re going to sign one of them, regardless.

Pretty sure he was just trying to determine what role Jones would fill on the team, and how valueable he would be in that role?  That could of course differ from just looking at 1.6 WAR as what he contributes.  After that you can compare him to other players in the same way - for example, Hairston maybe has a reverse-split* and may be more valueable to a generic team, but specifically to the Yankees would be worth less.

I doubt he does, just for example.

Do you lose out on Jones/Hairston, AND potentially Manny/Damon too?

I’m not directly comparing them, but iirc, Cashman offered the same rationale for the timing of the Randy Winn signing last off-season.

I don’t think Jones is indispensable, and the Yankees have more payroll flexibility for their bench than is usually the case, so I would wait.

Who is that super-utility guy?

Oh man, Rays sign Farnsworth.

Who is that super-utility guy?

I really like Jerry Hairston because he can play all the infield positions and play some OF. I think I’ve also heard that he can even be an emergency catcher. Good baserunner with speed, etc.

Now Farnsworth will annihilate NY in 2011.  Or the first half of 2011, anyway.

Mientkiewicz

WRONG!!!
...sorry, that was the macro kicking in.

I just see two with the only upside being mediocrity, while JD’s upside is actually good performance.

hear, hear.

[30] I guess to me signing a 4th starter to a one-year deal, mediocrity is all you’re looking for.  I think they could use a bridge between where they are now, and having the young starters be ready to assume prominent roles in the rotation.  Having a 2 +/-.5 WAR pitcher give 180+ IP for one year is the bridge.

This would make sense if the performance of a Garcia were a guarantee.  But besides the lack of significant upside, you still have the very real risk of significant downside.  For the bridge to be meaningful, that total package would have to be somehow project as a promise of more stable and acceptable mediocrity than the exoectable performance of a rather substantial stable of prospects.  Why would we think this to be the case with Garcia?

I prefer Damon or Manny because either would provide a hedge against a further offensive decline by Posada.

I was thinking about this as well when I was wondering if 3 shut down relievers and their relative short term financial commitment vice a #2/#3 and their usual bloated contracts was an interesting ‘outside the box’ idea.

With Posada, Martin and Montero, the Yankees are in a situation to possibly steal .5-1 WAR by never having Cervelli hit (although I admittedly am down on him despite being shown that he showed a decent offensive capability at AA. But still, he’s not in the same class as the other 3.) The guys just rotate between DH and C, but 2 of the 3 are always in the line up.

The thing about Posada (and something I think contributes to him being underrated) is that he has a pretty close to even platoon split as a switch hitter. The bad thing then for 2011 is that it’s not like you could potentially leverage him into a higher wOBA.  He’s slightly better as a righty, so maybe that means Damon makes more sense than Ramirez.

From the previous thread:

[42] [30] I guess to me signing a 4th starter to a one-year deal, mediocrity is all you’re looking for. 

I agree, it’s just the ‘getting buried’ issue I was worried about. I mean, how many times have we talked about Ivan Nova and his potential to hold down the spot? If Cashman had picked up a retread late last year, we wouldn’t have that MLB data on Nova. I’d just rather get some info on our in house options, even if it means .2-.4 more RA.

You know - it seems like an easy way to mitigate this is to give these guys NRI’s or MiLB deals. If there are indications that they can be successful while they are in ST or SWB, it reduces the risk that we waste 3 starts on, say, Garcia proving to us that he is done that could have gone to David Phelps, for example.

SG- Out of curiosity and if you have time, would the Yankees project in 2011 if they went could somehow come up with:

Chamberlain 210 IP
Pettitte (whatever IP he would project for or what you think is reasonable)
Jon Rauch replacing Chamberlain’s RP IP

The last CAIRO has Hairston at a .310 wOBA and Jones at .326.  Is that projecting Jones as a CWS and Hairston a Padre?  And what I’m quoting would be if you projected them in DNYS?  Or something else (new unpublished CAIRO, me being illiterate)?

