.226/.281/.384 isn’t even close to the 20% level of .242/.343/.429.

What do you expect from a 42-year-old first-baseman type?
Wait, what?
 
But seriously, this must be a really unusually awful decline curve.  I wonder HOW unusually awful.  Starting with the selective endpoint of his signing and his age & performance up to that point.

I think this team is better than they’ve played so far, but I don’t think they’re as good as I thought they were at the start of the season.

SG, I love you and all (don’t take that the wrong way), but does it ever happen that the team plays worse than predicted and we think it’s better than predicted?  Of course they now appear worse than predicted!
At this point, though, the big question is: how predictive is playing to be worse than predicted?
One would imagine that the hitting with RISP isn’t predictive, right? Expect it to veer towards the prediction, the norm?

I still think that they’re going to get better - in the summer months, a couple of the long fly balls will carry the extra ten feet and get out of the park. Not sure if that bodes well for the cold fall postseason evenings, but I think the offense will slightly revert to normal.

The pitching? That’s a little worrisome. I have no confidence that Soriano will be anything more than he is - occasionally good with a couple of baserunners per inning. Nova is still developing, Pettitte is 40, and Kuroda is adjusting from the NL West to the AL East. I think it’s good enough, but it’s not the “best in the league” that it looked in the winter.

Still will be in the playoffs. I’m not a Baltimore believer.

SG, I love you and all (don’t take that the wrong way), but does it ever happen that the team plays worse than predicted and we think it’s better than predicted?

Sure.  If their component stats indicate that they’ve been unlucky.  Or if A-Rod was smoking balls with power regularly that just happened to be caught.  Or if Teixeira wasn’t hitting weak-grounders and infield flies all the time.  Or if CC’s velocity wasn’t down by 1.7 mph. Etc.,

Give me a minute and I’ll figure out the batting runs for and against to see to what degree they’ve been unlucky, if they have.

Arod and Tex need to go to Ortiz’s house for Tacos with the special sauce.

The Yankees have scored 207 runs and allowed 189 for a Pythagenpat winning percentage of .518.  Based on their component stats they should have scored 207 runs and allowed 206 for a Pythagenpat winning percentage of .502. 

So they’re apparently scoring more often in non-RISP situations than you’d expect and the net is their offense has scored about as much as you’d expect.  But they’ve actually been lucky to have only allowed 189 runs and have played more like the .500 team that they currently are.

Here’s the whole AL using component runs instead of actual runs.

team_w-l
TEX_29.3-12.7
TBR_23.0-19.0
CHW_22.6-19.4
BOS_21.9-19.1
CLE_21.8-19.2
BAL_22.4-19.6
TOR_21.7-20.3
NYY_20.6-20.4
LAA_20.3-21.7
DET_19.7-21.3
SEA_19.0-24.0
KCR_17.6-22.4
OAK_18.2-23.8
MIN_15.2-25.8

In the off season I was urging Cash to trade Tex for Adam Dunn but did he listen?

Maybe I’m being unrealistic, but I’m still pretty optimistic about this team.  They’ve played badly but are still fairly close to the top of the division (ignoring the Orioles, which I will continue to do until August).

I’ve seen too many Yankee teams that start mediocrely (is that a word?) and turn it on after May to think this is 1965 redux.  I’m still a believer in ARod and Tex and think they will return to usefulness soon.  Especially ARod, who is a historically great talent that I can’t see staying at his current powerless level for long.

Or ... maybe I’m just being unrealistic.

I don’t know if ARod has anything left in the tank.  He’s only playing 3B 2/3s of the time and DHing or resting the other days.  He still has a decent command of the plate, but without the power - even a high .400s - he’s not much of an offensive force.  His OBP/SLG right now is what I was optimistic Gardner could do for a few seasons.  I do remain optimistic that he can get hot for a few months and reach 20-30 HRs - but I can also see the Yankees paying an obscene amount of money for a .400 SLG% for the next four years.

Teixeira is cooked, apparently.  I’m not sure if I could write a compelling argument that he isn’t without relying on “he just can’t be, he’ll turn it around!”

Cano is a terrific hitter, but he’s prone to disappearing for long stretches (and prone to being otherworldly for stretches, too).

Iguana can’t stay this hot.

I’m not sure what Andruw Jones is doing on this team - he can’t pinch-run/steal bases, he hasn’t been particularly good offensively, and his defense ain’t what it used to be.

Unfortunately, the Yankees don’t have a pile of younger prospects to slot while they ship the older expensive vets off for single A projects.

I wouldn’t expect guys in their early-to-mid thirties to suddenly decline, except that I watched Bernie’s bat simply disappear.  For 8 years you could pencil a .900 OPS out of the CF position and then one day it was gone.

A-Rod is 36 - at this point in a hitter’s career, it seems like it’s a coin flip as to whether they age gracefully or drop off a cliff.

I tried to become an A’s fan but when I switched my favorite team to Athletics, I didn’t get an A’s symbol next to my name.

What do we make out of Nova?  Clearly an ML pitcher, and the strikeouts were incredible, yet the results so far are more like fringy #5 than solid 3/4, certainly not the #2 of the more starry-eyed optimists.  Mike K, I’m not looking at you, but I’m thinking about you.