Yeah, it’s park.  The Jones projection in this entry is for Jones as a Yankee, and the Hairston projection on the spreadsheet still has him in San Diego.  As a Yankee Hairston’s baseline projection would be .250/.313/.449, .328 wOBA.

Seems like the relevant comparison to Jones isn’t Gardner or Grandy but to whatever 4th-5th OFs the Yankees would sign instead of Jones.  I mean, they’re going to sign one of them, regardless.

Right, I should have also mentioned that Jones would also be replacing someone like Kevin Russo and/or Colin Curtis on the bench, which makes him more valuable.  Maybe closer to a full win, and thusly worth something between $4-5M.

Quick question:  Are park factors for individual players based on handedness?  IOW, when projecting how a player will do in DNYS, are there separate park factors that apply to LHs hitters vs. RH hitters, or are they all aggregated?

Yeah, parks have different factors for RH/LH batters so the projections do try to account for that.  However, we never know exactly how a park will impact a specific player, or if they will change their approach to take advantage of a different park.  A lefty batter moving to Fenway may want to tailor his swing to go towards LF, since they can get a bunch of disgracefully cheap doubles off the wall.  Similarly, a right-handed batter may try to go opposite field more in DNYS.

I’m now less-worried about the Rays in the East.

Ah, looks like some beat me too it.  But I have a link!

SG- Out of curiosity and if you have time, would the Yankees project in 2011 if they went could somehow come up with:

Chamberlain 210 IP
Pettitte (whatever IP he would project for or what you think is reasonable)
Jon Rauch replacing Chamberlain’s RP IP

210 IP for Joba is probably too high, but I’ll go with it.  Figuring Pettitte for 160 innings and Adding Rauch for 70 innings and removing some of the replacement level pitching adds about four wins, making the Yankees around a 93 win team.

If only it was an option.

[11] Yo, those are some big words you’re throwing out there!

Here’s the problem, if Pettitte doesn’t come back.  You want a guy showwho *should* be a 1-2 WAR pitcher, but is cheap, AND will sign a 1 year deal (or possibly year and option).  We also don’t want to trade anyone, unless it is a throw-away player like Russo or Curtis or something.  So, where do you find players like that at this point?  Guys w/ injury histories and a lot of risk to their projections.  Right?

Also, all of these players the problem looks to be more one of staying healthy, than one of pitching well.  When they’re healthy, they pitch well (or well-enough).  If they get hurt in June, I think the prospects will have had the time to further develop, and show us who is ready and who isn’t.  Or if none are ready, Yankees know they need to target a pitcher for the 2nd half.

Ideally of course Pettitte calls today and says he wants a final year, and all of this is moot.  But if not, I think getting a short term, cheap option helps the team get to the playoffs this year, but doesn’t block the prospects from developing further and contributing to future playoff runs.  Or if he is blocking them, it’s only because he’s healthy and pitching well.

[17] Thanks.

Dammit.

You know - it seems like an easy way to mitigate this is to give these guys NRI’s or MiLB deals. If there are indications that they can be successful while they are in ST or SWB, it reduces the risk that we waste 3 starts on, say, Garcia proving to us that he is done that could have gone to David Phelps, for example.

From the Yankees standpoint that’s best.  Unfortunately, the problem is the pitchers.  I’d imagine these guys can probably get guaranteed contracts somewhere, or at least get contracts where they are more likely to be on the roster out of ST.

Also, Cashman DID pick up retreads last year.  Namely, Moseley.  And you could certainly argue if they didn’t get Moseley in AAA early in the year and buy his contract later, we would have had a chance to view Phelps in the big leagues.  And if Phelps had 7 or 8 solid starts we wouldn’t be worried about getting a starter now.

It’s a fine line between giving young players a chance in the bigs to maximize your chances over the long haul, and bringing in the veterans to maximize your chances in the current year.  I don’t think the post-Torre Yankees will bury a deserving pitcher.  At least one not named Joba.

From the Yankees standpoint that’s best.  Unfortunately, the problem is the pitchers.  I’d imagine these guys can probably get guaranteed contracts somewhere, or at least get contracts where they are more likely to be on the roster out of ST.

Yeah, there are plenty of teams that are willing to gamble on a player working back from injury who’s been successful in the past.  For the players, it makes sense to go to either a team that is very thin at your position so you get a good chance to show that you’re healthy, or to a team that offers the most money in case you’re actually finished and not likely to get another shot.

So there’s very little incentive to go with a team as an NRI or on a minor league deal.  Most of these guys will find someone who will give them a guaranteed contract.

So there’s very little incentive to go with a team as an NRI or on a minor league deal.  Most of these guys will find someone who will give them a guaranteed contract.

One option of course is to wait it out, and hope that when the music stops first week in February, one of these guys is left w/o a chair.  Then he may have no choice but to accept an NRI, b/c his best chance of being on a 25 man roster in April is to be in camp from day 1.  I’m not a big fan of that, but…it is an option.

So there’s very little incentive to go with a team as an NRI or on a minor league deal.  Most of these guys will find someone who will give them a guaranteed contract.

I guess for the Yankees, though, they can consider NRI/MiLB deals essentially equivalent to MLB deals from a money standpoint, because they can just cut the guy if they want. I’m just really interested in see Phelps and Noesi instead of the retread of the week, unless it’s someone who is quality. That’s sort of why I was drawing my line between Duchscherer and Francis/Garcia. To be fair, though, Francis and Garcia are much better than someone like Jeremy Bonderman.

[22] I’m not as well versed in some of these guys as other, but aren’t some of them also not potentially ready for ST/opening day?  Might make an NRI a more likely situation.

Mike… but given the chances of injury that prevents them from playing and of injury that prevents them from playing well, it seems to me that you’ve lost the “safety net” quality that makes you want them in the first place.
Garcia could pitch to his expectation, or worse, because he’s not quite healthy.
[Good prospect] could pitch to his projections, or worse, because that sometimes happens.
In both cases, you have other prospects behind them.  And in the second case, you have potential upside added to the equation.
Given that, it seems to me that a guy like that brings nothing to the team that the prospects don’t bring.
If they only had one feasible prospect, then he’d bring something like having another decent prospect or two to the table, only without the upside, which would be worth something. But NYA isn’t in that situation.

I’m now less-worried about the Rays in the East.

Except if a bench-clearing brawl occurs.

[24] The three main guys we’re talking about anyway (Garcia, Francis, Duchsherer), I believe are currently healthy and ready to go.  A guy like Prior, they were able to get on a MiLB deal because he isn’t.

[27] I thought Prior was ready and hopes to win a job as a reliever, but accepted a mL deal because he has been out of the game for so long.

Yeah, I’m not sure anyone, even Prior, thinks he’s going to be a starter again.

If he gets back on the mound and pitches well, it should be a nice, feel good subplot for the season.

“(Garcia, Francis, Duchsherer)”

Sort of a gutshot draw there, but maybe we can get an Evans for the straight.

[30]  A feel good subplot for the season would be if I inherited a lot of money from a rich relative I’d never heard of, but then it seemed like there was a supervening will leaving the money to my no-good brother in law, but then it turned out he forged it and went to jail instead and in the meantime the value of the estate doubled due to prudent (pre-death) investing by the relative, and I used some of the money to buy seats to watch the Yankees sweep the Cardinals, and Tony LaRussa’s head exploded and spewed green ichor all over the visitor’s clubhouse.  And I bought a private jet.

Yes, that would be a feel-good subplot.

Black Swan was awesome

[32] There we go. Think big.

A feel good subplot for the season would be if I inherited a lot of money from a rich relative I’d never heard of

I’ve been sending you emails every other week for a year now about claiming your inheritance. You never respond! All we need is your bank account numbers and a $5000 transaction fee and the millions will be yours.