[11] That’s true for most players, but usually not for inner circle hall of famers. The only thing I can think is that his injury history of the last few years took more of a toll than we thought. It may just be that even though he’s healthy now, his body just isn’t what it used to be.

[12] What do we make out of Nova?

Young pitcher figuring it out? I get the feeling that we’re all looking for a “Oh, this guy, he’s now a good young player that we like” and then he’s good/great forever and never steps back in his development. Hughes similarly, except on a much longer and frustrating path.

I wouldn’t expect guys in their early-to-mid thirties to suddenly decline, except that I watched Bernie’s bat simply disappear. 

Bernie’s knee injury in 2003 seems like the primary reason his bat disappeared.  He was hitting .286/.397/.457 when he went on the DL and hit .248/.346/.381 after his return.

The only thing I can think is that his injury history of the last few years took more of a toll than we thought. It may just be that even though he’s healthy now, his body just isn’t what it used to be.

Yeah, this is what I think.  I am not someone who pays really close attention to mechanics but I wonder if he’s not getting as much out of hips in his swing now as he used to.

Teix will never be what he once was.  That said, he’ll be better than he’s been this year.  He has, throughout his career, sucked through the first 1 1/2 months consistently enough for it to be expected.  I think he’ll post 60 or so XBH each of the next few years along with an average in the .230 - .250 range with an OBP .100 points higher or so. EDIT: so long as he’s healthy

Regarding A-Rod’s long fly ball yesterday, he hit it directly into the gap between the left field seats and the bandstand, the wind was blowing directly in there.  I think a bit to the left or the right, and the ball’s out.  Not that I expect A-Rod to do much this year, but again, like Teix, I expect him to be better than he has been.

I’m definitely not writing off the season at this point…it’s far too early for that.  But they do need to get Gardner and Robertson back, and they need for some balls to start dropping in with RISP at some point if they want to turn it around.  Regardless, there is little joy watching them play right now.

I think this season is really a last gasp; even if they make it (and I am about 40/60 against), it will be 1964. What is on the horizon for 2013-2014? An older Arod/Jeter/Tex; no free agent signings since they want to stay under the cap in 2014; and other than a 28 year old that has ripped thru the minors, nothing in the hitting dept that will show up until 2015 or later. Maybe all the young pitching pans out and they will win lots of 1-0 games?

Rooting for the Nats is fun though. And against the Red Sox.

The offense I’m not worried about.  A-Rod and Teix might not be what was expected but Cano and Granderson are still big bats in the lineup.  The rest is fine.

The bullpen I’m not worried about.  As long as Robertson is back relatively soon they are still a pretty good bullpen.

It’s the starting pitching that (as always) worries me. 

This season looks like a 2010 Redux.  The pitching was supposed to be dominant and a strength but by the end of the year they were struggling to fill a playoff rotation.

If it’s a result of the hip injuries, the .550 - .625 SLG A-Rod could be gone.  And that’s a pretty big problem when he’s eating up that much salary space and can’t play in the field full-time.  But at least he’s not a complete offensive black hole - unlike a guy whose name rhymes with Mark Teixeira.

Nova providing 2-3 WAR for peanuts isn’t a problem.  Except that the Yankees don’t have anyone else stepping up for those #2 & #3 spots in the rotation.

.500 teams aren’t much fun.  You can’t dream about a pile of high draft picks and blue chippers moving through the system and the team doesn’t likely have the talent to make a deep run in playoffs even if they make it there (thanks, Bud!).

Me and my brother had the talk yesterday. Reminded each other to enjoy the Sunday afternoon season tickets even if the Yankees are no longer a contender. Sigh. START HITTING YOU… sigh…

Remember when Jeter was hitting .400? 

.293/.338/.373 in May.

Is it wrong that I root for rain?  A deep, cleansing rain?

I was looking forward to today’s off day until I realized it wasn’t an off day.  So yes, rain please.

[21] Remember when Jeter was hitting .400? 

.293/.338/.373 in May

Told ya so

[21], [24]

If that’s what a bad month looks like for Jeter this season, he’s gonna end up just fine.

If that’s what he does the rest of the way, meh.

[25] FWIW, I think that is the real 2012 Jeter.

[26] - Why?  It’s not like we are talking about Jeter being good as a SSS anymore.  Over the last 5 months of his career this two week stretch is more the outlier than the norm.  He is about to turn 38 so it’s not outlandish, but why were you so willing to jump on a 8 game stretch after 4.5 months and call Jeter a pumpkin again?

[27] I didn’t call him a pumpkin - I simply observed that he had been slapping groundballs into the dirt for the past 2 weeks.

“SSS” is thrown around with such frequency and it’s misunderstood. A sample that is statistically insignificant in size is not automatically meaningless, it’s just not necessarily meaningful. It can be meaningful. When I watch Jeter, he looks bad at the plate - he’s not staying back, he has a dominant back arm that drives his hands ahead of his hips to the point of contact instead of his hands pulling his hips through the zone like he was doing most recently when he was hitting the ball hard.

As for why I think .300/.350/.400 is the real Jeter.. I don’t know, just a hunch? 2 weeks good, 5 months bad, 1.5 seasons bad is the immediate history. Certainly room to argue.