There’s a Nigerian prince you should meet….

Sounds like Pettitte wants to pull a Clemens and return mid-season.

Me no like.

Sounds like Pettitte wants to pull a Clemens and return mid-season.

“OH MY GOODNESS GRACIOUS!”

Sounds like that was a bit premature. Nothings changed as far as I can tell, which is in and of itself not the best thing.

Assuming Jones winds up on the Yankees, anyone think there is someone on the team who can get to Jones? I mean, get him motivated? Seems to me he has just become a fat, lazy rich guy.  Not that I begrudge him… wealth changes a man, especially one who came up poor.  I wonder if there is someone one the team who can reach him… or am I way off on this?

Also, probably old news, but the Rays got Farns’d!!! 3+ million?

Holy Cow!

This just in from the Department of People who should thurmanated with extreme prejudice.
The most reverend fred phelps. Why? Please stfu and die.
I usually insulate myself from dudes like this. I never heard of this dewbag until today. At least he seems to hate everyone.  This guy is too frigging much.
Mo…. take him please.
So… sure gotta lot of snow here. Mrs. otf made fried calamari and my nieghbors kid has more left in the tank than Andruw Jones.
Oh yeah. Shoveling snow for 2 hours makes your body feel good.
Yours not mine.

“I never heard of this dewbag until today.”

Just imagine the worst possible and you’ll be sort of half-way there.  Picketing the funeral of a murdered nine-year-old is just normal for him.  The one good thing is that lots of people organize now to protect funerals from his church.

[43] Yeah RF. I just wasted 20 minutes of my life reading about his assholiness.
My local ABC has just announced that one Andrew Pettite is calling it a career.

Sorry, the sports anchor said it was “speculation regarding Pettites status”

Those people make slime seem appealing.

With regard to baseball:

Cashman backed off comment he didn’t believe pettitte would “start’’ (year). im hearing pettitte is working out. my guess: he pitches in ‘11

SI_JonHeyman
Jon Heyman

Way back when I worked on “The Awful Truth” we did a piece where we sent a “Sodomobile” around the country to break anti-gay sex laws in a sort of civil-disobedience piece.  Michael Moore also went with it to visit Fred Phelps, but perhaps predictably he was not fazed by it at all.  For a man who sees sodomy behind the deaths of military servicepeople, an RV full of buggering sodomites must seem like the same old same old.  I opposed giving the guy screen time, but if I recall Michael wanted to make an issue out of the fact that they’d protested Matthew Shepard’s funeral.  Horrible but it seems awfully tame now by comparison.

However the thing to remember about Phelps is that he’s a lunatic.  If you are worked up about discrimination against gay people there are a lot better ways to focus your energies than on a man who is the functional equivalent of a urine-stained bum who rants about blacks, or Jews.  You don’t see the NAACP or the ADL making an issue out of the bum.  But the news media like Phelps and you can see why.

But the news media like Phelps and you can see why.

The news media like freak shows. It’s an extension of the newspaper aphorism: “If it bleeds, it leads.”

Its corrosive effects can be seem in a numerous areas, but I’m not going there.

As crazy as Phelps but not as harmful a woman on CNN who claimed the birds dropped from the sky because DADT passed.

47 The Awful Truth was a funny,  cool show.  Did you ever work on any of MMs films?  Or was it the Cary Grant,  Irene Dunne film of the same name you worked on?

I really like Jerry Hairston, Jr. because he can play all the infield positions and play some OF

Plus, the whole removing of the curse thing.

Rays sign Farnsworth

That means when we plat them we only have to be within 4 runs or less by the 7th and it’s in the bag. Bwahahahaha.

Seems to me what makes Jones more attractive over Damon is that you can actually put him in the field if necessary. What makes him more attractive over Manny is a marginally lower wDI (weighteded doucher index).

Jones is (allegedly) a few years younger than Manny. Allegedly.

Wouldn’t mind seeing what miracles Long can perform with Jones though. Maybe he turns him back in 2005-2006 Jones.

Also, signing Jones won’t cost a draft pick, which is nice. Don’t want to lose out on the chance to snatch up Nick Fairley. He will immediately impact their interior defense.

You folks might get a kick out of my latest Sports Legend Revealed at the LA Times, it’s a bit about how an 18-year-old bookkeeper who never played organized ball more or less lucked into a career that ultimately led to him making the Hall of Fame.

Fascinating stuff.

You can check it out here.

[28 & 29] I hadn’t heard anything about that, just that the Yankees had him on a MiLB deal and his FB looked like it was returning to the low-90’s.

Seems to me he has just become a fat, lazy rich guy.

My understanding of it is he *did* become a fat, lazy, rich guy.  But a few years ago he took Dean Wermer’s message to heart - Fat, drunk, and stupid is no way to live.  So he shaped up and lost a lot of the excess weight and got back to being a major-league caliber player.  If you look at some of his numbers, they back that up.  wOBA past four years .314, .234, .338, .364.  In fact, his wOBA last year would fit right into his 1998-2006 years.  His defense isn’t back to that time, but it’s still fine.

Any projection system that takes the last 3 or 4 years into account will be heavily weighted down by that .234.  There’s a chance though years n-2 and n-3 were blips, and aren’t indicative of his true-talent.  He may in fact be closer to a .350 wOBA, which with average defense is an average (or better) corner OF.  There’s some risk to finding that out, but if the risk is giving a $2-$3M contract and 300PA…seems worth it.

[54] Nice article.  I wonder if there are any openings for computer programmers in the NY-Penn league…

It’s time for someone to put their foot down. And that foot is me.

[25] I started replying to this yesterday, but had to leave and never finished.  But since this thread is still active and we’re going to keep talking about it AT LEAST until a pitcher is signed (or spring training starts)...My main thinking goes like this:

1) The Yankees have 4 minor-league (including Nova) starters who I think they can expect to be able to contribute at some point this year.  That would be Nova, Phelps, Noesi, and Brackman.  Yes, they have more behind them (Betances, Stoneburner, Warren, and others).  But those are starting in AA, so I’m not sure if you should count on them.

2) Of those 4, IMHO, I think only 2 are ready RIGHT NOW - Nova and Phelps.  Even Phelps *could* use some more time in the minors.  Definitely Brackman and Noesi I think 3 months in AAA will be better for their development than 3 months in NYC.

3) Due to AJ’s issues, the Yankees could need 3 starters this year, as early as May. 

4) Even with that, there is additional risk - particularly with the younger pitchers - of setbacks.  Whether getting hurt or a period of adjustment to the new level.

5) So with all that, I think the Yankees could need 3 starters early on.  I only think 2 rookies will be ready early on.  But even then, if one gets hurt, and one isn’t performing, now you’re calling someone from AA.  Who will likely be even LESS ready.

In conclusion, adding the one starter is a matter of depth.  Depth can be added at any point in the chain - adding Cliff Lee is depth by pushing everyone (except CC down).  Adding Bartolo Colon is depth (though 6 guys in front of him need to fail first).  Adding depth at top isn’t really an option.  Adding depth at the back only helps a little, and if they are getting down to their 12th starter anyway, well…so add the depth in the middle.  Buy some time for the kids to develop further, improve the team out of the gate, and have some extra depth as the season goes on.

Developing young pitchers isn’t easy.  Developing young pitchers WHILE trying to win a pennant is even harder.  IMHO, getting ONE middling veteran will help win the pennant, while not impeding the development of the pitchers.  And may actually help it.

[58] This.

It’s not like the Yankees are signing a Jose Lima-esque (RIP) pitcher for the number five spot in the rotation and keeping a Phil Hughes-esque pitcher in AAA.